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Colts, Steelers maybe want to trade up for QB

dee-fense : 1/18/2021 4:04 pm
This is talked about in forums of other sites but not here. Everyone (including me) always wants to trade down but DG never seems to and it's not that easy.

However, maybe there are some willing partners this year and I, for one, think it would go a long way with little loss of prospect value to grab a WR/Edge/CB/OL/LB with 5 or more picks in first 4 rounds...etc....

Going back to low 20s still almost certainly yields great value vs. 11. Lots of WRs, OL CBs and even Edge players seem to match value and need there.

Fun to think how that could jumpstart the Judge regime a la Parcells approach early in his tenure....I'm for it (probably like most of you) so maybe this is the year....?
Depends what is offered..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/18/2021 4:07 pm : link
if it is a move back to the 20's for an extra 3rd rounder - that's not very good.

The dropoff from 11 to the 20's isn't a "good value" - it is usually a significant decline. Trading from 16th to later in the 1st round is usually where the value exists. Prior to that, you are often giving up a premium pick.
If the following players are gone  
superspynyg : 1/18/2021 4:07 pm : link
Chase, Smith, Parsons (Sewell will be gone)

Then yes trAde backs we can get a 2nd round this year and a ffirst round next year or a third this year and a first and third next year.
RE: Depends what is offered..  
Mike in NY : 1/18/2021 4:16 pm : link
In comment 15127116 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
if it is a move back to the 20's for an extra 3rd rounder - that's not very good.

The dropoff from 11 to the 20's isn't a "good value" - it is usually a significant decline. Trading from 16th to later in the 1st round is usually where the value exists. Prior to that, you are often giving up a premium pick.


You are making too much sense FMiC. Don't you know that will make you persona non grata on BBI? Not to mention I don't think teams will offer trade board value to the Giants because they know we are not in danger of selecting a QB and, unless they are convinced SF or NE wants a QB they are targetting, they just need to stay ahead of Washington at 19. Trading down for the sake of trading down does not maximize your return on Draft Day. Ernie Accorsi traded down in Round 1, but they were in a situation where a number of players were ranked similarly so they knew they would still get someone in their top tier. There may be other edge rushers, OL, WR, DB available in the early 20's, but if they are not on the same tier as those available at 11 I am not sure it is worth it without a full value return.
It also depends on who is still available.  
Vin_Cuccs : 1/18/2021 4:16 pm : link
If one of the three WR’s (Chase, Smith, Waddle) are still on the board, it would be hard to pass them up considering how badly this team needs offensive playmakers.
Or the New England Patriots  
rasbutant : 1/18/2021 4:16 pm : link
at pick 15, there still a good chance of Waddle being there. Also, Jaycee Horn CB would be a good pick. Even Gregory Rousseau EDGE could be there.
I  
AcidTest : 1/18/2021 4:17 pm : link
wouldn't move down from #11 to the 20s for a third round pick, and I'm sure no one else here would either. Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields will also be gone by #11. Is anyone really going to give up what it would take to move up to #11 for Lance, Jones, or Trask? The Colts are at #21, Pittsburgh is at #24. We also don't know who will be on the board at #11, and the Giants haven't traded down in any round since Accorsi did so in the first to take Kiwi.
RE: If the following players are gone  
Mike in NY : 1/18/2021 4:18 pm : link
In comment 15127117 superspynyg said:
Quote:
Chase, Smith, Parsons (Sewell will be gone)

Then yes trAde backs we can get a 2nd round this year and a ffirst round next year or a third this year and a first and third next year.


Nobody is offering a 1st next year for #11 unless possibly you are talking about New Orleans moving up for a QB. We are not getting that and probably not even a 2nd from Indy or Pittsburgh because there is no reason to move all the way up to 11 when 16-18 will work just fine.
If the Giants can trade  
pjcas18 : 1/18/2021 4:24 pm : link
back from 11 to the 20's pick up a 2nd in 2021 and a 1st in 2022, do it in a heartbeat.

I feel like that level of desperation would have to wait until draft day and someone unexpected to be there at 11 winds up there at 11.

but as has been pointed out, in general, overwhelmingly, the better players are available closer to #1 not further away from it.
RE: RE: If the following players are gone  
AcidTest : 1/18/2021 4:27 pm : link
In comment 15127130 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 15127117 superspynyg said:


Quote:


Chase, Smith, Parsons (Sewell will be gone)

Then yes trAde backs we can get a 2nd round this year and a ffirst round next year or a third this year and a first and third next year.



Nobody is offering a 1st next year for #11 unless possibly you are talking about New Orleans moving up for a QB. We are not getting that and probably not even a 2nd from Indy or Pittsburgh because there is no reason to move all the way up to 11 when 16-18 will work just fine.


