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Lessons presented using mock draft simulators.

BelieveJJ : 1/26/2021 2:51 pm
To be honest, most of the the mocks I ran were on a very simple and easy to use simulator - PFN'S basic version.

Of course there's some crazy way unlikely outcomes that pop up if one runs it enough times, like this one LOL!

11) J Chase WR LSU
42) J Oweh, ER PSU
76) G Newsome CB N'western
109) S Wade CB OSU
174) A Jackson OT Iowa
178) R Rochell CB Cent. Ark.

It was incredible luck to land Chase
at 11 and Oweh at 42; neither one of them was available at those slots more than once over 10 or so reps. That draft also lines up as an incredible accumulation of value vs The Huddle Report's Top 150...
The above mock is about as happy a marriage of value and need as I could even fantasize.

One trend that IMO had some validity, based on the depth of position groups at WR, CB and OL was the relative quality of those position players accross later rounds - particularly among CBs and occasionally the WRs in the middle rounds.

I typically refused trades, but the following mock had an opportunity or two to trade back slightly that I couldn't refuse. It's also at least somewhat more realistic than the mock I posted above.

11) M Parsons LB/ER PSU
42) T Marshall WR LSU
76) L Eichenberg OL ND
trade back one slot to acquire extra pick
110) A Robinson CB UCF
172) I Mukuamu CB SC
174) R Rochell CB Cent ARK
178) F Darby WR Ariz.St.U

Edge rusher was about the hardest position to fill if I did not grab one at 11. And I never saw a nice value pick at RB, that I wouldn't pass up for a different player at another position.

The most commonly avaliable players at 11 that IMO FIT for the GMen were

Pitts
Parsons
Waddle

I don't really think those first two, Pitts or Parsons, will be on the board at 11, but that's what the mock generator suggested over and over.

I think the rankings are all effed up at this point  
KDavies : 1/26/2021 3:07 pm : link
I did one and got the following:

1. Micah Parsons
2. Terrance Marshall
3. Israel Mukuamu
4. Zaven Collins
6. Kadarius Toney
6. Levi Onwuzurike
7. Jaelan Phillips

To say that's impossible would be an understatement
RE: I think the rankings are all effed up at this point  
Section331 : 1/26/2021 3:10 pm : link
In comment 15135022 KDavies said:
Quote:
I did one and got the following:

1. Micah Parsons
2. Terrance Marshall
3. Israel Mukuamu
4. Zaven Collins
6. Kadarius Toney
6. Levi Onwuzurike
7. Jaelan Phillips

To say that's impossible would be an understatement


You can say that again! Collins in the 4th? Toney in the 6th? LOL.
It isn't perfect  
Mike in NY : 1/26/2021 3:11 pm : link
But I like Fanspeak's simulator if you choose a good draft board and the "Difficult" setting you tend to eliminate most of the weirdness except where your draft board happens to be out of whack with the consensus on a player. The one thing I wish they had was a "consensus" board that essentially takes from all of the ones in their system, remove highest and lowest individual ranking for a player, and then average the rest.
RE: I think the rankings are all effed up at this point  
BelieveJJ : 1/26/2021 3:32 pm : link
In comment 15135022 KDavies said:
Quote:
I did one and got the following:

1. Micah Parsons
2. Terrance Marshall
3. Israel Mukuamu
4. Zaven Collins
6. Kadarius Toney
6. Levi Onwuzurike
7. Jaelan Phillips

To say that's impossible would be an understatement


LOL what the heck mock simulator was that? Was that manual, where you choose, or automatic where the simulator choose?
Never saw any crazy result like that picking manually.

If that's "automatic" that's the screwed up function.

Both Toney and Marshall normally come off the board late in round 1, and almost always before 42, especially Toney.

Zaven Collins ALLWSYS came off the board in round 1, too LOL.

RE: RE: I think the rankings are all effed up at this point  
KDavies : 1/26/2021 3:38 pm : link
In comment 15135048 BelieveJJ said:
Quote:
In comment 15135022 KDavies said:


Quote:


I did one and got the following:

1. Micah Parsons
2. Terrance Marshall
3. Israel Mukuamu
4. Zaven Collins
6. Kadarius Toney
6. Levi Onwuzurike
7. Jaelan Phillips

To say that's impossible would be an understatement



LOL what the heck mock simulator was that? Was that manual, where you choose, or automatic where the simulator choose?
Never saw any crazy result like that picking manually.

If that's "automatic" that's the screwed up function.

Both Toney and Marshall normally come off the board late in round 1, and almost always before 42, especially Toney.

Zaven Collins ALLWSYS came off the board in round 1, too LOL.


I used firstpick. I liked it last year, but damn it was bad. I had no idea Toney and Marshall were available (I wouldn't have picked the 3rd round CB ahead of either Toney or Collins) I think other than the 3rd round CB, I have seen all the other players mocked in the 1st round at least once.
K Davies so firstpick is useless right now.  
BelieveJJ : 1/26/2021 3:46 pm : link
Try PFN's. Simple and rarely really weird shit.

Once Chase got to 11, and once Zach Wilson got to 11. Boy did Wilson at 11 generate trade interest!!!

I resisted that...
Just did one on PFN  
jestersdead : 1/26/2021 4:04 pm : link
Traded the 11th pick with the Lions for #41 and picks in rounds 1-3 in 2022 draft
NYG
41.Kadarius Toney
42.Jaelan Phillips
76.Dylan Moses
109.Paulson Adebo
174.Damonte Coxie
178. Alaric Jackson

2022 DET 1st
2022 DET 2nd
2022 DET 3rd
RE: K Davies so firstpick is useless right now.  
KDavies : 1/26/2021 4:14 pm : link
In comment 15135065 BelieveJJ said:
Quote:
Try PFN's. Simple and rarely really weird shit.

