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Let's Be Fair That Andy Reid 4th Down Call was bad one

Essex : 1/18/2021 8:23 am
If he punts there, the chances they go 80 or 90 yards with less than a minute left and no timeouts is practically zero. To make that call with a backup QB and possibly cut the field in half for the Browns was a really, really bad move, imo. The risk was nowhere near the reward. I am pretty sure its a bad call with Mahomes in the game, let alone Henne. I know we grade these things on outcome, but I keep thinking about that play and if that did not work and the Browns scored, he would be kicking himself over and over of letting an almost automatic win get away from him.
Essex, I am right there with you.  
johnnyb : 1/18/2021 8:27 am : link
Nothing to add. I would have punted and challenged Baker to go 80 or more yards to win the game. I was shocked the ball was snapped and so was Romo. Ballsy call that could have backfired.
I disagree 100%  
GiantsRage2007 : 1/18/2021 8:29 am : link
You make a call to win the game.

It's the call that the Browns didn't make on 4th down with 4 min left and gave the ball back to the Chiefs, which IMO was a mistake.

Put me on the opposite side of this one.
They had..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/18/2021 8:30 am : link
to have a certain tell that if the Browns were out of position, it was a certain conversion.

Nobody thought they'd snap it, which is probably the main reason it worked
There's a certain level of balls there  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/18/2021 8:35 am : link
They ran that play to win the game vs. Miami, so it must have been let's see how Cleveland lines up and take the delay if it doesn't look right.

Still massive cajones and as others said, the call Stefanski didn't make at 4 minutes.
FMiC nailed it  
Marty in Albany : 1/18/2021 8:35 am : link
Smart, gutsy call. It does not work unless your team is well prepared.
They did the same play in Miami...  
bw in dc : 1/18/2021 8:39 am : link
And I believe in the same down and distance. So Reid had tipped his hand.

I agree the smarter play is punting. But because of one key difference: Henne.

Trusting Henne to execute that play was unbelievable.
RE: They did the same play in Miami...  
Essex : 1/18/2021 8:44 am : link
In comment 15126678 bw in dc said:
Quote:
And I believe in the same down and distance. So Reid had tipped his hand.

I agree the smarter play is punting. But because of one key difference: Henne.

Trusting Henne to execute that play was unbelievable.

I still think its a bad call with Mahomes, but trust Henne to me is unreal. The issue is not that the play won't work, but that there can be a failure to execute from QB and receiver. So, if the execution is off you give the Browns a real chance (maybe 15-20% to score from midfield with no timeouts), you punt the game is 99% over.
RE: RE: They did the same play in Miami...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/18/2021 8:49 am : link
In comment 15126680 Essex said:
Quote:
In comment 15126678 bw in dc said:


Quote:


And I believe in the same down and distance. So Reid had tipped his hand.

I agree the smarter play is punting. But because of one key difference: Henne.

Trusting Henne to execute that play was unbelievable.


I still think its a bad call with Mahomes, but trust Henne to me is unreal. The issue is not that the play won't work, but that there can be a failure to execute from QB and receiver. So, if the execution is off you give the Browns a real chance (maybe 15-20% to score from midfield with no timeouts), you punt the game is 99% over.


The game wouldn't be 99% over. There was a little over a minute left. This season alone, there have been 9 last minute TD drives that started at the 20 or shorter. So while it is unlikely, the conversions have happened.
Yes, risky call. But something tells me Reid and his coaches  
LBH15 : 1/18/2021 8:53 am : link
have his team well prepared for these situational calls. But as mentioned the confidence to go for it with the backup brought it to another level.

Who cares?  
Gmen1982 : 1/18/2021 8:53 am : link
They won.
RE: RE: RE: They did the same play in Miami...  
Essex : 1/18/2021 8:55 am : link
In comment 15126683 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
In comment 15126680 Essex said:


Quote:


In comment 15126678 bw in dc said:


Quote:


And I believe in the same down and distance. So Reid had tipped his hand.

I agree the smarter play is punting. But because of one key difference: Henne.

Trusting Henne to execute that play was unbelievable.


I still think its a bad call with Mahomes, but trust Henne to me is unreal. The issue is not that the play won't work, but that there can be a failure to execute from QB and receiver. So, if the execution is off you give the Browns a real chance (maybe 15-20% to score from midfield with no timeouts), you punt the game is 99% over.



