And keep in mind this is what I believe might happen and how the Giants might go.
Free Agency
First Golladay, Robinson and Godwin all either tagged or signed to a long term deal. (even if they want out they will not be allowed to just walk (only team in cap with limited cap space is Det and they need to keep him since they have no starting wrs on the roster.
Second DG resigns LW and not Tomlinson. DG traded for him and he put up the numbers to stay so he gets his long term deal. I do not think DG will allocate to both since we have other needs and still have Dexter Lawrence who can step in nicely.
Third we sign Corey Davis to a long term deal somewhere between 13-14 mil. Having looked at the current per year deals he is on the same slot as wrs like Landry, Diggs before this year and Thielen.
We also sign a ER either Ngakoue or Judon. I doubt that Baltimore signs both. We could also take a flyer on Leonard Floyd but not sure he is on the same level as the other two without another stud pass rusher. This is also not a great draft for top pass rushers (IMHO).
Draft
Rd 1 Drafting 11th I see these players gone by then 3 QBs Sewell, Rousseau, Smith, Chase, Pitts, Surtain, Parsons
I would love to see us trade down with so many teams needing qbs but for now we stay put and draft Caleb Farley CB VT. Farley will be a good 2nd cb for the next two years and he will learn great things from Graham and Bradberry. By his third year we let Bradberry go and he becomes our #1 cb. (for the record I do not like Paye, he is from Michigan, did not have a good year, and more suited for the 4-3).
Rd 2 I can see us replacing Tomlinson with another DT or getting another wr like Amon Ra St Brown or someone else. I think the other top TE (kid from Penn State is gone) and we keep EE for one more year.
Don't care if you disagree, this is just my thoughts at this time.
Wyatt Teller may be the top Guard in the league
Kyle Fuller
Terrell Edmunds
Duane Brown
Adonis Alexander
Chuck Clark
Tremaine Edmunds
Kendall Fuller
Logan Thomas
I'm sure there are more key contributors missing
Yeah, I'm not wild about WR Davis either. I didn't see him do s*** in the playoff and saw drops in a couple of regular season games. He went to Western Mich like Beal, right? Maybe those guys just underwhelm.
Related, a raw CB out of VT (Farley) at #11? Please no. I feel like we get burned by VT guys -- even if not their fault (Wilson), it just doesn't work out. Who was the last great VT player? Bruce Smith? Vick???
Kam Chancellor...Duane Brown has been a very good left tackle.
VT has had busts at CB like Jimmy Williams ("$1M body, $.10 head) and our Hosley.
VT has had two CBs go in the top half of the 1st round...D'Angelo Hall and Kyle Fuller. Hall never lived up to the hype but did make the Pro Bowl 3x and played for 10+ seasons. Kyle Fuller has developed into one of the better CBs over the past two seasons after a rocky first two seasons.
I'm reluctant about Farley because of his lack of experience at CB. He came to VT as a HS QB, showed a lot of promise at WR his redshirt year, suffered an ACL tear, and was moved over to CB because Bud wanted him. His first season was rough followed by an all conference season in 2019. He sat out this season over program Covid testing concerns and he lives with his Father. Farley lost his Mother to cancer a couple years ago, so his decision to skip 2020 is even more understandable.
If he does get drafted, Bradberry being #1 helps the transition for the next couple years. The measurables are certainly there and may be the reason why we don't have to make a choice on him at 11. Plus, he is a high character guy, hard worker and well thought of per VTFB contacts.
I would expect a nice WR dropping into 3rd RD and in 4th we find Tomilsons replacement.....
Edge definitely coming from FA....none jimp out in draft
This. The Carolina thing is something not to be ignored with DG, too.
Still not wild about Farley especially after some of the comments here.
CB is a position that takes time to blossom into, sometimes 3 years. Guys don’t just get taken in the 1st rd and start shutting down WRs in this league. Why let a guy make the mistakes and learn on our expense?
We already have a stud in Bradberry, we don’t need to invest so much in the second CB opposite him, can get by with lower resources invested there.
Finishing the OL, adding pass rush dimension, and giving DJ targets on the outside are my top offseason priorities.
Having said that, interesting thoughts and definitely raise some points for debate so thank you for posting.
Yeah but...
A condition listed in the OP was that Chase, Smith and Pitts are ALL off the board by 10.
So, you happy with Waddle?
I go back and forth on Tomlinson. The key with him is what do they think of BJ Hill?
One thing I guess is almost a surety is that they can't and won't re-sign LW and DT this year, and then hold onto BJ Hill in 2022 and going forward from there. Then Dex comes up at the latest in 2024 and maybe looking for an extionsion befire then.
Is Fantastic!
Would be great to add him to our receiver corp!
