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Chad Forbes speculates on the Giants Offseason

Anakim : 2/17/2021 11:09 am
Chad Forbes
@NFLDraftBites

Chandler Jones due $15.5M in Final Yr of Cardinals deal. Potential cap causality or even trade target for #Giants. Especially if willing to restructure deal. Just spit balling here. Evan Engram for Chandler Jones?

Chad Forbes
@NFLDraftBites

#Giants Fans won’t love it but expect they pursue Titans UFA WR Corey Davis in Free Agency. Don’t expect Allen Robinson or Chris Godwin get to market. And both will command top WR money. Davis should require deal in $13-$15M range.
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Like the first idea  
eric2425ny : 2/17/2021 11:11 am : link
But not thrilled with paying Davis 13-15 million a year. I’d rather pick up a guy like Higgins and draft another one high then do that.
Chandler Jones  
mittenedman : 2/17/2021 11:13 am : link
would be a great addition. I'd part with Tomlinson to get it done. Jones & Williams on the same DLine - and maybe Rousseau in the draft - and you've got a big time pass rush.
RE: Like the first idea  
Section331 : 2/17/2021 11:14 am : link
In comment 15155237 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
But not thrilled with paying Davis 13-15 million a year. I’d rather pick up a guy like Higgins and draft another one high then do that.


The WR tag is $16.5M, and they're going to pay Corey Davis almost that much? Yuck.

I'd rather pony up for one of the top guys, or go for Samuel or Godwin.
RE: RE: Like the first idea  
eric2425ny : 2/17/2021 11:20 am : link
In comment 15155242 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 15155237 eric2425ny said:


Quote:


But not thrilled with paying Davis 13-15 million a year. I’d rather pick up a guy like Higgins and draft another one high then do that.



The WR tag is $16.5M, and they're going to pay Corey Davis almost that much? Yuck.

I'd rather pony up for one of the top guys, or go for Samuel or Godwin.


Exactly, signing Davis to a deal like that is a total gamble. He has been pretty inconsistent in his first four years. The only receivers I’d spend big on are Robinson, Golladay, or Godwin. If they aren’t available or sign elsewhere I would focus on the draft to find my receivers. Overpaying mediocre talent can really set the team back (eg. Solder, Tate).
Evan Engram for Chandler Jones?  
Jimmy Googs : 2/17/2021 11:22 am : link
At this point, I would trade Engram for Shirley Jones...
I’d even take  
Carl in CT : 2/17/2021 11:26 am : link
Rueben Kincaid (for you old timers).
Yuck  
JonC : 2/17/2021 11:32 am : link
and yuck, two short-sighted and desperate moves.
Always like this song...  
Jimmy Googs : 2/17/2021 11:32 am : link
I think I love you so what am I so afraid of
I'm afraid that I'm not sure of a love there is no cure for

I think I love you isn't that what life is made of
Though it worries me to say that I never felt this way
I get we need talent at WR  
Finch : 2/17/2021 11:33 am : link
but Corey Davis does not excite me.
If it's Corey Davis  
Judge_and_Jury : 2/17/2021 11:38 am : link
I expect the 1st rd pick to be WR
if you sign Davis  
giants#1 : 2/17/2021 11:40 am : link
it needs to be a short term deal (preferably 1 yr, but 3 yrs max) and towards the low end of Forbes' range. Something like 1 yr/$13M or 3 yrs/$30M.

And more importantly, it needs to be combined with drafting a WR high (1st-2nd round). Ideally you get Davis on 1 yr and start the season with him and Slayton as your top 2. Then draft a rookie WR in the 1st/2nd and work him in as his play warrants.

My big concerns with signing any of the top 3 (Robinson, Godwin, Golladay) is it could easily result in the FO passing on a WR in the draft again. Plus, I can easily see any deal for those 3 being a Vernon-type overpay. Very good players getting paid elite dollars.
Pay a lot of money for a 31 year-old CJ?  
Big Blue '56 : 2/17/2021 11:54 am : link
No thanks, big pass
RE: Pay a lot of money for a 31 year-old CJ?  
UConn4523 : 2/17/2021 11:57 am : link
In comment 15155280 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
No thanks, big pass


Not the #1 option but with a restructure/extension to lower the cap hit it could be a savvy move to added a proven player at a position of weakness.