The game wouldn't be 99% over. There was a little over a minute left. This season alone, there have been 9 last minute TD drives that started at the 20 or shorter. So while it is unlikely, the conversions have happened.

I mean I will stand corrected, but there were 9 last minute TD drives with 0 timeouts. That would surprise me.
I agree that Reid’s call was a bad one but  
cosmicj : 1/18/2021 8:56 am : link
I thought the lack of playoff experience really hurt the Browns. The last time they held possession, you just have to execute on offense. It’s not like the Chiefs really held them. The Browns just made mistakes and ended up punting. They really should have had the game.
How many times have we grovelled about playing not to lose  
DC Gmen Fan : 1/18/2021 8:58 am : link
vs playing to win. And how many times have we said no way they'll drive to win the game just to have our hearts broken?

Gutsy call and it worked. End of story.
No, a good result in a risky situation does not retroactively  
cosmicj : 1/18/2021 9:02 am : link
Justify the decision. Write that on your wall and live by it.

Speaking of bad Reid decisionmaking, did you get a load of the time management at the end of the first half? Holy crap.
unless my math is off  
fkap : 1/18/2021 9:04 am : link
always a good possibility,

9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still...

Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors.

Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.
I don't know..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/18/2021 9:05 am : link
how many timeouts were left. I know one of them was the Hail Murray game with no timeouts left.
it's the difference between playing not to lose and playing to win  
Giantsfan79 : 1/18/2021 9:06 am : link
when you look at a situation do you think about what you lose if you fail, or what you gain if you succeed?
RE: unless my math is off  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/18/2021 9:07 am : link
In comment 15126700 fkap said:
Quote:
always a good possibility,

9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still...

Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors.

Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.


The math will be off because there are going to be several games where a team doesn't have a chance to drive with no timeouts left to win the game. The other team can just run the clock out, like the Giants did vs. the Cowboys.
RE: I agree that Reid’s call was a bad one but  
bw in dc : 1/18/2021 9:10 am : link
In comment 15126690 cosmicj said:
Quote:
I thought the lack of playoff experience really hurt the Browns. The last time they held possession, you just have to execute on offense. It’s not like the Chiefs really held them. The Browns just made mistakes and ended up punting. They really should have had the game.


Good point. The Browns missed a lot of golden opportunity yesterday.

I was just aghast at how Joe Woods had them playing defense almost that entire game in that ridiculous soft shell. And they continued to use it when Henne entered the game!

If I’m a Browns fan today, I want him replaced...
RE: RE: unless my math is off  
Essex : 1/18/2021 9:11 am : link
In comment 15126706 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
In comment 15126700 fkap said:


Quote:


always a good possibility,

9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still...

Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors.

Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.



The math will be off because there are going to be several games where a team doesn't have a chance to drive with no timeouts left to win the game. The other team can just run the clock out, like the Giants did vs. the Cowboys.

no timeouts is a critical factor for me at least. It just makes going down the field for a TD so much harder. I mean I am not so sure how much I like the Browns chances with 3 timeouts, but 80 yards and no timeouts is probably a better risk for me than not executing and giving them 50 yard with no timeouts. I also get the people who are saying you have to go win the game, because I would be the first person to criticize a coach who did not do that, but, by the same token, the gamble has to be worth the reward. You can say the same thing about going to win the game if the play was at the Chiefs 20 yards line?
It boils down..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/18/2021 9:15 am : link
to the fact that the Chiefs took a risk and it worked. I would have to believe they snapped the ball only because they were really confident Hill was uncovered. Let's say the play had a 93% chance of succeeding. And punting the ball was a 7% chance to lose - it sort of balances out.

Reid made the bold play and it worked. I don't think it was an egregious error if it was an error at all.
It was probably  
pjcas18 : 1/18/2021 9:20 am : link
the wrong call from an analytics standpoint, but I like when coaches give their offense a chance to execute.

Once you punt the ball you lose a lot of your control over the situation and coaches, as a group, love control.

And, Andy Reid is about to host his 6th home field conference championship game. 2nd to Belichick for the most and only coach to do it with two teams, I think he's earned the right to call a play like that.

it took balls  
UConn4523 : 1/18/2021 9:20 am : link
but its something that they completely fooled the Browns on, as close to automatic as it gets when taking into account the circumstances (some of the defenders were lazily standing up which Reid likely banked on to make it work).

