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| Bobby Skinner @BobbySkinner_ Daniel Jones 2020 deep passing thread 20+ air yards from LOS 20/40 50% 652 yards 16.3 Y/A 6 TD 0 INT 2020 rankings First: Deshaun Watson 52% Last: Dwayne Haskins 13% Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game |
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and Jones is improving in every statiscal area but TDs
where does the most promise lay?
He had no real help on Offense this year either.
Give the guy some tools and let's see what he can do -- he is on the right path
This post is not true. Link - ( New Window )
what not true -- Darnold is not regressing?
Jones isn't improving in the majority of statistical areas?
I don't play fantasy football so I'm sure what you're talking about.
That's why I posted the reference page. I can see why you don't play fantasy football - it can sometimes involve math.
And to FMIC's question - the salient question is why do people have to make things up to make Jones seem like a better player than he's been? Why feel the need?
That number sounds way too low. 97% of the time Fields went first option? NFW. I'm calling fake news.
That's why I posted the reference page. I can see why you don't play fantasy football - it can sometimes involve math.
And to FMIC's question - the salient question is why do people have to make things up to make Jones seem like a better player than he's been? Why feel the need?
you know -- I am not making any thing up here -- this is a repost of a Bobby Skinner series of posts that is quite impressive -- maybe it doesn't fit your narrative but I find it promising. Go back to your math book
My recollection is Eli's deep passing numbers would bounce around a lot year to year, but I don't recall for sure.
With that said, I think Jones throws a better ball downfield than he does on short/intermediate routes. I think he sort of sails some of the throws to the sidelines on the short routes sometimes.
I'm hoping we have a more aggressive offense in 2021.
Good post, I think deep passing numbers tend to be up and down for most QBs just due to the small sample size. I also agree with you about Jones throwing a better deep ball than intermediate ball.
IMO, my favorite skill that Jones has is his touch. I think he just naturally has good touch on his throws which is important for downfield passes. I think his power/accuracy in the intermediate range is pretty mediocre at this point in his career.
Guys like Philip Rivers and Drew Brees were great downfield passers and all-around passers in their prime due to their elite touch and accuracy, even if they lacked big arms. Hopefully Jones can figure it out and get close to that level.
Also for what it's worth, Skinner HATES garrett's offense. So are we going along with that belief too? Some folks don't seem willing to accept anything less than "Garrett knows what he's doing".
go tell Bobby Skinner about it -- and find some film to back it up like he did
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You said Jones is improving in a majority of statistical areas. That is not true.
go tell Bobby Skinner about it -- and find some film to back it up like he did
You're making an easily defensible, quantitative claim.
What do you define as the major statistical areas and which ones did Jones improve?
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In comment 15160641 Go Terps said:
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You said Jones is improving in a majority of statistical areas. That is not true.
go tell Bobby Skinner about it -- and find some film to back it up like he did
You're making an easily defensible, quantitative claim.
What do you define as the major statistical areas and which ones did Jones improve?
read the op please
But then later you say:
gidiefor : Mod : 2/23/2021 6:29 pm : link : reply
and Jones is improving in every statiscal area but TDs
Are you saying all of his stats except TDs are improving only on deep passing opportunities?
Jones is very good on the long ball. In those cases, the receiver has already earned his separation from the DB or safety and Jones hits them fairly accurately. In the short and intermediate game, things happen a lot quicker.
I think we can all agree that our WR's, TE's & Rb's are not particularly NFL caliber. They don't get good separation nor do any of them, besides Shepard have good hands. That is more likely the reason short and intermediate passes rarely get into the end zone. I think it is more on the surrounding talent than Jones.
We'll find out for sure next year if he gets some quality help on offense.
The Darnold argument is head scratching as well. If we look at year 2 for each qb, Sam Darnold was better in every measure than Jones, including wins. Yet we are favorably comparing Jones to Darnold? Arguably, Darnold had a worst supporting cast than Jones did this year. Year 3 is a complete throwaway, because we do not know how Jones performs in the coming season, whereas we have analysis on Darnold. This point smacks of homerism and provides further evidence that if Jones was the qb of any other team, including a division rival, those praising Jones would be having a laugh over that teams qb predicament.
