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Bobby Skinner's Daniel Jones Deep Passing Thread

gidiefor : Mod : 2/23/2021 5:12 pm
Quote:
Bobby Skinner
@BobbySkinner_

Daniel Jones 2020 deep passing thread

20+ air yards from LOS
20/40 50%
652 yards 16.3 Y/A
6 TD 0 INT

2020 rankings
First: Deshaun Watson 52%
Last: Dwayne Haskins 13%

Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game

- more including tape in separate tweets of every deep pass by Jones in 2020 - - ( New Window )
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RE: RE: Meantime Darnold has steadily been getting worse  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/24/2021 1:59 pm : link
In comment 15160195 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 15159893 gidiefor said:


Quote:


and Jones is improving in every statiscal area but TDs

where does the most promise lay?

He had no real help on Offense this year either.

Give the guy some tools and let's see what he can do -- he is on the right path



This post is not true. Link - ( New Window )


what not true -- Darnold is not regressing?

Jones isn't improving in the majority of statistical areas?


I don't play fantasy football so I'm sure what you're talking about.
not sure  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/24/2021 2:00 pm : link
that is
This isn't true  
Go Terps : 2/24/2021 2:05 pm : link
Jones isn't improving in the majority of statistical areas?

That's why I posted the reference page. I can see why you don't play fantasy football - it can sometimes involve math.

And to FMIC's question - the salient question is why do people have to make things up to make Jones seem like a better player than he's been? Why feel the need?
RE: For those concerned about Jones' ability to get off his  
bw in dc : 2/24/2021 2:06 pm : link
In comment 15160572 Now Mike in MD said:
Quote:
first read quickly, that may be a bigger issue with Fields. Tony Pasuline qouted an NFL tema that broke down 200 of Fields' passes and found that he did not go to his primary target on only 7. Link - ( New Window )


That number sounds way too low. 97% of the time Fields went first option? NFW. I'm calling fake news.
RE: This isn't true  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/24/2021 2:16 pm : link
In comment 15160630 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Jones isn't improving in the majority of statistical areas?

That's why I posted the reference page. I can see why you don't play fantasy football - it can sometimes involve math.

And to FMIC's question - the salient question is why do people have to make things up to make Jones seem like a better player than he's been? Why feel the need?


you know -- I am not making any thing up here -- this is a repost of a Bobby Skinner series of posts that is quite impressive -- maybe it doesn't fit your narrative but I find it promising. Go back to your math book

RE: ......  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 2/24/2021 2:18 pm : link
In comment 15160451 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Are these numbers replicable year-over-year? Meaning, is this a real skill being shown in the numbers or just noise?

My recollection is Eli's deep passing numbers would bounce around a lot year to year, but I don't recall for sure.

With that said, I think Jones throws a better ball downfield than he does on short/intermediate routes. I think he sort of sails some of the throws to the sidelines on the short routes sometimes.

I'm hoping we have a more aggressive offense in 2021.


Good post, I think deep passing numbers tend to be up and down for most QBs just due to the small sample size. I also agree with you about Jones throwing a better deep ball than intermediate ball.

IMO, my favorite skill that Jones has is his touch. I think he just naturally has good touch on his throws which is important for downfield passes. I think his power/accuracy in the intermediate range is pretty mediocre at this point in his career.

Guys like Philip Rivers and Drew Brees were great downfield passers and all-around passers in their prime due to their elite touch and accuracy, even if they lacked big arms. Hopefully Jones can figure it out and get close to that level.

gidie  
Go Terps : 2/24/2021 2:19 pm : link
You said Jones is improving in a majority of statistical areas. That is not true.
I love skinner. I think he's great  
Ten Ton Hammer : 2/24/2021 2:26 pm : link
But I'm pretty sure he's decided to take the point that he's not going to issue any hard decisions on jones until they fix the OL and get a WR.