He also tore his bicep in 2020 so he should be pretty fresh for 2021. There's also the Joe Judge connection.
RE: RE: Pay a lot of money for a 31 year-old CJ?  
Big Blue '56 : 2/17/2021 12:00 pm : link
In comment 15155282 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 15155280 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


No thanks, big pass



Not the #1 option but with a restructure/extension to lower the cap hit it could be a savvy move to added a proven player at a position of weakness.

He also tore his bicep in 2020 so he should be pretty fresh for 2021. There's also the Joe Judge connection.


Points taken, but I’m not going to pull back on my Joe Judge trust. If he feels it’s a go and they work out the figures, I’m in.
The desperation motive isn't that we need Chandler Jones  
Jimmy Googs : 2/17/2021 12:03 pm : link
it's that we have to lose Engram...
Overpaying Corey Davis  
beatrixkiddo : 2/17/2021 12:13 pm : link
Is way worse than overpaying a true #1 WR in ARob or Golladay. Unfortunately, I am worried this is exactly what will happen as it’s a classic Gettleman type signing. Ugh. Really hope Judge has a strong say in who they go after.
Corey Davis seems like a guy that's not motivated to be great...  
sb from NYT Forum : 2/17/2021 12:15 pm : link
...and I don't see that changing when he gets over $13 million per year.

Only one year with 16 games. Only 7 100 yd games in his career.

5 were this past year, but he had less 1000 yds for the season. He was more or less invisible except for those 5 games.
I want no parts of Jones...  
Dnew15 : 2/17/2021 12:23 pm : link
for some reason - Corey Davis intrigues me.

It seems like the Titans lucked into AJ Brown at the tail end of rd 2 and are prepared to move on without him.

He's a part of a run first offense and, when healthy, still puts up decent numbers.

If they can get a deal on him - I kinda like what he brings to the table.

Former #5 overall pick - 6'3 209 pds - plays on the outside...
AJ Brown  
JonC : 2/17/2021 12:27 pm : link
is what we're looking for, I really liked him in the draft.
I’d do it for Engram......  
Simms11 : 2/17/2021 12:32 pm : link
absolutely. He could still be very productive at 31. Davis doesn’t excite me at all. He’s not the splashy WR we would want as a #1 however. I also don’t think he’d be the guy to help fix the offense. I’d look to the draft to get that #1 WR and there appears to be quite a few guys that could fit that bill, even after the top 3.
RE: Overpaying Corey Davis  
lax counsel : 2/17/2021 12:35 pm : link
In comment 15155296 beatrixkiddo said:
Quote:
Is way worse than overpaying a true #1 WR in ARob or Golladay. Unfortunately, I am worried this is exactly what will happen as it’s a classic Gettleman type signing. Ugh. Really hope Judge has a strong say in who they go after.


Agreed. Fully expect the Giants to overpay for Davis once Robinson and Golladay are tagged, as a reactionary move. Davis is not a number 1 at all.
I like Davis  
UConn4523 : 2/17/2021 12:37 pm : link
depends on the price though. $13m is a big no, but under $10m and I'm intrigued.
RE: I would trade Engram for Shirley Jones...  
Trainmaster : 2/17/2021 12:38 pm : link
or a Shirley Temple.
Interested in Davis  
ryanmkeane : 2/17/2021 12:59 pm : link
on a 1 or 2 year deal. He’s a true pro even though he’s limited athletically. If we go Pitts and or WRs in the first few rounds, Davis is an intriguing option if he can be had at a decent price. He was very productive last year. But he’s similar to Shepard in the sense that he’s mainly a possession/third down target.
With the Cards being  
Bill in UT : 2/17/2021 2:40 pm : link
my #2 team, I'd hate to have Engram out here
Just for some additional perspective on Corey Davis  
Judge_and_Jury : 2/17/2021 2:47 pm : link
His second half numbers (final 8 games) included 5 100 yd games, with an 11 catch/182 yd game and an 8 catch/128yd game. For a total of 761 yds in 7 games (with one I think he didn't play in).

Was this for the pay day or was it mediocre QB play by Tannehill who doesn't spread the ball well?

Or is he blossoming just at the right time?

The more I think about Davis  
Dnew15 : 2/17/2021 2:53 pm : link
the more I like the idea of bringing him in.

He makes a lot of sense and would seemingly fill a need here.