I do not know what Jones will be, but at best, all that can be said is he's a big question mark at year 3. Claiming that he's going to be good and here are "X" reasons why is nothing more than wishful thinking at this point.
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the amount of whining by grown men
Producer : 10:16 am : link : reply
on BBI about negative views of Jones' performance is amusing.
Why on every thread about Jones do certain posters feel the need to come in and post negative takes? Why do they have to refute what Skinner says by linking to a pro-football-reference page?
These are the types of actions that raise questions on the motivations behind the posts.
Why does positive information about Jones trigger certain posters to feel the need to refute it?
That's really the more salient question to pose.
Because certain posters made it clear on draft night that Jones and DG suck. They would rather be right than have the giants be good. So called fans.
Also for what it's worth, Skinner HATES garrett's offense. So are we going along with that belief too? Some folks don't seem willing to accept anything less than "Garrett knows what he's doing".
Yes Garrett's offense sucks.
I'm not sure if gidiefor misspoke -- but he definitely made a confusing observation. He seemed to make a blanket claim about Jones that exceeded the observation Skinner made, and the accuracy of that claim got questioned.
You fact check the hell out of people. Should go both ways, regardless if it's a positive or negative observation, no?
Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"
So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?
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Why on every thread about Jones do certain posters feel the need to come in and post negative takes? Why do they have to refute what Skinner says by linking to a pro-football-reference page?
I'm not sure if gidiefor misspoke -- but he definitely made a confusing observation. He seemed to make a blanket claim about Jones that exceeded the observation Skinner made, and the accuracy of that claim got questioned.
You fact check the hell out of people. Should go both ways, regardless if it's a positive or negative observation, no?
You're joking, right?
was the most accurate QB that I have ever seen in his era. And, the Dallas Cowboys finished 1-15 his first year (?)
Then, THEN they put a HOF line of scrimmage in front of him, gave him a HOF RB, and a HOF WR .... and he was the QB of 3 super bowls?
Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"
So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?
YPA and AY/A were not better. Yards per game were down and his conventional Passer Rating was down.
And you just can't casually say TDs were down without acknowledging that impact - TD/INT differential and overall points. It's a massive drop in production.
drueling ... how do you spell drool?
Over the names on that Defense. Unbelievable . ...
Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"
So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?
Re-reading Skinner's Tweet, I see what you mean now. I originally thought his two thoughts were connected -- and that he was only claiming Jones's deep numbers improved.
But Skinner's not right, there are plenty of areas where Jones wasn't better in 2019.
He threw for fewer yards, first downs, and touch downs per game in 2020.
He had the same yards per attempt, and few yards per adjusted attempt.
drueling ... how do you spell drool?
Over the names on that Defense. Unbelievable . ...
LOL - sorry - wrong thread. I am watching the KC game from 1984 and commenting on another thread.
Don't post and drink Kids .....
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basic comprehension guys
Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"
So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?
YPA and AY/A were not better. Yards per game were down and his conventional Passer Rating was down.
And you just can't casually say TDs were down without acknowledging that impact - TD/INT differential and overall points. It's a massive drop in production.
And it's important to remember the 2019 level of production was poor to begin with.
For emphasis: Jones had a poor rookie season.
When I first read it I thought he was saying Jones’s deep ball stats were are all up, and that he meant 6 TDs.
If you’re looking YoY overall, the only areas that Jones improved in the passing game were 1) a slightly lower interception per attempt percentage and 2) a slightly higher completion percentage.
I’ll do the math later and pull out the numbers from the garbage time game in 2019, and just look at his starts. With a cursory view I think it’s safe to say even per start he had fewer TDs per start, fewer first downs per start, and fewer yards per start.
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In comment 15160862 gidiefor said:
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basic comprehension guys
Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"
So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?
YPA and AY/A were not better. Yards per game were down and his conventional Passer Rating was down.
And you just can't casually say TDs were down without acknowledging that impact - TD/INT differential and overall points. It's a massive drop in production.
And it's important to remember the 2019 level of production was poor to begin with.
For emphasis: Jones had a poor rookie season.
So a rookie has issues as a rookie and then makes improvements as a sophomore even under difficult circumstances and this is dismissed out of hand. Boy it sucks to be you.