Lesson learned from Stefanski and the rest of the coaches in the NFL, don't take any plays off especially when the game is on the line. I actually think more focus should be on Stefanski - he completely shit the bed in the 2nd half and not having his team ready for a play like this is a brutal way to end the season.
That's a good point..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/18/2021 9:24 am : link
about Stefanski. I'd love to know the analytics behind punting the ball on a 4th and 4 in KC territory with 4+ minutes left. He went for it earlier in a worse position and then opted to give the ball back to the KC offense.
Inches to go  
Grizz99 : 1/18/2021 9:26 am : link
I thought that if the ball was snapped it would be for a qb sneak.
Horrible call, I imagined The Giants throwing that pass to Even E.
RE: That's a good point..  
Essex : 1/18/2021 9:35 am : link
In comment 15126727 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
about Stefanski. I'd love to know the analytics behind punting the ball on a 4th and 4 in KC territory with 4+ minutes left. He went for it earlier in a worse position and then opted to give the ball back to the KC offense.

I can definitely get behind criticizing Stefanski. I would like to hear what he said first, but with Mahomes in the game punting there has to be the wrong move. With Henne in the game (which I assume he factored into it), you still have to go for it. Even the downside wasn't horrible if you think they won't get a first down, they kick a field goal and you are down 25-17 with a chance to tie. That was a no-brainer going for it.
How was it a bad call if it worked?  
Doubledeuce22 : 1/18/2021 9:35 am : link
Clearly was a great call.
Even if the Browns  
pjcas18 : 1/18/2021 9:36 am : link
were ready, I think that play still has a good chance to work.

4th and inches, you get in shot gun and have your backup QB throw a short pass to your speedy WR. I don't care if Stefanski is Ray Handley, that's tough to pin on the opposite head coach.

the worse play was letting Chad Henne scramble 13 and a half yards on 3rd and 14. That is the one that would keep me awake all night as a fan or Browns coach. Even stopping him at 4th and 2 or 3 I think the Chiefs punt.
RE: How was it a bad call if it worked?  
Essex : 1/18/2021 9:39 am : link
In comment 15126742 Doubledeuce22 said:
Quote:
Clearly was a great call.


When analyzing decisions, I think its best to analyze it at the time the decision maker made the decision. The outcome is always going to factor into it obviously, but if you run the play 100 times they won't complete it every time.
Good discussion  
crick n NC : 1/18/2021 9:43 am : link
Within this thread. I enjoyed reading it.
RE: RE: How was it a bad call if it worked?  
Doubledeuce22 : 1/18/2021 9:44 am : link
In comment 15126748 Essex said:
Quote:
In comment 15126742 Doubledeuce22 said:


Quote:


Clearly was a great call.



When analyzing decisions, I think its best to analyze it at the time the decision maker made the decision. The outcome is always going to factor into it obviously, but if you run the play 100 times they won't complete it every time.


You get a few inches and you win the game or you punt and potentially can lose the game. I think it took guts and that’s why Reid is one of the best coaches in football. He put his faith in his offense that they could pick up a few inches.
RE: They had..  
joeinpa : 1/18/2021 9:46 am : link
In comment 15126674 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
to have a certain tell that if the Browns were out of position, it was a certain conversion.

Nobody thought they'd snap it, which is probably the main reason it worked


This makes sense, in the moment even after success, I thought it was not the smart thing to do. But your scenario would make it a much higher probability of success w
RE: How was it a bad call if it worked?  
Saquads26 : 1/18/2021 9:47 am : link
In comment 15126742 Doubledeuce22 said:
Quote:
Clearly was a great call.


And if it didn't it would have been awful lol
I don't think it was a great call  
SLIM_ : 1/18/2021 9:49 am : link
Risk reward wasn't there but it worked.

Browns, coaching, at the end as others pointed out was pretty poor.

Have to go for it on 4th and 4. The downside is that you turn the ball over on downs. Whether you punt or lose on downs, you still need to stop the Cheifs. Stop the Chiefs and they kick a field goal and you still get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.

How the hell did they let Henne run at the end for that yardage was amazing. You would think that the Chiefs would play safe there - either a short dump off or a QB draw. It didn't take a genius to figure that out. You really need to force Henne at that point to take an incompletion. Have to rely on your defense a little. Sitting back was incredible.

