Was secretly hoping for Odorizzi in the 11th hour but Walker clearly fits the bill. We basically just needed a bridge to Syndergaard’s return in June.
I think we can all rest easy at least knowing the Mets clearly did everything they could to address the starting pitching this year. Stroman, Carrasco, and Walker on top of getting Thor back plus Yamamoto and a Luchessi for depth.
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
Walker finished strong with the Blue Jays last year (1.37 ERA in 6 starts), but has thrown only 66 innings over the last three years.
and Walker will provide that. But I was hoping they would add Odorizzi as well.
How about adding Bryant now? He would be a huge upgrade over JD Davis.
At this point Im kind of ok to just see how it shakes out. I think we've been checking on Bryant but the ask has been ridiculous. At one point, I think the Cubs asked for Alvarez?? Forget it.
McNeil can play 3B (his best position) and Villar and Giuiilorme are likely above average 2B options. Or McNeil can play 2B and we can see if Davis improves. We know he can rake at least.
Its not terrible. And 6 out of our 8 starting position players just made the top 100 list. Its ok to have a question at one spot IMO.
He has an option left, I believe. Fortunately. Because I’d hate to lose him for nothing, but he needs some more time in the minors Link - ( New Window )
beats out Peterson, but until Syndergaard is back it could be a nice competition to see who sticks when he returns (or remain as the 6th man even - I guess even add Yamamoto and Lucchesi to the competition but I put Peterson ahead of both based on track record).
I also think until Lugo is back it's a nice opportunity for veterans like Drew Smith to cement their place on the team (if he's improved his command).
the aforementioned Hunter, Barnes, Montgomery, Smith, McWilliams, Megill. Familia or Betances could get straightened out. I still would like a more reliable 3rd reliever with Lugo out, but it may work itself out
beats out Peterson, but until Syndergaard is back it could be a nice competition to see who sticks when he returns (or remain as the 6th man even - I guess even add Yamamoto and Lucchesi to the competition but I put Peterson ahead of both based on track record).
I also think until Lugo is back it's a nice opportunity for veterans like Drew Smith to cement their place on the team (if he's improved his command).
We'll see. I think Walker is gonna get close to 10 AAV this year. What would we do with Walker? Put him in the pen? Most likely, Peterson would head to AAA in that situation. He has options and also, like I said, he would recoup a year of service time if we sent him there for a bit. Most likely an injury makes it a non issue.
As much as a like the names and camp and am ready to go
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Walker gets $10M in 2021, $7M in 2022. 2023 player option that starts at $6M with escalators can get to $8.5M or $3M buyout on the player option. #Mets All of this is pending a physical.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Walker gets $10M in 2021, $7M in 2022. 2023 player option that starts at $6M with escalators can get to $8.5M or $3M buyout on the player option. #Mets All of this is pending a physical.
Seems like an overpay, but there wasn't much left out there. Wasn't Walker once a top 10 prospect or am I thinking of someone else?
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Walker gets $10M in 2021, $7M in 2022. 2023 player option that starts at $6M with escalators can get to $8.5M or $3M buyout on the player option. #Mets All of this is pending a physical.
Seems like an overpay, but there wasn't much left out there. Wasn't Walker once a top 10 prospect or am I thinking of someone else?
Yes, he was a top 10 prospect, and never lived up to those expectations, but he's still 28 years old so who knows, but I wouldn't expect much.
here's a good blurb from Keith Law's FA preview - had him 19th
19. Taijuan Walker, RHP, age 28
Walker had a big comeback season in 2020, his first healthy campaign since 2017, taking the ball 11 times and posting peripheral stats in line with his pre-Tommy John surgery self, even though he’s down about 1.5 mph from those days. Walker works with four pitches, none of which is really an out pitch, although his curveball could still be that for him. Showing he could stay healthy and hold his stuff even in this short season was a positive step; now he needs to show that he can pitch with the above-average or better control he’ll need (and that he flashes) to pitch effectively with a bucket of grade-50 or -55 pitches. He’s a back-end starter now but has some upside potential to be a league-average guy if his control ticks up or he uses the curveball more often or he regains a little velocity with more time away from surgery. Because of his youth and athleticism, he’ll probably find a lot of interest from teams hoping to score a bargain on a two-year deal.