Also for what it's worth, Skinner HATES garrett's offense. So are we going along with that belief too? Some folks don't seem willing to accept anything less than "Garrett knows what he's doing".
RE: gidie  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/24/2021 2:27 pm : link
In comment 15160641 Go Terps said:
Quote:
You said Jones is improving in a majority of statistical areas. That is not true.


go tell Bobby Skinner about it -- and find some film to back it up like he did
RE: RE: gidie  
christian : 2/24/2021 2:47 pm : link
In comment 15160651 gidiefor said:
Quote:
In comment 15160641 Go Terps said:


Quote:


You said Jones is improving in a majority of statistical areas. That is not true.



go tell Bobby Skinner about it -- and find some film to back it up like he did


You're making an easily defensible, quantitative claim.

What do you define as the major statistical areas and which ones did Jones improve?
RE: RE: RE: gidie  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/24/2021 2:54 pm : link
In comment 15160678 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 15160651 gidiefor said:


Quote:


In comment 15160641 Go Terps said:


Quote:


You said Jones is improving in a majority of statistical areas. That is not true.



go tell Bobby Skinner about it -- and find some film to back it up like he did



You're making an easily defensible, quantitative claim.

What do you define as the major statistical areas and which ones did Jones improve?


read the op please
...  
christian : 2/24/2021 4:52 pm : link
Your stance is confusing honestly. The opening post is about one scenario -- deep passes.

But then later you say:

Quote:

gidiefor : Mod : 2/23/2021 6:29 pm : link : reply
and Jones is improving in every statiscal area but TDs


Are you saying all of his stats except TDs are improving only on deep passing opportunities?
I think Jones has what it takes  
csh2z : 2/24/2021 5:02 pm : link
to succeed in the NFL. Statistics are a means of comparison but only that.

Jones is very good on the long ball. In those cases, the receiver has already earned his separation from the DB or safety and Jones hits them fairly accurately. In the short and intermediate game, things happen a lot quicker.

I think we can all agree that our WR's, TE's & Rb's are not particularly NFL caliber. They don't get good separation nor do any of them, besides Shepard have good hands. That is more likely the reason short and intermediate passes rarely get into the end zone. I think it is more on the surrounding talent than Jones.

We'll find out for sure next year if he gets some quality help on offense.
This is quite interesting...  
lax counsel : 2/24/2021 5:18 pm : link
Daniel Jones was statistically one of the least effective starting qbs in the league this year, yet we are using statistics to show growth? I can very much understand those making arguments on the abilities of Jones. Which, at best, is questionable and subjective, but at least beyond any material refute like a statistical analysis.

The Darnold argument is head scratching as well. If we look at year 2 for each qb, Sam Darnold was better in every measure than Jones, including wins. Yet we are favorably comparing Jones to Darnold? Arguably, Darnold had a worst supporting cast than Jones did this year. Year 3 is a complete throwaway, because we do not know how Jones performs in the coming season, whereas we have analysis on Darnold. This point smacks of homerism and provides further evidence that if Jones was the qb of any other team, including a division rival, those praising Jones would be having a laugh over that teams qb predicament.

I do not know what Jones will be, but at best, all that can be said is he's a big question mark at year 3. Claiming that he's going to be good and here are "X" reasons why is nothing more than wishful thinking at this point.
RE: This should really...  
fireitup77 : 2/24/2021 5:33 pm : link
In comment 15160386 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
be turned around.



Quote:


the amount of whining by grown men
Producer : 10:16 am : link : reply
on BBI about negative views of Jones' performance is amusing.




Why on every thread about Jones do certain posters feel the need to come in and post negative takes? Why do they have to refute what Skinner says by linking to a pro-football-reference page?

These are the types of actions that raise questions on the motivations behind the posts.

Why does positive information about Jones trigger certain posters to feel the need to refute it?

That's really the more salient question to pose.