Especially this year where there are a lot of cap strapped teams - the Giants might be able to get a good deal on him.
I'm ok with Davis  
DavidinBMNY : 2/17/2021 2:56 pm : link
But not at those dollars, not in this reduced cap market. I could see him for sure at 10 mil - but not 15. I think he'll have trouble getting that. The top end guys will get paid but the guys one notch below may be more in a no man's land.
RE: Just for some additional perspective on Corey Davis  
giants#1 : 2/17/2021 2:57 pm : link
In comment 15155472 Judge_and_Jury said:
Quote:
His second half numbers (final 8 games) included 5 100 yd games, with an 11 catch/182 yd game and an 8 catch/128yd game. For a total of 761 yds in 7 games (with one I think he didn't play in).

Was this for the pay day or was it mediocre QB play by Tannehill who doesn't spread the ball well?

Or is he blossoming just at the right time?


Huh? He had 3 100 yd games in the final 7 weeks.

1st 7 games: 34 rec 436 yds 12.8 ypr 3 TDs 70.8 catch%
Last 7 games: 31 rec 548 yds 17.7 ypr 2 TDs 70.5 catch%

Only big difference was yards/reception. And the only Giants WR that even comes close to his 14.7 ypr he's averaged the last 2 seasons is Slayton. Shepard's career avg is 11.2 (and trending downwards), Engram 11.2 (with a pitiful 6.0 y/tgt) for reference.

RE: AJ Brown  
Sammo85 : 2/17/2021 2:58 pm : link
In comment 15155312 JonC said:
Quote:
is what we're looking for, I really liked him in the draft.


Me too.

I think Davis can break out a bit in right situation with a passing offense, but I am not paying that kind of coin (he's not a #1).

Giants need to add some better pass rush/matchup figure in the front 7 to team with LW. Not sure Jones is a fit at his age. I think Reddick is a FA? Maybe they will tag him, but he'd be a better addition for pass rushing off edge and playing in multiples.

Jones at this point isn't a guy who can handle parade of snaps and sell the QB multiple front confusion.
Sammo  
JonC : 2/17/2021 3:01 pm : link
I like Reddick at OLB. If they found a way to sign him and put Carl Lawson on the strong side, sign Ju Ju, retain LW ... they'd be freed up for their draft.
RE: RE: Just for some additional perspective on Corey Davis  
Judge_and_Jury : 2/17/2021 3:03 pm : link
In comment 15155487 giants#1 said:
Quote:
In comment 15155472 Judge_and_Jury said:


Quote:


His second half numbers (final 8 games) included 5 100 yd games, with an 11 catch/182 yd game and an 8 catch/128yd game. For a total of 761 yds in 7 games (with one I think he didn't play in).

Was this for the pay day or was it mediocre QB play by Tannehill who doesn't spread the ball well?

Or is he blossoming just at the right time?




Huh? He had 3 100 yd games in the final 7 weeks.

1st 7 games: 34 rec 436 yds 12.8 ypr 3 TDs 70.8 catch%
Last 7 games: 31 rec 548 yds 17.7 ypr 2 TDs 70.5 catch%

Only big difference was yards/reception. And the only Giants WR that even comes close to his 14.7 ypr he's averaged the last 2 seasons is Slayton. Shepard's career avg is 11.2 (and trending downwards), Engram 11.2 (with a pitiful 6.0 y/tgt) for reference.


You are correct I miscalculated.

I was counting week 8 where he had the 128yd game vs the Bengals. But including that it was 4 not 5 100 yd games.

In any event the numbers are still really really good in the 2nd half.
Davis definitely has  
eric2425ny : 2/17/2021 3:07 pm : link
the speed and measurables at 6’3, 209 (the reason he was picked #5 overall out of a small school like Western Michigan), but not sure I want the Giants shelling out top dollar for a guy who has played 4 years and is still being paid based on “potential.”
RE: RE: RE: Just for some additional perspective on Corey Davis  
giants#1 : 2/17/2021 3:07 pm : link
In comment 15155495 Judge_and_Jury said:
Quote:

You are correct I miscalculated.

I was counting week 8 where he had the 128yd game vs the Bengals. But including that it was 4 not 5 100 yd games.

In any event the numbers are still really really good in the 2nd half.


Ok, but he missed a couple games because of Covid (IIRC) so week 8 was only the 5th game he played last year. And his numbers those first 5 weeks were pretty good. Averaged: 6/74/0.6 while catching ~75% of his targets.
RE: Sammo  
Sammo85 : 2/17/2021 3:08 pm : link
In comment 15155492 JonC said:
Quote:
I like Reddick at OLB. If they found a way to sign him and put Carl Lawson on the strong side, sign Ju Ju, retain LW ... they'd be freed up for their draft.