Jones has sucked the last two years. Completely sucked. That isn't up for debate. You want to believe he'll be great, that's a different matter. But two years in he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and he'll be that until something about his game changes radically.
Jones is pretty good at two things — running the football and throwing over 20 yards. That’s where these amateur analysts should focus and not try and over reach.
Jones has sucked the last two years. Completely sucked. That isn't up for debate. You want to believe he'll be great, that's a different matter. But two years in he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and he'll be that until something about his game changes radically.
Hey -- that's what I say about reading your stuff -- you're stealing my lines now too -- lol
I totally disagree with you. Skinner see's improvement. I listen and watch, and it passes the eye test. Despite what you keep insisting above it passes the stat test too -- you are intentionally ignoring the stats that you posted, and you are misrepresenting them. Skinners film review shows positive aspects of his game. You probably aren't even watching any of it 'cause it's not on your point. Just keep putting Jones down no matter what. No rinsing. Repeat over and over that everything is wrong. You don't know what you are talking about
Guess what. when it comes to long pass percentage -- Jones is near the top of the league -- 2 percentage points from the top guy.
Repeat after me -- Jones improved on his turnovers this year. He improved his completion percentage this year. He has one of the highest long pass conversion rates in the league this year. His QBR went up this year. He did this without having any skill players, more sacks, and less passes -- there is reason to hope.
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Actually, a rookie had a poor rookie season and then followed it up with an even worse performance his second year. What sucks is having to read people like you make shit up because you are unwilling to accept the possibility that the Giants aren't super awesome.
Jones has sucked the last two years. Completely sucked. That isn't up for debate. You want to believe he'll be great, that's a different matter. But two years in he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and he'll be that until something about his game changes radically.
Hey -- that's what I say about reading your stuff -- you're stealing my lines now too -- lol
I totally disagree with you. Skinner see's improvement. I listen and watch, and it passes the eye test. Despite what you keep insisting above it passes the stat test too -- you are intentionally ignoring the stats that you posted, and you are misrepresenting them. Skinners film review shows positive aspects of his game. You probably aren't even watching any of it 'cause it's not on your point. Just keep putting Jones down no matter what. No rinsing. Repeat over and over that everything is wrong. You don't know what you are talking about
Guess what. when it comes to long pass percentage -- Jones is near the top of the league -- 2 percentage points from the top guy.
Repeat after me -- Jones improved on his turnovers this year. He improved his completion percentage this year. He has one of the highest long pass conversion rates in the league this year. His QBR went up this year. He did this without having any skill players, more sacks, and less passes -- there is reason to hope.
Save your breath gidie. Terps and his crew will continue their stick until either Jones wins or her doesn't. If he wins, they will disappear until he stops winning. Just like BW did with Eli. Ignore them.
Posters like Terps and I will be very happy if Jones turns the corner and becomes a good quarterback.
I get fans who have faith Jones will turn it around, and more so I get fans who want it. But it’s hard to take a debate really seriously when someone claims he improved in every stat — and references a tweet that 1) got the numbers of TDs he threw last year wrong 2) ignores he threw fewer TDs, first downs, and yards per game. Those are the basic stats. Forget about the other metrics where he was also flat or down.
The Giants offense was terrible. Gettleman has done a horrible job on that side of the ball. No one is denying it. Whether that’s the main reason or a lesser reason why Jones sucks is certainly up for debate.
It doesn't mean you can just turn him loose and bomb it deep like Eli used to and expect he'll lead the league in completing them. The quarterbacks who complete a good percentage of deep shots are the best QBs in the game because they do it on a larger volume of throws.
It's easier to have a higher percentage when you pick your spots conservatively and carefully.
Think about it...if those extra passes were all touchdowns then Jones would have doubled his actual 2020 output of 11 touchdown.
Pretty meaningful...
It doesn't mean you can just turn him loose and bomb it deep like Eli used to and expect he'll lead the league in completing them. The quarterbacks who complete a good percentage of deep shots are the best QBs in the game because they do it on a larger volume of throws.
It's easier to have a higher percentage when you pick your spots conservatively and carefully.