Because certain posters made it clear on draft night that Jones and DG suck. They would rather be right than have the giants be good. So called fans.
RE: I love skinner. I think he's great  
fireitup77 : 2/24/2021 5:37 pm : link
In comment 15160646 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
But I'm pretty sure he's decided to take the point that he's not going to issue any hard decisions on jones until they fix the OL and get a WR.

Also for what it's worth, Skinner HATES garrett's offense. So are we going along with that belief too? Some folks don't seem willing to accept anything less than "Garrett knows what he's doing".


Yes Garrett's offense sucks.
RE: This should really...  
christian : 2/24/2021 5:46 pm : link
In comment 15160386 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
Why on every thread about Jones do certain posters feel the need to come in and post negative takes? Why do they have to refute what Skinner says by linking to a pro-football-reference page?


I'm not sure if gidiefor misspoke -- but he definitely made a confusing observation. He seemed to make a blanket claim about Jones that exceeded the observation Skinner made, and the accuracy of that claim got questioned.

You fact check the hell out of people. Should go both ways, regardless if it's a positive or negative observation, no?
you guys who are bent on pining an over statement on me  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/24/2021 6:07 pm : link
basic comprehension guys

Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"

So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?
RE: RE: This should really...  
Jimmy Googs : 2/24/2021 6:15 pm : link
In comment 15160856 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 15160386 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


Why on every thread about Jones do certain posters feel the need to come in and post negative takes? Why do they have to refute what Skinner says by linking to a pro-football-reference page?



I'm not sure if gidiefor misspoke -- but he definitely made a confusing observation. He seemed to make a blanket claim about Jones that exceeded the observation Skinner made, and the accuracy of that claim got questioned.

You fact check the hell out of people. Should go both ways, regardless if it's a positive or negative observation, no?


You're joking, right?
All I know is this .... Troy Aikman  
short lease : 2/24/2021 7:34 pm : link

was the most accurate QB that I have ever seen in his era. And, the Dallas Cowboys finished 1-15 his first year (?)


Then, THEN they put a HOF line of scrimmage in front of him, gave him a HOF RB, and a HOF WR .... and he was the QB of 3 super bowls?


RE: you guys who are bent on pining an over statement on me  
bw in dc : 2/24/2021 7:38 pm : link
In comment 15160862 gidiefor said:
Quote:
basic comprehension guys

Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"

So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?


YPA and AY/A were not better. Yards per game were down and his conventional Passer Rating was down.

And you just can't casually say TDs were down without acknowledging that impact - TD/INT differential and overall points. It's a massive drop in production.
OMG ....  
short lease : 2/24/2021 7:40 pm : link

drueling ... how do you spell drool?

Over the names on that Defense. Unbelievable . ...
RE: you guys who are bent on pining an over statement on me  
christian : 2/24/2021 7:41 pm : link
In comment 15160862 gidiefor said:
Quote:
basic comprehension guys

Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"

So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?


Re-reading Skinner's Tweet, I see what you mean now. I originally thought his two thoughts were connected -- and that he was only claiming Jones's deep numbers improved.

But Skinner's not right, there are plenty of areas where Jones wasn't better in 2019.

He threw for fewer yards, first downs, and touch downs per game in 2020.

He had the same yards per attempt, and few yards per adjusted attempt.
RE: OMG ....  
short lease : 2/24/2021 7:43 pm : link
In comment 15160914 short lease said:
Quote:

drueling ... how do you spell drool?

Over the names on that Defense. Unbelievable . ...


LOL - sorry - wrong thread. I am watching the KC game from 1984 and commenting on another thread.

Don't post and drink Kids .....
RE: RE: you guys who are bent on pining an over statement on me  
Go Terps : 2/24/2021 7:44 pm : link
In comment 15160911 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15160862 gidiefor said:


Quote:


basic comprehension guys

Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"

So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?



YPA and AY/A were not better. Yards per game were down and his conventional Passer Rating was down.

