|
|
|
| Quote: |
| 17 Deshaun Watson trade proposals, ranked from least likely to most likely to happen in the 2021 NFL offseason #12) New York Giants Giants send: 11th overall pick in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, QB Daniel Jones Texans send: 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson Jones showed virtually no growth in his second season, as his numbers stagnated or declined across the board. He missed two-plus games with injuries and led the league in fumbles for the second consecutive season. The best arguments that he's an NFL-caliber starting quarterback consist of his frame and the fact that at least one team thought he was worth the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft. I'm not sure anybody is higher on Jones than the guy who would be trading him away, Giants general manager Dave Gettleman. Jones is still young enough to improve, but he hasn't been good enough for the Texans to plan their future around him, which leaves the Giants in a bind. Would they be willing to send three first-rounders and Jones to get a deal done? And after seeing one former Pats coach sink his franchise, would Watson want to go play for another Bill Belichick disciple in Joe Judge? |
Thanks, Jon. I think I'm a little higher on Watson than you are, but think you're right.
People are thinking too hard or are being purposely dense. There will always be a market for a mobile QB with a fairly accurate arm. Ohh and he's cheap.
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
I'm not comparing the players or positions.
I'm comparing the outrage over trading a 3rd round pick for a young, premium player, because the logic was no matter the return (and we obviously got about as good a return as possible) the trade was still bad because we can't be giving away any picks when our roster needs as much draft capital as possible.
Was that not the argument? Now we're good with trading 3 first round picks?
I believe the majority of the outrage for LW for two fold - 1. why are we trading for a player when we were in the midst of another losing season? 2. Since it was LW's contract year, and many of us studied the comps, the contract hit demands were likely going to be very high. Most of us who understood the market, estimates at least $16M+. Those who didn't were swimming in the laughable zone - $10M+.
Quote:
3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
The first round is pretty broad isn't it? Is it 50% across all 32 picks or, if you binned them, would you get a different percentage? Remember, that if you really are correct about Jones, then we this year will be the latest we pick of the ensuing three drafts.
Quote:
In comment 15136965 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 15136961 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
I'm curious, what would you guys do for Watson? Two firsts? One first and Jones?
One first and Jones is a joke. Jones couldn't get you a second round pick in return. Nobody wants Jones.
Once again - something stated as fact by a poster who has no fucking clue what the demand is out there.
It's well past absurdity at this point, but even this thread has several similar comments.
What do you believe Jones would fetch in a trade?
I don't know. I'm not the one making proclamations that nobody wants him.
Certainly, even the most ignorant of posters watching a league where Teddy Bridgewater gets a starter's deal, where Josh Rosen was able to be traded, where Tyrod Taylor keeps finding a landing spot, where Ryan Fitzpatrick gets snapped up and where Matt Flynn was obtained - would have to conclude there would certainly be suitors for Jones.
But alas - that isn't the case with some of the sharp knives here.
People are thinking too hard or are being purposely dense. There will always be a market for a mobile QB with a fairly accurate arm. Ohh and he's cheap.
The 49ers are not looking for a cheap QB. They are looking for a championship QB - now.
I think most in favor would say something short of that, would be the sweet spot.
Obviously your prefer to give up less. Giving up Jones wouldn't matter - I don't think he has real value. Right now I think he's probably worth a 3rd/4th.
I'll repeat what I said earlier: the Giants have had 5 first rounders in the past 3 drafts. Those give guys put together don't add up to Watson.
If we had better people making the picks I might be more hesitant to trade picks. But if it's still Mara/Gettleman I'd be confident our next three first rounders won't add up to Watson.
The Barkley debate, for the gazillionth time, was purely based on position value, not about Barkley's skills and the likelihood he would be good.
Most of us thought he would be good. We just didn't think that would translate to more wins. Thus far, his acquisition hasn't...
Quote:
In comment 15136888 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
if someone did a value analysis I would wager that three firsts wouldn't be too much. In fact it might be too little.
It's *four* firsts.
Quote:
The problem with the proposal is you're in effect buying really high on Watson and selling low on Jones. I can't think of a similar example to draw upon either. Two #1's and Jones still presents a significant gamble for NYG. For this scenario, I think they've got to trust their evaluation on Jones for now, or find a more equitable deal to make.
Thanks, Jon. I think I'm a little higher on Watson than you are, but think you're right.
