receivers was ugly with the exception of Fuller. And he’s always hurt. That list is pretty sobering. Many of the successful receivers were actually taken later in the first (eg. Hopkins, Nicks).
Reading this makes me hopeful they pick up a top WR in FA or a second tier guy like Corey Davis and just go straight BPA in the first few rounds especially. Even if that is on the defensive side of the ball.
Not sure why the under 5' 11'' thing is linked to RD1
The real question is whether 5"11'' and under players can succeed in the NFL. Lots of first rounders fail, but clearly less than players that are drafted in later rounds.
do you spend #11 knowing that? Lockett is a fine player but I'm not sure he duplicates that success away from Wilson and without another player opposite him like Metcalf.
do you spend #11 knowing that? Lockett is a fine player but I'm not sure he duplicates that success away from Wilson and without another player opposite him like Metcalf.
Lockett was a fine player before DK. He had a 10 TD year before Metcalf was drafted.
But in most cases, the average NFL #1 WR does better when there's more than one WR on the field to help him out.
So, while some stuff has changed, it should still give you a barometer to go off of. It doesn't list height though. Link - ( New Window )
That is actually a pretty scary list. I know there are bust at all positions but that seems like a very high rate. Still, most of the greats have been 1st round picks. And to the point of the tread, most of those greats tend to be the bigger alpha WR's. Looking at current players...Hopkins, J Jones, K Allen, Cooper, Thomas (2nd Round), Evans...go back a little more in history and it's AJ Green, D Thomas, Bryant, Nicks, A Johnson, Burress...etc. More alpha's are drafted higher looking for these type of guys, so some over drafting happens. It appears the speed guys, there are less of them, but the hit rate is really bad, maybe that is because people get wowed by the speed an overlook other parts of the game? Also, injuries, look at the list and pick out the speed guys...then think about their injury history.
The take away is that you can't just be big and you can't just be fast...there is more to playing the position to be successful.
do you spend #11 knowing that? Lockett is a fine player but I'm not sure he duplicates that success away from Wilson and without another player opposite him like Metcalf.
Lockett was a fine player before DK. He had a 10 TD year before Metcalf was drafted.
But in most cases, the average NFL #1 WR does better when there's more than one WR on the field to help him out.
I still think a chunk of his production is due to the team. He gets a ton of targets inside the 5 (he's got a bunch of 1 and 2 yard TD's) usually because the OL stinks and they can't run block at the goal line. He does well with those looks, to his credit, but I think his TD's are inflated.
I keep seeing people compare Waddle to T Hill. While I see why, Height Weight Speed. I think there is a way better comp and that is Sammy Watkins. Sammy is bigger, but when I watch them play, that's is what I see.
but he averaged 13 yards per target in 2018 and had his career hi of 16 yard per catch. That's a very strong number. They were looking for him deep that year and connecting deep.
Since DK took over, you can argue Lockett was moved down the totem pole and has become a shot catch guy.
RE: If this is re Waddle I dont think the height really matters
when it comes to WRs. Personally I don't care. As long as they can get separation, that's the main thing. It's not all 50/50 balls and contested catches. Get open and leave the defender behind you.
RE: RE: If this is re Waddle I dont think the height really matters
but he averaged 13 yards per target in 2018 and had his career hi of 16 yard per catch. That's a very strong number. They were looking for him deep that year and connecting deep.
Since DK took over, you can argue Lockett was moved down the totem pole and has become a shot catch guy.
2018 seems like an outlier. I think its fair to say he's in the middle somewhere - likely an 80/1000/8 WR in your average team. I'd take that for sure but at #11? Not so sure.
I think Waddle plays like a much stronger player. Smith is 2-3” taller and objectively that is better, but he weighs 8lbs less and I think is less explosive. Time will tell but I think waddle is the more impactful of the two. Now Chase is my preferred overall but no one has him dropping to #11.
I think Waddle plays like a much stronger player. Smith is 2-3” taller and objectively that is better, but he weighs 8lbs less and I think is less explosive. Time will tell but I think waddle is the more impactful of the two. Now Chase is my preferred overall but no one has him dropping to #11.
Those three kind of represent the 3 Categories, traits or style, whatever you want to call it, that you can place WR's in...Waddle = Speed, Smith = Route Running, Chase = Alpha, include Bateman and you have the fourth CAT contested catches. The trick will be determining which ones have more then one trait.
One negative trait is the diva. Do any of these guys have that?
In comment 15162111 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:
Quote:
The real question is whether 5"11'' and under players can succeed in the NFL. Lots of first rounders fail, but clearly less than players that are drafted in later rounds.
Maybe the thought was teams were overdrafting short WRs trying to find the next Tyreke Hill?
do you spend #11 knowing that? Lockett is a fine player but I'm not sure he duplicates that success away from Wilson and without another player opposite him like Metcalf.
