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NFT: Good Morning Mets fans

DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 9:40 am
-Springer a Blue Jay

-Quintana to LAA for 1 year 8. Bummed we didn’t land him at that price. Potential steal.

-Heyman says they had/have interest in Kike Hernandez but he is looking for a starting job. Maybe a platoon in CF with PT in other spots entices him?

-the new head of R& D is close with Justin Turner. Zero indication the Mets are interested but notable.

-have not shown interest in JBJ to this point

-Hand and Colome have both switched agents (Hand’s new agent does not have any Mets clients for anyone looking for that connection)
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RE: Phillies  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 5:47 pm : link
In comment 15129362 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
have offered Realmuto 5 years 110ish million.


I know he refused to sign early, but if he ends up settling for something like that I'd be disappointed they went out hot for McCann. I like everything we've heard about McCann and think his deal is completely fair but Realmuto is probably still a tier above even in a best case. to the point above in the scenario I posted above, that would have been a nice use of the $150m saved on Springer as opposed to Lindor.
geez...  
Italianju : 1/20/2021 5:55 pm : link
what happened to Chris Archer. Completely forgot about that guy.

RE: geez...  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 5:56 pm : link
In comment 15129369 Italianju said:
Quote:
what happened to Chris Archer. Completely forgot about that guy.


TOS. Almost always a career ender. Did in Harvey, the success rate coming back is near zero. Chris Young is one of the success stories...
More  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 5:56 pm : link
on TOS
Link - ( New Window )
Thanks Dan...  
Italianju : 1/20/2021 6:05 pm : link
didnt realize he had the same situation as Harvey. What a shame.
RE: Thanks Dan...  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 6:14 pm : link
In comment 15129378 Italianju said:
Quote:
didnt realize he had the same situation as Harvey. What a shame.


There may be an injury worse but TOS is up there. I’m sure with time there will be advancements but I remember going down the rabbit hole when Harvey had it.. it’s a really sad list of guys who were good and then never made it back
RE: RE: Thanks Dan...  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 6:16 pm : link
In comment 15129383 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15129378 Italianju said:


Quote:


didnt realize he had the same situation as Harvey. What a shame.



There may be an injury worse but TOS is up there. I’m sure with time there will be advancements but I remember going down the rabbit hole when Harvey had it.. it’s a really sad list of guys who were good and then never made it back


I have a friend who got it and his arm blew up about twice it's normal size. He had to have emergency surgery and it happened while he was traveling which made it even more of a nightmare.
RE: RE: Shecky  
moze1021 : 1/20/2021 6:45 pm : link
In comment 15129359 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15129352 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


"warned" us in November people expecting a free agent free for all would be disappointed.

I don't think most people expected one.

I for one (won't speak for others) prefer a methodical, deliberate, plan.

have a goal for

a) improving the major league team (my preference is focus on defense and pitching)

b) improve the farm

c) improve the behind the scenes areas - analytics, scouting, minor league philosophy, development, etc.

d) improve the fan experience (make Citi more "Mets", fanfest, old timers day, etc.)

none of it involved going hog wild in free agency




Sandy was always exceedingly patient and prudent so Shecky's warning seemed very likely.

I would actually say that Lindor + Carrasco + McCann + May + a SP via trade has already exceeded what I expected. Had you asked me to predict then I think I would have said 1 of the big 3 plus a few other mid or low level signings. Lindor is probably a level above the big 3 and Carrasco is pretty close to the level or above when factoring in how good his contract is, so I think they already added 2 top players plus a few solid mid level moves.


Yeah folks really just got emotionally attached to the idea of Springer or Bauer in a Mets uniform and for some reason aren't recognizing the Lindor is a bigger get...

My feeling has always been: this is offseason #1! Just because we have some money doesn't mean we need to sign the best free agents available THIS offseason. There will be more and there will be better... the awesome thing is that the Mets are $25M under the luxury tax and were still in the running for Springer!!

