Let's Be Fair That Andy Reid 4th Down Call was bad one

Nothing to add. I would have punted and challenged Baker to go 80 or more yards to win the game. I was shocked the ball was snapped and so was Romo. Ballsy call that could have backfired.

You make a call to win the game.

It's the call that the Browns didn't make on 4th down with 4 min left and gave the ball back to the Chiefs, which IMO was a mistake.

Put me on the opposite side of this one.

to have a certain tell that if the Browns were out of position, it was a certain conversion.

Nobody thought they'd snap it, which is probably the main reason it worked

They ran that play to win the game vs. Miami, so it must have been let's see how Cleveland lines up and take the delay if it doesn't look right.

Still massive cajones and as others said, the call Stefanski didn't make at 4 minutes.

Smart, gutsy call. It does not work unless your team is well prepared.

And I believe in the same down and distance. So Reid had tipped his hand.

I agree the smarter play is punting. But because of one key difference: Henne.

Trusting Henne to execute that play was unbelievable.

In comment 15126678 bw in dc said:

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And I believe in the same down and distance. So Reid had tipped his hand. I agree the smarter play is punting. But because of one key difference: Henne. Trusting Henne to execute that play was unbelievable.

I still think its a bad call with Mahomes, but trust Henne to me is unreal. The issue is not that the play won't work, but that there can be a failure to execute from QB and receiver. So, if the execution is off you give the Browns a real chance (maybe 15-20% to score from midfield with no timeouts), you punt the game is 99% over.

In comment 15126680 Essex said:

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In comment 15126678 bw in dc said: Quote: And I believe in the same down and distance. So Reid had tipped his hand. I agree the smarter play is punting. But because of one key difference: Henne. Trusting Henne to execute that play was unbelievable. I still think its a bad call with Mahomes, but trust Henne to me is unreal. The issue is not that the play won't work, but that there can be a failure to execute from QB and receiver. So, if the execution is off you give the Browns a real chance (maybe 15-20% to score from midfield with no timeouts), you punt the game is 99% over.

The game wouldn't be 99% over. There was a little over a minute left. This season alone, there have been 9 last minute TD drives that started at the 20 or shorter. So while it is unlikely, the conversions have happened.

have his team well prepared for these situational calls. But as mentioned the confidence to go for it with the backup brought it to another level.

They won.

In comment 15126683 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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In comment 15126680 Essex said: Quote: In comment 15126678 bw in dc said: Quote: And I believe in the same down and distance. So Reid had tipped his hand. I agree the smarter play is punting. But because of one key difference: Henne. Trusting Henne to execute that play was unbelievable. I still think its a bad call with Mahomes, but trust Henne to me is unreal. The issue is not that the play won't work, but that there can be a failure to execute from QB and receiver. So, if the execution is off you give the Browns a real chance (maybe 15-20% to score from midfield with no timeouts), you punt the game is 99% over. The game wouldn't be 99% over. There was a little over a minute left. This season alone, there have been 9 last minute TD drives that started at the 20 or shorter. So while it is unlikely, the conversions have happened.

I mean I will stand corrected, but there were 9 last minute TD drives with 0 timeouts. That would surprise me.

I thought the lack of playoff experience really hurt the Browns. The last time they held possession, you just have to execute on offense. It’s not like the Chiefs really held them. The Browns just made mistakes and ended up punting. They really should have had the game.

vs playing to win. And how many times have we said no way they'll drive to win the game just to have our hearts broken?

Gutsy call and it worked. End of story.

Justify the decision. Write that on your wall and live by it.

Speaking of bad Reid decisionmaking, did you get a load of the time management at the end of the first half? Holy crap.

always a good possibility,

9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still...

Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors.

Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.

how many timeouts were left. I know one of them was the Hail Murray game with no timeouts left.

when you look at a situation do you think about what you lose if you fail, or what you gain if you succeed?

In comment 15126700 fkap said:

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always a good possibility, 9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still... Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors. Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched.

The math will be off because there are going to be several games where a team doesn't have a chance to drive with no timeouts left to win the game. The other team can just run the clock out, like the Giants did vs. the Cowboys.

In comment 15126690 cosmicj said:

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I thought the lack of playoff experience really hurt the Browns. The last time they held possession, you just have to execute on offense. It’s not like the Chiefs really held them. The Browns just made mistakes and ended up punting. They really should have had the game.

Good point. The Browns missed a lot of golden opportunity yesterday.

I was just aghast at how Joe Woods had them playing defense almost that entire game in that ridiculous soft shell. And they continued to use it when Henne entered the game!

If I’m a Browns fan today, I want him replaced...