No, Lockett's a nice WR but I'd want a higher ceiling than that for a #11 pick.
receivers was ugly with the exception of Fuller. And he’s always hurt. That list is pretty sobering. Many of the successful receivers were actually taken later in the first (eg. Hopkins, Nicks).
Reading this makes me hopeful they pick up a top WR in FA or a second tier guy like Corey Davis and just go straight BPA in the first few rounds especially. Even if that is on the defensive side of the ball.
Last years first round, which is supposedly closer in talent to this years, should give you more hope:
Lockett isn’t as fast as Waddle. Lockett wasn’t the same playmaker in college. Waddle is Ruggs fast with Jeudy’s lateral movement, that’s special.
A better comp for him is Desean Jackson. If you don’t think Desean Jackson was worth the #11 pick, idk what to tell ya.
But the reason Waddle is a top 10 talent is not because of his speed, he has legit talent. To support my point take a look at the 2018 SEC championship game. Waddle was by far the best athlete on the field, as a freshman, Mecole Hardman has similar speed ( both ran 100m in the 10.6 range) and had 1 catch for 10 yards, dropped two passes, as a junior!!
As a freshman, Waddle outplayed Ruggs, Devonta Smith, and Jeudy in essentially a playoff game. He had 4 catches for 117 yards and a TD. Hardman couldn’t even outplay Riley Ridley... same measurables, different level talent.
I say this because it seems as if you’re trying to pigeonhole all receivers under 5’11 into one group. My argument is that there were 3 receivers in that game that would all be a step or two away from each other in a race. Only 1 was dominant. 2018 SEC Championship - ( New Window )
RE: Keep in mind Jeudy went to a terrible situation
I don't know about Ruggs. I think he was drafted on speed-only.
Ruggs is the Andrew Thomas of WRs. Top drafted, flashed some potential but after 1 year, looking like some others *might* be better picks.
Jeudy still put up 50+ rec and 850+ yds. That's a great rookie season. Just looks poor in comparison to Jefferson, but he was a top 3-5 WR in the league last season.
RE: If this is re Waddle I dont think the height really matters
the kid is 5'10". Odell was 5'11". Does that 1" really mean that much? Just watch the kid play, he is special. Think Tyler Lockett in SEA.
He is also a special returner and adds value there.
There is risk with any player, how can a 4.6 WR get open? How can 32" arms work?
I think what I see on the field will translate. Is he Tyreek Hill? Is he Lockett? I think I see that more than someone like Tyvon Austin.
Someone like Daniel Jones, I mean the kid is accurate deep. I just see this as a great fit.
Perfectly articulated. Thank you. This is how I feel exactly and I’ve been hammering home waddle or slater. Waddles ankle to me is less of a concern considering he did play in the championship game and didn’t need to prove anything. The fact that he played told me that there was no long term risk.
I will say this, I feel like there have been a lot of underwhelming WRs in the first regardless of height.
Link - ( New Window )
He is also a special returner and adds value there.
There is risk with any player, how can a 4.6 WR get open? How can 32" arms work?
I think what I see on the field will translate. Is he Tyreek Hill? Is he Lockett? I think I see that more than someone like Tyvon Austin.
Someone like Daniel Jones, I mean the kid is accurate deep. I just see this as a great fit.
Reading this makes me hopeful they pick up a top WR in FA or a second tier guy like Corey Davis and just go straight BPA in the first few rounds especially. Even if that is on the defensive side of the ball.
Lockett was a fine player before DK. He had a 10 TD year before Metcalf was drafted.
But in most cases, the average NFL #1 WR does better when there's more than one WR on the field to help him out.
His first 3 years were just ok.
Why not. How many "I don't understand the cap, please help" posts are there at this time of year?
Peter with the far more relevant viewpoint I would think.
Superspy - let us know when you are done with your own homework here please.
That is actually a pretty scary list. I know there are bust at all positions but that seems like a very high rate. Still, most of the greats have been 1st round picks. And to the point of the tread, most of those greats tend to be the bigger alpha WR's. Looking at current players...Hopkins, J Jones, K Allen, Cooper, Thomas (2nd Round), Evans...go back a little more in history and it's AJ Green, D Thomas, Bryant, Nicks, A Johnson, Burress...etc. More alpha's are drafted higher looking for these type of guys, so some over drafting happens. It appears the speed guys, there are less of them, but the hit rate is really bad, maybe that is because people get wowed by the speed an overlook other parts of the game? Also, injuries, look at the list and pick out the speed guys...then think about their injury history.
The take away is that you can't just be big and you can't just be fast...there is more to playing the position to be successful.
