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NFT: Good Morning Mets fans

DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 9:40 am
-Springer a Blue Jay

-Quintana to LAA for 1 year 8. Bummed we didn’t land him at that price. Potential steal.

-Heyman says they had/have interest in Kike Hernandez but he is looking for a starting job. Maybe a platoon in CF with PT in other spots entices him?

-the new head of R& D is close with Justin Turner. Zero indication the Mets are interested but notable.

-have not shown interest in JBJ to this point

-Hand and Colome have both switched agents (Hand’s new agent does not have any Mets clients for anyone looking for that connection)
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Based  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 2:41 pm : link
on the 2020 draft pool numbers the Mets dropping from 24-34 would have lost...less than 700,000 in pool money. 2.8 to 2.14
The first round pick is generally the easiest place to save the money  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 2:45 pm : link
to go over elsewhere just because there's the most to save - I believe that's how they got themselves Allan by saving money on Baty.

Either way I don't think going over is a big deal and whatever his concerns Shecky said he'd go over for a final piece type of move. I think they viewed Springer that way and I think that's why everyone was obviously in favor of that. For a back end starter or depth pickup though I can see why the difference in who can be picked up cheaper (like Luchessi was) may not be worth the extra $ and draft capital out the door.
I think of it this way  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 2:45 pm : link
the goal for MLB teams is to win at the MLB level.

Obviously you want a good farm system (it's critical to helping you win at the major league level), you want good analytics, good operations, good development, etc.

but the goal, why we are all here, is to win at the major league level.

If as a team you exceed the luxury tax threshold it should be a strategic decision, made because you feel like exceeding that LT enables you to get over the hump and win - AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL.

Yes, there is a cost, but IMO that cost is well worth it.

You rarely see a team with major league success and a top tier minor league team. It happens, but it's rare.

so I see the cycle going - do what you can to improve the major league club, do it in a manner that protects the farm to the extent possible (even try and improve the farm too) but when you've built a contender (like the Mets) you can make that cobra strike and do what is necessary to put your team over the top. If that's sign a player LT, trade prospects, and/or exceed the LT - you do it and you are happy to do it.

The Wipons were never willing to go to that next level, but still came up just short in a WS - the difference is they build band-aid teams not sustained for the long haul.

And that's what I'm looking for now.
PJ  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 2:48 pm : link
I mostly agree with you... except the farm system/MLB success stuff. The Rays and Dodgers are loaded (and were the WS teams) and the Padres were one of the best teams in baseball in 2020, and then used their completely loaded farm to improve upon that. The Braves have had one of the better farms (thus their recent success), The Twins/Indians were top farm systems and the Twins should again be a playoff team this year, the Indians are now rebuilding, Houston has routinely been loaded at the MLB and minor league levels as well. I think the rob peter to pay paul stuff is a thing of the past. You can build a farm and an MLB team at the same time.
From mid-season  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 2:50 pm : link
Rays #1, Padres #3, White Sox #6, Jays #7... all four of those teams are viewed as 2021 contenders, Dodgers #11, Twins 12.
RE: The first round pick is generally the easiest place to save the money  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 2:53 pm : link
In comment 15130051 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
to go over elsewhere just because there's the most to save - I believe that's how they got themselves Allan by saving money on Baty.

Either way I don't think going over is a big deal and whatever his concerns Shecky said he'd go over for a final piece type of move. I think they viewed Springer that way and I think that's why everyone was obviously in favor of that. For a back end starter or depth pickup though I can see why the difference in who can be picked up cheaper (like Luchessi was) may not be worth the extra $ and draft capital out the door.


The point is 700,000 in draft pool money loss would be extremely low on the totem pole of issues in deciding to be a repeat lux tax offender. They would have lost about 1.5 million AND a pick for signing any FA tied to a QO and we know they were IN on Springer and were "in" on Realmuto (he wasn't looking to sign quickly) that tells us this penalty if of little concern vs. others.
MLB network continuing their  
ZGiants98 : 1/21/2021 2:53 pm : link
Top 10 at every position with Alonso ranking today.

By my math and their lists, Mets should have a top 10 player at every position except 3B.

