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NFT: Good Morning Mets fans

DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 9:40 am
-Springer a Blue Jay

-Quintana to LAA for 1 year 8. Bummed we didn’t land him at that price. Potential steal.

-Heyman says they had/have interest in Kike Hernandez but he is looking for a starting job. Maybe a platoon in CF with PT in other spots entices him?

-the new head of R& D is close with Justin Turner. Zero indication the Mets are interested but notable.

-have not shown interest in JBJ to this point

-Hand and Colome have both switched agents (Hand’s new agent does not have any Mets clients for anyone looking for that connection)
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Toronto  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 11:56 am : link
signs Michael Brantley 3 year deal. Wow.
.  
pjcas18 : 1/20/2021 12:04 pm : link
Tim Ryder
@TimothyRRyder
· 1m
source: Mets have reached out to CIN regarding Sonny Gray and Eugenio Suarez. @Metsmerized report to follow
Metsmerized  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 12:04 pm : link
claims the Mets asked about Gray/Suarez. They would cost the Alvarez/Mauricio's of the world.
100%  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 12:06 pm : link
would cost some of their few top prospects. Essentially emptying the upper levels of the farm.
Reds  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 12:09 pm : link
have Winker/Castellanos in the corners. Votto locked in for years at 1b. Matt Allan would likely go, Mauricio likely too. This would be a painful trade.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 12:15 pm : link
Sonny Gray 7.5 fWAR since 2018, Carlos Carrasco 7.6. Over that time Gray has a 24th in the sport in FIP. His contract is A+ for a team. The cost would be very, very high
Would Mets be willing to take on Votto contract  
CMicks3110 : 1/20/2021 12:15 pm : link
And then just release him?
RE: Toronto  
KDavies : 1/20/2021 12:17 pm : link
In comment 15128924 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
signs Michael Brantley 3 year deal. Wow.


Interesting. Wonder what they do with Teoscar, Springer, Gurriel, and Brantley. Maybe DH Teoscar?
is Gurriel good at 2B?  
KDavies : 1/20/2021 12:19 pm : link
I know he has played 3B or 2B, but don't know enough about his defense. Biggio could play whichever he doesn't if Gurriel has the defensive ability for the IF
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 12:21 pm : link
Joe DeMayo
@PSLToFlushing
·
2m
I imagine this cost is quite high.

@JonHeyman
said 10 days ago the #Nationals reached out to the #Reds about Suarez and were told a deal would take one of their top 2 prospects Jackson Rutledge or Cade Cavalli as a part of it. This isn’t going to be a “salary dump” move. #Mets
RE: Would Mets be willing to take on Votto contract  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 12:22 pm : link
In comment 15128943 CMicks3110 said:
Quote:
And then just release him?


1. He has a full-no trade 2. His salary could completely cost against the lux tax. Adding those 3 would put the Mets WAY over the luxury tax and have Cano/Votto on the books for 45 million for the next 2, Votto signed through 2024.
Brantley  
DelZotto : 1/20/2021 12:43 pm : link
signs with blue jays
All  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 12:45 pm : link
Of that being said if “all” it took were Mauricio and JDD as headliners I’d do it without thinking twice. It would cost more
RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 12:57 pm : link
In comment 15128886 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Wong is an ELITE defensive 2b, maybe the best in the sport. Kike Hernandez somehow is getting lumped in as a 3b option... he hasn't played there in years and -1 DRS career


Kolten Wong is #1 in DRS at 2b the past 2 years with 25. Kike Hernandez is #2 with 21. That's why I suggested him ideally competing to win 2b with McNeil at 3b. Do I think Kike (or Guillorme) is as good defensively as Wong? No. But both are cheaper I do think both are likely very positive impact defenders. McNeil has also been a good defensive 2b.

Also Kike's versatility is a definitive plus over Wong because even if there are positions he hasn't played much (like 3b, ss, cf) Wong has only ever played 2b since 2016. Obviously I wouldn't be looking to put Hernandez in those positions for an extended period of time, just pointing out he has the versatility if it's needed. And it's likely he'd get some time in the OF because we have so few OF'ers on the roster right now.
2b DRS from 2019-2020 - ( New Window )
Wong  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:05 pm : link
+19 OAA at 2b (since 2017) Hernandez not even close at +2. There is a reason one is considered a GG caliber 2b.
Link - ( New Window )
Wong  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:06 pm : link
was Law's #9 FA, Hernandez wasn't in his top 40.