RE: RE: RE: Thanks Dan...  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 6:49 pm : link
In comment 15129384 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15129383 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 15129378 Italianju said:


Quote:


didnt realize he had the same situation as Harvey. What a shame.



There may be an injury worse but TOS is up there. I’m sure with time there will be advancements but I remember going down the rabbit hole when Harvey had it.. it’s a really sad list of guys who were good and then never made it back



I have a friend who got it and his arm blew up about twice it's normal size. He had to have emergency surgery and it happened while he was traveling which made it even more of a nightmare.


It’s not good (as I’m sure you know far better than I do). As with anything else I’m sure there will be advances but I’d bet against Archer making it back. Not trying to be cruel but it’s yet to happen so...
This is a great point Moze  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 7:19 pm : link
In comment 15129395 moze1021 said:
Quote:
Yeah folks really just got emotionally attached to the idea of Springer or Bauer in a Mets uniform and for some reason aren't recognizing the Lindor is a bigger get...

My feeling has always been: this is offseason #1! Just because we have some money doesn't mean we need to sign the best free agents available THIS offseason. There will be more and there will be better... the awesome thing is that the Mets are $25M under the luxury tax and were still in the running for Springer!!


They added arguably the best player who will switch teams this offseason and the second best pitcher. And they were still willing to offer 9 figures to the 2nd best position player on the market. That would have been like going after Nomar or Adrian Beltre even after signing Beltran and Pedro. Also sort of proves out that while they say they view the LTT as an important threshold, they are still willing to approach it or surpass in the right circumstance.
Sherman  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2021 8:13 pm : link
Said the Mets Max offer for springer was 6 for 120 and noted Sandy isn’t a huge fan of texts etc so the Mets are going to likely need a GM who is “into” the modern part of the game and communication (minus dick pics)
RE: this is just a wildass guess  
KDavies : 1/20/2021 10:31 pm : link
In comment 15129322 Dr. D said:
Quote:
but maybe it's not really the (LT) money that concerns Cohen.

Maybe, especially as a new owner, he doesn't want to be perceived (by other owners, the media, et al) as "buying a championship", like Steinbrenner was at one time.

He might not be comfortable, in his first season, being the only team owner (most likely) to surpass the LT threshold.


I agree with this. This has been my theory all along on Cohen not wanting to blow past the luxury tax right away.
Why do you think Cohen  
pjcas18 : 1/20/2021 10:53 pm : link
wouldn't want to exceed the luxury tax right away?

When the Dodgers were sold to their current ownership group they exceeded the luxury tax in their first year.

Based on what I know about Cohen (which is admittedly from Bobby Axelrod in Billions) I doubt he gives a shit what other owners think. Plus the tax goes to many of them, so IMO they'd love to see him overpay for players like Bauer and Springer and be "stuck" with them and not able to improve the team without exceeding the luxury tax. Other owners HAVE to love when a team exceeds the tax and loses.

My opinion is he's being more measured and not just buying players because he can afford it. He wants to build for the long term and isn't impetuous like fans.

I don't think Cohen cares about appearances if it leads to success  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2021 10:56 pm : link
I think the greater fear is that teams who go crazy to win the offseason don't always win in regular season and postseason.

LAD won a WS after trading for Betts so obviously I'm not saying they should pack up and head to PSL without making any other moves or send back Lindor, just that building a winning organization is hard to do overnight. The pieces that get added have to get added carefully even if it's "just money". There is always an opportunity cost. The pieces need to fit together and there has to be a connective philosophy that produces more than the sum of the parts.
pj and Eric on Li  
Dr. D : 1/21/2021 9:22 am : link
you could be right. We've seen too many times in different sports where the offseason champs fail when the season starts (I wonder if there's a subconscious over-confidence among the players on some of the super teams that have been put together. I also think offseason champs often acquire big names that are past their primes and sometimes the big names are square pegs crammed into round holes on their new team).