Correct, and as evidence (per Pro Football Reference) I present Daniel Jones' 7.1 average intended air yards per attempt - which was good for 27th in the league. Combined with an overall on target percentage of 75.2 (27th) it suggests that Jones is neither an aggressive nor accurate passer in a general sense.
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Why on every thread about Jones do certain posters feel the need to come in and post negative takes? Why do they have to refute what Skinner says by linking to a pro-football-reference page?
I'm not sure if gidiefor misspoke -- but he definitely made a confusing observation. He seemed to make a blanket claim about Jones that exceeded the observation Skinner made, and the accuracy of that claim got questioned.
You fact check the hell out of people. Should go both ways, regardless if it's a positive or negative observation, no?
This is really disingenuous and hypocritical. gidie retweeted something Bobby Skinner posted. I didn't know it was incumbent on me to delve into Bobby Skinner's post. I have said nothing on this thread to confirm or refute what gidie said.
You also fact check the hell out of posters you disagree with. You do the same thing.
You have a current thread talking about the salary cap where you actually call people "cap deniers" who don't buy into the premise and yet on that thread, there's a horseshit post by Go Terps saying that teams don't build through FA. Why don't you ever "fact check" his posts? Why didn't you "fact check" the posts by the analytics guys when they posted outright falsehoods? Why don't you challenge known dupes who agree with you for their legitimacy?
It does go both ways, and you are as guilty as what you are questioning for others. But that's par for the course.
Record was better
Comp% was better (marginally)
TD% was worse
INT% was better
Yards/Attempt equal (Adjusted Y/A is redundant since it combines comp%, Y/A, TD%, and INT%)
QBR better
Sack% worse
Rushing Y/A better
Fumbles better
Also of note is that yards after catch were down by a full yard in 2020. It's debatable how much of YAC is due to ball placement vs the receivers ability, but the absence of Barkley certainly didn't help here and simply matching 2019s number would've added ~0.5 yard to his Y/A.
Additionally, Giants receivers dropped 3.8% of his passes in 2019 vs 5.3% in 2020.
Pressure% (hurried/hit/sacked) was roughly equal both seasons so the higher sack% is probably partly a result of improved decision making and not forcing some throw which the lower INT% supports).
I think the actual data supports gidiefor (and Skinner) that outside of TDs, he was consistently better (almost) across the board.
Big if true.
Where did I say this?
Where did I say this?
Don't think you did. Djm just made a poor interpretation of one of your posts and suggested it himself.
And then fmic just used it in true trolling fashion to try and help himself out here. He's just having a tough day...
That doesn't excuse what he isn't good at, just trying to put in context that the 2019-2020 stats kinda don't mean much. I think its a good sign that the trajectory on his turnovers improve dramatically. 16 turnovers in 14 games vs 23 in 13 games - that .62 fewer per game - 10 less over a full 16 games. That's massive. If that sticks I think we are in pretty good shape in 2021, assuming that we upgrade at WR and Barkley is close to 100%.
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"You have a current thread talking about the salary cap where you actually call people "cap deniers" who don't buy into the premise and yet on that thread, there's a horseshit post by Go Terps saying that teams don't build through FA."
Where did I say this?
Don't think you did. Djm just made a poor interpretation of one of your posts and suggested it himself.
And then fmic just used it in true trolling fashion to try and help himself out here. He's just having a tough day...
LOL. I'm having a tough day? I think I've made a total of 5 posts, but always glad to be evaluated by an outed dupe.
You're having a bad year, no?
That doesn't excuse what he isn't good at, just trying to put in context that the 2019-2020 stats kinda don't mean much. I think its a good sign that the trajectory on his turnovers improve dramatically. 16 turnovers in 14 games vs 23 in 13 games - that .62 fewer per game - 10 less over a full 16 games. That's massive. If that sticks I think we are in pretty good shape in 2021, assuming that we upgrade at WR and Barkley is close to 100%.
Would suggest Jones needs to show a higher level of productivity while also keeping the turnovers to a reasonable level. The offense cannot be kept in some type of slow gear because they are so overly concerned with Jones not taking care of the ball.
It does go both ways, and you are as guilty as what you are questioning for others. But that's par for the course.