In comment 15126706 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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In comment 15126700 fkap said: Quote: always a good possibility, 9 TD out of 256 possible (16 games x 16 weeks) is a 3.5% success rate. greater than 1 %, but still... Obviously, score of the game/desperation of losing team, and quality of teams are big factors. Seems to me, KC pass rush was getting the job done during the last part of the game I watched. The math will be off because there are going to be several games where a team doesn't have a chance to drive with no timeouts left to win the game. The other team can just run the clock out, like the Giants did vs. the Cowboys.

no timeouts is a critical factor for me at least. It just makes going down the field for a TD so much harder. I mean I am not so sure how much I like the Browns chances with 3 timeouts, but 80 yards and no timeouts is probably a better risk for me than not executing and giving them 50 yard with no timeouts. I also get the people who are saying you have to go win the game, because I would be the first person to criticize a coach who did not do that, but, by the same token, the gamble has to be worth the reward. You can say the same thing about going to win the game if the play was at the Chiefs 20 yards line?

to the fact that the Chiefs took a risk and it worked. I would have to believe they snapped the ball only because they were really confident Hill was uncovered. Let's say the play had a 93% chance of succeeding. And punting the ball was a 7% chance to lose - it sort of balances out.

Reid made the bold play and it worked. I don't think it was an egregious error if it was an error at all.

the wrong call from an analytics standpoint, but I like when coaches give their offense a chance to execute.

Once you punt the ball you lose a lot of your control over the situation and coaches, as a group, love control.

And, Andy Reid is about to host his 6th home field conference championship game. 2nd to Belichick for the most and only coach to do it with two teams, I think he's earned the right to call a play like that.

but its something that they completely fooled the Browns on, as close to automatic as it gets when taking into account the circumstances (some of the defenders were lazily standing up which Reid likely banked on to make it work).

Lesson learned from Stefanski and the rest of the coaches in the NFL, don't take any plays off especially when the game is on the line. I actually think more focus should be on Stefanski - he completely shit the bed in the 2nd half and not having his team ready for a play like this is a brutal way to end the season.

about Stefanski. I'd love to know the analytics behind punting the ball on a 4th and 4 in KC territory with 4+ minutes left. He went for it earlier in a worse position and then opted to give the ball back to the KC offense.

I thought that if the ball was snapped it would be for a qb sneak.
Horrible call, I imagined The Giants throwing that pass to Even E.

In comment 15126727 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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about Stefanski. I'd love to know the analytics behind punting the ball on a 4th and 4 in KC territory with 4+ minutes left. He went for it earlier in a worse position and then opted to give the ball back to the KC offense.

I can definitely get behind criticizing Stefanski. I would like to hear what he said first, but with Mahomes in the game punting there has to be the wrong move. With Henne in the game (which I assume he factored into it), you still have to go for it. Even the downside wasn't horrible if you think they won't get a first down, they kick a field goal and you are down 25-17 with a chance to tie. That was a no-brainer going for it.

Clearly was a great call.

were ready, I think that play still has a good chance to work.

4th and inches, you get in shot gun and have your backup QB throw a short pass to your speedy WR. I don't care if Stefanski is Ray Handley, that's tough to pin on the opposite head coach.

the worse play was letting Chad Henne scramble 13 and a half yards on 3rd and 14. That is the one that would keep me awake all night as a fan or Browns coach. Even stopping him at 4th and 2 or 3 I think the Chiefs punt.

In comment 15126742 Doubledeuce22 said:

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Clearly was a great call.

When analyzing decisions, I think its best to analyze it at the time the decision maker made the decision. The outcome is always going to factor into it obviously, but if you run the play 100 times they won't complete it every time.

Within this thread. I enjoyed reading it.

In comment 15126748 Essex said:

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In comment 15126742 Doubledeuce22 said: Quote: Clearly was a great call. When analyzing decisions, I think its best to analyze it at the time the decision maker made the decision. The outcome is always going to factor into it obviously, but if you run the play 100 times they won't complete it every time.

You get a few inches and you win the game or you punt and potentially can lose the game. I think it took guts and that’s why Reid is one of the best coaches in football. He put his faith in his offense that they could pick up a few inches.

In comment 15126674 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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to have a certain tell that if the Browns were out of position, it was a certain conversion. Nobody thought they'd snap it, which is probably the main reason it worked

This makes sense, in the moment even after success, I thought it was not the smart thing to do. But your scenario would make it a much higher probability of success w

In comment 15126742 Doubledeuce22 said:

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Clearly was a great call.

And if it didn't it would have been awful lol

Risk reward wasn't there but it worked.

Browns, coaching, at the end as others pointed out was pretty poor.

Have to go for it on 4th and 4. The downside is that you turn the ball over on downs. Whether you punt or lose on downs, you still need to stop the Cheifs. Stop the Chiefs and they kick a field goal and you still get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.

How the hell did they let Henne run at the end for that yardage was amazing. You would think that the Chiefs would play safe there - either a short dump off or a QB draw. It didn't take a genius to figure that out. You really need to force Henne at that point to take an incompletion. Have to rely on your defense a little. Sitting back was incredible.

"its great if it works, terrible if it doesn't" - to me that's lazy.

When you have the best offense in the league, and the two best weapons are the best TE since prime Gronk and an All Pro who can accelerate and turn on dime, it makes sense. If it didn't work out I wouldn't be flaming at the call. This wasn't an anemic offense trying to steal a win, this was the best offense in football needing 6".

