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| 17 Deshaun Watson trade proposals, ranked from least likely to most likely to happen in the 2021 NFL offseason #12) New York Giants Giants send: 11th overall pick in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, QB Daniel Jones Texans send: 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson Jones showed virtually no growth in his second season, as his numbers stagnated or declined across the board. He missed two-plus games with injuries and led the league in fumbles for the second consecutive season. The best arguments that he's an NFL-caliber starting quarterback consist of his frame and the fact that at least one team thought he was worth the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft. I'm not sure anybody is higher on Jones than the guy who would be trading him away, Giants general manager Dave Gettleman. Jones is still young enough to improve, but he hasn't been good enough for the Texans to plan their future around him, which leaves the Giants in a bind. Would they be willing to send three first-rounders and Jones to get a deal done? And after seeing one former Pats coach sink his franchise, would Watson want to go play for another Bill Belichick disciple in Joe Judge? |
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First. Rounders. You got little ammo left for the draft when you consider how steep the fall off is in talent after the second round.
If you're willing to trade all those assets call me when Mahomes is on the block.
I personally don’t think that’s a good risk analysis, in a QB driven league, to just sit back and hope things fall into place with Jones when you have a chance to get a proven top 5 guy just coming into his prime. But what the hell do I know — I wanted Josh Rosen lol.
I'm not a risk analyst, just using common sense. I'm not suggesting placing all the eggs in the Jones basket. I didn't want to draft him in the first place.
But, how to potentially go about replacing Jones and upgrading the QB position needs to be smart, not desperate or thank you sir may I have another.
I do think you overrate Watson a bit. On the whole, the Texans have been a disappointment more often that not, and Watson is part of the calculus. Buyer beware!
I don’t see it.
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In comment 15136853 JonC said:
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First. Rounders. You got little ammo left for the draft when you consider how steep the fall off is in talent after the second round.
If you're willing to trade all those assets call me when Mahomes is on the block.
I personally don’t think that’s a good risk analysis, in a QB driven league, to just sit back and hope things fall into place with Jones when you have a chance to get a proven top 5 guy just coming into his prime. But what the hell do I know — I wanted Josh Rosen lol.
I'm not a risk analyst, just using common sense. I'm not suggesting placing all the eggs in the Jones basket. I didn't want to draft him in the first place.
But, how to potentially go about replacing Jones and upgrading the QB position needs to be smart, not desperate or thank you sir may I have another.
I do think you overrate Watson a bit. On the whole, the Texans have been a disappointment more often that not, and Watson is part of the calculus. Buyer beware!
I have a proven track record of being wrong on QBs, I see reasons why folks might be optimistic, so I’m gonna of course root like hell that he returns to his 2019 form.
I don’t see it.
Unfortunately, I feel like the WFT fits that mold if they add a top 5 QB.
That's not the way to Build a team.
I like Watson a QB as well.
Watson can certainly put up good stats and 4 wins for the Giants, if that's what you are looking for.
I know it doesn't always work this way (supply meet demand) but why not just draft a QB at 11?
Or stick with Jones another year and if he shits the bed, the Giants will be shitty in 2021 and draft a QB in 2022.
Upgrade QB is a necessity whether it's get Jones to play better by him improving, surrounding him with better talent (at the skill positions and the OL), and better play calling, or simply replacing Jones.
but this trade proposal will not make the Giants better IMO.
I do think you overrate Watson a bit. On the whole, the Texans have been a disappointment more often that not, and Watson is part of the calculus. Buyer beware!
According to footballoutsiders.com, the Texans were the worst rushing offense in the NFL in 2020. They were also the 30th ranked defense overall, including 29th against both the pass and run. The problem is Houston was literally terrible everywhere else. Even their special teams were below average.
Watson was the 5th ranked QB according to their numbers, trailing only Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, and Josh Allen... yes, the 4 guys who played last weekend.
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The Giants went 6-10 last year with a combination of Jones & McCoy at QB. The Texans went 4-12 with Watson at QB.
So, am I to assume the Giants roster is significantly better than the Texans and Watson will come here and improve the win total by at least 4 games?