I think this a real solid upside move, sort of like the McCann deal. There is a wide range of outcomes for both players but at the $ they them for, if they play to the upper bound of their range there will be a lot of surplus value in the contracts. Right before his injury Walker posted a solid first season in the NL and was trending towards a middle of the rotation career. Then he had a lengthy recovery, not unlike Zack Wheeler.
I've made this comparison before and it is not exact, but buying Walker is a lot like buying Wheeler in 2017 after his first year back from injuries. There are obviously no guarantees things click for him like they did with Wheeler but if his performance at the end of last year is any indication it's a possibility. They have a lot of very similar peripherals over their careers even though Wheeler had higher velocity. Many forget that they were ready to cast Wheeler off just 18 months before he got his $100m contract.
7m is below average for SP. If memory serves they gave more money to Vargas 3-4 years ago.
The most appealing aspect of Walker vs. the other SP out there in his price range was multi-year upside, so if they get a guy who is in fact ascending post surgery it's to their benefit to have him controlled for at least 1 extra season at an affordable rate.
Quote:
Seems like an overpay, but there wasn't much left out there. Wasn't Walker once a top 10 prospect or am I thinking of someone else?
I'm not complaining about what might be an overpay. If he stays healthy, I wouldn't be shocked if he has a season that's not a huge difference from Bauer's (especially if the league figures out what sticky substance he's allegedly using); at a tiny fraction of the price.
Of course Walker won't get the same # of starts as Bauer, but I feel better about this signing than I would've paying Bauer 110 million for 3 yrs or whatever it was.
JDG turns 33 this year.
Carrasco is turns 34.
Stroman turns 30. (FA to be)
Thor turns 29. (FA to be coming off TJS)
Peterson is really the only young pitcher they have with a chance to be anything more than a depth guy for a while from the system. And it's not like he's 21, he turns 26 at the end of this season.
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
42s
For luxury tax purposes, Walker’s contract with the player option/buyout counts as 3 yrs, $23M or $7.67M annually. So the #Mets project to about $195M now. The first threshold is $210M.
I can promise you that whatever lineup you draw out, I can make a case that a player is too low. That’s what happens when you have one of the best lineups in baseball.
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
what if they don't get to October?
It won't be because of a few starts missed by a guy returning from TJS.
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
what if they don't get to October?
It won't be because of a few starts missed by a guy returning from TJS.
How do you know?
It often comes down to 1 game.
What if they lose the division by a game and wind up having to play the WC?
Not to rehash all this but medical deicsions and innings limits should be made by the team doctors, the team, and the player, not the fans.
Can someone describe his stuff or give a little summary of what to expect (hope)?
From Keith Law:
Quote:
Walker works with four pitches, none of which is really an out pitch, although his curveball could still be that for him. Showing he could stay healthy and hold his stuff even in this short season was a positive step; now he needs to show that he can pitch with the above-average or better control he’ll need (and that he flashes) to pitch effectively with a bucket of grade-50 or -55 pitches. He’s a back-end starter now but has some upside potential to be a league-average guy if his control ticks up or he uses the curveball more often or he regains a little velocity with more time away from surgery.
Also he supposedly changed the grip on his slider last year and had a lot of success with that newish pitch. Below is an article from last year in ST that talks more about his personality/maturation from big time prospect to where he was last year trying to return from injuries. The maturation of Taijuan Walker: ‘I really want to help the younger guys’ - ( New Window )
It won't be because of a few starts missed by a guy returning from TJS.
How do you know?
It often comes down to 1 game.
What if they lose the division by a game and wind up having to play the WC?