It would open up some flexibilities to go BPA in front 3 rounds if played out that way.

You like Smith-Schuster as a target? You think they might cut Shepard and Tate?

-
RE: Davis definitely has  
giants#1 : 2/17/2021 3:11 pm : link
In comment 15155497 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
the speed and measurables at 6’3, 209 (the reason he was picked #5 overall out of a small school like Western Michigan), but not sure I want the Giants shelling out top dollar for a guy who has played 4 years and is still being paid based on “potential.”


He's not likely to get "top dollar" though. I think there's a decent chance you can get him on a DeVante Parker like deal.
RE: RE: Sammo  
eric2425ny : 2/17/2021 3:13 pm : link
In comment 15155501 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
In comment 15155492 JonC said:


Quote:


I like Reddick at OLB. If they found a way to sign him and put Carl Lawson on the strong side, sign Ju Ju, retain LW ... they'd be freed up for their draft.



It would open up some flexibilities to go BPA in front 3 rounds if played out that way.

You like Smith-Schuster as a target? You think they might cut Shepard and Tate?

-


I think Smith-Schuster is better than the numbers suggest from last season. I also don’t think he is just a “slot” guy. Big Ben’s arm is shot and they hardly threw the ball downfield. I remember one game where Smith-Schuster had like 8 catches for 37 yards.
If you think Jones is the answer  
weeg in the bronx : 2/17/2021 3:15 pm : link
Corey Davis will be a big help for him. He's a top 20 WR, better than anyone on our roster. Big, tall receiver who has done pretty good in a run first offense.
RE: RE: Sammo  
JonC : 2/17/2021 3:17 pm : link
In comment 15155501 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
In comment 15155492 JonC said:


Quote:


I like Reddick at OLB. If they found a way to sign him and put Carl Lawson on the strong side, sign Ju Ju, retain LW ... they'd be freed up for their draft.



It would open up some flexibilities to go BPA in front 3 rounds if played out that way.

You like Smith-Schuster as a target? You think they might cut Shepard and Tate?

-


Just imo at this point, I think Tate's out and Shep stays. The savings from cutting him isn't worth creating another hole. Also don't think they cut Zeitler, the OL is too young and fragile as is. I'm hoping to hear about their WR targets, nothing yet.
RE: Davis definitely has  
Judge_and_Jury : 2/17/2021 3:19 pm : link
In comment 15155497 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
the speed and measurables at 6’3, 209 (the reason he was picked #5 overall out of a small school like Western Michigan), but not sure I want the Giants shelling out top dollar for a guy who has played 4 years and is still being paid based on “potential.”


Well he did have a fantastic last 8-9 games to the season. So there's that.
RE: Just for some additional perspective on Corey Davis  
shyster : 2/17/2021 3:30 pm : link
In comment 15155472 Judge_and_Jury said:
Quote:
His second half numbers (final 8 games) included 5 100 yd games, with an 11 catch/182 yd game and an 8 catch/128yd game. For a total of 761 yds in 7 games (with one I think he didn't play in).



If you check the snap counts, he did play every game in the second half.

Week 16 he played 82% of snaps and had zero receptions on two targets.

Then Week 18, the playoff game, he again had zero receptions on two targets playing 64% of snaps.

There were camera shots of him on the sidelines in that game, with the Titans offense on the field playing for their season.

That's an unsettling finish for a guy who you might be thinking of giving the big bucks.
Wow  
Bavaro_the_Mafioso : 2/17/2021 3:32 pm : link
Cant think of a better waste of resources than 13-15 million on another #2 WR.
i would bet money  
djm : 2/17/2021 3:55 pm : link
the Giants try and sign one of the lower level WRs like Davis and he will still get paid a lot, because vet FAs always get paid a lot, and 75% of BBI goes ape shit.

But the question people need to ask themselves, before implementing that same freak out response and nurturing that same belief for the next 2-3-4 years is are the Giants better off with an "overpaid" WR or NOTHING at all at WR? Don't just automatically assume that money is better spent elsewhere on some invisible yet magical FA player, assume the money doesn't go to anyone.

Are the Giants better with a big WR who is at least adequate but makes a lot more money than a 4th round pick? That's the question.
RE: RE: Like the first idea  
djm : 2/17/2021 3:58 pm : link
In comment 15155242 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 15155237 eric2425ny said:


Quote:


But not thrilled with paying Davis 13-15 million a year. I’d rather pick up a guy like Higgins and draft another one high then do that.



