-Springer a Blue Jay
-Quintana to LAA for 1 year 8. Bummed we didn’t land him at that price. Potential steal.
-Heyman says they had/have interest in Kike Hernandez but he is looking for a starting job. Maybe a platoon in CF with PT in other spots entices him?
-the new head of R& D is close with Justin Turner. Zero indication the Mets are interested but notable.
-have not shown interest in JBJ to this point
-Hand and Colome have both switched agents (Hand’s new agent does not have any Mets clients for anyone looking for that connection)
You think a 10 slot drop for a repeat offender is substantial? I guess agree to disagree. Picking 34nd vs. 24th is a minimal penalty.
12:07 How much should we read in to Brand Hand’s velo dip? Still was great last year of course.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:08 It's a concern, especially as it was the second year in a row. What's a REALLY big concern is the fact that you pair that with the fact that he very suddenly lost a quarter of his swinging strikes in one fell swoop
It's unusual, more so given his age (28 in April) and the fact he's been playing 3b his entire pro career and physical limitations. But if you want an example Arenado went from an iffy minor league defensive player to one of the best ever to do it.
12:21 I don't think *huge* but they'd have roles
I'd much prefer McNeil/Lindor/Wong left to right over Davis/Lindor/McNeil
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
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2m
Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list ranked:
-Francisco Alvarez No. 48
-Ronny Mauricio No. 65
-Matthew Allan No. 98
Baseball Prospectus ranked:
-Mauricio No. 42
-Allan No. 79
-Alvarez No. 84
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(like JDD) significantly improving their defense in the majors?
It's unusual, more so given his age (28 in April) and the fact he's been playing 3b his entire pro career and physical limitations. But if you want an example Arenado went from an iffy minor league defensive player to one of the best ever to do it.
Thanks Dan. Doesn't look good long term for JDD at 3rd
Shecky,
I'm honestly confused. A repeat offender has their first pick dropped 10 slots. I assume you're referencing something else?
"For the most part, the penalties for exceeding the CBT are fine-based. A first-time exceeder has to pay a 20 percent fine on its overage; a two-time exceeder has to pay a 30 percent fine; beyond that it's a 50 percent fine. There are also surtaxes for exceeding by $20 million (12 percent); $40 million (42.5 percent); and repeating over $40 million (45 percent).
A team that goes more than $40 million over also has its highest draft pick moved down 10 spots provided it isn't picking in the top six. In those cases, which would seem to be rare, the team's second selection would be dropped 10 spots."
12:21 I don't think *huge* but they'd have roles
I'd much prefer McNeil/Lindor/Wong left to right over Davis/Lindor/McNeil
I completely agree that upgrading 2b is the easier way to improve overall IF defense. But it depends on what they think of McNeil at 3b. He was good 1 year and bad 1 year in limited action. If he's comfortable there I'd do it though.
Also why I think signing Kike is a better hedge because if McNeil struggles at 3b you can get Kike ABs somewhere else whereas Wong is likely a 2b only.
Conforto has been average or better since day one by OAA, so while pre-MLB scouting reports may have been down on him, he has been "good" since day one. JDD was viewed as a DH type even coming out of college, and has stunk defensively since day one. This is from his draft report
"Defense: 45/45
Davis is getting drafted on the basis of his bat, so don't expect much from him with the glove; lack of athleticism doesn't give him much lateral quickness; displays poor reaction times; can make all the routine plays and just has to catch the ball as a first baseman. "
I'd suggest the 28 year olds who suddenly were passable defensively at a legit defensive position ie not 1b is a very, very small list.
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You’re much smarter than that Dan, I know you are. You know it isn’t a ten slot slide... I’ll just leave it at that.
Shecky,
I'm honestly confused. A repeat offender has their first pick dropped 10 slots. I assume you're referencing something else?
"For the most part, the penalties for exceeding the CBT are fine-based. A first-time exceeder has to pay a 20 percent fine on its overage; a two-time exceeder has to pay a 30 percent fine; beyond that it's a 50 percent fine. There are also surtaxes for exceeding by $20 million (12 percent); $40 million (42.5 percent); and repeating over $40 million (45 percent).
A team that goes more than $40 million over also has its highest draft pick moved down 10 spots provided it isn't picking in the top six. In those cases, which would seem to be rare, the team's second selection would be dropped 10 spots."
Draft compensation pool reduction from sliding back? If I'm reading this list right a 10 pick drop would have cost us almost $3m in pool money this year had it been incurred.
Here are the 2020 Draft pools and bonus values - ( New Window )
It's not meaningful enough to have it stop you from being concerned about being a repeat offender at the big league level.
So yeah, it's a very minimal penalty all things considered.
Either way I don't think going over is a big deal and whatever his concerns Shecky said he'd go over for a final piece type of move. I think they viewed Springer that way and I think that's why everyone was obviously in favor of that. For a back end starter or depth pickup though I can see why the difference in who can be picked up cheaper (like Luchessi was) may not be worth the extra $ and draft capital out the door.