And you just can't casually say TDs were down without acknowledging that impact - TD/INT differential and overall points. It's a massive drop in production.


And it's important to remember the 2019 level of production was poor to begin with.

For emphasis: Jones had a poor rookie season.
...  
christian : 2/24/2021 9:06 pm : link
I think Skinner is a pretty good amateur analyst, but that post is a little bit of a mess. Jones threw 11 not 10 TDs overall.

When I first read it I thought he was saying Jones’s deep ball stats were are all up, and that he meant 6 TDs.

If you’re looking YoY overall, the only areas that Jones improved in the passing game were 1) a slightly lower interception per attempt percentage and 2) a slightly higher completion percentage.

I’ll do the math later and pull out the numbers from the garbage time game in 2019, and just look at his starts. With a cursory view I think it’s safe to say even per start he had fewer TDs per start, fewer first downs per start, and fewer yards per start.
RE: RE: RE: you guys who are bent on pining an over statement on me  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/24/2021 10:11 pm : link
In comment 15160918 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 15160911 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 15160862 gidiefor said:


Quote:


basic comprehension guys

Skinner wrote:
"Every number was better than 2019 besides his 10 TD number in 19 but he also threw 1.22 less attempts per game"

So when I repeat that -- How am I over stating what Skinner said?



YPA and AY/A were not better. Yards per game were down and his conventional Passer Rating was down.

And you just can't casually say TDs were down without acknowledging that impact - TD/INT differential and overall points. It's a massive drop in production.



And it's important to remember the 2019 level of production was poor to begin with.

For emphasis: Jones had a poor rookie season.


So a rookie has issues as a rookie and then makes improvements as a sophomore even under difficult circumstances and this is dismissed out of hand. Boy it sucks to be you.
gidie  
Go Terps : 2/24/2021 10:19 pm : link
Actually, a rookie had a poor rookie season and then followed it up with an even worse performance his second year. What sucks is having to read people like you make shit up because you are unwilling to accept the possibility that the Giants aren't super awesome.

Jones has sucked the last two years. Completely sucked. That isn't up for debate. You want to believe he'll be great, that's a different matter. But two years in he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and he'll be that until something about his game changes radically.
...  
christian : 2/24/2021 10:51 pm : link
I’ve looked through all the stats again, I’m still trying to piece together what Jones did that was better. The Giants scored less, and per start he threw fewer TDs, fewer yards, and fewer first downs.

Jones is pretty good at two things — running the football and throwing over 20 yards. That’s where these amateur analysts should focus and not try and over reach.

RE: gidie  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/24/2021 11:48 pm : link
In comment 15160974 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Actually, a rookie had a poor rookie season and then followed it up with an even worse performance his second year. What sucks is having to read people like you make shit up because you are unwilling to accept the possibility that the Giants aren't super awesome.

Jones has sucked the last two years. Completely sucked. That isn't up for debate. You want to believe he'll be great, that's a different matter. But two years in he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and he'll be that until something about his game changes radically.


Hey -- that's what I say about reading your stuff -- you're stealing my lines now too -- lol

I totally disagree with you. Skinner see's improvement. I listen and watch, and it passes the eye test. Despite what you keep insisting above it passes the stat test too -- you are intentionally ignoring the stats that you posted, and you are misrepresenting them. Skinners film review shows positive aspects of his game. You probably aren't even watching any of it 'cause it's not on your point. Just keep putting Jones down no matter what. No rinsing. Repeat over and over that everything is wrong. You don't know what you are talking about

Guess what. when it comes to long pass percentage -- Jones is near the top of the league -- 2 percentage points from the top guy.

Repeat after me -- Jones improved on his turnovers this year. He improved his completion percentage this year. He has one of the highest long pass conversion rates in the league this year. His QBR went up this year. He did this without having any skill players, more sacks, and less passes -- there is reason to hope.
RE: RE: gidie  
fireitup77 : 2/25/2021 12:44 am : link
In comment 15161019 gidiefor said:
Quote:
In comment 15160974 Go Terps said:


Quote:


Actually, a rookie had a poor rookie season and then followed it up with an even worse performance his second year. What sucks is having to read people like you make shit up because you are unwilling to accept the possibility that the Giants aren't super awesome.