I think it’s actually buying low on Watson, because he’s only available because of the shit storm created by management in Houston. Franchise cornerstone QBs at his age are virtually never available.
Quote:
why wouldn't someone like the 49ers try him (and save money on JG)? He fits perfectly in that offense too.
People are thinking too hard or are being purposely dense. There will always be a market for a mobile QB with a fairly accurate arm. Ohh and he's cheap.
The 49ers are not looking for a cheap QB. They are looking for a championship QB - now.
Cool, thanks for playing.
In case you can't read I said he's also cheap. Nevermind the him fitting in well part, what good is that?
Quote:
in 2018. Because I recall some pro-Barkley people mentioning that, and getting shouted down because when you have the chance to take the franchise QB, no matter the risk, you take it.
The Barkley debate, for the gazillionth time, was purely based on position value, not about Barkley's skills and the likelihood he would be good.
Most of us thought he would be good. We just didn't think that would translate to more wins. Thus far, his acquisition hasn't...
If that is the case, then it refutes the idea that we should give away all of our firsts because we would screw them up. Thomas, Lawrence, Barkley can't be considered screw-ups even if you concede that Barkley is a positional error but a super quality player.
Consistency isn't a strong suit for many here.
I think most in favor would say something short of that, would be the sweet spot.
I think what you’re getting in return is worth a minimum of two first round picks. A third might be needed to put your proposal over the top of other teams. You’d also be selling low on Daniel Jones, but even his most ardent supporters would have to admit that it’s highly debatable what he is and will be. So two firsts and Jones is a bare minimum serious offer that probably won’t get the job done. Three first and Jones might get you something else in return like a 4th rounder.
Quote:
In comment 15136888 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
The first round is pretty broad isn't it? Is it 50% across all 32 picks or, if you binned them, would you get a different percentage? Remember, that if you really are correct about Jones, then we this year will be the latest we pick of the ensuing three drafts.
I think there is variation by the first round slot. Basically, I'm guessing/recalling something I read where the hit % for the first round was close to a coin toss. But that could have been top 10.
Quote:
In comment 15136975 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
why wouldn't someone like the 49ers try him (and save money on JG)? He fits perfectly in that offense too.
People are thinking too hard or are being purposely dense. There will always be a market for a mobile QB with a fairly accurate arm. Ohh and he's cheap.
The 49ers are not looking for a cheap QB. They are looking for a championship QB - now.
Cool, thanks for playing.
In case you can't read I said he's also cheap. Nevermind the him fitting in well part, what good is that?
The 49ers went to the Super Bowl last season. their window is now. Why would they give anything for our failed QB. A QB that often looks too small for the moment. Why would they do that? You think Jones is "the goods". Everybody else sees a QB who can't put it together and threw 11 TDs in a full season with an 11/10 ratio and is between 25th and 32nd in every key metric.
We really don't know what the end game is here. Is he threatening to sit out the year? Will they tell him to fuck off, play or sit at home? Too many unknowns but I don't see this as buying low, its simply a very tiny window to trade for a franchise QB that you would otherwise never have the opportunity to do. And if 2+ teams make offers?
Saying Jones would be tough to fetch a 3rd/4th rounder is just sheer ignorance at this point - and likely done for dramatic effect.
Quote:
In comment 15136951 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15136888 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
I'm not comparing the players or positions.
I'm comparing the outrage over trading a 3rd round pick for a young, premium player, because the logic was no matter the return (and we obviously got about as good a return as possible) the trade was still bad because we can't be giving away any picks when our roster needs as much draft capital as possible.
Was that not the argument? Now we're good with trading 3 first round picks?
You apply the same value analysis to an elite young QB as you do a defensive lineman?
QB's and Pass Rushers. Those are the two defacto premium positions aren't they? One on each side of the ball?
Quote:
Just as a temp check, does anyone actually think the hypothetical (3 1st + Jones) is the right price?
I think most in favor would say something short of that, would be the sweet spot.
Obviously your prefer to give up less. Giving up Jones wouldn't matter - I don't think he has real value. Right now I think he's probably worth a 3rd/4th.
I'll repeat what I said earlier: the Giants have had 5 first rounders in the past 3 drafts. Those give guys put together don't add up to Watson.
If we had better people making the picks I might be more hesitant to trade picks. But if it's still Mara/Gettleman I'd be confident our next three first rounders won't add up to Watson.
It has gotten to the point where i pray our next GM is who YOU want so you can shut the fuck up with these stupid fucking comments.
