If you take a look at 2020 stats for the four conference finalists in comparison to the Giants, you get an informative look into why the Giants are failing and what they need to improve to compete in 2021.
Team - PPG - League Rank
Points Scored
GB - 31.8 - 1ST
BUF - 31.3 - 2ND
TB - 30.8 - 3RD
KC - 29.6 - 6TH
NYG - 17.5 - 31ST
This one is pretty obvious. You've got to score points. But it's more interesting when taken in conjunction with points allowed:
Points Allowed
TB - 22.2 - 8TH
NYG - 22.3 - 9TH
KC - 22.6 - 10TH
GB - 23.1 - 13TH
BUF - 23.4 - 16TH
Defensively the Giants were right there with the best teams in the league. But while those other teams won anywhere from 11 to 14 games, the Giants only won 6.
It was obvious to anyone watching but it is so stark it deserves to be restated: the offense must be drastically better in 2021. I'll also note that only one team in the NFL (LA Rams) finished in the bottom 16 in points scored and still finished over .500. The #16 ranked team in points scored was Atlanta, with 24.8.
That sets a good target for the Giants in 2021: Score 25 points per game.
Now let's look at run vs. pass...
Rushing Y/A
GB - 4.8 - 5TH
KC - 4.5 - 11TH
NYG - 4.4 - 13TH
BUF - 4.2 - 23RD
TB - 4.1 - 25TH
Passing AY/A
GB - 9.6 - 1ST
KC - 8.7 - 3RD
BUF - 8.5 - 5TH
TB - 8.1 - 8TH
NYG - 6.0 - 28TH
You can see the correlation with winning and passing the ball well, whereas there doesn't appear to be any correlation in rushing the ball well. Three teams in the bottom half of the league in AY/A finished over .500 - LA Rams, Pittsburgh, and Chicago. The 16th best team in AY/A (Baltimore) had a mark of 7.3 AY/A.
There's a good target for the Giants in 2021 - achieve an AY/A of 7.5.
If you dive deeper into the passing statistics, you find more correlation.
Passing TDs
GB - 48 - 1ST
TB - 42 - 2ND
KC - 40 - 3RD
BUF - 40 - 4TH
NYG - 12 - 32ND
The four best teams in the league were the four top teams in TD passes. Speaks for itself. Only four teams in the bottom half of the league in passing TDs finished above .500: Chicago, Indianapolis, Miami, and LA Rams. The 16th ranked team in TD passes (Baltimore) had 27.
Target for the Giants in 2021 - throw 30 TD passes.
Sacks Allowed
GB - 21 - 3RD
TB - 22 - 4TH
KC - 24 - 5TH
BUF - 27 - 9TH
NYG - 50 - 30TH
Only two teams in the bottom half of the league in sacks allowed finished above .500: Chicago and Seattle. The 16th ranked team (LA Chargers) allowed 34.
Target for Giants in 2021 - Allow fewer than 30 sacks.
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The Giants were right there with the four best teams in the league in defense and running the football, yet they finished 5 to 8 games behind them in the standings. Clearly, winning in the NFL in 2020 was about throwing the football to create points. The four best teams did that at the top level, the Giants were a bottom level passing team.
The targets laid out above are not elite level targets - they are slightly above league average. They do not represent unreasonable expectations for 2021.
2021 Targets
- Score 25 points per game.
- Achieve an AY/A of 7.5.
- Throw 30 TD passes.
- Allow fewer than 30 sacks.
If the Giants hit those four targets they should end up with a good record and a playoff spot. But they've got to improve drastically over their last two seasons:
2019
- 21.3 points per game
- AY/A of 6.4
- 30 TD passes
- 43 sacks allowed
2020
- 17.5 points per game
- AY/A of 6.0
- 12 TD passes
- 50 sacks allowed
Why am I including 2019? Because it's been pretty common to point to it as a strong year for the Giants' passing offense. While it was clearly better than 2020, you can see that it still falls well short of average by 2020 standards. Significant improvement is needed.
I'll admit that this is only looking at one year (2020). I'll bookmark this and see how 2021 shapes up in comparison to these targets.
Having a quarterback throw some arbitrary number of touchdowns has absolutely nothing to do with the overall record of the team. Anyone saying otherwise is just trying to throw another argument against Jones out there. Eli threw for 35 and 14 in 2015....and we absolutely sucked.
Kirk Cousins threw for 35, Vikes didn't make the playoffs. Watson 33, Texans were awful. Herbert 31. Carr 27. Ryan 26.
Since when is offense the only unit in the NFL? I guess defense and special teams have nothing to do with winning? Where is this dumb ass argument coming from?