9. Kolten Wong, 2B, age 30

The Cardinals made a shocking choice by declining Wong’s $12.5 million option for 2021, making him a free agent just one year after he posted a 3.7 fWAR/5.2 bWAR, which puts him among the 10 most valuable free agents by total value in 2019-20. He’s a high-contact, low-exit velocity hitter who gets on base at an above-median clip for a second baseman, and after some ups and downs under Mike Matheny — who, for whatever reason, never seemed to warm to Wong as a regular — has hit .285/.362/.403 in the year-plus since Matheny was fired, with plus defense since he reached the majors. He was second among all second basemen in Outs Above Average in 2019, and led in both dRS and UZR. Wong does have a platoon split, but he’s become capable enough against lefties that he doesn’t have to sit against them. He doesn’t have much power, and shouldn’t really try to pull the ball too much, as he’s better when he uses the whole field and goes for contact. He’s an above-average regular right now, an asset to almost any contender, and should be for the length of a four- or five-year deal.
MLBTR  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:07 pm : link
had Wong 25, Hernandez not in their top 50


25. Kolten Wong – Red Sox. Two years, $16MM. The Cardinals’ decision to decline Wong’s $12.5MM club option came as a surprise to some, but this has long seemed like a plausible outcome. Wong’s profile — a pure second baseman lacking in power — is not one that gets paid well even in a normal offseason. Cesar Hernandez found himself non-tendered with a lower projected salary just one offseason ago, for instance.

Wong, 30, was drafted 22nd overall out of University of Hawaii at Manoa by the Cardinals in 2011. He’s been an above-average hitter twice in his career, with 108 wRC+ seasons in 2017 and ’19. Moving forward, I think offensive production right around league average can be expected from Wong.

Wong shines defensively, picking up a Gold Glove last year and showing strong marks in UZR, DRS, and outs above average. Still, I’m not convinced defense-first, second-base only players like Wong or Cesar Hernandez will do well in free agency. The Cardinals may try to retain Wong at a lesser rate, but otherwise the Red Sox, Angels, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Indians, Tigers, or Yankees could be fits.
Brantley  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:11 pm : link
to Toronto not done yet apparently.
RE: Brantley  
JB_in_DC : 1/20/2021 1:12 pm : link
In comment 15129024 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
to Toronto not done yet apparently.


Seems like this kind of thing has been happening more often than usual this year.
there's no doubt Wong is an elite defensively (few win GG accidently)  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 1:14 pm : link
but every metric seemingly has Kike Hernandez as a very good defender there as well. And we know Guillorme was very good there (and mcneil solid when he's been there). They have options at 2b.

The question with Wong isn't if he's the best option defensively - he is. The question is if the extra $ makes a bigger difference with that improvement vs. improving elsewhere. Hernandez helps reinforce multiple positions and being cheaper allows them to spend more money elsewhere.
How  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:32 pm : link
does Rich Coutinho have press credentials/ He's horrid
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:34 pm : link
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
8m
There is no deal for Michael Brantley. The sides continue to talk. Sorry for jumping the gun.
here's a very thorough article from Mark Simon on Hernandez' D  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 1:35 pm : link
Quote:
It’s understood that part of Hernández’s value is in his utility (heck, he won a Fielding Bible Award in 2020 for multi-position play) and that he’s not a great hitter against right-handed pitching (.235 BA, 25 HR in 553 at-bats the last three seasons). But let’s counter that with the fact that the last two seasons he’s played like an all-world second baseman in the field. Yes, we’d still take Andrelton Simmons as the best defensive player in this free agent class but Hernández has a pretty good highlight reel too.

Hernández has saved 21 runs with his defense in that time in just over 800 innings. By comparison, three-time Fielding Bible Award winner Kolten Wong has three more runs saved than Hernández does, but in nearly twice as many innings. We’ll add that Hernández is one of two infielders to amass at least 10 Range Runs Saved in fewer than 1,000 innings at a position in that span. The other is Rangers third baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who incidentally will be a full-time shortstop in 2021).

It’s hard to fully capture Hernández’s range value visually, but here’s a look at everywhere in which he made a play the last two seasons.




Quote:
In short, Hernández can do just about everything you would want a second baseman to do. Yes, you can have DJ LeMahieu and Kolten Wong and you’ll do extremely well. But Hernandez should be a good first choice at second base for someone.