The draft is a crapshoot. You cant kill DG for the baker pick, barkley has just been hurt. DGs last draft was VERY good despite your stupid take. His FA signings were the only reason the giants were watchable this year. I can probably find 100 posts by you talking shit about bradberry n martinez signings meanwhile both are tops at thier positions. Youre just a negative clown who likes to bitch about every move.
If the giants made this move for watson you would probably find something else to bitch about. The giants will be competing for the division next year whether you agree with their moves or not. Ao buckle up and enjoy it or go join a different miserable fan base. Your posts and comments are fucming exhuasting
But SF is picking 12th and won't be in position to get a top QB unless they give up a fortune to move up so what are their options then to WIN NOW? Who's available to spend a ton on?
Saying Jones would be tough to fetch a 3rd/4th rounder is just sheer ignorance at this point - and likely done for dramatic effect.
They arw clowns. This board has become a joke.
Jones may not work out but lesser players have been traded for more
Quote:
In comment 15136957 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 15136951 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15136888 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
3rd round pick because we can't give up resources but we're gung ho to give up 3, maybe 4 (if we include Jones) FIRST ROUND PICKS? Seriously?
It's silly to compare a player who touches the ball on every offensive play, and directly scores points, to a player who doesn't and plays D.
I probably agree 3 firsts are too much. But what is the hit rate on first rounders becoming really good players? 50%? Pro Bowl players? 25%. So we may lose 1.5 good players to acquire a proven, great player at the most important position.
It's not that bad of a gamble...
I'm not comparing the players or positions.
I'm comparing the outrage over trading a 3rd round pick for a young, premium player, because the logic was no matter the return (and we obviously got about as good a return as possible) the trade was still bad because we can't be giving away any picks when our roster needs as much draft capital as possible.
Was that not the argument? Now we're good with trading 3 first round picks?
You apply the same value analysis to an elite young QB as you do a defensive lineman?
QB's and Pass Rushers. Those are the two defacto premium positions aren't they? One on each side of the ball?
QBs stand alone in value.
You really are a fucking clown. There were posters HERE who said they would give a first rounder to get Rosen!! For the Giants.
I know middle ground terrifies people around here but it is very possible to want to see what Jones can do in year 3 but also wonder what an upgrade would look like and how to go about obtaining it.
It's *four* firsts.
It’s like taking the car off of the lot... no one would trade the Giants a first round pick for Daniel Jones right now. They would be trading him at the nadir of his value, but it’s also possible that’s what he is and he doesn’t get much better.
But SF is picking 12th and won't be in position to get a top QB unless they give up a fortune to move up so what are their options then to WIN NOW? Who's available to spend a ton on?
I was thinking they would be a possibility for Trey Lance but it now seems Lan ce goes top-10. I really have no idea what they are thinking or what the cap possibilities are. Watson or Stafford would both be great adds for them if they could swing it.
I'm sure you keep the necessary equipment close by so that's not a stretch. But I'm not sure that would fly in more knowledgeable circles.
Again, I don't recall the splits. I said there is probably variation by slot/segment, probably even by position.
I would guess a top ten pick has a higher chance of being successful versus a pick in the 22-32 range. And then it blends out to some overall %.
Who cares? Is that the benchmark?
What I want vs. what the team does are two things that never matter and never effect each other.
Horrible fans. The Giants have had success in about every decade of their existence. Relax a little?
Only need LBH15/Jimmy Googs to join the fray to make this thread complete.
How many people advocated here for Josh Rosen for a 2nd without getting crucified?
Certainly, even the most ignorant of posters watching a league where Teddy Bridgewater gets a starter's deal, where Josh Rosen was able to be traded, where Tyrod Taylor keeps finding a landing spot, where Ryan Fitzpatrick gets snapped up and where Matt Flynn was obtained - would have to conclude there would certainly be suitors for Jones.
But alas - that isn't the case with some of the sharp knives here.
I'd say Jones would fetch a mid-to-late 1st. I think Rosen is a decent temp check -- he was certainly way worse than what Jones has shown. If he can grab a 2nd round pick, I think Jones would grab a 1st.
Quote:
If Jones were on another team and a poster suggested trading a second rounder to bring him to the Giants, that poster would be crucified.
How many people advocated here for Josh Rosen for a 2nd without getting crucified?