I don't buy into all questionable decisions chalked up to  
UConn4523 : 1/18/2021 9:54 am : link
"its great if it works, terrible if it doesn't" - to me that's lazy.

When you have the best offense in the league, and the two best weapons are the best TE since prime Gronk and an All Pro who can accelerate and turn on dime, it makes sense. If it didn't work out I wouldn't be flaming at the call. This wasn't an anemic offense trying to steal a win, this was the best offense in football needing 6".

A large portion of fans bitch when coaches go with what the analytics say to do, and then also bitch when they go with their gut, the choice always seems to be wrong no matter what.
Some people DO  
dabru : 1/18/2021 10:10 am : link
while most sit back and discuss the what, why, how and ifs.

Let’s be fair, it’s a matter of opinion  
Mike from Ohio : 1/18/2021 10:13 am : link
and we, as fans, don’t have all the facts.

Do we know that they don’t run that play if they don’t get a certain defensive look that makes the conversion highly likely?

So no, it is not a bad call. Your opinion is that it is a bad call.
loved the call  
rasbutant : 1/18/2021 10:14 am : link
that is how you win at football. Believe in your team to gain 1 yard. Control your own destiny.

Think about it if you're on defense. You stop them short, 4th down you did your job, offense will get another shot to win the game. What's the worse thing you want to happen there? Them going for it on 4th down.

You have to be ready for the QB sneak, the RB dive, the RB going off tackle, the screen pass, any kind of pass really. And you can't false start! On offense, you have to believe in your offensive line. You can't have any free rushers and you can't have anyone blow a guy up. The qb has to be smart with the ball if its a pass....i feel like the Giants always go for the low percent completion deep sideline pass in this situation. I'm sure its because they are reading that they have single coverage...this is where play makers come into play...but still I'd rather see a high percentage pass, something the QB can see is open before throwing the ball then a 50/50 ball to a play maker.
According to stathead.com  
mcr2343 : 1/18/2021 10:29 am : link
Using the following criteria - From 2001 to 2020, any team vs. any team, started in the fourth quarter, drive started between 1:14 and 0:00 remaining, scoring margin at start of drive is between -8 and -4.

I don't see a filter for timeouts, so that probably has an impact.

This indicates 401 such drives, resulting in 31 touchdowns, or 7.7%.

All outcomes

End of Game 189 47.1%
Interception 96 23.9%
Fumble 48 12.0%
Downs 34 8.5%
Touchdown 31 7.7%
Safety 2 .5%
Fumble, Safety 1 .2%
All Turnovers 144 35.9%
All Scores 31 7.
I have to believe that if the offense didn't get the D look they  
PatersonPlank : 1/18/2021 10:31 am : link
wanted they would have called timeout and punted. At least that is my theory. I can't believe they would just blindly go for it
It was  
greek13 : 1/18/2021 10:33 am : link
Ballsy and brilliant - henne can key clock run or snap depending on
Look - a players coach - a coach that plays to win - sign me up
- you guys keep having theoretical bad call discussions about things that
Worked - holy smokes
Some math  
AdamBrag : 1/18/2021 10:38 am : link
Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game.

If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time.

Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%.

If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time.
It was likely the right decision.
RE: Some math  
pjcas18 : 1/18/2021 10:57 am : link
In comment 15126802 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game.

If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time.

Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%.

If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time.
It was likely the right decision.


And don't think for a second Andy Reid didn't already know that the Browns were THE WORST team in the entire NFL on 4th down.
RE: According to stathead.com  
Essex : 1/18/2021 10:59 am : link
In comment 15126792 mcr2343 said:
Quote:
Using the following criteria - From 2001 to 2020, any team vs. any team, started in the fourth quarter, drive started between 1:14 and 0:00 remaining, scoring margin at start of drive is between -8 and -4.

I don't see a filter for timeouts, so that probably has an impact.

This indicates 401 such drives, resulting in 31 touchdowns, or 7.7%.

All outcomes

End of Game 189 47.1%
Interception 96 23.9%
Fumble 48 12.0%
Downs 34 8.5%
Touchdown 31 7.7%
Safety 2 .5%
Fumble, Safety 1 .2%
All Turnovers 144 35.9%
All Scores 31 7.