Watson is a very good QB who put up huge numbers, but no way am I trading 3 first round picks.
Watson + a competent OC and I'd feel great about winning 10 games and winning the division in 2021.
But again, pipe dream. I truly believe the Giants wouldn't trade Jones and a second rounder for Watson.
You continue to post lighting rod and out of touch takes like this. Why? Every discussion here devolves into horse shit takes. Every single one! Then we debate about horse shit.
Ask yourself why the Giants truly wouldn't trade Jones for Watson? Even if this take is made up garbage, seriously ask yourself why. Think about it objectively. Try to. Why would the Giants say no thx to a trade like that? Do you think they want to suck? do you really think the Giants aren't afraid to admit a mistake? the evidence against this is so striking but as usual, no one wants to see evidence or proof when they get on a roll. They just want to be right.
Just because the Giants suck lately doesn't mean they don't care. Or that DG is sitting in his office coming up with ways to cover excuse the DJ pick. It doesn't mean he won't move from DJ.
Some of you sure know how to frame a point and make it look like a mature and articulate take but when you unravel it all you get is stupid.
DG doesn't want to admit his mistake and won't move on from Jones. Never mind that Judge is the HC and already benched and cut countless holdovers and never mind DG himself has moved on from disappointing players HE HIMSELF signed, in the SAME YEAR.
This place fucking sucks lately because you have smart people dressing up really stupid and out of touch posts.
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I do think you overrate Watson a bit. On the whole, the Texans have been a disappointment more often that not, and Watson is part of the calculus. Buyer beware!
According to footballoutsiders.com, the Texans were the worst rushing offense in the NFL in 2020. They were also the 30th ranked defense overall, including 29th against both the pass and run. The problem is Houston was literally terrible everywhere else. Even their special teams were below average.
Watson was the 5th ranked QB according to their numbers, trailing only Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, and Josh Allen... yes, the 4 guys who played last weekend.
Great, let him win some big NFL games to complete the circle of belief. He's not what I would spend three #1 picks on right now.
I agree 3+ first round picks is a complete non-starter.
But Williams vs. Watson is not apples to apples. Watson is on a really manageable contract and obviously plays a much more valuable position.
Deshaun Watson signed a 4 year, $156,000,000 contract including a $27,000,000 signing bonus, $110,717,123 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $39,000,000. In 2021, Watson will earn a base salary of $10,540,000, while carrying a cap hit of $15,940,000 and a dead cap value of $67,140,000
In 2022 and 2023, his salary is over $40M each year
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3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
I agree 3+ first round picks is a complete non-starter.
But Williams vs. Watson is not apples to apples. Watson is on a really manageable contract and obviously plays a much more valuable position.
I think his point is people are pissed about trading a 3rd for a guy clearly worth it vs being ok giving up 3 firsts for a QB who isn't Mahomes.
I'd love to get Watson, but not at this price. Two 1sts would be tops for me (with other add ons).
Somewhere in an alley a strawman has been bludgeoned.
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In comment 15136874 JonC said:
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I do think you overrate Watson a bit. On the whole, the Texans have been a disappointment more often that not, and Watson is part of the calculus. Buyer beware!
According to footballoutsiders.com, the Texans were the worst rushing offense in the NFL in 2020. They were also the 30th ranked defense overall, including 29th against both the pass and run. The problem is Houston was literally terrible everywhere else. Even their special teams were below average.
Watson was the 5th ranked QB according to their numbers, trailing only Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, and Josh Allen... yes, the 4 guys who played last weekend.
Great, let him win some big NFL games to complete the circle of belief. He's not what I would spend three #1 picks on right now.
I think this is a somewhat fair take and this coming from a big Watson fan. I have watched Watson start playoff games in pretty alarmingly bad fashion. His numbers were likely pretty good by game's end, but one game last season jumps to mind where Watson was putting his head down right off the snap and looking to "muddle" the play rather than go through progressions and make plays from the pocket. And as a big fan of his and one who wanted to really analyze his play, i would pause and rewind many plays and find that the pockets were clean in many cases but Watson was all out of sorts. HE got his bearings but in the end it was too late.
