Fair warning, this is a thread about the salary cap and includes assumptions, if you're a salary cap denier watch out.
My best guess at the Giants salary cap space for 2021 is $2,518,861.
Please beat up my assumptions!
Factors included:
- $185,000,000 cap
- $1,500,000 rollover
$186,500,000
Minus
- Top 48 salaires $178,397,139
- YoY comp for 3 picks counting/displacing $5,584,000
$183,981,139
Potential Cuts
- Solder (June 1st)
- Tate
- Core
- Toilolo
- Mayo
Gets you to $25,915,922
Now of course 2021 cap flow isn't the end all when it comes to acquisition. The Giants are nicely positioned in 2022 and 2023, and will be able to sign players to multi year contracts.
What I think this season comes down to is 2 decisions:
- If you tag Williams at 19.3M, you probably have to cur Zeitler to operate, and add anyone signifigant
- If the Giants intend to keep Tomlinson and Williams, you can't have Williams play on the tender and you have to cut Zeitler
Excuse my ignorance please.
They can pay forward several deals.
'22 and '23, the Giants are currently flush....granted...it will get filled up quickly....with Peppers, Barkley, extensions....
They should negotiate hard with Williams and any other outside FA. Zietler needs to take a restructure with a salary cut and maybe add another year or two or be cut outright. If kept, they need be able to save 6 - 8 million of his 12 million salary.
Also trade EE, I don't even care about the return, getting him off the books frees up over 6 million.
Also, it's cold move but cutting Carter frees up another 2 million (but there will likely be an injury settlement but I think that can be pushed to 2021)
These are the types of business decisions that the good teams make.
Also, they should be able to restructure Martinez and Bradbury and free up another 10 - 14 million.
If they make all those moves, they can free up as much as 30 million if necessary. That said, I really don't like pushing current mistakes off into the the future. My take is that the Giants are still not going to be a contender in 2021, so take as many of your lumps as possible this year and save the 2022 and 2023 caps space. Better to be conservative. Translation, even though I brought it up, I don't like the idea of restructuring Bradbury and Martinez. Cutting Zeitler might not be the best option since you will need to find a replacement anyway. The replacement should only cost about 6 million. Think about the contract that Jamon Brown got with Atlanta... That should be the top end of what the Giants pay for RG this year. If they can get Zeitler there, fine, if not, bye.
Zeitler has 12.5 salary and 2.5M in restructure bonus left on his deal. The Giants aren't going to be able to just bonus out some of his salary without new money.
On the open market Zeitler will get 12.5M guaranteed on a deal. He's got some leverage there, if the Giants try and give him an ultimatum.
If you want to move money off the 021 books, you're probably looking at a 2 year extension, with some new money. Something like:
2021: 2.5M legacy bonus, 3.3M bonus, 2.5M salary (all guaranteed)
2022: 3.3M bonus, 7.5M salary (all guaranteed)
2023: 3.3M bonus, 7.5M salary (bonus guaranteed)
Not sure I'd do that for a guy in his 11th, 12th, and 13th season.
And it’s also a portfolio of what is wrong with BBI. There just always has to be one extreme or the other. You’re either a cap “enthusiast” or a cap “denier”.
Right. Likes it’s not possible to realize that there’s a cap while at the same time not freaking out about every penny spent on players. Nope. No middle ground. If someone doesn’t agree with you, they are in denial that a cap exists.
You love the cap and dissecting it. Great. But why does it always have to turn into a slam on there’s don’t get so worked up about it? That’s not saying they aren’t aware of a cap. Perhaps they just believe it’s not as difficult to navigate around certain aspects of the cap as you do? Nah. They’re all in denial.
Thanks George. Seems us one name handles have much in common.
Cheers djm, you're a good man and have a good sense of humor.
I'm not sure Bradberry takes a new deal right now. The Giants have literally no leverage. The Giants would have to come through with some serious new money.
Presumably the reason he and his agent negotiated a 3-year deal is to maneuver him as a UFA when the new TV deal money has hit.
It’s not perfect, but my number is based on the equivalent 1, 2, 3 round picks at the Giants slot from last year. The later picks are unlikely to be in the top 51.
And agree
Zeitler will need about a 2 year extension....at a reduced salary hopefully....or cut. Should be a win/win.
Outside a couple of deals that need to be cut....Giants are in great shape....and getting much better
Bradberry’s 2021 salary is fully guaranteed — he’s going to get that 14M no matter what. The Giants would need to add guarantees that outweigh the reward of him hitting free agency again.
To get his salary down I think they’d have to add 2 years and at least 30M more in guaranteed money.
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I support this thread. May you all crunch and disect many a number in good health.
Cheers djm, you're a good man and have a good sense of humor.
Thanks back at you Christian. Enjoying the thread and looking forward to this offseason. Won’t be dull that’s for sure.
Link - ( New Window )
That's how cap issues begin.
I agree, and I don’t think it’s impossible to extend him and lower his cap number this year. I just think it will require sweetening the pot as well.