Did you put in the starting yard line being the 20? That is also a huge factor in this equation as well. Also, are the TDs necessarily offensive tds because we see (not often but not insignificantly either) a defensive TD.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 1/18/2021 10:59 am : link
Sort of call where he's hailed a genius if KC converts, a moron if Cleveland makes a stop. I would have punted considering the circumstances, but props to Reid for having the balls to make the right call & end the game.
I’m having a hard time believing that a scoring percentage  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 11:03 am : link
with 0 timeouts to go 80 yards is anything more than 1 percent. You literally need a Hail Mary. Going 50 yards from midfield with all the momentum of a stop there and that defense is probably a 50/50 proposition.


How are Browns going to go 80 yards when they can’t pass block long enough for big plays the Chiefs will certainly be sitting on. Reid is a great head coach, but he certainly has questionable in game decision making skills. They had zero timeouts. A Hail Mary from the 40 plus is guranteed to be needed.
RE: Some math  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 11:06 am : link
In comment 15126802 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game.

If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time.

Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%.

If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time.
It was likely the right decision.


If they punt they stop CLE something like over 99 percent. Your 90 percent is low even when the factors of no timeouts and starting deep are factored in.
The Chiefs were actually prepared for that play  
jeffusedtobeonwebtv : 1/18/2021 11:08 am : link
Scroll down a few paragraphs in this story:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/01/18/mmqb-divisional-round-chad-henne-chiefs-bills-packers-buccaneers

The play was picked by Henne. Also they took advantage of most teams line up in that situation and hope the defense jumps offsides. They counted on the Browns to relax.
.  
Banks : 1/18/2021 11:18 am : link
what's the conversion rate for 4th and inches? I have to figure that it is pretty high (like >75%). The play isn't what I expected on 4th and inches, but I agree with going for it.
Not sure how to reply above  
mcr2343 : 1/18/2021 11:18 am : link
But adding in starting inside own 25 - drops TD % to 4.3. That's pretty low. I'd say it goes down to 3% or so due to timeouts.

On another note - hail mary passes have been successful at a way higher rate than I expected. It's like 1 in every 12.

None of this accounts for possibility of blocked punt or bad snap on the punt.

I think it's probably in the 3-5% range that Cle would get a TD
Brilliant call  
Rick in Dallas : 1/18/2021 11:26 am : link
Browns were not expecting the Chiefs to snap the ball. They were relaxed not wanting to be called offside.
play the game to win....
RE: Not sure how to reply above  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 11:33 am : link
In comment 15126855 mcr2343 said:
Quote:
But adding in starting inside own 25 - drops TD % to 4.3. That's pretty low. I'd say it goes down to 3% or so due to timeouts.

On another note - hail mary passes have been successful at a way higher rate than I expected. It's like 1 in every 12.

None of this accounts for possibility of blocked punt or bad snap on the punt.

I think it's probably in the 3-5% range that Cle would get a TD


There is no way TD percentage is 4.3% when you start a drive inside the 25 with 1 minute left. Show me that stat. No way.

RE: Some math  
sb from NYT Forum : 1/18/2021 11:38 am : link
In comment 15126802 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game.

If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time.

Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%.

If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time.
It was likely the right decision.


Exactly. It's not like it would be a guaranteed win for Cleveland if the play didn't work. In fact they probably sill wouldn't.

Over half the field in a minute, needing a TD? Possible but unlikely.
Both teams yesterday, btw,...  
bw in dc : 1/18/2021 11:43 am : link
were a combined 5 for 5 on 4th down conversions.

Show me a team in the past that needed a TD with no timeouts go  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 11:44 am : link
90 yards for score? You need a Hail Mary which has a 1 in 12 shot, but what’s the percentages you even get to that point 25 percent?
I don’t think people understand what no timeouts means in that  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 11:47 am : link
situation. It’s absolutely huge and takes away so much. I’m not even sure anyone has successfully went 90 yards (which is likely outcome of punt) to score a TD with 1 minute left. It’s practically impossible.
Zekes alibi  
mcr2343 : 1/18/2021 11:47 am : link
You want more go do it yourself. but you know more than the stats so I guess since you said "No Way" you must be correct. Stathead.com - have at it genius
RE: Zekes alibi  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 11:49 am : link
In comment 15126889 mcr2343 said:
Quote:
You want more go do it yourself. but you know more than the stats so I guess since you said "No Way" you must be correct. Stathead.com - have at it genius


The parameter no timeouts is absolutely huge here and a massive variable missing.
I though it was the wrong call....  
BillKo : 1/18/2021 11:50 am : link
......I would have punted. But I am still old school. However, having said that, the NFL is changing.