The WR tag is $16.5M, and they're going to pay Corey Davis almost that much? Yuck.

I'd rather pony up for one of the top guys, or go for Samuel or Godwin.


One of the top guys won't even likely hit FA. And Samuel or Godwin are the top guys--even if they did hit FA, they are going to get a ton more than some lesser guy.

Curious to see how it plays out. Davis isn't great but might fill a hole here if he's ready for it. Godwin would be terrific, but I can't see Tampa or anyone else going away without a fight.
RE: If it's Corey Davis  
djm : 2/17/2021 4:00 pm : link
In comment 15155270 Judge_and_Jury said:
Quote:
I expect the 1st rd pick to be WR


That's an offseason plan at WR I can get behind. David and a first or even second round WR...that works.
Samuel isn't a top guy  
giants#1 : 2/17/2021 4:01 pm : link
He's at best in the 2nd tier of WRs and almost certainly gets less than Davis.

The top guys are: ARob, Godwin and Golladay. Those 3 are likely to get franchise tagged and if they don't they'll easily top $17M per year (I'd wager they get closer to $20M per, especially the former 2).

RE: i would bet money  
chick310 : 2/17/2021 4:06 pm : link
In comment 15155557 djm said:
Quote:
the Giants try and sign one of the lower level WRs like Davis and he will still get paid a lot, because vet FAs always get paid a lot, and 75% of BBI goes ape shit.

But the question people need to ask themselves, before implementing that same freak out response and nurturing that same belief for the next 2-3-4 years is are the Giants better off with an "overpaid" WR or NOTHING at all at WR? Don't just automatically assume that money is better spent elsewhere on some invisible yet magical FA player, assume the money doesn't go to anyone.

Are the Giants better with a big WR who is at least adequate but makes a lot more money than a 4th round pick? That's the question.


Why would anybody assume the alternative is "the money doesn't go to anyone"?

The Giants do not typically operate with a significant cushion under the cap each year. In fact, they take it right up to the limit as the norm.
The thing that scares me about the Giants “settling”  
eric2425ny : 2/17/2021 4:20 pm : link
on and overpaying a second or third tier WR is that we just did this a few years ago. His name is Golden Tate. Solid player, but another slot/#2 or 3 option that isn’t going to command a lot of defensive attention.

I’d rather see is re-sign Tomlinson and draft 2 WR’s (one in either round 1 or 2, and 1 in the 3-5 round range) if none of the top FA receivers are available.
I think it's more about finding  
Dnew15 : 2/17/2021 4:28 pm : link
value in FA than anything else when it comes to Davis.

I have no idea why Davis - a #5 overall pick in the NFL draft wasn't an All-Pro in Tenn. I don't have time to watch the all-22 and break down the strengths and weaknesses of his game. I have some guesse: #1 they want to run the ball first so there's only going to be so many targets to around #2 being that AJ Brown is better than him #3 the 1st two years of his career he was saddled with some horrific QBs #4 injuries have been an issue...

But Judge and Gettleman should be doing their due diligence on every WR...and last year's 2nd tier FA crop worked out pretty well - so they clearly know what they're doing in that department...

I think Corey Davis fits the mold of what the Giants did with Bradberry and Martinez pretty closely last year. I could envision a scenario in which he could be an important piece of this offense moving forward - Like Plaxico was however many years ago.

RE: I think it's more about finding  
eric2425ny : 2/17/2021 4:32 pm : link
In comment 15155581 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
value in FA than anything else when it comes to Davis.

I have no idea why Davis - a #5 overall pick in the NFL draft wasn't an All-Pro in Tenn. I don't have time to watch the all-22 and break down the strengths and weaknesses of his game. I have some guesse: #1 they want to run the ball first so there's only going to be so many targets to around #2 being that AJ Brown is better than him #3 the 1st two years of his career he was saddled with some horrific QBs #4 injuries have been an issue...

But Judge and Gettleman should be doing their due diligence on every WR...and last year's 2nd tier FA crop worked out pretty well - so they clearly know what they're doing in that department...

I think Corey Davis fits the mold of what the Giants did with Bradberry and Martinez pretty closely last year. I could envision a scenario in which he could be an important piece of this offense moving forward - Like Plaxico was however many years ago.


I like Davis at the right price. But the rumored 13-15 million a year seems a bit steep.
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