Not to rehash all this but medical deicsions and innings limits should be made by the team doctors, the team, and the player, not the fans.
There are going to be anywhere from 10-30 games decided in the last inning of the game next season. If you want to point to "if it comes down to 1 game", their record in those games is going to be far more important than any single individual start. Bullpen performance, timely hitting, and defense - pretty much in that order of importance - will drive the record in close games. Even more so than the SP performance as we've learned the hard way with JDG's W/L record the last several years.
And not to rehash but nobody here is making a medical commentary. The team is going to have an innings limit limit. Nobody is speculating as to what that limit should be. Just which games are most important for those innings to be utilized. Nobody needs an MD to do simple math.
PJ let me put this into hockey terms (indulge the hypoethetical)
if Carey Price was on a pitch count where he could only start 60 games in a given season for whatever reason, wouldn't you want to be strategic about how many games you played him in the regular season?
If you miss the playoffs by 1 game that would suck but wouldn't it equally suck if you made it to the conf semis and he had already maxed out his limit?
That's all anyone is saying re: Thor. We don't know what his innings limit is and I doubt anyone cares about what the specific number is (or disagrees with whatever # the NYM doctors determine). Only that he has room within that number to pitch a full post season and not get maxed out.
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
what if they don't get to October?
Then he's got some innings left for the September kick to the finish line. And he will be well-rested going into the 2022 season. I don't want to create a Matt Harvey 2.0 situation here.
Play along with my math ?? Is a 120 innings limit reasonable ?? Is average of 6 innings per start reasonable ??
1 win in June = 1 win in September. they literally count exactly the same. If you miss the playoffs by 1 game the loss in June is just as much the reason as the loss in September.
and of course there could be a ton of reasons, simply again saying as fans none of us is qualified to say how much or when Syndergaard should pitch.
Quote:
...Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October...
Lastly, and most importantly science doesn't support any of your fearmongering.
Quote:
.....Post-surgery workload is further reflected by a 2017 study conducted by researchers in California and Michigan. This study opined “a pitcher should be continually evaluated by the medical team through a multifactorial approach personalized to each individual pitcher that evaluates relative fitness, strength, performance, a subjective and objective examination and complaints, as well as volume and stress of individual and cumulative performance.” The researchers found no serious link between pitch count or inning limits and a second UCL injury — a major concern for many who have undergone the procedure before....
he is estimating a random # based on what we've seen with other players to calculate starts. not to speak for named later but I don't think he has any opinion on 120 vs. 130 vs. 140 vs. 80 innings.
And I'm not looking to get into an argument on the medical best practices returning from TJS with the exception of saying every team spends a tremendous amount of resource to rehab these guys as well as possible and every team uses innings limits and pitch counts.
Don't remember the details, but know it was somewhat controversial when the Nats shut down Strasberg the year he came back, when they were headed to the playoffs.
Maybe pj could make the argument that they wouldn't have made it to the playoffs without him and I know games in June count just as much, but I would hate to see the Mets shut down Thor if/when we are heading to the playoffs.
I know it's not a sure thing, but if I was Sandy, I want Thor in Oct and I'm betting on us making it. And for the starts/innings limit, I'm counting backwards from there.
I think we can all rest easy at least knowing the Mets clearly did everything they could to address the starting pitching this year. Stroman, Carrasco, and Walker on top of getting Thor back plus Yamamoto and a Luchessi for depth.
Good job.
@mikemayer22
Walker finished strong with the Blue Jays last year (1.37 ERA in 6 starts), but has thrown only 66 innings over the last three years.
How about adding Bryant now? He would be a huge upgrade over JD Davis.
How about adding Bryant now? He would be a huge upgrade over JD Davis.
At this point Im kind of ok to just see how it shakes out. I think we've been checking on Bryant but the ask has been ridiculous. At one point, I think the Cubs asked for Alvarez?? Forget it.