We agree that maybe it's not the actual tax $ that Cohen is afraid of. The concern is spending unwisely for the long term.

Maybe if Springer was 27-28 instead of pushing 32, they would've spent whatever it took.
Braves  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 10:03 am : link
In on Realmuto. That would... suck
All  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 10:11 am : link
Due respect (and it’s fine they passed on Springer) but he won’t be 32 until September. Kind of unfair to say “pushing 32” when that’s 8 months from now aka a “full” season of being 31
RE: Phillies  
TyreeHelmet : 1/21/2021 10:21 am : link
In comment 15129362 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
have offered Realmuto 5 years 110ish million.


If he signs for anywhere close to this deal then the Mets are going to regret not being more aggressive in their pursuit of Realmuto.

4/40 for McCann vs 5/110 for Realmuto is really a no brainer given the difference in player. And it will really hurt to see him with the Braves.

I also don't believe the fear of being the only owner over the luxury tax played into Cohen's decision making at all.
yeah if Realmuto goes that affordably I'd be disappointed  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 10:24 am : link
I don't know if there's anything they could have done differently, they were aggressive with Springer prior to the Lindor deal and it didn't matter. They tried to engage Realmuto early and he said he was waiting.

I like McCann and understand their aggression required a willing partner but would still be disappointed. Especially if ends up in the division.
informative update from Martino on pretty much everything  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 10:28 am : link
Also the answer to the above questions about their approach to spending:

Quote:
Yes, Steve Cohen has nearly unlimited resources. But neither he nor Sandy Alderson wants to commit so many of those resources, not to mention roster spots, and limit flexibility for so many years.


Also interestingly both Cain and Hernandez are mentioned as possibilities they are exploring for CF. I want Hernandez but not necessarily as a CF, so I'm hoping there's a way they can get them both.

The agent switch with Hand doesn't seem to bode well but who knows.
Mets chose the possibility of Michael Conforto tomorrow over George Springer today Also updates on Jackie Bradley Jr., Brad Hand, and more - ( New Window )
Martino  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 10:29 am : link
claims the Mets chose Conforto over Springer (basically) once they signed Lindor.

They love Conforto and want to extend him and they want to extend Lindor and didn't think they can do both with Springer.

Also, says they have multiple options being kicked around for CF and expects that decision is not yet made.

I'm paraphrasing from the article.

Link below.
link - ( New Window )
I'm not sure I buy not being able to afford both as much as  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 10:34 am : link
they were worried about 2 guys who would be expensive into their mid-30's (1 having to man a premium defensive spot).

Put another way if both were 26 I think they'd have no issue with it. Similarly I'd imagine Lindor being 27 was a big part of his ascent to the top of their priority list. The way things have gone in all sports I can't say I blame them for prioritizing youth.
RE: All  
Dr. D : 1/21/2021 10:35 am : link
In comment 15129659 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Due respect (and it’s fine they passed on Springer) but he won’t be 32 until September. Kind of unfair to say “pushing 32” when that’s 8 months from now aka a “full” season of being 31

You're right. I should've said if he was 27-28 instead of 31..
RE: I'm not sure I buy not being able to afford both as much as  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 10:37 am : link
In comment 15129686 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
they were worried about 2 guys who would be expensive into their mid-30's (1 having to man a premium defensive spot).

Put another way if both were 26 I think they'd have no issue with it. Similarly I'd imagine Lindor being 27 was a big part of his ascent to the top of their priority list. The way things have gone in all sports I can't say I blame them for prioritizing youth.


I prefer the way Martino phrased it - it's not about not being able to afford both, but signing both (Conforto and Springer) provides limited flexibility.

What would be a disaster is if neither Conforto or Lindor are extended with the Mets and they lost out on Springer because of those two.
RE: RE: I'm not sure I buy not being able to afford both as much as  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 10:40 am : link
In comment 15129693 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15129686 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


they were worried about 2 guys who would be expensive into their mid-30's (1 having to man a premium defensive spot).