That means the Giants get one of:
Surtain
Farley
Pitts
Paye
Rousseau
Barmore
I'd be fine with them picking Surtain (really solidify the defense), then go WR or TE in round 2.
If it's WR, do it. If it's a DL to back fill losing Tomlinson, so be it.
Not seeing a WR UFA answer unless one shakes free unexpectedly. The top guys aren't legit #1's especially in terms of the dollars they will command. You could make a football case for signing Robinson, but the dollars will be off the charts and we've got a ton of needs.
Not so sure they open the vaults for an Edge either, and at these price points both Ravens players are risky signings.
Draft, they could go CB at #11 and WR or DT in the second, for sure.
It's funny I watched a lot of Titans football this year with the sole purpose of focusing on Davis who we all know is a pending FA to be. Every time a bigger WR of theirs made a big play, I would squint my eyes and hope to see Davis on the jersey only to see Brown. They both look alike, same body type, play outside, but Brown is the only one worth anything. He's quite good. Davis is a jag.
I think they go after Golladay and let Tomlinson walk unless he doesn't get any offers, which is more possible than many here think, in my view. I don't think Tomlinson is a difference maker and the NFL might just agree. IF he doesn't get any offers he comes back here. IF he does leave, the Giants will draft a guy early, something they might do even if he stays. And I think they draft a more explosive (3/4) DE rather than a DT. They have bodies to replace Tomlinson already. They need to upgrade the athleticism more than they just need to replace his production.
Big money spent on FA WR. Draft resources go the OL and defense. RB might be picked within rounds 2-4. That's my prediction.
Honestly, nothing would shock me this off-season. But my gut says they like Jones and the defense and they know the O needs playmakers and better OL play. THE OL might just need another off-season of coaching and development. No development will help the WRs. They need talent.
Draft: almost anything will do although would ensure a Day 1 or Day 2 pick is another WR.
They are hitting the reset button. The last thing they need is an expensive 28-year old #1 WR with a big contract. And on top of that "football reality" they are notoriously cheap.
We can debate the merits of each WR and that's a separate argument, but there's a great chance he shakes free.
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Total agree with Farley and the Penn St TE in 2nd....
I would expect a nice WR dropping into 3rd RD and in 4th we find Tomilsons replacement.....
Edge definitely coming from FA....none jimp out in draft
This. The Carolina thing is something not to be ignored with DG, too.
He only makes sense for Gettleman just like David Mayo and Jonathan Stewart. It doesn’t make sense for the Giants who need a true number one receiver. Not a Golden Tate/Sterling Shepard clone. No more half measures. No more slot receivers. Thank you.
That said, Robinson isn't coming in here and making this a top passing offense. There are too many issues with the offense elsewhere.
A ball-control offense will make the defense even better and reduce turnovers. The needs: Two-way TE, another stud OL, speed at receiver.
Another good CB will help them get off the field on 3rd downs. We allowed too many really long drives that wore out the defense this year. A linebacker who can cover/blitz would be a great addition.
So all this means: I would prioritize CB over edge.
Our pass rush was OK. There are reasons to think it could get better: Carter, X-man, young LBS (Coughlan, Brown, Crowder) a full season of McKinney.
Better coverage will lead to more sacks/PD and get us off the field on 3rd down.
I would sign BOTH DTs and make that the core of the defense for the next three-plus years.
So in the draft, I would go BPA regardless of position (other than safety). I would think that value will line up with need for a cornerback, a speed receiver, a linebacker, or an OL in the first three rounds. (Love Surtain, Parsons, but not sure they will be there at #11). A trade down for an extra #2 may be appealing, but that will NEVER happen.
I would sign Robinson if available and otherwise use Free Agency to get another TE and build depth on the OL, CB, ILB.
My ideal scenario is Golladay and Thuney and then some good value signings at Edge, perhaps Carl Lawson for reasonable dollars.
Diggs was a very productive WR in Minny who became upset with his involvement in the gameplan. Davis has disappeared from games, especially big one, not because of the gameplan, but because he's not doing well.
In the final drives of the playoff game this year - he was on the sidelines.
He's not a #1 and shouldn't be relied on as one.
Further you're spending a #1 pick on a CB when we already have a #1 CB so that isn't meeting our needs efficiently. We have high picks in rounds 2 and 3 that can be used to bolster an already very good secondary.
A second lock down corner semi-mitigates lack of a bonafide ER. Surtain and Farley would be very good choices.
I may look at Ptts, also.
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Further you're spending a #1 pick on a CB when we already have a #1 CB so that isn't meeting our needs efficiently. We have high picks in rounds 2 and 3 that can be used to bolster an already very good secondary.
A second lock down corner semi-mitigates lack of a bonafide ER. Surtain and Farley would be very good choices.