I think the comments about the Chiefs lining and seeing what was offered (and the Browns thought they were faking IMO - even Romo pointed out their body posture IIRC) is correct...and Reid let it rip.

Andy Reid has always been an outstanding offensive coach and play designer. His issues in Philly were always his desire to throw the ball too much, and game/time management. In some ways, Reid was ahead of his time back then which didn't always translate. Particularly in big spots.

Now, the game resembles a video game more than ever. Formations, pace of the attack, style of passing/running,etc. And the issue of time management, while still important, is less of a factor because of how the game is played.

More than ever you see teams going for it on fourth down in spots that would have never happened 15 years ago. As an example, a team might punt trailing on 4th and 2 from their own 40 yard line late in the game, and get the ball back......but with precious little time due to blowing their timeouts earlier in the half. Today....no issue. The team simply goes for it now and never ends up punting.

I saw TB go for fourth and 1 at their own 30 on their third series simply because they didn't have a first down yet. And yesterday Reid's call..........never happens (or rarely) 15 years ago. The game has evolved that way.

The rest of the NFL has simply caught up to how Andy Reid wanted to coach all along.



None of us are operating from as much info as Reid...  
Milton : 1/18/2021 11:51 am : link
He was in a much better position to gauge the chances of that particular play against that particular defense. He was also in a better position to gauge the difference between having to prevent them from going 80 yards or having to go 53 yards in the time remaining with no timeouts. Not to mention things that can go wrong on a punt. There's a lot to be calculated without the help of a calculator

All that being said, I would've punted and in all probability, the result would've been victory. Hard to say which choice gives a better probability of success, but there's something to be said for...
...avoiding what can go wrong on a punt - ( New Window )
zeke  
mcr2343 : 1/18/2021 11:54 am : link
Obviously you're going to choose the 1 missing item and declare how important it is. I (and hopefully others) can't take anything you say seriously when your response is to simply say the stats aren't right because there's "No Way" then pick and choose.

Spend some time doing a bit of research and maybe your points will hold a tiny bit of validity but as it is you're just spouting opinion.

I'll say the likelihood of a punt failure is far more important than the timeouts. See - now my point is more valid because you can't prove it wrong.

Obviously they new they had something but execution fails and defensiv  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 11:55 am : link
players make plays. I mean we have people speculating a blocked punt or bad snap can happen which is highly unlikely, especially for good teams. 20 teams didn’t have a punt blocked this year.
RE: I don’t think people understand what no timeouts means in that  
bw in dc : 1/18/2021 11:57 am : link
In comment 15126887 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
situation. It’s absolutely huge and takes away so much. I’m not even sure anyone has successfully went 90 yards (which is likely outcome of punt) to score a TD with 1 minute left. It’s practically impossible.


I tend to agree. The Chiefs went for it with 1:14 on the clock. But the pulled the trigger with about 6 seconds left on the play-clock. So let's say they let the clock run out, take the 5 yard delay, and prepare to punt. The game time is probably at 1:08 before the punt.

I think a good punt will some take at least 8 seconds off the clock. And let's say the Browns have to field it at the 14. So they have to go 86 yards in 1 minute.

Mayfield has a pretty good arm, so the Browns have to get to the 50 to get a good throw for a Hail Mary. Hard to do the math on that possibility without data, but I could see the Browns pretty easily getting to the 50 in 50 seconds.

The question is can they get down the field and inside the 25 to get a crack or two at a throw(s) with a higher chance to complete.

But even then, it's tough to find any space in the endzone once the defense drops 8...
RE: zeke  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 11:58 am : link
In comment 15126896 mcr2343 said:
Quote:
Obviously you're going to choose the 1 missing item and declare how important it is. I (and hopefully others) can't take anything you say seriously when your response is to simply say the stats aren't right because there's "No Way" then pick and choose.

Spend some time doing a bit of research and maybe your points will hold a tiny bit of validity but as it is you're just spouting opinion.

I'll say the likelihood of a punt failure is far more important than the timeouts. See - now my point is more valid because you can't prove it wrong.