If I were him/his agent, I’d be looking to both expedite and increase the guaranteed money. It’ll certainly be interesting to see if Bradberry is willing to play ball. I assume he and his reps are pretty savvy and wanted that short deal to get a 2nd bite at the apple.
Thanks! Looks like I was about 1M off. Add that 1M directly to their cap space. Only their top three picks will be in the top 51, and will push 3 contracts off.
Re-sign Tomlinson at a lower but more reasonable take.
That way they extract value from LW, fix other parts of the team without taking other steps back.
Offense needs players folks...
Cap is skyrocketing
And Debbie Downer has entered the room.
Sometimes you’re a great poster. And sometimes you just can’t help yourself by polluting every fucking thread you can to hammer home a point. Cmon Terps. This is a cap thread.
That is shortsighted. Of course adding $ and talent into a talent-less Offense can solve for some problems. They have to take the gloves off Daniel Jones and see if he can play smart, aggressive football and NOT increase his turnover rate.
Nothing is guaranteed, but I can assure you it isn't going to fix itself by ignoring it...
The defense can be made into a good unit in 2021; the offense probably can't.
I wouldn't rest on our laurels assuming the defense will maintain. Strengthen a strength.
We have no choice because of Jones.
A case can be made that finding out exactly what we have in Jones is more important than winning in 2021.
The defense can be made into a good unit in 2021; the offense probably can't.
I wouldn't rest on our laurels assuming the defense will maintain. Strengthen a strength.
Again its all about choices.
I don't feel the Defense should rest any laurels either but they got the better of the free agent money in 2020 and they improved.
The money this year needs to flow to the Offense as we can't expect a winning season scoring less than 20 points a game NO MATTER how good the defense is.
Draft picks go to where the tiers/evals say they should...
Feel good about area A, spend on area B while area A degrades. Next year, spend on area A while B degrades...
The Giants have a good, not great, defense. If they leave it alone it will probably be a little worse in '21... You're either moving forward or backward - there is no standing still in the NFL. Spend on the defense and you might have a really strong unit.
Conversely, there is no FA or group of FAs that is making this offense good. You could sign both Allen Robinson and Joe Thuney - you haven't solved the fundamental problem. You're going to just be paying a lot of money to score 19-22 PPG.
In today's NFL I'd rather have a strong offense. That's what wins. But I just don't see that as a possibility in 2021. A strong defense is possible, though. So go for that. Sign Tomlinson and Williams. Sign a CB and draft another. It is possible for a great defense to carry a broken offense to the playoffs - the Rams just did that. It's not ideal, but that's the road that's been laid out for us.
Nothing will stay the same. Good luck guessing where dropoffs, injuries and weaknesses will arise. Invest smartly every year and you will minimize the unfavorable variables that can affect the team chances.
It’s not impossible. The Giants added 4 good players to the defense in 2020 — Bradberry, Martinez, Ryan, and Holmes.
If I’m Mara, Gettleman must accomplish similar improvements to the offensive or be fired.
Conversely, there is no FA or group of FAs that is making this offense good. You could sign both Allen Robinson and Joe Thuney - you haven't solved the fundamental problem. You're going to just be paying a lot of money to score 19-22 PPG.
They actually have to raise their scoring average from 17+ppg to at least 26ppg to be in the hunt.
So all of these honeymoons are over in 2021 - Jones has to finally deliver, the Hand of God has to run like's he's really one of the best RBs in the league, our Pro Bowl TE has to actually play like a Pro Bowl TE, Gettleman's offensive line investments need to actually pay dividends, and Gettleman has to kill it in the draft and free agency to add even more to the offense.
2021 is an enormous year. One of the most critical in Giants history, IMV.
Lawrence 5 years 105 mil
Cooper 5 years 100 mil
Martin 6 years 84 mil
Tyron Smith 8 years 98 million
Zeke 6 years 90 million
Colins 5 years 50 million
Jaylon Smith 5 years 64 mil
AND they will find a way to keep Dak. Unreal. Maybe we should hire Dallas' cap guy
Very reasonable position to take, but how much is Tomlinson worth keeping if you already have a replacement for him on the roster, but you don’t really have a replacement for Zeitler?
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But I'm not letting Tomlinson walk to pay Zeitler.
Very reasonable position to take, but how much is Tomlinson worth keeping if you already have a replacement for him on the roster, but you don’t really have a replacement for Zeitler?
Is Zeitler's presence making the line strong though? In two years there's no evidence of that. In fact the opposite is true: the line has been poor. So why can't it be poor with a player that costs a fraction of Zeitler?
Conversely, the interior defensive line was a strength in part due to its depth.
Part of where I'm coming from is that this team has no identity. Nothing to hang its hat on. I think this team needs that in the worst way.
They should negotiate hard with Williams and any other outside FA. Zietler needs to take a restructure with a salary cut and maybe add another year or two or be cut outright. If kept, they need be able to save 6 - 8 million of his 12 million salary.