Doesn’t mean anything but kinda cool.
RE: MLB network continuing their  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 2:55 pm : link
In comment 15130067 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Top 10 at every position with Alonso ranking today.

By my math and their lists, Mets should have a top 10 player at every position except 3B.

Doesn’t mean anything but kinda cool.


Yes and no, they have Nimmo in CF so assuming he's not, they also won't have a top 10 CF (or are unlikely to).
Not  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 2:58 pm : link
that I believe everything Martino says but not sure why people thought 2 for 16 was realistic for JBJ? He's flawed but one of the top defensive CF in the sport. Why would he be signing for less than half of James McCann or the same money as Trevor May? 2 years? Never made sense. Not surprised that number apparently is extremely low vs. his ask.
Reds  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 3:00 pm : link
in on Simmons, would suggest this "sell-off" has been overstated. I always felt it was. Their pen is loaded. 11 million they were spending on Iglesias likely could be better spent.
RE: RE: MLB network continuing their  
ZGiants98 : 1/21/2021 3:00 pm : link
In comment 15130070 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15130067 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


Top 10 at every position with Alonso ranking today.

By my math and their lists, Mets should have a top 10 player at every position except 3B.

Doesn’t mean anything but kinda cool.



Yes and no, they have Nimmo in CF so assuming he's not, they also won't have a top 10 CF (or are unlikely to).


Yup just stating what their lists are. I do agree with them though that regardless of defense, Nimmo likely would finish in the top 10 in WAR in CF over a healthy season. His offense accelerates faster as WAR is position specific. His offense, while still great, isn’t worth as much in LF.

He likely won’t be in CF, but I still find it interesting.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 3:03 pm : link
wasn't disagreeing with you, rather our CF (whoever that is) likely isn't going to be a top 10 player at the position. JBJ obviously has higher odds of that than say horrendous Almora etc.
RE: PJ  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 3:03 pm : link
In comment 15130058 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I mostly agree with you... except the farm system/MLB success stuff. The Rays and Dodgers are loaded (and were the WS teams) and the Padres were one of the best teams in baseball in 2020, and then used their completely loaded farm to improve upon that. The Braves have had one of the better farms (thus their recent success), The Twins/Indians were top farm systems and the Twins should again be a playoff team this year, the Indians are now rebuilding, Houston has routinely been loaded at the MLB and minor league levels as well. I think the rob peter to pay paul stuff is a thing of the past. You can build a farm and an MLB team at the same time.


Dodgers I agree with, the rarity, built for long-term success.

Let's see the rest sustain the major league success.

The small market teams generally do well until they are forced to trade their good players before having to pay them.

Maybe some like SD is flipping that by spending on players like Machado (though still mostly players on low salaries), and for TB, CLE, MIN etc. I'll believe it when I see it - my sense is they'll be competitive while they have cost controlled young talent.

Good discussion, that IMO takes more than a season or two to reach conclusions because it takes looking back and seeing what they did
The  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 3:06 pm : link
Mets obviously need to rebuild the farm. They have some interesting pieces but in some areas it's almost unbelievable how thin they are. SP and OF in particular. This is going to take some time. That doesn't mean they can't trade prospects, but it does mean they shouldn't be giving away 6 prospects for Marisnick/Broxton/Hamilton. In the near term they don't have a ton of help on the way so 1 year deals for veterans are going to have to be the norm.
RE: I  
ZGiants98 : 1/21/2021 3:07 pm : link
In comment 15130084 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
wasn't disagreeing with you, rather our CF (whoever that is) likely isn't going to be a top 10 player at the position. JBJ obviously has higher odds of that than say horrendous Almora etc.