Obviously you want a good farm system (it's critical to helping you win at the major league level), you want good analytics, good operations, good development, etc.
but the goal, why we are all here, is to win at the major league level.
If as a team you exceed the luxury tax threshold it should be a strategic decision, made because you feel like exceeding that LT enables you to get over the hump and win - AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL.
Yes, there is a cost, but IMO that cost is well worth it.
You rarely see a team with major league success and a top tier minor league team. It happens, but it's rare.
so I see the cycle going - do what you can to improve the major league club, do it in a manner that protects the farm to the extent possible (even try and improve the farm too) but when you've built a contender (like the Mets) you can make that cobra strike and do what is necessary to put your team over the top. If that's sign a player LT, trade prospects, and/or exceed the LT - you do it and you are happy to do it.
The Wipons were never willing to go to that next level, but still came up just short in a WS - the difference is they build band-aid teams not sustained for the long haul.
And that's what I'm looking for now.
Either way I don't think going over is a big deal and whatever his concerns Shecky said he'd go over for a final piece type of move. I think they viewed Springer that way and I think that's why everyone was obviously in favor of that. For a back end starter or depth pickup though I can see why the difference in who can be picked up cheaper (like Luchessi was) may not be worth the extra $ and draft capital out the door.
The point is 700,000 in draft pool money loss would be extremely low on the totem pole of issues in deciding to be a repeat lux tax offender. They would have lost about 1.5 million AND a pick for signing any FA tied to a QO and we know they were IN on Springer and were "in" on Realmuto (he wasn't looking to sign quickly) that tells us this penalty if of little concern vs. others.
By my math and their lists, Mets should have a top 10 player at every position except 3B.
Doesn’t mean anything but kinda cool.
By my math and their lists, Mets should have a top 10 player at every position except 3B.
Doesn’t mean anything but kinda cool.
Yes and no, they have Nimmo in CF so assuming he's not, they also won't have a top 10 CF (or are unlikely to).
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Top 10 at every position with Alonso ranking today.
By my math and their lists, Mets should have a top 10 player at every position except 3B.
Doesn’t mean anything but kinda cool.
Yes and no, they have Nimmo in CF so assuming he's not, they also won't have a top 10 CF (or are unlikely to).
Yup just stating what their lists are. I do agree with them though that regardless of defense, Nimmo likely would finish in the top 10 in WAR in CF over a healthy season. His offense accelerates faster as WAR is position specific. His offense, while still great, isn’t worth as much in LF.
He likely won’t be in CF, but I still find it interesting.
Dodgers I agree with, the rarity, built for long-term success.
Let's see the rest sustain the major league success.
The small market teams generally do well until they are forced to trade their good players before having to pay them.
Maybe some like SD is flipping that by spending on players like Machado (though still mostly players on low salaries), and for TB, CLE, MIN etc. I'll believe it when I see it - my sense is they'll be competitive while they have cost controlled young talent.
Good discussion, that IMO takes more than a season or two to reach conclusions because it takes looking back and seeing what they did
Yup. I think looking at it also reaffirms a 3B/2B is the smarter target now(McNeil plays the other spot). As you’ve mentioned there’s a huge drop off from Springer left available while there are plenty of goof IF targets. I think we could get by with a Marisnick/Nimmo platoon if need be if the IF was rock solid.
It's bs. No way do they trade for Lindor without intentions of signing him to a long-term deal.
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What is any of Cohen's talk or money for if they let Lindor walk for "draft picks". That is the opposite of who Steve Cohen represented himself to be.
It's bs. No way do they trade for Lindor without intentions of signing him to a long-term deal.
And trade 2 shortstops in the process.
Turner, Hand, and Marisnick. Invite Gio to ST. Offseason over.
@JonHeyman
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1m
Mets are hiring Kevin Howard as farm director. He was Indians hitting coordinator.
@mets
?
The point is 700,000 in draft pool money loss would be extremely low on the totem pole of issues in deciding to be a repeat lux tax offender. They would have lost about 1.5 million AND a pick for signing any FA tied to a QO and we know they were IN on Springer and were "in" on Realmuto (he wasn't looking to sign quickly) that tells us this penalty if of little concern vs. others.
Isn't the bold the exact point? They were IN on Springer, even if it made it very likely they were going to get close or go over the LTT. Doesn't that prove that they are willing to be aggressive? They had every excuse to say they were out on him after acquiring Lindor/Carrasco if they wanted to.
And further isn't the Springer situation a perfect example of why you want to have flexibility so that way when a player of his ability comes along you can go after them without penalty?
I mean the biggest spending teams seem to operate this exact same way. They are willing to go over if they have to but they don't go over just to do so. They all seem to try to preserve flexibility and avoid repeat offender status.
Carton & Evan said rumor is 5 years $185mil.
Didn't say where he heard it from
If they sign him for multiple years, I wonder if on the flip side they'd consider moving Stroman, since that would bring the chances of resigning him down to 0.