Also trade EE, I don't even care about the return, getting him off the books frees up over 6 million.
Also, it's cold move but cutting Carter frees up another 2 million (but there will likely be an injury settlement but I think that can be pushed to 2021)
These are the types of business decisions that the good teams make.
Also, they should be able to restructure Martinez and Bradbury and free up another 10 - 14 million.
If they make all those moves, they can free up as much as 30 million if necessary. That said, I really don't like pushing current mistakes off into the the future. My take is that the Giants are still not going to be a contender in 2021, so take as many of your lumps as possible this year and save the 2022 and 2023 caps space. Better to be conservative. Translation, even though I brought it up, I don't like the idea of restructuring Bradbury and Martinez. Cutting Zeitler might not be the best option since you will need to find a replacement anyway. The replacement should only cost about 6 million. Think about the contract that Jamon Brown got with Atlanta... That should be the top end of what the Giants pay for RG this year. If they can get Zeitler there, fine, if not, bye.
Great post. I'm with you EXACTLY regarding EE. Trade him- do what you have to but get him out. Doesn't matter the return.
Also with Zeitler- - I'd lean heavily toward cutting him. Draft a starter in rd 2. You can draft an OT and convert him to guard or an Inside OL. Should be able to get a starter in rd 2.
That is reasonable thought. Tomlinson is the exact type of player you want to sign in FA, which is why I believe he is going to get paid! I predicting 14M/yr avg. Transition tag isn't out of question for me. One point...DT plays what 50 maybe 60% of snaps and Zeitler play 100%. But still i think DT is more important.
I would still take that over Zeitler, however we don't live in a vacuum. Unless they raise the CAP a lot, (which i think they will) there is no room for 14M DT and you need to get rid of Zeitler CAP hit (trade, cut, extend and lower hit this year). And you aren't signing a 20M WR's. This is all assuming LW is resigned.
There are so many teams, that can not meet the CAP as it stands today, the NFL is going to be forced to raise it, the way it is isn't good for the game, owners, or players. I have to believe they will fix this, though it probably won't happened until the 11th hour.
Feel good about area A, spend on area B while area A degrades. Next year, spend on area A while B degrades...
The Giants have a good, not great, defense. If they leave it alone it will probably be a little worse in '21... You're either moving forward or backward - there is no standing still in the NFL. Spend on the defense and you might have a really strong unit.
Conversely, there is no FA or group of FAs that is making this offense good. You could sign both Allen Robinson and Joe Thuney - you haven't solved the fundamental problem. You're going to just be paying a lot of money to score 19-22 PPG.
In today's NFL I'd rather have a strong offense. That's what wins. But I just don't see that as a possibility in 2021. A strong defense is possible, though. So go for that. Sign Tomlinson and Williams. Sign a CB and draft another. It is possible for a great defense to carry a broken offense to the playoffs - the Rams just did that. It's not ideal, but that's the road that's been laid out for us.
oh boy...are you implying that teams don't plug holes in FA? Really?
Tampa plugged a hole in FA by bringing in a VET QB. I'd say that worked no?
The Giants plugged two huge holes back in 2005 with the PLax and McKenzie signings. Again, a huge success.
Should I keep going? Want more recent moves other than Tampa and the QB, which is in and of itself a huge piece of proof that using FA to fix a weakness is in fact viable, but ok, fine, lets keep going:
The Pats added VET talent to the offense prior to 2007 when the gathered up disgruntled WR Randy Moss (and paid him) and traded for Wes Welker. Their offense went from good to great in seconds. Want more? How about when the Browns picked up RB Kareem Hunt and the TE last year. Both moves jolted their offense. Playoffs ensued, first time in decades.
FA can be your friend if you hit on the right players. And yes, you want to improve sore spots and yes, you can improve one side of the ball while fixing the other. It's not a myth. THe Giants have a ton of room and (hopefully) won't rob from the defense to fix the offense. I know in your world they aren't afforded any benefit of the doubt, but you're making shit up again. It sounds cool. It sounds compelling....but it isn't entirely fair. Now, if you told me that the Giants had a chance to add a great player to the D but instead chose to add 2 average players to the offense? I might side with you, but THAT HASN'T FUCKING HAPPENED YET and probably didn't even happen the last 2-3 years.
Maybe wait and see what happens. And maybe look at the history of FA and how teams operate.
The O will get better if not one player is added in my view. In 2021 the O will play more like it did over the last 5-6 weeks of 2020 than it did the first 5-6-7 weeks if you have any faith in continuity and progression from a bunch of 1st and 2nd year players. Not even counting Barkley.
The offense could in fact be 1-2 players away from reaching a respectable level of play. If you can add that player or two, and re-sign Williams and Tomlinson and draft BPA? I don't think that's a short sighted plan at all. The team is poised to maintain the talent it has and ADD to it. That's how you go from bad to good.
If you set expectations based on the idea that everyone who played well last year and every young player is only going to get better, you risk having a blind spot to improving the roster.