Jones has sucked the last two years. Completely sucked. That isn't up for debate. You want to believe he'll be great, that's a different matter. But two years in he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and he'll be that until something about his game changes radically.



Hey -- that's what I say about reading your stuff -- you're stealing my lines now too -- lol

I totally disagree with you. Skinner see's improvement. I listen and watch, and it passes the eye test. Despite what you keep insisting above it passes the stat test too -- you are intentionally ignoring the stats that you posted, and you are misrepresenting them. Skinners film review shows positive aspects of his game. You probably aren't even watching any of it 'cause it's not on your point. Just keep putting Jones down no matter what. No rinsing. Repeat over and over that everything is wrong. You don't know what you are talking about

Guess what. when it comes to long pass percentage -- Jones is near the top of the league -- 2 percentage points from the top guy.

Repeat after me -- Jones improved on his turnovers this year. He improved his completion percentage this year. He has one of the highest long pass conversion rates in the league this year. His QBR went up this year. He did this without having any skill players, more sacks, and less passes -- there is reason to hope.



Save your breath gidie. Terps and his crew will continue their stick until either Jones wins or her doesn't. If he wins, they will disappear until he stops winning. Just like BW did with Eli. Ignore them.
RE: RE: RE: gidie  
christian : 2/25/2021 9:07 am : link
In comment 15161032 fireitup77 said:
Quote:
Save your breath gidie. Terps and his crew will continue their stick until either Jones wins or her doesn't. If he wins, they will disappear until he stops winning. Just like BW did with Eli. Ignore them.


Posters like Terps and I will be very happy if Jones turns the corner and becomes a good quarterback.

I get fans who have faith Jones will turn it around, and more so I get fans who want it. But it’s hard to take a debate really seriously when someone claims he improved in every stat — and references a tweet that 1) got the numbers of TDs he threw last year wrong 2) ignores he threw fewer TDs, first downs, and yards per game. Those are the basic stats. Forget about the other metrics where he was also flat or down.

The Giants offense was terrible. Gettleman has done a horrible job on that side of the ball. No one is denying it. Whether that’s the main reason or a lesser reason why Jones sucks is certainly up for debate.
You really have to be careful with touting that deep pass percentage  
Ten Ton Hammer : 2/25/2021 9:12 am : link
If you only generally try to throw deep once or twice per game and complete 50%, then to say he's a great deep passer is a lot of assumption.

It doesn't mean you can just turn him loose and bomb it deep like Eli used to and expect he'll lead the league in completing them. The quarterbacks who complete a good percentage of deep shots are the best QBs in the game because they do it on a larger volume of throws.

It's easier to have a higher percentage when you pick your spots conservatively and carefully.
I really love the qualifying remark that he threw 1.22 less passes  
Jimmy Googs : 2/25/2021 9:20 am : link
per game in 2020.

Think about it...if those extra passes were all touchdowns then Jones would have doubled his actual 2020 output of 11 touchdown.

Pretty meaningful...
RE: You really have to be careful with touting that deep pass percentage  
rsjem1979 : 2/25/2021 9:36 am : link
In comment 15161106 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
If you only generally try to throw deep once or twice per game and complete 50%, then to say he's a great deep passer is a lot of assumption.

It doesn't mean you can just turn him loose and bomb it deep like Eli used to and expect he'll lead the league in completing them. The quarterbacks who complete a good percentage of deep shots are the best QBs in the game because they do it on a larger volume of throws.

It's easier to have a higher percentage when you pick your spots conservatively and carefully.