Once Chase got to 11, and once Zach Wilson got to 11. Boy did Wilson at 11 generate trade interest!!!

I resisted that...


That one's a bit more realistic:

1. J. Chase
2. C. Humphrey
3. Q. Roche
4. M. Wilson
6. I. Mukuamu
6. T. Terry
I did a bunch of PFN drafts, only going 3-4 rounds,  
81_Great_Dane : 1/26/2021 5:58 pm : link
and the main thing I learned is: Someone is going to be on the board that a lot of people can't possibly be available at #11.

It's not so much that there's no consensus on top-10 talents; it's that there's a lot of uncertainty about whether teams will reach for a QB, or trade up for one. Also a lot of disagreement about the order of prospects. What order to Chase, Smith and Waddle go at WR? Rousseau or Paye first at ER?

That "sure fire top-10" pick may or may not be someone the Giants want at 11, but someone is likely to fall to them unexpectedly. Which, I hope, gives them the chance to trade down if they don't want that guy,
I agree with this point, it seems to be the case every year:  
BelieveJJ : 1/26/2021 7:22 pm : link
Quote:
That "sure fire top-10" pick may or may not be someone the Giants want at 11, but someone is likely to fall to them unexpectedly.


That is one reason I didn't emphasize it in the OP.
Love this draft  
uconngiant : 1/27/2021 9:11 pm : link
NYG

11.Micah Parsons
LB Penn State
NYG
51.Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR LSU
trade icon
NYG
74.Ifeatu Melifonwu
CB Syracuse
trade icon
NYG
76.Seth Williams
WR Auburn
NYG
174.Jordon Scott
DT Oregon
NYG
178.Nick Eubanks
TE Michigan
Fanspeak is pretty unrealistic  
gogiants : 1/27/2021 9:46 pm : link
Here are my Fanspeak picks and what the consensus database site shows for the prospect

Fanspeak Consensus DB
11 - --6 LB Micah Parsons 6
42 - -19 WR Rashod Bateman 19
76 - -34 TE Pat Freiermuth 34
107 - 102 G/C Ben Cleveland 102
172 - -64 OT Dillon Radunz 64
177 - -NL CB Josh Jobe NL

I haven't used it a lot but I find the simulator below to be more realistic

PFN mock
11 --19 WR Rashod Bateman
42 --45 OC Creed Humphrey
76 --60 ER Joe Tryon
107 -102 G/C Ben Cleveland
172 --88 CB Israel Mukuamu
177 -199 LB Ventrll Miller (draft network)



https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/ - ( New Window )
Traded back 11->14 got 78...  
BelieveJJ : 1/27/2021 9:57 pm : link
14 Kyle Pitts TE
42 Terrace Marshall WR
76 Chazz Surratt LB
78 Greg Newsome CB
109 Marlon Tuipulotu DT
174 Thomas Graham CB
178 Robert Rochell CB

Tuipulotu was "the day 1 winner" at tge senior bowl practice Tuesday. Great first step and agility.

Lots of CBs to fix that and STs upgrade one hopes, along with Surratt
light on defense  
uconngiant : 1/27/2021 10:27 pm : link
I love the talent with the trade downs

We get the edge, a new Tight End, two wide receivers one with size and one with blazing speed. A corner, another OT who can play inside as well and a running back who had a down year but has talent

NYG
23.Azeez Ojulari
EDGE Georgia
trade icon
NYG
42.Pat Freiermuth
TE Penn State
NYG
53.Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR LSU
trade icon
NYG
76.Liam Eichenberg
OT Notre Dame
NYG
100 Seth Williams
WR Auburn
trade icon
NYG
109.Chuba Hubbard
RB Oklahoma State
NYG
178.Shaun Jolly
CB Appalachian State
RE: light on defense  
BelieveJJ : 1/27/2021 11:11 pm : link
In comment 15136553 uconngiant said:
Quote:
I love the talent with the trade downs

We get the edge, a new Tight End, two wide receivers one with size and one with blazing speed. A corner, another OT who can play inside as well and a running back who had a down year but has talent

NYG
23.Azeez Ojulari
EDGE Georgia
trade icon
NYG
42.Pat Freiermuth
TE Penn State
NYG
53.Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR LSU
trade icon
NYG
76.Liam Eichenberg
OT Notre Dame
NYG
100 Seth Williams
WR Auburn
trade icon
NYG
109.Chuba Hubbard
RB Oklahoma State
NYG
178.Shaun Jolly
CB Appalachian State


Who's the WR with blazing speed? That's 2 with size in Marshall and Williams, but you didn't draft any WR with "blazing speed" that I see.
One more focusing on accumulating  
BelieveJJ : 1/28/2021 10:05 am : link
2021 picks in the top 100, or so.

The number in parentheses is the THR value board's curent overall ranking.

2 trades backs, then

23) (21) Zaven Collins LB/ER
42) (33) Terrace MarshalL WR
54) (35) Jaelan Phillips ER
76) (56) Elijah Molden CB
78) (51) Amon-Ra St. Brown WR
86) (NA) DJ Daniels CB
109) (59) Dillon Radunz OT
174) (102) Israel Mukuamu CB
178) (NA) Robert Rochell CB

The unrated (not on THR's top 150) CBs are guys I have heard buzz about from scouts on various pods. I certainly got lots of dives into the CB pool, looking for pearls. Hopefully one or another from that group can upgrade the Giants' STs coverage units too.


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