^This. I don't see us trading down from #11. I don't think we'd be interested in doing so simply based on our lack of interest for so many years, but even if we are, the compensation will likely be too little to justify doing so. A trade down on day two or three is somewhat more likely. The Giants had a trade down last year if McKinney was off the board, and their recent success with day three picks (Lemieux, Crowder) may entice them to try and obtain a few more in the later rounds.
I believe Gettlemans trades have followed the trade chart  
rasbutant : 1/18/2021 4:32 pm : link
Trade from 11 to 15 would net a 3rd round pick.

11 = 1250
15 = 1050
200 pts difference

Which would equal their 3rd round pick slot, except they don't have a 3rd round pick. So, the deal I would ask for is...

Giants Trade
1st Round #11 = 1250
3rd Round #76 = 210
Total = 1460

Pats Trade
1st Round #15 = 1050
2nd Round #46 = 440
Total = 1490 pts.
Also....  
rasbutant : 1/18/2021 4:36 pm : link
"The Cards traded up to the No. 10 overall pick to snag UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen.

Arizona sent the No. 15 pick, a 3rd-round pick (No. 79) and a fifth-round selection (No. 152) to the Oakland Raiders for the right to take the signal-caller."
Yeah, no.  
section125 : 1/18/2021 4:43 pm : link
no 3rd and 5th. They need people likely to make the team and likely to improve it.
Like I said above..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/18/2021 4:46 pm : link
a 3rd (and even extra) to move to the 20's would be unacceptable. It might even be that way to move down to 15, although more defensible.
Josh Rosen  
Mike in NY : 1/18/2021 4:47 pm : link
At the time was thought of as the last QB before a signficant perceived dropoff. On the other hand, unless there is a mad rush in the top 10 on QB's, which might push someone to 11 that is too good to pass up, you are talking about the 1st QB of the third tier (Lawrence in a tier by himself, Fields/Wilson tier 2, and Lance/Jones/Trask tier 3). Unless a team has one of those 3 as part of tier 2 and a signficant dropoff before tier 3, what is the hurry to get to 11?
Throw trade charts out the window  
GiantsRage2007 : 1/18/2021 4:49 pm : link
With DG

He's not trading down.

Never has.

He's full bloom in love with someone already.
IF There Is A Projected Top QB Still Available At 11th Overall  
Trainmaster : 1/18/2021 4:56 pm : link
you can add a "premium" to the trade value chart.

I agree with others that say you have to see what non-QBs are still on the board.

Trevor Lawrence will be gone and likely both Fields and Zach Wilson. IF the top non-QBs in need positions for the Giants are gone and IF a QB hungry team offers more than fair value, you accept the trade down.

If as some mocks have projected that 5 QBs go in the top 10, there have to be some good non-QBs available at 11th overall. And with the top 5 QBs gone, the Giants are not going to get "premium" trade offers. So you stand pat and draft BPA in a need position (WR, CB, Edge, LB, OL).
Teams are likely to trade up  
DavidinBMNY : 1/18/2021 5:08 pm : link
However, this action is probably going to go on ahead of the Giants.

4 qbs are liked a lot right now.

What it means is a good player should be available to the Giants at 11. Either a weapon on offense, an elite secondary prospect, OL, or edge.

11 isn't a prime trade down spot.

Teams picking early can get a haul if they have a QB. This is the year to make a move. Early indications are next year is not expected to be a strong QB draft class.

I think it's pretty certain the Giants will get a good player, just will it be match need / value.

If one of the four QB's drop to our pick  
JohnF : 1/18/2021 5:12 pm : link
I could see the Steelers making a feeler, since Ben is either done or almost done. If we swap #1's (Pitt is at 24 right now), I could see getting back their #2 and #3, which would give us 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.
Yea it will happen  
Carl in CT : 1/18/2021 5:15 pm : link
Cause he always trades back....
I think this is a best-case scenario:  
81_Great_Dane : 1/18/2021 5:22 pm : link
San Francisco, Pittsburgh, New England and Indianapolis all want QBs. When the Giants are on the clock, there's a QB on the board that one or more of those teams want.

if San Francisco wants the QB, they would like to stand pat at #12, knowing the Giants won't draft a QB. However, if Indy, Pittsburg and/or NE are offering picks to move up, the Niners have to get into the bidding.

SF offers #12 overall and their 5th and 6th round picks to for the Giants' #11 and a 2022 6th. The Giants get two extra picks essentially for free -- they're going to get the same player at #12 they were going to take at #11.