Put another way if both were 26 I think they'd have no issue with it. Similarly I'd imagine Lindor being 27 was a big part of his ascent to the top of their priority list. The way things have gone in all sports I can't say I blame them for prioritizing youth.



I prefer the way Martino phrased it - it's not about not being able to afford both, but signing both (Conforto and Springer) provides limited flexibility.

What would be a disaster is if neither Conforto or Lindor are extended with the Mets and they lost out on Springer because of those two.


I'm not really worried about losing guys we want now. They will be willing to pay the cost. I'd imagine it's probably how a Maple Leafs fan feels about their stars. If they want them they aren't going anywhere.

But totally agree that they are prioritizing flexibility. And I think that's 100% the correct way to do things.
RE: Braves  
Shecky : 1/21/2021 10:43 am : link
In comment 15129646 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In on Realmuto. That would... suck

This is just a guess, but my guess is there isn't any fire there, maybe not even smoke. I don't see Realmuto having much interest in Atlanta.
RE: RE: Braves  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2021 10:46 am : link
In comment 15129703 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 15129646 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In on Realmuto. That would... suck


This is just a guess, but my guess is there isn't any fire there, maybe not even smoke. I don't see Realmuto having much interest in Atlanta.


Should we order our Kike jerseys yet or no?
RE: RE: RE: I'm not sure I buy not being able to afford both as much as  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 10:51 am : link
In comment 15129696 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15129693 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 15129686 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


they were worried about 2 guys who would be expensive into their mid-30's (1 having to man a premium defensive spot).

Put another way if both were 26 I think they'd have no issue with it. Similarly I'd imagine Lindor being 27 was a big part of his ascent to the top of their priority list. The way things have gone in all sports I can't say I blame them for prioritizing youth.



I prefer the way Martino phrased it - it's not about not being able to afford both, but signing both (Conforto and Springer) provides limited flexibility.

What would be a disaster is if neither Conforto or Lindor are extended with the Mets and they lost out on Springer because of those two.



I'm not really worried about losing guys we want now. They will be willing to pay the cost. I'd imagine it's probably how a Maple Leafs fan feels about their stars. If they want them they aren't going anywhere.

But totally agree that they are prioritizing flexibility. And I think that's 100% the correct way to do things.


I'm not worrying about it, simply stating a fact, that giving up Gimenez, Rosario and Wolff for a Lindor rental and missing out on Springer in anticipation of extending Lindor and Conforto will be a disaster if those extensions don't happen.

And Boras is so savvy he knows this. Good thing is Sandy is pretty savvy too.

Should be interest to see how it plays out.
Not  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 11:20 am : link
a big Castro fan but 2 years 7 guaranteed is a steal for Houston
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 11:27 am : link
Per @martinonyc Keeping Conforto was a major part of the Springer pursuit equation (good), they have (so far) been unwilling to go more than 1 year to Hand and JBJ is asking for a LARGE number (PASS)
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 11:31 am : link
wasn't keen on JBJ to begin with but if he's looking for a huge deal I wouldn't even consider him. Considering how quiet his market has been, I believe Martino.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 11:32 am : link
think the Mets may pivot to upgrading 3b vs. CF.
RE: I  
KDavies : 1/21/2021 11:39 am : link
In comment 15129794 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
think the Mets may pivot to upgrading 3b vs. CF.


Don't really want them trading for Suarez due to prospect cost. Aren't going to trade for Arenado's contract.

Free agents are pretty thin. Perhaps a Semien could play there or a LaStella. Is there anyone I am missing?

RE: RE: I  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2021 11:47 am : link
In comment 15129804 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15129794 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


think the Mets may pivot to upgrading 3b vs. CF.



Don't really want them trading for Suarez due to prospect cost. Aren't going to trade for Arenado's contract.