Watson is a better player than Jones. HE might always be a better player than Jones, but it's far from a certainty and even if Watson has the sexier skill set and regular season pedigree, he might not be the big game QB that Jones develops into. And that is definitely a real thing. We know it is. Watson has a long way to go to become a true big game QB. Maybe as far as Jones has to go. Jones just needs to become a more consistent player. There's a difference.
Don't know about two firsts and Jones. That's tough.
that's just an unfair take you and many here have thrown around. Blind?
Ernie Accorsi says hi. And you're damn right I will go to this well time and time again.
Of course, then you run into the problem that the guy who will be making those picks is the reason why the roster sucks in the first place.
I think the analysis depends on how critical you think having a top QB is in today’s NFL. To me, Watson has shown enough to reasonably bet that he’ll be a top QB for at least the next 5 years — and he’s a smarter bet than Jones (big risk) and three future first rounders (we don’t have a great track record). The NFC East — and the NFC in general — is ripe for the taking with Brady 42, Brees gone, and Rodgers 37. It’s a rare, maybe unprecedented opportunity to get a guy this young and this good. And he’s not Ricky Williams or Herschel Walker. He’s a QB, the most important part of a football team.
You and most here obliterated him prior to COughlin coming on board. You forgot?
Deshaun Watson signed a 4 year, $156,000,000 contract including a $27,000,000 signing bonus, $110,717,123 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $39,000,000. In 2021, Watson will earn a base salary of $10,540,000, while carrying a cap hit of $15,940,000 and a dead cap value of $67,140,000
In 2022 and 2023, his salary is over $40M each year
But if traded, the complexion of the contract is much different, notably the balance of the signing bonus not being the new team’s responsibility.
The dollars and guarantees easily lend themselves to restructuring (which Abrams has done each time he’s acquired a player via trade. Notably Ogletree and Zeitler).
The balance of the traded contract would be 5/146.5M with 45M fully guaranteed, and 82M practically guaranteed.
All things equal, that’s a very reasonable contract for a 26-year-old, top 5 type QB.
How many GMs looked shaky before finally finding solid ground? How many looked great for years before the team completely fell apart? How come great HCs rarely every become bad ones but we see good GMs preside over bad teams all the time? Ask yourself how that happens?
How many GMs looked shaky before finally finding solid ground? How many looked great for years before the team completely fell apart? How come great HCs rarely every become bad ones but we see good GMs preside over bad teams all the time? Ask yourself how that happens?
What's the expiration date for this reasoning, or is there one? How long does Gettleman get a pass for horrid teams? One more year? Two? Three?
I still like you.
I guess I just think GMs aren't as important as HCs are. I would love a 2018 mulligan. I haven't given DG a pass for everything, I just don't think he holds this team back now that Judge is here.
I also don't think the GM is the sole reason why some decisions can be second guessed here with the Giants. MAra likely has a say in things. Just a theory I can't prove anything.
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contract outside of next year really that good??
Deshaun Watson signed a 4 year, $156,000,000 contract including a $27,000,000 signing bonus, $110,717,123 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $39,000,000. In 2021, Watson will earn a base salary of $10,540,000, while carrying a cap hit of $15,940,000 and a dead cap value of $67,140,000
In 2022 and 2023, his salary is over $40M each year
But if traded, the complexion of the contract is much different, notably the balance of the signing bonus not being the new team’s responsibility.
The dollars and guarantees easily lend themselves to restructuring (which Abrams has done each time he’s acquired a player via trade. Notably Ogletree and Zeitler).
The balance of the traded contract would be 5/146.5M with 45M fully guaranteed, and 82M practically guaranteed.
All things equal, that’s a very reasonable contract for a 26-year-old, top 5 type QB.
Excellent post.
One correction - Watson is 25. ;)
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3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
I think the analysis depends on how critical you think having a top QB is in today’s NFL. To me, Watson has shown enough to reasonably bet that he’ll be a top QB for at least the next 5 years — and he’s a smarter bet than Jones (big risk) and three future first rounders (we don’t have a great track record). The NFC East — and the NFC in general — is ripe for the taking with Brady 42, Brees gone, and Rodgers 37. It’s a rare, maybe unprecedented opportunity to get a guy this young and this good. And he’s not Ricky Williams or Herschel Walker. He’s a QB, the most important part of a football team.