Shhh, don't say stuff like that while Go Terps et al are on their usual soapbox. It goes against their narrative.
Sam Bradford - Foles and a 2nd and the year after a 1st and 4th
Alex Smith - Two 2nds and then a 3rd and Fuller
Carson Palmer - a 1st and 2nd
No idea the cap situation for all of those trades but it just shows that Stafford likely nets 1 if not 2 premium picks.
Quote:
If Jones were on another team and a poster suggested trading a second rounder to bring him to the Giants, that poster would be crucified.
You really are a fucking clown. There were posters HERE who said they would give a first rounder to get Rosen!! For the Giants.
He is a fucking moron. His takes are shit. His attitude and posts are exhuasting.
I wish he would gargle lamars balls and leave the board.
Quote:
If Jones were on another team and a poster suggested trading a second rounder to bring him to the Giants, that poster would be crucified.
How many people advocated here for Josh Rosen for a 2nd without getting crucified?
One of them was bw. He said a 2nd - but then raised it up to a 1st!!!
bw in dc : 4/24/2019 3:29 pm : link
Sy wrote this about Rosen and his first year with Arizona:
He has the worst supporting cast in football, more specifically the offensive line.
He showed toughness and grit and stayed focused and driven despite the crappy situation....those were the 2 red flags from the media at this time last year.
If you made a cut up of the top 100 throws in the NFL last year, Rosen has at least 5 of them. He fit some balls in to windows that very few guys can. His mechanics stayed clean, he tried to stand tall against pressure even when everyone knew the rush was gonna reach him within 3 seconds.
If Rosen was on CLE last year, he outplays Mayfield in my opinion.
I was very pleased to read this, and it supported many things I have written about Rosen last year in Arizona.
With that said, I agree that we should leverage our 17th pick for Rosen. I was stuck on just a second round pick - tops. But this QB class is too underwhelming. We really need to get this done...
My God that is a steaming pile of shit post!!
Quote:
In comment 15137009 Go Terps said:
Quote:
If Jones were on another team and a poster suggested trading a second rounder to bring him to the Giants, that poster would be crucified.
How many people advocated here for Josh Rosen for a 2nd without getting crucified?
One of them was bw. He said a 2nd - but then raised it up to a 1st!!!
Quote:
Over on the QB prospects thread...
bw in dc : 4/24/2019 3:29 pm : link
Sy wrote this about Rosen and his first year with Arizona:
He has the worst supporting cast in football, more specifically the offensive line.
He showed toughness and grit and stayed focused and driven despite the crappy situation....those were the 2 red flags from the media at this time last year.
If you made a cut up of the top 100 throws in the NFL last year, Rosen has at least 5 of them. He fit some balls in to windows that very few guys can. His mechanics stayed clean, he tried to stand tall against pressure even when everyone knew the rush was gonna reach him within 3 seconds.
If Rosen was on CLE last year, he outplays Mayfield in my opinion.
I was very pleased to read this, and it supported many things I have written about Rosen last year in Arizona.
With that said, I agree that we should leverage our 17th pick for Rosen. I was stuck on just a second round pick - tops. But this QB class is too underwhelming. We really need to get this done...
My God that is a steaming pile of shit post!!
That is so tasty to read. Laugh out loud funny. CLOWN.
Doesn't drill down to a "good player" status, but it does get to pro bowl level and "bust" level. You could probably make some subjective assumptions what the %s are for someone good...
First Round Draft History - ( New Window )
That's all this is.
That said, some of the inconsistency in logic displayed on this thread as it pertains to what the Giants do or don't do is pretty apparent.
Quote:
In comment 15137024 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 15137009 Go Terps said:
Quote:
If Jones were on another team and a poster suggested trading a second rounder to bring him to the Giants, that poster would be crucified.
How many people advocated here for Josh Rosen for a 2nd without getting crucified?
One of them was bw. He said a 2nd - but then raised it up to a 1st!!!
Quote:
Over on the QB prospects thread...
bw in dc : 4/24/2019 3:29 pm : link
Sy wrote this about Rosen and his first year with Arizona:
He has the worst supporting cast in football, more specifically the offensive line.
He showed toughness and grit and stayed focused and driven despite the crappy situation....those were the 2 red flags from the media at this time last year.
If you made a cut up of the top 100 throws in the NFL last year, Rosen has at least 5 of them. He fit some balls in to windows that very few guys can. His mechanics stayed clean, he tried to stand tall against pressure even when everyone knew the rush was gonna reach him within 3 seconds.