A large portion of fans bitch when coaches go with what the analytics say to do, and then also bitch when they go with their gut, the choice always seems to be wrong no matter what.

while most sit back and discuss the what, why, how and ifs.

and we, as fans, don’t have all the facts.

Do we know that they don’t run that play if they don’t get a certain defensive look that makes the conversion highly likely?

So no, it is not a bad call. Your opinion is that it is a bad call.

that is how you win at football. Believe in your team to gain 1 yard. Control your own destiny.

Think about it if you're on defense. You stop them short, 4th down you did your job, offense will get another shot to win the game. What's the worse thing you want to happen there? Them going for it on 4th down.

You have to be ready for the QB sneak, the RB dive, the RB going off tackle, the screen pass, any kind of pass really. And you can't false start! On offense, you have to believe in your offensive line. You can't have any free rushers and you can't have anyone blow a guy up. The qb has to be smart with the ball if its a pass....i feel like the Giants always go for the low percent completion deep sideline pass in this situation. I'm sure its because they are reading that they have single coverage...this is where play makers come into play...but still I'd rather see a high percentage pass, something the QB can see is open before throwing the ball then a 50/50 ball to a play maker.

Using the following criteria - From 2001 to 2020, any team vs. any team, started in the fourth quarter, drive started between 1:14 and 0:00 remaining, scoring margin at start of drive is between -8 and -4.

I don't see a filter for timeouts, so that probably has an impact.

This indicates 401 such drives, resulting in 31 touchdowns, or 7.7%.

All outcomes

End of Game 189 47.1%
Interception 96 23.9%
Fumble 48 12.0%
Downs 34 8.5%
Touchdown 31 7.7%
Safety 2 .5%
Fumble, Safety 1 .2%
All Turnovers 144 35.9%
All Scores 31 7.

wanted they would have called timeout and punted. At least that is my theory. I can't believe they would just blindly go for it

Ballsy and brilliant - henne can key clock run or snap depending on
Look - a players coach - a coach that plays to win - sign me up
- you guys keep having theoretical bad call discussions about things that
Worked - holy smokes

Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game.

If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time.

Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%.

If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time.
It was likely the right decision.

In comment 15126802 AdamBrag said:

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Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game. If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time. Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%. If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time. It was likely the right decision.

And don't think for a second Andy Reid didn't already know that the Browns were THE WORST team in the entire NFL on 4th down.

In comment 15126792 mcr2343 said:

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Using the following criteria - From 2001 to 2020, any team vs. any team, started in the fourth quarter, drive started between 1:14 and 0:00 remaining, scoring margin at start of drive is between -8 and -4. I don't see a filter for timeouts, so that probably has an impact. This indicates 401 such drives, resulting in 31 touchdowns, or 7.7%. All outcomes End of Game 189 47.1% Interception 96 23.9% Fumble 48 12.0% Downs 34 8.5% Touchdown 31 7.7% Safety 2 .5% Fumble, Safety 1 .2% All Turnovers 144 35.9% All Scores 31 7.

Did you put in the starting yard line being the 20? That is also a huge factor in this equation as well. Also, are the TDs necessarily offensive tds because we see (not often but not insignificantly either) a defensive TD.

Sort of call where he's hailed a genius if KC converts, a moron if Cleveland makes a stop. I would have punted considering the circumstances, but props to Reid for having the balls to make the right call & end the game.

with 0 timeouts to go 80 yards is anything more than 1 percent. You literally need a Hail Mary. Going 50 yards from midfield with all the momentum of a stop there and that defense is probably a 50/50 proposition.


How are Browns going to go 80 yards when they can’t pass block long enough for big plays the Chiefs will certainly be sitting on. Reid is a great head coach, but he certainly has questionable in game decision making skills. They had zero timeouts. A Hail Mary from the 40 plus is guranteed to be needed.

In comment 15126802 AdamBrag said:

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Just guessing, but KC probably converts on 4th and 1 at ~80% of the time. When they convert, they win the game. If they don't convert, they probably still prevent a TD ~70% of the time. Therefore, their win probability by making that decision is something like 94%. If they punt, they probably stop Cleveland ~90% of the time. It was likely the right decision.

If they punt they stop CLE something like over 99 percent. Your 90 percent is low even when the factors of no timeouts and starting deep are factored in.

Scroll down a few paragraphs in this story:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/01/18/mmqb-divisional-round-chad-henne-chiefs-bills-packers-buccaneers

The play was picked by Henne. Also they took advantage of most teams line up in that situation and hope the defense jumps offsides. They counted on the Browns to relax.

what's the conversion rate for 4th and inches? I have to figure that it is pretty high (like >75%). The play isn't what I expected on 4th and inches, but I agree with going for it.

But adding in starting inside own 25 - drops TD % to 4.3. That's pretty low. I'd say it goes down to 3% or so due to timeouts.

On another note - hail mary passes have been successful at a way higher rate than I expected. It's like 1 in every 12.

None of this accounts for possibility of blocked punt or bad snap on the punt.

I think it's probably in the 3-5% range that Cle would get a TD