Free agents are pretty thin. Perhaps a Semien could play there or a LaStella. Is there anyone I am missing?


Bryant?
Semien  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 11:49 am : link
Turner, LaStella as FA's would all be upgrades, Bryant, Arenado, Suarez as potential trade targets. FAR better options than CF.
Deeper  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 11:50 am : link
you have guys like Eduardo Escobar
Have  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 11:52 am : link
to believe the Mets are concerned with Hand's red flags as holding firm at 1 year would imply that given Brach/Familia/Betances (while not good) are all FA after the season.
I'm  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 11:53 am : link
not even clear why people believed JBJ would only get 2 years 16-20? He's the same age as Springer. He's obviously nowhere near as good but he's a 12+ million guy and 3-4 years is a pretty fair ask (I wouldn't want him anywhere near that).
Kris Bryant - How is he as a defensive player?  
NYG27 : 1/21/2021 11:55 am : link
Bryant is only 29, love his hitting. Although I haven't seen enough Cubs games to get a good gauge on his defensive skills at third base.

Anyone who has seen him play a lot as a defender, any feedback? Is he a plus glove or just league average?
what would Bryant cost prospect wise?  
KDavies : 1/21/2021 11:57 am : link
he's got a nearly $20 million contract, and is coming of an injury plagued season where he barely beat the Mendoza line. JD Davis and a lower prospect or so, fine. But not trading a top 6-7 prospect for him.
Remember  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 12:03 pm : link
this with Bryant, if he has even a decent year, you offer him the QO and he likely walks and you get a high pick, that has to be part of any reluctance in giving up a "decent" prospect.
RE: Kris Bryant - How is he as a defensive player?  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 12:03 pm : link
In comment 15129835 NYG27 said:
Quote:
Bryant is only 29, love his hitting. Although I haven't seen enough Cubs games to get a good gauge on his defensive skills at third base.

Anyone who has seen him play a lot as a defender, any feedback? Is he a plus glove or just league average?


Average to slightly below at 3b. Big guy so that comes with some issues.
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 12:06 pm : link
give up Ginn for Bryant. If Bryant is somehow a complete disaster then you gave up a solid prospect not in the top 100 in baseball. If he's good you will get back a pick (or keep him long term). I'd also have no qualms giving Turner 2 years with a 3rd year option/buyout (3rd year only because he has 2 on the table from LAD).
RE: Have  
Shecky : 1/21/2021 12:22 pm : link
In comment 15129829 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
to believe the Mets are concerned with Hand's red flags as holding firm at 1 year would imply that given Brach/Familia/Betances (while not good) are all FA after the season.

Not the only team...

Re: Bryant. Worth a flyer, absolutely. Buttttt Analytics are convinced he's done, though I'm not convinced he can't make the adjustments. Secondly, pick him up and youre closer to the Tax. It isn't the financial penalty, but lets say you go over and your strategy is to recoup picks if/when Bryant, Thor etc leave? Well, your picks, pool $ and IFA $$ are all SHOT. That's a major concern about going over. Go over for a final piece, no prob though...
Shecky  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 12:26 pm : link
there is no pick penalty for going over the tax, and the pick penalty is minimal even for a repeat offender.
Shecky  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 12:27 pm : link
there is no pick penalty for going over the tax, and the pick penalty is minimal even for a repeat offender.
Repeat  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 12:29 pm : link
offender has their first pick... drop 10 slots. That's a very, very minimal issue, not one that would stop any team from doing so.
Martino  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2021 12:33 pm : link
continues to push the idea that the Mets view Lindor as a rental and will see what happens in terms of an extension.
Suarez is an absolute steal  
ZGiants98 : 1/21/2021 12:36 pm : link
At the money he’s making on his contract. It’s almost criminal. There’s no shortage of prospects I’d be willing to part with to bring him in.
I'll  
Shecky : 1/21/2021 12:41 pm : link
stick to my points ;)
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