Yup. I think looking at it also reaffirms a 3B/2B is the smarter target now(McNeil plays the other spot). As you’ve mentioned there’s a huge drop off from Springer left available while there are plenty of goof IF targets. I think we could get by with a Marisnick/Nimmo platoon if need be if the IF was rock solid.
No  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 3:08 pm : link
issue giving up prospects for multi-year good MLB options. You deal of a Mauricio as part of a Gray/Suarez deal (I don't believe this "rumor" FWIW), that's completely fine, 2 players under control long term. It's when you're tossing in prospects like they have no value, or trading them because you won't spend on FA where it becomes an issue.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 3:10 pm : link
don't think it's realistic because I think he's earmarked for LAD but Turner would be pretty great on a 2 year deal. Still mashes, he needs his PT managed at 36 but they DO have Davis/McNeil and Guillorme. Turner for 110 games would be a really solid addition (again don't think he's realistic).
I read that Martino piece and I dont understand it  
Ten Ton Hammer : 1/21/2021 3:20 pm : link
What is any of Cohen's talk or money for if they let Lindor walk for "draft picks". That is the opposite of who Steve Cohen represented himself to be.
RE: I read that Martino piece and I dont understand it  
KDavies : 1/21/2021 3:42 pm : link
In comment 15130105 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
What is any of Cohen's talk or money for if they let Lindor walk for "draft picks". That is the opposite of who Steve Cohen represented himself to be.


It's bs. No way do they trade for Lindor without intentions of signing him to a long-term deal.
RE: RE: I read that Martino piece and I dont understand it  
KDavies : 1/21/2021 3:43 pm : link
In comment 15130122 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15130105 Ten Ton Hammer said:


Quote:


What is any of Cohen's talk or money for if they let Lindor walk for "draft picks". That is the opposite of who Steve Cohen represented himself to be.



It's bs. No way do they trade for Lindor without intentions of signing him to a long-term deal.


And trade 2 shortstops in the process.
I’d take Turner on a 2 year deal  
ZGiants98 : 1/21/2021 3:46 pm : link
That would be a fun reunion (even though I think he hates Sandy lol)

Turner, Hand, and Marisnick. Invite Gio to ST. Offseason over.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 4:08 pm : link
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Mets are hiring Kevin Howard as farm director. He was Indians hitting coordinator.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 4:32 pm : link
Noticed Kevin Howard retweeted some video of Oscar Mercado. He had an AWFUL 2020 but 1.8 fWAR in 2019. 15 homers/15 steals, career +5 DRS in CF, +8 OAA... what does Mercado cost
@mets
?
RE: RE: The first round pick is generally the easiest place to save the money  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 4:37 pm : link
In comment 15130066 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

The point is 700,000 in draft pool money loss would be extremely low on the totem pole of issues in deciding to be a repeat lux tax offender. They would have lost about 1.5 million AND a pick for signing any FA tied to a QO and we know they were IN on Springer and were "in" on Realmuto (he wasn't looking to sign quickly) that tells us this penalty if of little concern vs. others.


Isn't the bold the exact point? They were IN on Springer, even if it made it very likely they were going to get close or go over the LTT. Doesn't that prove that they are willing to be aggressive? They had every excuse to say they were out on him after acquiring Lindor/Carrasco if they wanted to.

And further isn't the Springer situation a perfect example of why you want to have flexibility so that way when a player of his ability comes along you can go after them without penalty?

I mean the biggest spending teams seem to operate this exact same way. They are willing to go over if they have to but they don't go over just to do so. They all seem to try to preserve flexibility and avoid repeat offender status.
reports that  
ryanmkeane : 1/21/2021 5:04 pm : link
Bauer is down to Mets or Angels
RE: reports that  
JayBinQueens : 1/21/2021 5:05 pm : link
In comment 15130204 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Bauer is down to Mets or Angels


Carton & Evan said rumor is 5 years $185mil.

Didn't say where he heard it from
Bauer/Lindor  
jpkmets : 1/21/2021 5:06 pm : link
Was a dream offseason. Would jump for joy. Sorry downstairs neighbors
looks like its coming from  
ryanmkeane : 1/21/2021 5:09 pm : link
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com
signing Bauer would be a wow move  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 5:10 pm : link
guess we will wait to see what the contract looks like but I have a hard time believing they would be in for anything too long term.

