Hey BBIers! I definitely planned on posting more than once last year…but life got busy. Still have a huge appreciation for this site and everyone who helps make it happen. Thanks for the great resource! As with my first post, *warning* this one is a bit long.
I wanted to post about something I’ve been thinking about a lot this season: the relationship between QB ability and Super Bowl success. Now of course everyone knows that QB is the most important position. However, my brother and I came to a bit of an epiphany this year in the middle of the season. Take a look at the Super Bowl winners since 2000 (sort of an arbitrary cut-off for the “modern NFL”): pro-football-reference.com/super-bowl/
16 of the 22 Super Bowl winners since 2000 were quarterbacked by clear cut Hall of Famers (8 different guys including likely HOFers Mahomes, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, etc.). Not borderline HOF guys, but QBs who are among the best ever and were perpetually in the top 6-10 QBs every year. Of the 6 Super Bowl winners who didn’t have an elite QB, 2 had defenses that are consensus top 10 all-time (2001 Ravens & 2003 Buccs) and, during the Giants’ SB year in 2012, they were quarterbacked by a borderline HOF QB that was having the best season of his career and was a top 5-6 QB that year. The only true outliers are the Giants in 2008, Ravens in 2013, and the Eagles in 2018 (gross).
It appears that, unless you have a QB who is capable of being a perpetual top 6-10 QB in the league, you do not have a real chance to win the SB. Perhaps if you have a top 3 defense you have a small chance to win with a serviceable QB, but the odds are NOT in your favor. Even then, elite defenses are incredibly hard to maintain so you’d probably only have a 1-2 year window to achieve this. If you don’t have a QB with top 6-10 potential or an elite defense, your only chance is hoping to be one of those 2-3 teams every 20 years that makes an historic run (2008 Giants / 2013 Ravens).
In my opinion the following 7 QBs are the only truly elite quarterbacks:
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Deshaun Watson
4. Tom Brady
5. Russell Wilson
6. Josh Allen
7. Lamar Jackson (I still have some questions about Jackson as an elite passer)
There are another 3 guys who I believe are capable of being elite: 1) Kyler Murray, 2) Justin Herbert, & 3) Joe Burrow. Big Ben clearly used to be elite, but he’s on his last legs and is not nearly as good as he used to be. Guys like Ryan and Prescott are probably good enough to pull out a 2012 Eli sort of year once or twice, but their teams just aren’t good enough right now. Yes, you can be competitive and even field a great 11-5/12-4 team with good QBs like Tannehill, Mayfield, etc. when they’re put in ideal situations. But if the goal is to win a Super Bowl, you need a guy good enough to get you through the playoffs. To get through 3+ straight playoff teams with great QBs, good defenses, etc. you need an ELITE QB. Not just a good one. It’s odd to think that over 50% of the league doesn’t actually have a real chance of winning the Super Bowl next year, but that seems to be the case.
I personally believe all of the top 4 QB draft prospects this year have the intangibles and physical tools to be elite. So if you’re one of the 20 or so teams that doesn’t have an elite potential QB, you should be doing everything in your power to grab one of those 4 or make a play at Watson. I believe the Giants are one of those teams. I do not believe that Jones is good enough to win a Super Bowl with. I’m not saying he’s terrible, in fact he has performed better than I expected when we drafted him. But I just don’t think he is good enough to win a Super Bowl. Yes, I’m sure he’d improve with a better o-line and a true #1 receiver and, in that situation, could probably take us to a playoff berth. But even at his ceiling, I don’t think he has top 10 potential even for 1-2 years of his career. I think if the situation was ideal around him, his ceiling is probably a year or two at the Kirk Cousins level of play. That is still not good enough. If I was the Giants GM, I’d be pushing hard for Watson or moving up for one of the QB prospects. I think our 1st and 2nd round picks this year along with Barkley and maybe a 2nd next year would be enough to move up to #3.
Curious to see what you all think.
Lamar was league MVP, but I think he is not elite, but very good with questions on his passing.
Just remember that Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl as did Nick Foles. So given the right circumstances almost any NFL QB can win. Ask Jeff Hostetler ... he was better than those just mentioned.