At what cost though. Taking a top CB at 11 over a similarly talented WR. That kind of WR would improve the entire WR corps. You could still get solid CB talent round 2.
A.J. Brown is stud - FYI: Just got minor procedure done re: knees.
link - ( New Window )
- absolute NO on Davis. People remember his size/speed combo from when he was drafted and forget his 4 unremarkable years in the league. Thats a signing the Jets usually make.
Give me Curtis Samuels who is cheaper, mor of a game breaker, can play anywhere on the offense similar to Tyreek and has gotten better every year.
-We DON'T need just any edge! Rousseau looks like he has elite potential, can resmble JPP and be the both eays DE we have missed since the man of three first names left us. Parsons has more versatility and can help both levels of the D. But having a designated EDGE target is wrong IMO.
- Signing both Tomlinson and LW has always been a luxury, but lets see how the market plays out. DT is very good. But not the end all be all.
I would love Rousseau, Parsons, Chase Surtain or Barmore. I want to think at least one will be available, but I dont know.
The point is, signing a name WR or drafting one for need is the absolute wrong approach.
Davis would be a massive mistake to me. The track record shows what he is and that is not worth a large contract
Rousseau is a huge risk with only 14 college games. Looking good against Savannah Stat, FIU, LaTech, Central Michigan, Duke. Did he go against any NFL caliber Olineman
I think the 4 QBs, 3 WR, Sewell, Parsons, 1 CB are picked top 10. That leaves a few options. Pitts is intriguing, but I have zero confidence they would utilize him as a weapon.
I could see the Giants drafting the CB that is there or an OL. They have the LT and C. They can get by at LG. They could get the RG of the future or go RT. Not glamorous but never a bad thing
Saying all that the Eagles just seem like they would pick Rousseau. Curry and Graham will be 33 and Barnett has missed games every year. Plus they have drafted WR early a bunch. They are the wild card team to me
I could imagine them grabbing Pitts since I think Ertz is an FA coming up. Adding to their DL won't help Wentz, will it? Or an OL of choice. Not sure what they think.of Dillard...
Samuel would be best utilized as a slot WR/Swiss Army knife guy. If Slayton can be a deep threat and we can get a solid #1 in the offseason, Samuel can be a more versatile Shepard. A guy who can get the ball on sweeps and a guy who can win in the slot.
Utilized correctly, he could be as effective as Beasley has been in Buffalo with the added benefit of being able to get the ball on runs too.
Allen Robinson (if they're going to take the gamble and pay big, he's the guy), Slayton, Sterling and a premium draft pick looks good for 2021.
Allen Robinson (if they're going to take the gamble and pay big, he's the guy), Slayton, Sterling and a premium draft pick looks good for 2021.
I think this is exactly right. Slayton, Shepard and a WR with our #1 pick (if the talent is there) sets up up for the future and helps elevate the entire WR corps. The FA WR that could do the same will cost a fortune.
That's my thought as well. Although, I'd pick Waddle over Rousseau.
I think Waddle may be worth the 11 pick but what do I know.
Seeing depth at WR that will extent into the second round, and then look DL/OL moving forward.
Boylhart disagrees...
full Farley profile - ( New Window )
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wanting to be multiple, which I highly doubt. Farley is a man corner, a potentially elite one, but what does he look like in zone? Can't imagine very good as it's something Bud Foster doesn't really deploy and he sat out this year. He's also a poor tackler which also another strike for his ability to play zone. Also if he's anything else like the players they recruit for defense over there, probably not that bright. Another strike for him playing zone.
Boylhart disagrees...
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Caleb is a smart, athletic corner, with outstanding overall athletic talent. He has the length and strength to outduel any size opponent when the ball is in the air to intercept the ball. He has very good speed and the change of direction agility to run back punts and kicks on special teams. He is a good tackler and comes up quickly to support the run. Caleb has the leadership skills and tackling skills to play the free safety position. He is also an outstanding zone coverage defensive back, who has excellent instincts and special awareness to make impact plays. Caleb shows leadership skills through his play on the field and in zone coverage communicates well with his teammates.
full Farley profile - ( New Window )
I went to VT once upon a time so I watch them quite a bit. Not sure what the hell Boylhard is watching. Guy is glue in man coverage, but his tackling needs work, and they barely played zone under Foster. Lots of really bad tackles and misses. The guys technique is honestly a mess what he put out there. Problem is there is so little film on him because of injuries and opting out which is a giant red flag. He's like a better version of Greedy Williams, I doubt he's as high come draft time, similar to Greedy. He's way too boom or bust and there are certainly a lot of better prosepcts. If we draft this guy or Rosseau for that matter, I'm having Eli Apple and Erik Flowers flashbacks. Honestly, we never know, but I'd personally lose faith in this operation.