Kyler Murray hasn't had 30TD's yet. Josh Allen did it this season for the first time. Baker Mayfield hasn't gotten there. Derek Carr, a BBI favorite, hit 30 TD's once. In 2015. Tannehill did it once - this season.
But Tannehill led a deep run last season without throwing 30 TD's. Jimmy G did the same.
I guess it is OK to set a standard to shoot for - but that standard seems pretty subjective, almost as if pulled from an ass or something.
For some reason, the perception among the serially negative is that Jones is an 11TD a year guy. And they start crafting narratives around the idea that's what he is.
Those are team stats that Terps posted though. Granted, in many cases, the starting QB's passing TDs clearly are the team's passing TDs, but the point is about where the commonalities are among the best teams in the league - passing TDs happened to be one that was clearly correlative with final W/L standings. I suspect you'd have a hard time trying to deny some causality there as well.
Those commonalities are, essentially the listed variables for what comes next: a very rudimentary regression, wherein each of the variables is examined for its median, which is then used to set a benchmark for potential success (albeit at a cut slightly beneath where the elite teams reside).
This is a pretty straightforward concept. In fact, for anyone who is familiar with statistics, none of what Terps suggested should be especially jarring or upsetting.
Seems odd that you'd have this reaction, but it does explain why you don't really understand statistics.
Having a quarterback throw some arbitrary number of touchdowns has absolutely nothing to do with the overall record of the team. Anyone saying otherwise is just trying to throw another argument against Jones out there. Eli threw for 35 and 14 in 2015....and we absolutely sucked.
Kirk Cousins threw for 35, Vikes didn't make the playoffs. Watson 33, Texans were awful. Herbert 31. Carr 27. Ryan 26.
Since when is offense the only unit in the NFL? I guess defense and special teams have nothing to do with winning? Where is this dumb ass argument coming from?
Here comes another one that wouldn't understand a regression if it smacked him in the face.
Kyler Murray hasn't had 30TD's yet. Josh Allen did it this season for the first time. Baker Mayfield hasn't gotten there. Derek Carr, a BBI favorite, hit 30 TD's once. In 2015. Tannehill did it once - this season.
But Tannehill led a deep run last season without throwing 30 TD's. Jimmy G did the same.
I guess it is OK to set a standard to shoot for - but that standard seems pretty subjective, almost as if pulled from an ass or something.
For some reason, the perception among the serially negative is that Jones is an 11TD a year guy. And they start crafting narratives around the idea that's what he is.
Jones certainly isn’t an 11 TD:year QB. But do you think he’s really a 24-27 TD/year QB (I’m offering him some extra TD’s considering the time he missed in 2019 because I’m a generous fella)?
I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle...so let’s round it off at 20 TD passes and around 12-15 INT’s a year. Not good enough. I’m sorry.
Health/availability being #1
His lack of progression in the pocket/feel/reading defenses
The idea is that the sample of attempts is much larger than TDs and that it leaves out the impact of field position which is generated by defense and special teams, so it isolates offensive performance.
This is where your inability to process this information is on full display, Ryan. The point here is not to debate whether Jones is capable of throwing 30 TDs in a season. Rather, it is a hypothesis that in order for the Giants to have the best chance to be a contender, they as a team need to be able to achieve 30 passing TDs (along with other benchmarks as noted by Terps). And if they're unable to do so, it quantifiably reduces their opportunity to be a real contender.
I'm going to put together a full regression from 2020 and will share the output via Google sheets. I can't imagine anyone will take exception with the findings, and I'm looking forward to seeing if Terps' selection of variables are validated.
The idea is that the sample of attempts is much larger than TDs and that it leaves out the impact of field position which is generated by defense and special teams, so it isolates offensive performance.
I'm going to try to do a full regression today that should give us some insight into which variables have the strongest R scores.
Having a quarterback throw some arbitrary number of touchdowns has absolutely nothing to do with the overall record of the team. Anyone saying otherwise is just trying to throw another argument against Jones out there. Eli threw for 35 and 14 in 2015....and we absolutely sucked.
Kirk Cousins threw for 35, Vikes didn't make the playoffs. Watson 33, Texans were awful. Herbert 31. Carr 27. Ryan 26.
Since when is offense the only unit in the NFL? I guess defense and special teams have nothing to do with winning? Where is this dumb ass argument coming from?
Nobody said achieving those offensive numbers (alone) would guarantee success. What's being argued is that you can't win WITHOUT an offense that can produce those kind of numbers.
Quote:
I'm going to put together a full regression from 2020 and will share the output via Google sheets. I can't imagine anyone will take exception with the findings,
You can't???
Boy, you may need to exercise your inagination!