If Rosen was on CLE last year, he outplays Mayfield in my opinion.
I was very pleased to read this, and it supported many things I have written about Rosen last year in Arizona.
With that said, I agree that we should leverage our 17th pick for Rosen. I was stuck on just a second round pick - tops. But this QB class is too underwhelming. We really need to get this done...
My God that is a steaming pile of shit post!!
That is so tasty to read. Laugh out loud funny. CLOWN.
I enjoyed it as well. Even the great bw can be wrong. See being a GM isnt easy and everypme evals differently
NOBODY bats 1000
Quote:
In comment 15137009 Go Terps said:
Quote:
If Jones were on another team and a poster suggested trading a second rounder to bring him to the Giants, that poster would be crucified.
How many people advocated here for Josh Rosen for a 2nd without getting crucified?
One of them was bw. He said a 2nd - but then raised it up to a 1st!!!
Quote:
Over on the QB prospects thread...
bw in dc : 4/24/2019 3:29 pm : link
Sy wrote this about Rosen and his first year with Arizona:
He has the worst supporting cast in football, more specifically the offensive line.
He showed toughness and grit and stayed focused and driven despite the crappy situation....those were the 2 red flags from the media at this time last year.
If you made a cut up of the top 100 throws in the NFL last year, Rosen has at least 5 of them. He fit some balls in to windows that very few guys can. His mechanics stayed clean, he tried to stand tall against pressure even when everyone knew the rush was gonna reach him within 3 seconds.
If Rosen was on CLE last year, he outplays Mayfield in my opinion.
I was very pleased to read this, and it supported many things I have written about Rosen last year in Arizona.
With that said, I agree that we should leverage our 17th pick for Rosen. I was stuck on just a second round pick - tops. But this QB class is too underwhelming. We really need to get this done...
My God that is a steaming pile of shit post!!
And? I haven't raised anything in this dialogue about Rosen or what Jones would fetch in a direct trade.
As usual, you are confusing me with others.
Doesn't drill down to a "good player" status, but it does get to pro bowl level and "bust" level. You could probably make some subjective assumptions what the %s are for someone good... First Round Draft History - ( New Window )
Thanks. It looks like if you are top 10 you have pretty close to a 40% change of getting a Pro Bowler. I would define good as less than a pro bowler but I'm an easy grader.
Quote:
In comment 15137024 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 15137009 Go Terps said:
Quote:
If Jones were on another team and a poster suggested trading a second rounder to bring him to the Giants, that poster would be crucified.
How many people advocated here for Josh Rosen for a 2nd without getting crucified?
One of them was bw. He said a 2nd - but then raised it up to a 1st!!!
Quote:
Over on the QB prospects thread...
bw in dc : 4/24/2019 3:29 pm : link
Sy wrote this about Rosen and his first year with Arizona:
He has the worst supporting cast in football, more specifically the offensive line.
He showed toughness and grit and stayed focused and driven despite the crappy situation....those were the 2 red flags from the media at this time last year.
If you made a cut up of the top 100 throws in the NFL last year, Rosen has at least 5 of them. He fit some balls in to windows that very few guys can. His mechanics stayed clean, he tried to stand tall against pressure even when everyone knew the rush was gonna reach him within 3 seconds.
If Rosen was on CLE last year, he outplays Mayfield in my opinion.
I was very pleased to read this, and it supported many things I have written about Rosen last year in Arizona.
With that said, I agree that we should leverage our 17th pick for Rosen. I was stuck on just a second round pick - tops. But this QB class is too underwhelming. We really need to get this done...
My God that is a steaming pile of shit post!!
And? I haven't raised anything in this dialogue about Rosen or what Jones would fetch in a direct trade.
As usual, you are confusing me with others.
A 1st for Rosen!!!!!!! Clown. LOLOLOLOLOL. Not so easy being a GM, is it?!
Sam Bradford - Foles and a 2nd and the year after a 1st and 4th
Alex Smith - Two 2nds and then a 3rd and Fuller
Carson Palmer - a 1st and 2nd
No idea the cap situation for all of those trades but it just shows that Stafford likely nets 1 if not 2 premium picks.
I don't know what leverage the Lions have. On value, yes Stafford may be worth a mid first. What the Lions will settle for, I don't know, a 2nd and a 4th maybe? They said they want to move on. I'm just guessing.