And I mean truly lead:
Josh Allen
Probably Watson
Dak
Wentz (I know he's technically already anSuper Bowl winner, but we all know the circumstances)
Then there are a bunch of maybes.
In those maybes, there is still some time for guys to grow and potentially elevate themselves to good enough. Jones is in this category, but this is the year he needs to prove it. I will say he has all the requisite traits to do it, but so do a lot of other guys, like Burrow & Herbert.
But all of these guys need to have a good team around them to do it. As great as Russ Wilson is, that team is not good enough as currently constructed to get them there.
Btw, I almost included Stafford in the above group bc I think he has so much talent, but I don't think he has that edge mentally as that ultra-competitor that I think the above names do.
Burrow is next closest, but we meed to see him recover from his injuries, but he has that 'IT' factor Accorsi talked about. And that's my big question with Daniel Jones as well.
Does he have it or not? This is the year he needs to show it.
LOL. Seems you have borderline personality disorder.
It's the most important position in all of team sports. You do what it takes to get the QB that you think will get you there.
I am also uncomfortable of some guys mentioning a Trent Dilfer or a Nick Foles in making any case. Reason being is Dilfer didn't do much if anything to get his team to the dance as I recall the Raven offense barely scored a TD for about a month or so during the season and he just clearly rode the back of an epic defense. Foles played really well in the playoffs but would the Eagles be there if he started game 1 in September...unlikely.
My two cents, which may be all it's worth.
There are QB who manage that game and the defense or a RB win the game.
I don't understand the hate(maybe because he plays for the Cowboys)for Dak on BBI. I consider him a top 5 QB in the NFL.He definitely has the talent to win a SB.
I am also uncomfortable of some guys mentioning a Trent Dilfer or a Nick Foles in making any case. Reason being is Dilfer didn't do much if anything to get his team to the dance as I recall the Raven offense barely scored a TD for about a month or so during the season and he just clearly rode the back of an epic defense. Foles played really well in the playoffs but would the Eagles be there if he started game 1 in September...unlikely.
My two cents, which may be all it's worth.
Since you are talking about me, there are two separate issues the OP brought up, elite and capable of winning a SB.
Allen and Jackson are both capable of winning a SB. Both are borderline elite QBs. Jackson has won a MVP, so he is an elite football player and he is elite in what he does on the field. But his passing can be inconsistent. One minute he makes Aaron Rodgers quality throws and the next totally misfires, absolute head scratchers.
Allen has a great arm that he transformed by improving his accuracy(did adding better receivers help this?)
I used Foles, Dilfer and Hostettler as examples of QB that were not elite (or even at the very good level) who won Super Bowls. Hos was a much better QB than Foles or Dilfer, BTW. Yes Dilfer won because his defense only needed him to not lose the game. Foles did make plays. Hostettler lead the Giants to win along with great defensive game plan.
So it comes down to whether a VG QB is capable of willing his team to a SB win. Matt Ryan did not. Eli Manning did. Mahomes did, Garoppolo did not(not really a VG QB).
I don't understand the hate(maybe because he plays for the Cowboys)for Dak on BBI. I consider him a top 5 QB in the NFL.He definitely has the talent to win a SB.
Reason for not putting him in the top 5:
He plays in a relatively weak division
He is surrounded by top talent
Despite the first two he hasn't won anything
What happens when the OL ages, Zeke starts to decline and he has no pro bowl WR?
He's young and now coming off a bad injury.
Regarding Foles, Dilfer, Hostetler-types, etc - these guys are just noise at the end of the day in coming up with a conclusion. Not that they didn't achieve something and have their moments which contributed to the end goal. But they are clearly not what the sentiment of the OP was about and often only helpful to frame a debate versus truly support it.
that are not in the right system/situation ... who could be a winning SB QB.
Hard Question.
What would Troy Aikmen do behind a shitty OL ... without a HOF RB/WR/TE ...?
The recent conference championships and SB's have had guys in it like Foles, Tannehill, Jimmy G, Bortles, Goff, Cousins and Kaep.
Keep in mind that Mark Sanchez was in back to back Championship games.
Build the right team or build a particularly strong unit and the need for a franchise QB is lessened.