No timeouts is literally the most important variable there, including the extra 15 yards you decided to add. If you punt from midfield average starting field position is about the 10. The clock is the biggest issue here. No timeouts changes the calculus comepletly.
BW....I’m not sure it’s a 50/50 prop they even get to midfield  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 12:01 pm : link
there. They can take 3 plays over the middle but need to complete them all with no penalties.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an NFL team with no timeouts go about 90 yards for a score.

I had a Browns ML ticket to go with my parlay and I was happy they went for it. Still am. Gave me the best chance to win IMO.
Badly play but I liked it.  
mattlawson : 1/18/2021 12:02 pm : link
Wins the game and the way they threw the D off the scent was great. Element of surprise by the cadence and timing of the snap. The details made a ton of difference there
I’m not even sure it’s likely to get to midfield in that situation  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 12:04 pm : link
Chiefs defensive strength is against the pass and Browns are run first football team. They had some guy off the street pass protecting the blind side.
RE: They had..  
Mdgiantsfan : 1/18/2021 12:05 pm : link
In comment 15126674 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
to have a certain tell that if the Browns were out of position, it was a certain conversion.

Nobody thought they'd snap it, which is probably the main reason it worked


This is why I hated when the Giants repeatedly tried to draw the defense offsides and never even hinted that they may actually go for it. The fact that Romo was so adamant that they weren’t running a play was the cherry on top of a great sundae (play call). No one expected it and it worked to perfection!



you gotta give Reid credit  
mittenedman : 1/18/2021 12:07 pm : link
He always has another well-executed play in his back pocket. This time it's the "line up like you're going to draw them offsides, only really run the play" to ice a Playoff game.

no idea how he gets his team to execute as perfectly as they do. He's been like that since PHI.

The Giants on the other hand, don't get set on a fake FG, end up throwing a pass by a P to a double-covered Center. Execution, and it goes beyond Mahomes
RE: BW....I’m not sure it’s a 50/50 prop they even get to midfield  
bw in dc : 1/18/2021 12:08 pm : link
In comment 15126904 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
there. They can take 3 plays over the middle but need to complete them all with no penalties.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an NFL team with no timeouts go about 90 yards for a score.



I agree - again - that it's very unlikely.

But getting 36 yards - assuming they have the ball at the 14 to start - to midfield should be very much in reach with a minute left.

One pass out into the flat to Hunt/Chubb and they are getting 10+ and out of bounds.
its a great call unless Hill drops the pass.  
Victor in CT : 1/18/2021 12:11 pm : link
then its a disaster. See Giants at Eagles
I thought it was a great call.  
BH28 : 1/18/2021 12:21 pm : link
Never take the ball out of your hands and leave your fate in the opponents hand.

Worst decision was Cleveland punting with 4 minutes left and 1 timeout. Why would you ever punt there especially against the Chiefs O?

Worst case you stop them they kick a FG it's still a one score game. You don't stop them it's game over anyway.
I have watched the play at least a 20X now...  
bw in dc : 1/18/2021 12:39 pm : link
and it amazing how open Hill is. Henne had such an easy throw.

You would have thought it was 4th and 5 by the way Cleveland tried to cover it.
RE: I have watched the play at least a 20X now...  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/18/2021 12:42 pm : link
In comment 15126929 bw in dc said:
Quote:
and it amazing how open Hill is. Henne had such an easy throw.

You would have thought it was 4th and 5 by the way Cleveland tried to cover it.


It’s actually criminal when you see they ran that play before in same situation. I’m sure Reid will have something in his pocket now to work off this play for next time out.
RE: Inches to go  
SJGiant : 1/18/2021 12:45 pm : link
In comment 15126730 Grizz99 said:
Quote:
I thought that if the ball was snapped it would be for a qb sneak.
Horrible call, I imagined The Giants throwing that pass to Even E.


You should clarify this statement. The pass to Evan E would be for forty yards downfield.
I liked the call  
Go Terps : 1/18/2021 12:50 pm : link
Tyreek Hill is the toughest short area cover in the NFL, and Chad Henne is a 12 year pro. He wasn't being asked to make an exceptional play.

You have to trust your backups. They're on the team for a reason.

I'm reminded of Parcells using Rutledge on a QB sneak on 4th and 1, or David Tyree making critical 4th quarter catches in Super Bowls. These guys are on the roster...if you can't trust them to do their jobs then you've done a bad job building the roster.
And how could I forget Hostetler  
Go Terps : 1/18/2021 12:50 pm : link
.
RE: RE: I have watched the play at least a 20X now...  
bw in dc : 1/18/2021 1:18 pm : link
In comment 15126931 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 15126929 bw in dc said:


Quote:


and it amazing how open Hill is. Henne had such an easy throw.