Even better, you get a little bidding war going. Multiple trade offers. Get one of those teams to overpay to get their QB.
we'll see how much influence Judge has  
Platos : 1/18/2021 5:37 pm : link
because i fully expect us to take surtain at 11 if he's there regardless of who else is around.

a trade down would be nice though imo if we can snatch another 2nd rounder.

i'm thinking Surtain is the target but his tape/speed is going to drop him into the 20's so a colts/pitt trade could work.

i know, it sounds crazy the top CB falls to the 20's(its not, its happened before, good players drop)
Dee-fense: What was Parcells’ approach early in his tenure? Didn’t he  
Ivan15 : 1/18/2021 6:31 pm : link
Just switch QBs until he had no choice but to play Simms? I don’t remember that he did anything brilliant.
Data anyone?  
Josh in MD : 1/18/2021 11:34 pm : link
Every year, we hear a thundering chorus at BBI to trade down. Has anyone every presented any data to show that this is in general a wise thing to do?
I hope that none of those who criticize Gettleman for not sufficiently esteeming "analytics" (a fancy word for statistics, coined to awe the impressionable) are also knocking him for never trading down--unless they are offering "analytics" to prove that trading down is a good strategy.
With all the QB hungry teams  
Beer Man : 1/19/2021 7:15 am : link
Picking in front of the Giants, there should be a few top-10 prospects still on the board when they pick. I would stay put unless a team could blow them away with a trade offer.
11 does have a bit of value as you get the 5th year  
bigbluescot : 1/19/2021 8:01 am : link
cheaper.

But I can only see a trade happening if there just happens to be QB run, and just one of them is left sitting at 11. This is unlikely but I suppose could happen.

If not I imagine we'd be after any non-QB worth trading up for

You just have to imagine anyone looking for a QB will try to move into the top 10. Now potentially, there's a small chance that we could be an intermediatory trade or part of some convoluted chain where the top ten team doesn't want to move down to say the Colts or the Pats, but those almost never happen in the NFL and I'm not sure there's much value there for us.
Top 10 BBI excuses why Giants won't trade down  
LBH15 : 1/19/2021 8:27 am : link
10. Who says anybody wants to trade up?
9. Despite what some posters think, trade downs are rare
8. You still need to find a trading partner
7. Giants need quality not quantity
6. Only a handful of good players in this draft
5. The odds of getting a good player go down
4. Giants/GM never trade down
3. Teams that trade down always get fleeced
2. Draft picks from Rd 3 on are basically worthless


1. You don't trade down for the sake of trading down!
Another component to these plots & scenarios  
RetroJint : 1/19/2021 8:40 am : link
is the veteran QBs who are spinning around like free radicals . Guys like Darnold . Watching Rivers load from the ground to throw a 20-yarder must have slapped in the face Colt management . And Big Ben is trying to dunk and dink his way down the field in the manner of Gruden’s QBs when he was the Buc’s HC.

Most likely the Giants stay at 11. Can’t see a major drop off in talent that early . Gettleman is like a day worker . I hope he understands that . I hope he feels the pressure each and every day . He presents no upside at 70. Zero .

RE: If the Giants can trade  
TommyWiseau : 1/19/2021 8:43 pm : link
In comment 15127134 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
back from 11 to the 20's pick up a 2nd in 2021 and a 1st in 2022, do it in a heartbeat.

I feel like that level of desperation would have to wait until draft day and someone unexpected to be there at 11 winds up there at 11.

but as has been pointed out, in general, overwhelmingly, the better players are available closer to #1 not further away from it.


When the chiefs moved up from 27 to 10 to take Mahomes, they traded a 3rd round pick that year and a 1st the next year
RE: RE: If the Giants can trade  
chopperhatch : 1/19/2021 10:05 pm : link
In comment 15128441 TommyWiseau said:
Quote:
In comment 15127134 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


back from 11 to the 20's pick up a 2nd in 2021 and a 1st in 2022, do it in a heartbeat.

I feel like that level of desperation would have to wait until draft day and someone unexpected to be there at 11 winds up there at 11.

but as has been pointed out, in general, overwhelmingly, the better players are available closer to #1 not further away from it.



When the chiefs moved up from 27 to 10 to take Mahomes, they traded a 3rd round pick that year and a 1st the next year


Not enough....swap firsts, plus a 2nd this year as well as a 2nd and 3rd next year.

If not....BYE.
They could also try and do what the  
McNally's_Nuts : 1/20/2021 12:21 pm : link
Bills did in 2018. They were picking 21st and the traded to 12 w/ the Bengals in the offseason giving up Cordy Glenn and a 5th rounder.

Then they went from 12 to 7 to get Josh Allen. I would say that is likely.
Then Bufallo traded  
McNally's_Nuts : 1/20/2021 12:23 pm : link
12 and two 2nd round picks, 53 and 56 to the Bucs.

They traded away pick 56 and the guy they selected at 53 was cut after 2019 (Bucs did this)
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