McNeil can play 3B (his best position) and Villar and Giuiilorme are likely above average 2B options. Or McNeil can play 2B and we can see if Davis improves. We know he can rake at least.
Its not terrible. And 6 out of our 8 starting position players just made the top 100 list. Its ok to have a question at one spot IMO.
2.) Syndergaard
3.) Carrasco
4.) Stroman
5.) Walker
Diaz, Lugo, May, Loup, Betances, Familia, Castro, FA
1.) Nimmo CF
2.) Lindor SS
3.) McNeil 2B
4.) Alonso 1B
5.) Conforto RF
6.) Davis 3B
7.) Dom LF
8.) McCann C
Villar, Pillar, Martinez, Guillorme, Nido
AAA. Yamamoto, Luchessi, Almora Jr, Kilome, Szapucki, D. Smith, etc
There's actually a few guys without options on the 40. I believe Barnes and Kilome are two of them.
I could see them wanting to see how things shake out and maybe looking to add another reliever later into the season at this point.
Somebody like Viscaino was very good not that long ago. It should be an interesting camp.
Can't complain.
Quote:
Only thing I’d take is an additional bullpen arm, but they could always have a guy or two who surprises on that end
There's actually a few guys without options on the 40. I believe Barnes and Kilome are two of them.
I could see them wanting to see how things shake out and maybe looking to add another reliever later into the season at this point.
Somebody like Viscaino was very good not that long ago. It should be an interesting camp.
Hunter or Montgomery also could flash in camp
Link - ( New Window )
I also think until Lugo is back it's a nice opportunity for veterans like Drew Smith to cement their place on the team (if he's improved his command).
Quote:
In comment 15156940 KDavies said:
Quote:
Only thing I’d take is an additional bullpen arm, but they could always have a guy or two who surprises on that end
There's actually a few guys without options on the 40. I believe Barnes and Kilome are two of them.
I could see them wanting to see how things shake out and maybe looking to add another reliever later into the season at this point.
Somebody like Viscaino was very good not that long ago. It should be an interesting camp.
Hunter or Montgomery also could flash in camp
Yeah a bunch of intriguing names. Im even excited to see somebody like Gilliam.
I also think until Lugo is back it's a nice opportunity for veterans like Drew Smith to cement their place on the team (if he's improved his command).
We'll see. I think Walker is gonna get close to 10 AAV this year. What would we do with Walker? Put him in the pen? Most likely, Peterson would head to AAA in that situation. He has options and also, like I said, he would recoup a year of service time if we sent him there for a bit. Most likely an injury makes it a non issue.
Link - ( New Window )
2.) Syndergaard
3.) Carrasco
4.) Stroman
5.) Walker
Diaz, Lugo, May, Loup, Betances, Familia, Castro, FA
1.) Nimmo CF
2.) Lindor SS
3.) McNeil 2B
4.) Alonso 1B
5.) Conforto RF
6.) Davis 3B
7.) Dom LF
8.) McCann C
Villar, Pillar, Martinez, Guillorme, Nido
AAA. Yamamoto, Luchessi, Almora Jr, Kilome, Szapucki, D. Smith, etc
Z. For argument sake. Do the lineup with a DH
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Walker gets $10M in 2021, $7M in 2022. 2023 player option that starts at $6M with escalators can get to $8.5M or $3M buyout on the player option. #Mets All of this is pending a physical.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Walker gets $10M in 2021, $7M in 2022. 2023 player option that starts at $6M with escalators can get to $8.5M or $3M buyout on the player option. #Mets All of this is pending a physical.
Seems like an overpay, but there wasn't much left out there. Wasn't Walker once a top 10 prospect or am I thinking of someone else?
Quote:
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Walker gets $10M in 2021, $7M in 2022. 2023 player option that starts at $6M with escalators can get to $8.5M or $3M buyout on the player option. #Mets All of this is pending a physical.