Quote:
do you spend #11 knowing that? Lockett is a fine player but I'm not sure he duplicates that success away from Wilson and without another player opposite him like Metcalf.
Lockett was a fine player before DK. He had a 10 TD year before Metcalf was drafted.
But in most cases, the average NFL #1 WR does better when there's more than one WR on the field to help him out.
I still think a chunk of his production is due to the team. He gets a ton of targets inside the 5 (he's got a bunch of 1 and 2 yard TD's) usually because the OL stinks and they can't run block at the goal line. He does well with those looks, to his credit, but I think his TD's are inflated.
Since DK took over, you can argue Lockett was moved down the totem pole and has become a shot catch guy.
Personally I don't think Tyler Lockett would be worth the 11th overall pick.
Quote:
the kid is 5'10". Odell was 5'11". Does that 1" really mean that much? Just watch the kid play, he is special. Think Tyler Lockett in SEA.
Personally I don't think Tyler Lockett would be worth the 11th overall pick.
Think of it this way. Corey Davis is considered to be a big Free Agent possibility for the Giants this spring. Former 5th overall pick.
Since DK took over, you can argue Lockett was moved down the totem pole and has become a shot catch guy.
2018 seems like an outlier. I think its fair to say he's in the middle somewhere - likely an 80/1000/8 WR in your average team. I'd take that for sure but at #11? Not so sure.
Those three kind of represent the 3 Categories, traits or style, whatever you want to call it, that you can place WR's in...Waddle = Speed, Smith = Route Running, Chase = Alpha, include Bateman and you have the fourth CAT contested catches. The trick will be determining which ones have more then one trait.
One negative trait is the diva. Do any of these guys have that?
The Giants really can't afford to miss on this 11th overall pick.
I'd be OK with a "safe pick / solid starter". That might be Parson, Surtain or Farley.
Maybe the thought was teams were overdrafting short WRs trying to find the next Tyreke Hill?
No, Lockett's a nice WR but I'd want a higher ceiling than that for a #11 pick.
Reading this makes me hopeful they pick up a top WR in FA or a second tier guy like Corey Davis and just go straight BPA in the first few rounds especially. Even if that is on the defensive side of the ball.
Last years first round, which is supposedly closer in talent to this years, should give you more hope:
#12 Ruggs - slow start but 26/452/2
#15 Jeudy - 52/856/3
#17 Lamb - 74/935/5
#21 Reagor - 31/396/1
#22 Jefferson - 88/1400/7
#25 Aiyuk - 60/748/5
----------------------------
#33 Higgins - 67/908/6
#34 Pittman Jr - 40/503/1
#42 Shenault Jr - 58/600/5
#46 Hamler - 30/381/3
#49 Claypool - 62/873/9
#57 Jefferson - 19/220/1
#59 Mims - 23/357/0 (injured to start season)
That's some good talent and quick production from the first 2 rounds.
I don't know about Ruggs. I think he was drafted on speed-only.
A better comp for him is Desean Jackson. If you don’t think Desean Jackson was worth the #11 pick, idk what to tell ya.
But the reason Waddle is a top 10 talent is not because of his speed, he has legit talent. To support my point take a look at the 2018 SEC championship game. Waddle was by far the best athlete on the field, as a freshman, Mecole Hardman has similar speed ( both ran 100m in the 10.6 range) and had 1 catch for 10 yards, dropped two passes, as a junior!!
As a freshman, Waddle outplayed Ruggs, Devonta Smith, and Jeudy in essentially a playoff game. He had 4 catches for 117 yards and a TD. Hardman couldn’t even outplay Riley Ridley... same measurables, different level talent.
I say this because it seems as if you’re trying to pigeonhole all receivers under 5’11 into one group. My argument is that there were 3 receivers in that game that would all be a step or two away from each other in a race. Only 1 was dominant.
2018 SEC Championship - ( New Window )
I don't know about Ruggs. I think he was drafted on speed-only.
Ruggs is the Andrew Thomas of WRs. Top drafted, flashed some potential but after 1 year, looking like some others *might* be better picks.
Jeudy still put up 50+ rec and 850+ yds. That's a great rookie season. Just looks poor in comparison to Jefferson, but he was a top 3-5 WR in the league last season.
He is also a special returner and adds value there.
There is risk with any player, how can a 4.6 WR get open? How can 32" arms work?
I think what I see on the field will translate. Is he Tyreek Hill? Is he Lockett? I think I see that more than someone like Tyvon Austin.
Someone like Daniel Jones, I mean the kid is accurate deep. I just see this as a great fit.
Perfectly articulated. Thank you. This is how I feel exactly and I’ve been hammering home waddle or slater. Waddles ankle to me is less of a concern considering he did play in the championship game and didn’t need to prove anything. The fact that he played told me that there was no long term risk.