You're too funny Gordo. The cap denier comment is a joke between djm and I, that he got and responded to, apologies that was over your head.
I disagree with Terps all of the time. In that thread, I disagree with his premise the Giants shouldn't focus on upgrading the offense. I've argued with Terps from the dawn of time on topics like Beckham, Justin Tuck, culture in the locker room etc.
I've got no skin in the game intervening in your incessant rants with MCL and NGD, because I have no idea about the inner workings of the Carolina Panthers nor anyone's LinkedIn accounts.
As far as posters who aren't who they say they are -- I don't have the crystal ball you seem to have access to -- if you'd like to share that would killer.
Record was better
Comp% was better (marginally)
TD% was worse
INT% was better
Yards/Attempt equal (Adjusted Y/A is redundant since it combines comp%, Y/A, TD%, and INT%)
QBR better
Sack% worse
Rushing Y/A better
Fumbles better
But points per start, yards per start, and first downs per start were down.
I think a more fair assessment is some stats were up, some were down.
Or are they metrics only Jones can affect?
Done misunderstand where I stand on Jones...I still cant tell whether he can decide/process fast enough or he has been given a collection of guys who cant get separation? or both? or not schemed well enough? of all four?
One thing us outsiders dont consider is that among his options are the two slowest to conclude:
1) On this play what is the risky but might get us downfield?
2) Should I run or throw it away?
3) If throw it away, what is the least likely to be penalized (who look close to a sideline?)
4) Where are my feet/time available and how do I do that?
I think we forget that pocket processing speed doesn't just apply to a choice of the top two options to gain but also to the proper/low risk execution of a compromised/busted play.
In that sense, I cant tell about improvements to his upward gain decision processes/speed - but the metrics show improved decision and processing of the bad risk options side of the curve.
Now...how can a QB simultaneously improve decision making and execution on 50% of the plays and yet we ( me included) conclude we lost plays because he alone is the cause of plays not made?
Please dont misunderstand...im not sold on Jones as good enough for consistent play off winning QB play without "too much" of a team around him.
Im just looking at the full arc of metrics and questioning if the data leads to a conclusion of inadequacy on decision and processing speed.
(And my eyeball view seems to feed into a guy who is too often hesitating I just cant hang that on Jones yet because the data shows better processing on the down slope situations). And we all realize he is not ever going to be in the elite creative zone of a Rodgers/Mahomes/Wilson when plays go sideways. Nor force some balls in at great velocity at an Elway/Farve level of capability.
Fortunately there are more contributions a full QB makes to a team than spectacular rescue plays.
What I dont know is can we build a playoff winning team without a super team around him? And I point out, overpaying a great QB produces a compromised team as well if every draft does not produce better than NFL average luck per draftee and results
make some sense to consider?
1) he's got the requisite skills to be a good, not great QB
2) it's almost always the coaching and system
Now too many red flags for me to believe he's a guy who will overcome on his own (he's not a Barkley, OBJ, Barber) on a shitty team.
That's why I say mixed bag. He's got two plus skills, straight line speed, deep ball accuracy. A game planner can work with that.
I'm fine with year a 1 & 2 QB being a passenger. By year 3 he's got to be a pilot.
Stack up all the wrongs and rights with the team, he's got to pull up the wrongs and not be waiting on the rights.
So to tie that in with your comment, you point to incremental improvements in certain areas. I don’t disagree, but he needs to improve more in those and still improve in other areas where he is deficient. It’s a tall order and makes me think Jones is a project and no where near a finished product.
As we did with Eli and Simms and a host of non NYG Qb's who improved on a host of deficits in their first five years. ( including Brees and Brady and Aikman, etc)
Im not listing those guys to advocate that he is the answer. My point is that we are not going to know in just 2021 and with just an over investment in a WR instead of a team.
I point out for those who have already concluded we need a better QB...for him to succeed when hired he needs a pocket/a consistent good running game and several pretty good receiving options...plus good field position and a few turnovers from the opposition and no runaway games by the opposing offense.
So to me for 2021 offseason...team not QB test is the priority no matter what the final judgement on Jones.
I root for the team not sub-outcomes for components.
Just like I know you do.
Hope you and yours are well cosmicj.