Kiké Hernández is a defensive gem - ( New Window )
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:39 pm : link
Yeah, the Twins (not cutting payroll) are moving Buxton (5 million) to do so lol Doesn't take much to get a press pass I guess? Coutinho now limits who can respond or retweet him.
Kike  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:40 pm : link
Hernandez, NEGATIVE .1 fWAR in 2020, before we make him some hidden gem.
Marwin  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:42 pm : link
Gonzalez is likely cheaper and offers much of the same upside. Positive DRS all over the field.
Gonzalez  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:45 pm : link
positive career DRS at 1b, 2b, 3b, RF, LF and SS
regarding Kike's range  
KDavies : 1/20/2021 1:50 pm : link
not a knock on him at all, as I see the metrics, but how is that illustration helpful with the shift so prevalent? Considering a 2B can line up all over the place, I don't see that the illustration necessarily shows range, or that a 2B lined up all over the place as so often happens.
Arizona  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:55 pm : link
gave Devensi a minor league deal, solid zero risk pickup. Hopefully, the Mets make a few more of these.
Devenski  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 1:56 pm : link
Devenski
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 2:56 pm : link
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
21s
The Los Angeles Dodgers are monitoring the market for right-hander Trevor Bauer and could be a player depending on the price, sources tell ESPN. Focus for the Dodgers now remains on a right-handed infield bat, but Bauer and the Dodgers remain a possibility as his market develops.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:03 pm : link
Alden Gonzalez
@Alden_Gonzalez
·
2m
Only Mookie Betts is currently in the books beyond the 2022 season, though Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler will be quite expensive by then. Bauer would blow them past the CBT threshold in 2021, but a short-term, high-AAV deal is always appealing to them for a talent like that.
RE: Kike  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 3:16 pm : link
In comment 15129077 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Hernandez, NEGATIVE .1 fWAR in 2020, before we make him some hidden gem.


he's not a hidden gem, he's a very good utility player/borderline starter. There's nothing hidden about a guy who started 80% of the time for one of the best teams in baseball over the last several years.
RE: Marwin  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 3:20 pm : link
In comment 15129081 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Gonzalez is likely cheaper and offers much of the same upside. Positive DRS all over the field.


He'd be a perfectly fine signing as well. I'd probably prefer Hernandez but the benefit with Marwin is he's played more 3b and he's played it well by the numbers the past couple years (+5 DRS in 400 innings, +4 OAA). Either would be a very wise investment.
Bauer  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:21 pm : link
would make the Dodgers rotation ridiculous. Their cheap SP is a key to why they are able to make big moves.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:23 pm : link
wouldn't even say the Mets have 5 legitimate SP prospects.

Allan, Ginn, Dominguez, maybe Santos? They have a LOT of work to do in building the farm back up. Especially in terms of SP.
RE: regarding Kike's range  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 3:24 pm : link
In comment 15129094 KDavies said:
Quote:
not a knock on him at all, as I see the metrics, but how is that illustration helpful with the shift so prevalent? Considering a 2B can line up all over the place, I don't see that the illustration necessarily shows range, or that a 2B lined up all over the place as so often happens.


That's a good point - in theory I suppose they could pull out the chances in shifted alignments because SIS does video review to inform their metrics. I'm not sure if they did that but here's another metric from the article that adds a little more evidence to the point Simon was making with the chart.

Quote:
When you watched Hernández play second base in 2020, the thing that stood out the most was his hustle. He was aggressive in going after balls. According to charting by SIS Video Scouts, Hernández sprinted for 26 balls as a second baseman last season and successfully made the play on 22 of those attempts. His 85% success rate was easily the highest among the 20 second basemen with the most attempts last season.

Highest Success Rate on Sprints – 2020 Season

Name Plays Made/Opportunities %
Kiké Hernández 22/26 85%
Kolten Wong 32/44 73%
Keston Hiura 18/26 69%
Danny Mendick 15/22 68%
Jays  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:26 pm : link
also in on Bauer
It  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:30 pm : link
should be noted, the Dodgers are letting Hernandez walk and over the past 2 seasons 22 hitters in baseball have been worse which includes guys like Mallex Smith, Roughed Odor, Joe Panik and Rio Ruiz
Link - ( New Window )
maybe im crazy but I don't really want bauer or the Reds trade  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 3:31 pm : link
the reds trade would gut the system. That feels so much like a BVW move. Bauer I'm not opposed to just think there might be a better use of $. Unless it's sort of like when the Phillies signed Arrieta not too far off the CY for what seemed like a ridiculous steal of a deal (obviously it didn't work out that way).