You would be plugging Watson into a roster stil full of holes, without premium draft capital and much less cap space to make progress.
Watson looks like a smarter bet than Jones right now, but far from settled, and at what cost which is reasonable. Three #1s and Jones is a considerably desperate offer, imv, and I one who would actually prefer to move on from Jones.
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In comment 15136874 JonC said:
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I do think you overrate Watson a bit. On the whole, the Texans have been a disappointment more often that not, and Watson is part of the calculus. Buyer beware!
According to footballoutsiders.com, the Texans were the worst rushing offense in the NFL in 2020. They were also the 30th ranked defense overall, including 29th against both the pass and run. The problem is Houston was literally terrible everywhere else. Even their special teams were below average.
Watson was the 5th ranked QB according to their numbers, trailing only Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, and Josh Allen... yes, the 4 guys who played last weekend.
Great, let him win some big NFL games to complete the circle of belief. He's not what I would spend three #1 picks on right now.
He’s won 11 and 10 games and a playoff game, but he’s not gonna be available when he wins more. He’s available now. Has a top 5-7!QB this young ever been available? I can’t think of one.
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
I think most in favor would say something short of that, would be the sweet spot.
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3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
I'm not comparing the players or positions.
I'm comparing the outrage over trading a 3rd round pick for a young, premium player, because the logic was no matter the return (and we obviously got about as good a return as possible) the trade was still bad because we can't be giving away any picks when our roster needs as much draft capital as possible.
Was that not the argument? Now we're good with trading 3 first round picks?
How many GMs looked shaky before finally finding solid ground? How many looked great for years before the team completely fell apart? How come great HCs rarely every become bad ones but we see good GMs preside over bad teams all the time? Ask yourself how that happens?
Djm - interested in your answers to these questions. Can you fill in the color please with some details as not certain these are as slam-dunk as you are trying to make them out to be.
Thanks in advance.
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3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
if someone did a value analysis I would wager that three firsts wouldn't be too much. In fact it might be too little.
I'm not comparing the players or positions.
I'm comparing the outrage over trading a 3rd round pick for a young, premium player, because the logic was no matter the return (and we obviously got about as good a return as possible) the trade was still bad because we can't be giving away any picks when our roster needs as much draft capital as possible.
Was that not the argument? Now we're good with trading 3 first round picks?
You're over simplifying and and misrepresenting what a lot of posters felt. Many, many posters felt the trade was a bad proposition because Williams was not under contract, and hi longterm prospects and cost unknown.
I still don't see anyone saying the hypothetical trade is the right price. But you can't ignore Watson is under contract for 5 more years when comparing the scenarios. Huge, material difference.
One first and Jones is a joke. Jones couldn't get you a second round pick in return. Nobody wants Jones.
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In comment 15136888 Britt in VA said:
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3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
I'm not comparing the players or positions.
I'm comparing the outrage over trading a 3rd round pick for a young, premium player, because the logic was no matter the return (and we obviously got about as good a return as possible) the trade was still bad because we can't be giving away any picks when our roster needs as much draft capital as possible.
Was that not the argument? Now we're good with trading 3 first round picks?
You apply the same value analysis to an elite young QB as you do a defensive lineman?
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I'm curious, what would you guys do for Watson? Two firsts? One first and Jones?
One first and Jones is a joke. Jones couldn't get you a second round pick in return. Nobody wants Jones.
Once again - something stated as fact by a poster who has no fucking clue what the demand is out there.
It's well past absurdity at this point, but even this thread has several similar comments.
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In comment 15136961 BrettNYG10 said:
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I'm curious, what would you guys do for Watson? Two firsts? One first and Jones?
One first and Jones is a joke. Jones couldn't get you a second round pick in return. Nobody wants Jones.
Once again - something stated as fact by a poster who has no fucking clue what the demand is out there.
It's well past absurdity at this point, but even this thread has several similar comments.
What do you believe Jones would fetch in a trade?