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For Shyts and giggles: A top 11 mock draft

superspynyg : 2/22/2021 4:24 pm
With trades

1 Jax Trevor Lawrence QB
2 Jets Zach Wilson QB
3 Mia Wr Jamar Chase Wr
4 Trade
Chi Justin Fields QB
5 Cin Penie Sewell OT
6 Phi Caleb Farley CB
7 Det Jalen Waddell Wr
8 Car Trey Lance QB
9 Den Micha Parsons LB
10 Dal Kyle Pitts TE

11 NYG Devonte Smith Wr Alabama
Could also go Surtain or OT Slater but Smith is too hard to pass up
Notes
Atl not ready to give up on Ryan ( Authur Blank is very loyal)
I doubt Dallas pass on a te talent like Pitts. JJ loves his star TE’s
DET will sign or FT Golladay they still need more talent on offense. Waddle is deep threat they need.
NE stays put and takes QB Mac Jones.
Chicago trading away more picks  
ryanmkeane : 2/22/2021 4:25 pm : link
for another QB would be classic
I don't see Dallas  
ryanmkeane : 2/22/2021 4:26 pm : link
taking an offensive skill player at 10 overall. That is literally the very last thing they need. But good mock otherwise....in that scenario, I'd choose between Smith and Surtain and it would be close. But I'd go with Smith.
RE: I don't see Dallas  
superspynyg : 2/22/2021 4:32 pm : link
In comment 15158863 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
taking an offensive skill player at 10 overall. That is literally the very last thing they need. But good mock otherwise....in that scenario, I'd choose between Smith and Surtain and it would be close. But I'd go with Smith.




Your using regular logic....
Remember
ITS JJ!!!!
RE: RE: I don't see Dallas  
fanatic II : 2/22/2021 4:52 pm : link
In comment 15158870 superspynyg said:
Quote:
In comment 15158863 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


taking an offensive skill player at 10 overall. That is literally the very last thing they need. But good mock otherwise....in that scenario, I'd choose between Smith and Surtain and it would be close. But I'd go with Smith.





Your using regular logic....
Remember
ITS JJ!!!!


If Dallas takes an offensive player it will be OT. It will not be Pitts. Dallas has Schultz and Jarwin, and they are the 4th options on the offense.

Dallas will take a defensive player at 10. Book it.
I agree, I think Atlanta wants out of that draft spot.  
rasbutant : 2/22/2021 5:18 pm : link
They should stick with Ryan, he isn't the problem there. But they are hard against the CAP and need to get better through the draft. More picks are what they need, also it makes sense moneywise as well...

For example going from there spot #4 to the bears #20, using last years numbers, would be a difference of $32,345,588 - $13,344,613 = ~19M Savings. That's over 4 years. That's a good bit of change.
I Need To Hear More From 'Experts' As Well As Hear Pro Day Results  
Trainmaster : 2/22/2021 5:22 pm : link
regarding both Waddle and D Smith. IMHO, they both have a high ceiling, but I'm worried about a somewhat low floor too.

I think Sewell or Chase (both very likely gone by #11) are the safest non-QB picks. I think Parsons, Surtain and maybe even Pitts might be better picks from a "higher floor" standpoint.

We'll see.

RE: I Need To Hear More From 'Experts' As Well As Hear Pro Day Results  
BMac : 2/22/2021 5:37 pm : link
In comment 15158935 Trainmaster said:
Quote:
regarding both Waddle and D Smith. IMHO, they both have a high ceiling, but I'm worried about a somewhat low floor too.

I think Sewell or Chase (both very likely gone by #11) are the safest non-QB picks. I think Parsons, Surtain and maybe even Pitts might be better picks from a "higher floor" standpoint.

We'll see.


I have a feeling that Smith is going to drop to the teens. Just gut, no analytics. It's so early, and we all know how today's favorites suddenly turn into tomorrow's afterthoughts.
Nice.  
DonQuixote : 2/22/2021 6:38 pm : link
One thing I agree with is Waddle over Smith
I suggest running a bunch of simulated mocks on PFN.  
81_Great_Dane : 2/22/2021 7:42 pm : link
There are a crazy number of ways this could play out. One mock I ran had the Patriots trading into the top 10 to take a QB. Trades are a common occurrence on those mocks. The QB scramble is going to shake up everything.

However, whatever happens in the top 10, most simulations have at least one of Waddle, Smith, Pitts or Chase on the board when the Giants pick. in the minority of sims, where they're all gone, Parsons and Owusu-Koramoah are there. (As I keep saying, I don't think the Giants will take Paye, he's a 4-3 end. But I could be wrong.)

I've tried so many sims that just for fun, I decided to see what happened if I could get a later 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd for the #11 overall. I got MUCH better drafts that way IMO, even without one of those top guys -- that's what 8 picks, including two more in the top 100, does for you. You can almost go BPA and fit team needs. But it would take huge stones and a willing trading partner to do that in real life.
I’m warming up to Pitts...  
Brown_Hornet : 2/22/2021 7:48 pm : link
... he could be the best receiver in the draft.
Hard pass on Pitts  
uncledave : 2/22/2021 7:53 pm : link
If Surtain is there it’s a no brainer imo
Pitts would be difference maker at WR  
Angus : 2/22/2021 8:06 pm : link
But it looks like he will be gone. So, trading back sounds like it could be a good move.
How good is Slater?  
FStubbs : 2/22/2021 8:55 pm : link
Our OL still needs work. Another mauler would be good if we can't get a pass rusher.
The Eagles did not throw a game to move up 4 slots in the draft  
BelieveJJ : 2/22/2021 9:06 pm : link
in order to select CB Caleb Farley.


And bypass Parsons from Penn State.


I'll lay a bet on the field vs Farley and Surtain both, either of them, going to the Eagles at 6.
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