Correct, and as evidence (per Pro Football Reference) I present Daniel Jones' 7.1 average intended air yards per attempt - which was good for 27th in the league. Combined with an overall on target percentage of 75.2 (27th) it suggests that Jones is neither an aggressive nor accurate passer in a general sense.
RE: RE: This should really...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 2/25/2021 9:56 am : link
In comment 15160856 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 15160386 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


Why on every thread about Jones do certain posters feel the need to come in and post negative takes? Why do they have to refute what Skinner says by linking to a pro-football-reference page?



I'm not sure if gidiefor misspoke -- but he definitely made a confusing observation. He seemed to make a blanket claim about Jones that exceeded the observation Skinner made, and the accuracy of that claim got questioned.

You fact check the hell out of people. Should go both ways, regardless if it's a positive or negative observation, no?


This is really disingenuous and hypocritical. gidie retweeted something Bobby Skinner posted. I didn't know it was incumbent on me to delve into Bobby Skinner's post. I have said nothing on this thread to confirm or refute what gidie said.

You also fact check the hell out of posters you disagree with. You do the same thing.

You have a current thread talking about the salary cap where you actually call people "cap deniers" who don't buy into the premise and yet on that thread, there's a horseshit post by Go Terps saying that teams don't build through FA. Why don't you ever "fact check" his posts? Why didn't you "fact check" the posts by the analytics guys when they posted outright falsehoods? Why don't you challenge known dupes who agree with you for their legitimacy?

It does go both ways, and you are as guilty as what you are questioning for others. But that's par for the course.
Jones comp  
giants#1 : 2/25/2021 10:05 am : link
Improvements in bold

Record was better
Comp% was better (marginally)
TD% was worse
INT% was better
Yards/Attempt equal (Adjusted Y/A is redundant since it combines comp%, Y/A, TD%, and INT%)
QBR better
Sack% worse
Rushing Y/A better
Fumbles better

Also of note is that yards after catch were down by a full yard in 2020. It's debatable how much of YAC is due to ball placement vs the receivers ability, but the absence of Barkley certainly didn't help here and simply matching 2019s number would've added ~0.5 yard to his Y/A.

Additionally, Giants receivers dropped 3.8% of his passes in 2019 vs 5.3% in 2020.

Pressure% (hurried/hit/sacked) was roughly equal both seasons so the higher sack% is probably partly a result of improved decision making and not forcing some throw which the lower INT% supports).

I think the actual data supports gidiefor (and Skinner) that outside of TDs, he was consistently better (almost) across the board.
it's almost as if  
bigbluehoya : 2/25/2021 10:08 am : link
there's been some bad and some good, and a reasonable mind could be either optimistic or pessimistic in its outlook on Daniel Jones.

Big if true.
FMIC  
Go Terps : 2/25/2021 10:22 am : link
"You have a current thread talking about the salary cap where you actually call people "cap deniers" who don't buy into the premise and yet on that thread, there's a horseshit post by Go Terps saying that teams don't build through FA."

Where did I say this?
RE: FMIC  
Jimmy Googs : 2/25/2021 10:39 am : link
In comment 15161194 Go Terps said:
Quote:
"You have a current thread talking about the salary cap where you actually call people "cap deniers" who don't buy into the premise and yet on that thread, there's a horseshit post by Go Terps saying that teams don't build through FA."

Where did I say this?


Don't think you did. Djm just made a poor interpretation of one of your posts and suggested it himself.

And then fmic just used it in true trolling fashion to try and help himself out here. He's just having a tough day...
Just another post by FMIC that needs fact checking  
Go Terps : 2/25/2021 10:48 am : link
.
I think most of the points on Jones are fair  
UConn4523 : 2/25/2021 10:57 am : link
the massive wildcard really is this roster though. I can't just erase from my mind how bad the line was the first half of the year, the drops and overall absence from the WR's, and no Barkley. None of those are on Jones, all of them make him better if upgraded.