If they sign him for multiple years, I wonder if on the flip side they'd consider moving Stroman, since that would bring the chances of resigning him down to 0.
Complete BS  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 5:17 pm : link
No offer had been made. Nothing is new. Feinsand said the same weeks ago
RE: looks like its coming from  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 5:19 pm : link
In comment 15130213 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com


Feinsand simply said the Mets and Angels are in the best position to land him. This is complete BS from Carton.
This  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 5:24 pm : link
is all he said, this isn't some breaking or new news.


"Mets team president Sandy Alderson made it clear early in the winter that he likes Bauer, and even after signing Marcus Stroman, James McCann and Trevor May for a combined $75 million -- then trading for Francisco Lindor, who will earn $22.3 million in 2021 and command a huge extension likely exceeding $300 million -- new owner Steve Cohen has the financial wherewithal to sign Bauer (or anybody else, for that matter).

Pairing Bauer with Jacob deGrom atop the rotation would give the Mets a rock-solid 1-2 punch, with Stroman and eventually Noah Syndergaard forming a stellar group. Having missed out on Springer, will the Mets now turn their attention to Bauer?"
If Bauer  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 5:26 pm : link
circles back to the beginning of the off-season and wants a 1 year deal it may be perfect for the Mets.

After this year the Mets would have Bauer, Stroman and Syndergaard all free agents.

QO's for all and try and sign Syndergaard (if he returns to pre TJS Syndergaard), see how Bauer pitches, and after winning the world series make the call the call on him too.

Let Stroman go for a pick.

2nd half rotation of
deGrom
Syndergaard
Carrasco
Bauer
Stroman

and then the depth is really depth (they'll need a 5th starter until Syndergaard comes back) and then Matz, Lucchesi, etc. can be used the way they should be used).

but that ship may have sailed, but who knows.
This is what he said 2 full months ago  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 5:28 pm : link
"Feinsand said, “Whether Bauer decides on a multiyear deal or a one-year pact, the Mets are the team to watch here” and also added, “Several other teams will be in the mix for Bauer, but the Mets feel like the team ready to take the jump to sign him.”


He's been saying this for... 2 months. His new article doesn't say ANYTHING new or revelatory. Carton is a complete BSer. I'd take Bauer in one second but this isn't even a "rumor".
PJ, nice post but just one nit  
Metnut : 1/21/2021 5:29 pm : link
Stroman not eligible for the QO since he was given one this offseason.
yea I think I said this yesterday but unless he falls in their laps  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 5:33 pm : link
it is hard to envision Bauer after adding Carrasco for 3 years and having Thor up at the end of the year. To say nothing of what happens with Stroman. That's just such a heavy investment. Those 5 players would cost over $100m combined against the LTT this year and more beyond.

I think they will bring 1 more vet SP into camp but I expect it to be in the 2-4m range and heavily incentive based. That would have 4 guys competing for 2 spots in ST, with 2 of them having options to go down and 2 non-guaranteed vets. Plus Thor coming back midseason.
RE: PJ, nice post but just one nit  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 5:44 pm : link
In comment 15130237 Metnut said:
Quote:
Stroman not eligible for the QO since he was given one this offseason.


Thanks Metnut. Still hate that trade, and I hate it more every day.

Stroman could go a long way toward making me not hate it by pitching lights out.
RE: PJ, nice post but just one nit  
Shecky : 1/21/2021 6:10 pm : link
In comment 15130237 Metnut said:
Quote:
Stroman not eligible for the QO since he was given one this offseason.


Would we get a 2nd or a 4th of Thor leaves?
shecky do you think they get your guy  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 6:14 pm : link
Kike? 800+ career OPS vs. lefties, perfect winning mentality, could possibly start in the IF, provides OF depth. A lot to like there.
really dont want to not  
Rory : 1/21/2021 6:33 pm : link
have money set aside if Thor returns to form and becomes dominant again, will want to to sign him extension and have him carry DeGrom's torch as ace of the staff for the future.
RE: shecky do you think they get your guy  
Shecky : 1/21/2021 6:58 pm : link
In comment 15130270 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Kike? 800+ career OPS vs. lefties, perfect winning mentality, could possibly start in the IF, provides OF depth. A lot to like there.