I'd much rather split the remaining room they have among a bunch of good depth players. Hand is at the top of the list, a high quality utility guy like Kike/Marwin, something in CF, and then whatever is left to grab a 1 or 2 more veteran pitchers to compete in ST like Gio/Sanchez/etc.
Dodgers  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:32 pm : link
currently do not have a 3b on their roster, nor do they have a clear starting 2b with Gavin Lux expected to open at AAA.
The  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:33 pm : link
Mets have not had discussions with Trevor Bauer per Andy Martino
Bauer  
pjcas18 : 1/20/2021 3:34 pm : link
is the best use of remaining money.

the Mets traded a top 15 prospect for a JAG (or worse) pitcher because of starting pitching depth.

Also, no one knows how Syndergaard will come back

Bauer, even if you acknowledge Bauer is not a consistent TOR starter, he's the Mets #2 or #3 starter until Syndergaard comes back.

I could understand not wanting to go long-term with Bauer with his inconsistent track record, but short-term there is not better use of $$$ in my opinion.
RE: It  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 3:36 pm : link
In comment 15129202 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
should be noted, the Dodgers are letting Hernandez walk and over the past 2 seasons 22 hitters in baseball have been worse which includes guys like Mallex Smith, Roughed Odor, Joe Panik and Rio Ruiz Link - ( New Window )


I'm pretty sure the LAD expected him to get more $ than they can afford to bring him back. Interesting in the link supposedly he specifically wanted a 1 year deal where he can get 500 plate appearances.
Dodgers Rumors: Kiké Hernandez’s Reported Contract Demands Likely End His Time in LA - ( New Window )
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:36 pm : link
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
23s
Dodgers main infield target at moment is a righty-hitting infielder, and no surprise Justin Turner is the top choice. They’ve given him a chance to look around in the market but would love him back. They’ve looked at Marcus Semien but might be tough to think they could sign both.
RE: Dodgers  
KDavies : 1/20/2021 3:38 pm : link
In comment 15129206 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
currently do not have a 3b on their roster, nor do they have a clear starting 2b with Gavin Lux expected to open at AAA.


What is the deal with Lux? He was a real good prospect, then he's kind of fallen off the planet. Is it attitude issues? There was a lot of vagueness regarding him showing up late, etc.
RE: RE: It  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:38 pm : link
In comment 15129212 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15129202 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


should be noted, the Dodgers are letting Hernandez walk and over the past 2 seasons 22 hitters in baseball have been worse which includes guys like Mallex Smith, Roughed Odor, Joe Panik and Rio Ruiz Link - ( New Window )



I'm pretty sure the LAD expected him to get more $ than they can afford to bring him back. Interesting in the link supposedly he specifically wanted a 1 year deal where he can get 500 plate appearances. Dodgers Rumors: Kiké Hernandez’s Reported Contract Demands Likely End His Time in LA - ( New Window )


You don't think the Dodgers would have offered him 1 year and 500 PA's if they felt he was worthy of that? How does that compute? If anything that should be cause for concern. The team that knows him best won't give him an expanded role for 1 year when their starting 3b is a FA and he's their starter at 2b as of now.
RE: Bauer  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 3:38 pm : link
In comment 15129209 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
is the best use of remaining money.

the Mets traded a top 15 prospect for a JAG (or worse) pitcher because of starting pitching depth.

Also, no one knows how Syndergaard will come back

Bauer, even if you acknowledge Bauer is not a consistent TOR starter, he's the Mets #2 or #3 starter until Syndergaard comes back.

I could understand not wanting to go long-term with Bauer with his inconsistent track record, but short-term there is not better use of $$$ in my opinion.


"Unless it's sort of like when the Phillies signed Arrieta not too far off the CY for what seemed like a ridiculous steal of a deal (obviously it didn't work out that way)."

perhaps it was unclear in that wording but the steal with Arrieta was that he only got 3 years. The AAV was top of market. If Bauer was willing to sign a shorter deal I'd be quite excited about that.
RE: RE: Dodgers  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:40 pm : link
In comment 15129215 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15129206 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


currently do not have a 3b on their roster, nor do they have a clear starting 2b with Gavin Lux expected to open at AAA.



What is the deal with Lux? He was a real good prospect, then he's kind of fallen off the planet. Is it attitude issues? There was a lot of vagueness regarding him showing up late, etc.


The Dodgers nor Lux ever went public with why he was late but it was not believed to be disciplinary. Both he and Brendan Rodgers have been pretty awful so far as MLB players but very limited SSS so far.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 3:42 pm : link
“I took a couple days off since we canceled spring training,” he said, noting that he never contemplated opting out of the season. “That three-month break, I wouldn’t say you lose baseball instincts. But it’s just like anything else. You’ve just got to get back into it. It’s going to be crazy here any way you look at it.”
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