Seems like an overpay, but there wasn't much left out there. Wasn't Walker once a top 10 prospect or am I thinking of someone else?
Yes, he was a top 10 prospect, and never lived up to those expectations, but he's still 28 years old so who knows, but I wouldn't expect much.
Walker had a big comeback season in 2020, his first healthy campaign since 2017, taking the ball 11 times and posting peripheral stats in line with his pre-Tommy John surgery self, even though he’s down about 1.5 mph from those days. Walker works with four pitches, none of which is really an out pitch, although his curveball could still be that for him. Showing he could stay healthy and hold his stuff even in this short season was a positive step; now he needs to show that he can pitch with the above-average or better control he’ll need (and that he flashes) to pitch effectively with a bucket of grade-50 or -55 pitches. He’s a back-end starter now but has some upside potential to be a league-average guy if his control ticks up or he uses the curveball more often or he regains a little velocity with more time away from surgery. Because of his youth and athleticism, he’ll probably find a lot of interest from teams hoping to score a bargain on a two-year deal.
I think this a real solid upside move, sort of like the McCann deal. There is a wide range of outcomes for both players but at the $ they them for, if they play to the upper bound of their range there will be a lot of surplus value in the contracts. Right before his injury Walker posted a solid first season in the NL and was trending towards a middle of the rotation career. Then he had a lengthy recovery, not unlike Zack Wheeler.
I've made this comparison before and it is not exact, but buying Walker is a lot like buying Wheeler in 2017 after his first year back from injuries. There are obviously no guarantees things click for him like they did with Wheeler but if his performance at the end of last year is any indication it's a possibility. They have a lot of very similar peripherals over their careers even though Wheeler had higher velocity. Many forget that they were ready to cast Wheeler off just 18 months before he got his $100m contract.
The most appealing aspect of Walker vs. the other SP out there in his price range was multi-year upside, so if they get a guy who is in fact ascending post surgery it's to their benefit to have him controlled for at least 1 extra season at an affordable rate.
Quote:
Seems like an overpay, but there wasn't much left out there. Wasn't Walker once a top 10 prospect or am I thinking of someone else?
I'm not complaining about what might be an overpay. If he stays healthy, I wouldn't be shocked if he has a season that's not a huge difference from Bauer's (especially if the league figures out what sticky substance he's allegedly using); at a tiny fraction of the price.
Of course Walker won't get the same # of starts as Bauer, but I feel better about this signing than I would've paying Bauer 110 million for 3 yrs or whatever it was.
Quote:
1.) deGrom
2.) Syndergaard
3.) Carrasco
4.) Stroman
5.) Walker
Diaz, Lugo, May, Loup, Betances, Familia, Castro, FA
1.) Nimmo CF
2.) Lindor SS
3.) McNeil 2B
4.) Alonso 1B
5.) Conforto RF
6.) Davis 3B
7.) Dom LF
8.) McCann C
Villar, Pillar, Martinez, Guillorme, Nido
AAA. Yamamoto, Luchessi, Almora Jr, Kilome, Szapucki, D. Smith, etc
Z. For argument sake. Do the lineup with a DH
1.) Nimmo LF
2.) Lindor SS
3.) McNeil 2B
4.) Alonso DH
5.) Conforto RF
6.) Davis 3B
7.) Dom 1B
8.) McCann C
9.) Pillar/JBJ CF
Carrasco is turns 34.
Stroman turns 30. (FA to be)
Thor turns 29. (FA to be coming off TJS)
Peterson is really the only young pitcher they have with a chance to be anything more than a depth guy for a while from the system. And it's not like he's 21, he turns 26 at the end of this season.
Walker at age 28 is a nice gamble on upside.
42s
For luxury tax purposes, Walker’s contract with the player option/buyout counts as 3 yrs, $23M or $7.67M annually. So the #Mets project to about $195M now. The first threshold is $210M.
I can promise you that whatever lineup you draw out, I can make a case that a player is too low. That’s what happens when you have one of the best lineups in baseball.