That doesn't excuse what he isn't good at, just trying to put in context that the 2019-2020 stats kinda don't mean much. I think its a good sign that the trajectory on his turnovers improve dramatically. 16 turnovers in 14 games vs 23 in 13 games - that .62 fewer per game - 10 less over a full 16 games. That's massive. If that sticks I think we are in pretty good shape in 2021, assuming that we upgrade at WR and Barkley is close to 100%.
RE: RE: FMIC  
FatMan in Charlotte : 2/25/2021 11:02 am : link
In comment 15161227 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
In comment 15161194 Go Terps said:


Quote:


"You have a current thread talking about the salary cap where you actually call people "cap deniers" who don't buy into the premise and yet on that thread, there's a horseshit post by Go Terps saying that teams don't build through FA."

Where did I say this?



Don't think you did. Djm just made a poor interpretation of one of your posts and suggested it himself.

And then fmic just used it in true trolling fashion to try and help himself out here. He's just having a tough day...


LOL. I'm having a tough day? I think I've made a total of 5 posts, but always glad to be evaluated by an outed dupe.

You're having a bad year, no?
RE: I think most of the points on Jones are fair  
chick310 : 2/25/2021 11:10 am : link
In comment 15161262 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
the massive wildcard really is this roster though. I can't just erase from my mind how bad the line was the first half of the year, the drops and overall absence from the WR's, and no Barkley. None of those are on Jones, all of them make him better if upgraded.

That doesn't excuse what he isn't good at, just trying to put in context that the 2019-2020 stats kinda don't mean much. I think its a good sign that the trajectory on his turnovers improve dramatically. 16 turnovers in 14 games vs 23 in 13 games - that .62 fewer per game - 10 less over a full 16 games. That's massive. If that sticks I think we are in pretty good shape in 2021, assuming that we upgrade at WR and Barkley is close to 100%.


Would suggest Jones needs to show a higher level of productivity while also keeping the turnovers to a reasonable level. The offense cannot be kept in some type of slow gear because they are so overly concerned with Jones not taking care of the ball.
RE: RE: RE: This should really...  
christian : 2/25/2021 11:17 am : link
In comment 15161143 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
You have a current thread talking about the salary cap where you actually call people "cap deniers" who don't buy into the premise and yet on that thread, there's a horseshit post by Go Terps saying that teams don't build through FA. Why don't you ever "fact check" his posts? Why didn't you "fact check" the posts by the analytics guys when they posted outright falsehoods? Why don't you challenge known dupes who agree with you for their legitimacy?

It does go both ways, and you are as guilty as what you are questioning for others. But that's par for the course.


You're too funny Gordo. The cap denier comment is a joke between djm and I, that he got and responded to, apologies that was over your head.

I disagree with Terps all of the time. In that thread, I disagree with his premise the Giants shouldn't focus on upgrading the offense. I've argued with Terps from the dawn of time on topics like Beckham, Justin Tuck, culture in the locker room etc.

I've got no skin in the game intervening in your incessant rants with MCL and NGD, because I have no idea about the inner workings of the Carolina Panthers nor anyone's LinkedIn accounts.

As far as posters who aren't who they say they are -- I don't have the crystal ball you seem to have access to -- if you'd like to share that would killer.
RE: Jones comp  
christian : 2/26/2021 5:58 pm : link
In comment 15161152 giants#1 said:
Quote:
Improvements in bold

Record was better
Comp% was better (marginally)
TD% was worse
INT% was better
Yards/Attempt equal (Adjusted Y/A is redundant since it combines comp%, Y/A, TD%, and INT%)
QBR better
Sack% worse
Rushing Y/A better
Fumbles better


But points per start, yards per start, and first downs per start were down.

I think a more fair assessment is some stats were up, some were down.
christian  
Bill2 : 2/27/2021 9:38 am : link
Doesn't Barkley's absence and EE's ineptness and injuries to Tate/Shepard affect the three metrics you chose?