Lol. Have absolutely no idea
I'm not deep in baseball like you all , but why is Bauer considered  
Ten Ton Hammer : 1/21/2021 7:38 pm : link
an elite free agent? The way people talk about him you'd think he was DeGrom's equal.
RE: Martino  
JoeMoney19 : 1/21/2021 7:44 pm : link
In comment 15129675 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
claims the Mets chose Conforto over Springer (basically) once they signed Lindor.

They love Conforto and want to extend him and they want to extend Lindor and didn't think they can do both with Springer.

Also, says they have multiple options being kicked around for CF and expects that decision is not yet made.

I'm paraphrasing from the article.

Link below. link - ( New Window )


I get the general point but the article doesn’t make a ton of sense. The issue of Springer vs. Conforto existed from the beginning. There’s no reason that should have caused a difference in thinking in the middle of the offseason.
RE: I'm not deep in baseball like you all , but why is Bauer considered  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 7:44 pm : link
In comment 15130305 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
an elite free agent? The way people talk about him you'd think he was DeGrom's equal.


He had an incredible season and has been "ace" good 2 of the last 3. He's not DeGrom but if he's 2018 or 2020 Bauer (or something in between) the Mets would have the best rotation in baseball and the top 1-2 punch in baseball. The question is... who is the real Bauer?
I'm  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 7:47 pm : link
not "team Bauer" not am I looking for a tedious Bauer argument (seems like he's a big point of contention" but he's 6th in fWAR over the last 3 seasons (no, nowhere near DeGrom), 16th in FIP, 9th in K/9. He's probably closer to top 10 to top 3-4 but at his best (2020) he's been as good as anyone.
Don't mean to incite any arguments. Not too familiar with him  
Ten Ton Hammer : 1/21/2021 8:14 pm : link
I just looked at his last no-covid seasons. 200 IP, 1.24 whip. It's good, but it's when I see people say he'd be part of a dream offseason I was curious.
RE: .  
Rory : 1/21/2021 9:14 pm : link
In comment 15130144 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Mets are hiring Kevin Howard as farm director. He was Indians hitting coordinator.


Something about the Clev organization has Sandy's eye. Wonder if Mike Chernoff is back on the radar for 2022
RE: RE: Martino  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 9:42 pm : link
In comment 15130310 JoeMoney19 said:
Quote:
In comment 15129675 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


claims the Mets chose Conforto over Springer (basically) once they signed Lindor.

They love Conforto and want to extend him and they want to extend Lindor and didn't think they can do both with Springer.

Also, says they have multiple options being kicked around for CF and expects that decision is not yet made.

I'm paraphrasing from the article.

Link below. link - ( New Window )



I get the general point but the article doesn’t make a ton of sense. The issue of Springer vs. Conforto existed from the beginning. There’s no reason that should have caused a difference in thinking in the middle of the offseason.


Not quite, Lindor changed everything, because then it wasn't Conforto and Springer, it was Lindor, Conforto and Springer. and Springer and Conforto tying up something like 50M in two OF spots.

So I think the article says the Mets pursuit of Springer cooled once the Lindor trade was finalized.
RE: RE: .  
KDavies : 1/21/2021 9:52 pm : link
In comment 15130338 Rory said:
Quote:
In comment 15130144 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Mets are hiring Kevin Howard as farm director. He was Indians hitting coordinator.



Something about the Clev organization has Sandy's eye. Wonder if Mike Chernoff is back on the radar for 2022


They churn out the pitching
IMO Mets dodged a bullet with Springer  
Vanzetti : 1/22/2021 1:12 am : link
How can you sign him until the DH is resolved?

Do that and you wind up spending 100+ million and make the lineup WORSE because then either Alonso or Dom has to sit. Or you have to trade Dom or Alonso, probably for pennies on the dollar because you painted yourself into a corner.

Also, how much longer can Springer play CF? A lot of talk about his defense has already slipped. Is a 37 year old Springer really going to play CF?

Finally, you would also basically be committed to letting either Conforto and/or Thor walk.

Sounds like Sandy made just a token effort to get him with a lowball offer. Makes me think Cohen was the one fixated on Springer.


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