You would have thought it was 4th and 5 by the way Cleveland tried to cover it.



It’s actually criminal when you see they ran that play before in same situation. I’m sure Reid will have something in his pocket now to work off this play for next time out.


Agreed. I believe I heard yesterday that the Cleveland coaching staff said they knew about the play - from the Miami film - and were "ready" for it.

Hard to really buy that after watching how they tried to defend it.

I conclude this - Cleveland relaxed thinking the Chiefs were simply going to have Henne run out of the play-clock and punt. Once they snapped it, Cleveland just wasn't ready...

Hey, kudos to the Chiefs for having some real brass balls. And trusting Henne.



It was not a bad call  
5BowlsSoon : 1/18/2021 1:18 pm : link
Andy Reid is special because he plays to win, not to be safe. He had a 4th and one and he has the best offense in football, even without Mahomes there is a greater chance of making the one yard than not. So many options to call a play to get that one yard.

Punting back to Cleveland gives them a chance to win. This way, now they have no chance to win.

Even if they didn’t make it, the chances of Cleveland going 50 yards to score a TD with one timeout left were less than 50%. Besides, the Cleveland offense was mediocre all game having only scored 17 points. Andy Reid I’m sure factored that in.

Bottom line....ANDY REID IS AN AWESOME COACH AND SHOWED WHY HE IS THE BEST WITH THAT CALL. They could have lost had he not made that call....having made it, they won.
RE: unless my math is off  
Matt M. : 1/18/2021 1:24 pm : link
In comment 15126700 fkap said:
Quote:
always a good possibility,

9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still...

Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors.

Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.
Not 100% accurate way of looking at it. This does emphasize that it is still unlikely. But, not every game every week required a TD drive with little time left at the end of the game. So, it doesn't apply to a lot of games.

I agree with you that it is still not highly probable, but it is less unlikely than those numbers would suggest.
RE: I have watched the play at least a 20X now...  
Matt M. : 1/18/2021 1:28 pm : link
In comment 15126929 bw in dc said:
Quote:
and it amazing how open Hill is. Henne had such an easy throw.

You would have thought it was 4th and 5 by the way Cleveland tried to cover it.
I think this goes back to FatMan's point. The Chiefs (Reid in particular) must have seen something from the Browns to proceed. I agree it's riskier with Henne, but I would guess this is something they practice regularly (not unusual for Reid) and felt prepared for. If he sees what they want, regardless of who is taking the snap, he runs the play as they expect it to work. He sees something unexpected or unfavorable, he takes the delay and then they punt.
I should have added to my last post,  
Matt M. : 1/18/2021 1:30 pm : link
that while I agree this is really risky and I'm not sure I would call it if I were the HC, I don't know I would classify it as reckless. Reid is a meticulous coach. He does try some unconventional things, but his team practices and prepares for them. This likely falls into that category.
RE: unless my math is off  
Bramton1 : 1/18/2021 3:11 pm : link
In comment 15126700 fkap said:
Quote:
always a good possibility,

9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still...

Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors.

Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.


The math is off, because you would need to eliminate the following scenarios from the equation.

1. Games that were not close enough for a team to attempt a game-winning/tying drive.

2. Games that were close enough, but the team trailing did not get a chance to attempt a game-winning/tying drive.

3. Games where a team did attempt a game-winning drive, but they had at least one timeout.

4. Games where a team did attempt a game-winning drive with no timeouts, but had the two minute warning.

Other factors to consider would be how much time remaining, field position, quality of the playmakers on offense, and quality of the playmakers on defense.
There was a certain amount of risk involved, but let's be honest  
Bramton1 : 1/18/2021 3:16 pm : link
This is why coaches and players want film and study tendencies. Kansas City did not go to the line thinking, "Gosh, I hope this works." They followed the body language of the defense, studied how they typically react in this scenario, and read the coverage. They felt confident that this was going to work.
......  
Route 9 : 1/18/2021 3:20 pm : link
Nah.

They made it.

Cleveland shouldn't have let Chad flipping Henne run on their defense on 3rd and long.
_________  
I am Ninja : 1/18/2021 3:52 pm : link
Winners play to win. Losers play not to lose.
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