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
what if they don't get to October?
Quote:
Re : Thor's return to the rotation
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
what if they don't get to October?
It won't be because of a few starts missed by a guy returning from TJS.
Quote:
In comment 15157064 Named Later said:
Quote:
Re : Thor's return to the rotation
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
what if they don't get to October?
It won't be because of a few starts missed by a guy returning from TJS.
How do you know?
It often comes down to 1 game.
What if they lose the division by a game and wind up having to play the WC?
Not to rehash all this but medical deicsions and innings limits should be made by the team doctors, the team, and the player, not the fans.
From Keith Law:
Also he supposedly changed the grip on his slider last year and had a lot of success with that newish pitch. Below is an article from last year in ST that talks more about his personality/maturation from big time prospect to where he was last year trying to return from injuries.
The maturation of Taijuan Walker: ‘I really want to help the younger guys’ - ( New Window )
It won't be because of a few starts missed by a guy returning from TJS.
How do you know?
It often comes down to 1 game.
What if they lose the division by a game and wind up having to play the WC?
Not to rehash all this but medical deicsions and innings limits should be made by the team doctors, the team, and the player, not the fans.
There are going to be anywhere from 10-30 games decided in the last inning of the game next season. If you want to point to "if it comes down to 1 game", their record in those games is going to be far more important than any single individual start. Bullpen performance, timely hitting, and defense - pretty much in that order of importance - will drive the record in close games. Even more so than the SP performance as we've learned the hard way with JDG's W/L record the last several years.
And not to rehash but nobody here is making a medical commentary. The team is going to have an innings limit limit. Nobody is speculating as to what that limit should be. Just which games are most important for those innings to be utilized. Nobody needs an MD to do simple math.
If you miss the playoffs by 1 game that would suck but wouldn't it equally suck if you made it to the conf semis and he had already maxed out his limit?
That's all anyone is saying re: Thor. We don't know what his innings limit is and I doubt anyone cares about what the specific number is (or disagrees with whatever # the NYM doctors determine). Only that he has room within that number to pitch a full post season and not get maxed out.
Quote:
Re : Thor's return to the rotation
Please, don't overuse this guy early in June. I want him ready for the playoffs this year.
Let's have some fun with baseball math. Feel free to correct any of my numbers, or offer your own estimates --
Thor's innings limit this year = 120 innings ??
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October.
what if they don't get to October?
Then he's got some innings left for the September kick to the finish line. And he will be well-rested going into the 2022 season. I don't want to create a Matt Harvey 2.0 situation here.
Play along with my math ?? Is a 120 innings limit reasonable ?? Is average of 6 innings per start reasonable ??
1 win in June = 1 win in September. they literally count exactly the same. If you miss the playoffs by 1 game the loss in June is just as much the reason as the loss in September.
and of course there could be a ton of reasons, simply again saying as fans none of us is qualified to say how much or when Syndergaard should pitch.
Average innings per start this yr = 6 innings.
Probable starts from Thor this yr = 20 (hold 4 starts for postseason.
16 starts in the regular season, 5 days apart. That's 80 days, or roughly 3 months of schedule......July, August and September.
Please don't burn innings in June that could be used in October...
Lastly, and most importantly science doesn't support any of your fearmongering.
Except that every pitcher coming back from major surgery has some kind of limit. I'm only trying to establish a framework for the season.
And I'm not looking to get into an argument on the medical best practices returning from TJS with the exception of saying every team spends a tremendous amount of resource to rehab these guys as well as possible and every team uses innings limits and pitch counts.
Maybe pj could make the argument that they wouldn't have made it to the playoffs without him and I know games in June count just as much, but I would hate to see the Mets shut down Thor if/when we are heading to the playoffs.
I know it's not a sure thing, but if I was Sandy, I want Thor in Oct and I'm betting on us making it. And for the starts/innings limit, I'm counting backwards from there.