Or are they metrics only Jones can affect?

Done misunderstand where I stand on Jones...I still cant tell whether he can decide/process fast enough or he has been given a collection of guys who cant get separation? or both? or not schemed well enough? of all four?

One thing us outsiders dont consider is that among his options are the two slowest to conclude:

1) On this play what is the risky but might get us downfield?

2) Should I run or throw it away?

3) If throw it away, what is the least likely to be penalized (who look close to a sideline?)

4) Where are my feet/time available and how do I do that?

I think we forget that pocket processing speed doesn't just apply to a choice of the top two options to gain but also to the proper/low risk execution of a compromised/busted play.

In that sense, I cant tell about improvements to his upward gain decision processes/speed - but the metrics show improved decision and processing of the bad risk options side of the curve.

Now...how can a QB simultaneously improve decision making and execution on 50% of the plays and yet we ( me included) conclude we lost plays because he alone is the cause of plays not made?

Please dont misunderstand...im not sold on Jones as good enough for consistent play off winning QB play without "too much" of a team around him.

Im just looking at the full arc of metrics and questioning if the data leads to a conclusion of inadequacy on decision and processing speed.

(And my eyeball view seems to feed into a guy who is too often hesitating I just cant hang that on Jones yet because the data shows better processing on the down slope situations). And we all realize he is not ever going to be in the elite creative zone of a Rodgers/Mahomes/Wilson when plays go sideways. Nor force some balls in at great velocity at an Elway/Farve level of capability.

Fortunately there are more contributions a full QB makes to a team than spectacular rescue plays.

What I dont know is can we build a playoff winning team without a super team around him? And I point out, overpaying a great QB produces a compromised team as well if every draft does not produce better than NFL average luck per draftee and results

make some sense to consider?

...  
christian : 2/27/2021 9:55 am : link
Bill -- I'm squarely on the fence with Jones. Two things I've always believed

1) he's got the requisite skills to be a good, not great QB
2) it's almost always the coaching and system

Now too many red flags for me to believe he's a guy who will overcome on his own (he's not a Barkley, OBJ, Barber) on a shitty team.

That's why I say mixed bag. He's got two plus skills, straight line speed, deep ball accuracy. A game planner can work with that.

I'm fine with year a 1 & 2 QB being a passenger. By year 3 he's got to be a pilot.

Stack up all the wrongs and rights with the team, he's got to pull up the wrongs and not be waiting on the rights.
Bill2  
cosmicj : 2/27/2021 9:59 am : link
My position on Jones is that he has talent but that he has a big group of performance deficits. it’s their sheer number that is a problem. Pocket awareness, presnap judgements, in play decision making, field vision, arm strength, ability to avoid fumbles - all are below average. All young QBs have improvement areas, but when you have too many, there’s no way for a young player to overcome them. So I have doubts that even someone with Jones’ character can overcome just so many.

So to tie that in with your comment, you point to incremental improvements in certain areas. I don’t disagree, but he needs to improve more in those and still improve in other areas where he is deficient. It’s a tall order and makes me think Jones is a project and no where near a finished product.
cosmicj  
Bill2 : 2/27/2021 10:48 am : link
Dont disagree with that list cosmicj. We see the same things.

As we did with Eli and Simms and a host of non NYG Qb's who improved on a host of deficits in their first five years. ( including Brees and Brady and Aikman, etc)

Im not listing those guys to advocate that he is the answer. My point is that we are not going to know in just 2021 and with just an over investment in a WR instead of a team.

I point out for those who have already concluded we need a better QB...for him to succeed when hired he needs a pocket/a consistent good running game and several pretty good receiving options...plus good field position and a few turnovers from the opposition and no runaway games by the opposing offense.

So to me for 2021 offseason...team not QB test is the priority no matter what the final judgement on Jones.

I root for the team not sub-outcomes for components.

Just like I know you do.

Hope you and yours are well cosmicj.
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