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NFT: Mets chat

SuperRonJohnson : 2/28/2021 9:46 am
I don't have anything newsworthy to share. But we have not had an active thread for a few days. So anyone got anything to talk Mets?
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RE: Gimenez  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 9:56 am : link
In comment 15165162 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
just crushed a HR


I'm really excited about Lindor, but also really disappointed to lose Gimenez. Lindor - Gimenez up the middle would have been quite dynamic. I'd have swapped Gimenez out for Mauricio if I could have.
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 9:57 am : link
In comment 15164916 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Tim Britton
@TimBritton
·
1m
James McCann cuts down the first attempted basestealer of the season. That's another point of emphasis for the Mets this spring.


I know the advanced stats say throwing out runners isn't that important in the grand scheme but man will it be nice to have a catcher that excels at controlling the running game. Haven't had that in a real long time.
I liked  
pjcas18 : 3/3/2021 9:59 am : link
Gimenez, but I will not cringe when seeing updates about his success.

He was the center piece in a trade for Lindor. A top 5 SS in the game.

If Lindor isn't re-signed it will be bad, but I love that Gimenez was able to be used this way, to IMO make the Mets a better team.

It's exactly the opposite of Kelenic who just to spite Mets fans seems like he's on track to be Mike Trout 2.0.

and I cringe every Kelenic highlight or update I get.

With Gimenez I do not and will not.
RE: I liked  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 10:03 am : link
In comment 15165631 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Gimenez, but I will not cringe when seeing updates about his success.

He was the center piece in a trade for Lindor. A top 5 SS in the game.

If Lindor isn't re-signed it will be bad, but I love that Gimenez was able to be used this way, to IMO make the Mets a better team.

It's exactly the opposite of Kelenic who just to spite Mets fans seems like he's on track to be Mike Trout 2.0.

and I cringe every Kelenic highlight or update I get.

With Gimenez I do not and will not.


I won't cringe at Gimenez' success at all, he seems like a great kid and I think he's going to be a really good player, just wish we could have found a way to keep him here (like by subbing Mauricio, which i'm not sure would be a consensus opinion among all even after Gimenez' debut last year).

So I'd have preferred to have added Lindor by trading a lower level prospect without any offsetting loss to the big league roster. I'm guessing Gimenez was their Verdugo though.
.  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 10:17 am : link
Cleveland  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 10:20 am : link
wasn't taking Mauricio over Gimenez. They prioritized getting the main piece that was closer to the bigs. It's the reason the Mets package won out over Toronto. Toronto is going to be scary soon. Their minor league system has an INSANE amount of very young, but very talented kids. If I'm betting on a team to be the toast of the AL East for the next "decade" it's Toronto. Probably not right away (though they should be good) but soon. Obviously, never bet against the Yankees or Rays.
RE: Nimmo is a good player but he's not on Conforto's level  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 10:25 am : link
In comment 15165624 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
if Conforto did what he did last year over a full season he's an MVP candidate. Nimmo isn't that and I don't think he'll ever be that.

And he's been a lot more injury prone (Nimmo has only played more than 70 games in a season once, Conforto played 150+ each year prior to last year's short season, and 109 apiece in the 2 years prior to that). That's why Conforto has been worth 16 wins above replacement for his career and why Nimmo has only been worth 8.6 - he's only been able to stay on the field about half the amount of time Conforto has.

Half the track record
+ 1 extra season until free agency
= a lot less leverage in a negotiation


Huge Conforto fan but prorating what he did over a full-season is likely going to leave you disappointed. His .412 BABIP alone tells you there is some level of regression coming. Nothing in his other numbers suggests he had a big "breakout". ISO was actually down, BB rate down, K rate up. Exit velocity was mediocre, as was his HH. Again, I'm a huge Conforto guy but he's far more likely to be a 4ish fWAR player (which Nimmo has done before) than some "MVP" candidate.
Conforto  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 10:28 am : link
42nd percentile in exit velocity
38th in HH%
73rd in barrel %


Dom (for comparison's sake)
66th in exit velocity
83rd in HH%
86th in barrel %
Just  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 10:30 am : link
to be clear, I'm 100% for extending Conforto and I'd have no issue giving him Springer money. But he's more likely than not a very good CO and not a franchise player "MVP" type.
Yowzas  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 10:34 am : link
andrew mccutchen
@TheCUTCH22
·
14h
Hunter Greene’s first 3 pitches...
101
102
103
Sheesh
RE: Just  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 11:14 am : link
In comment 15165669 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
to be clear, I'm 100% for extending Conforto and I'd have no issue giving him Springer money. But he's more likely than not a very good CO and not a franchise player "MVP" type.


These are the key questions determining the extension because tbh a very good corner OF probably isn't worth Springer money (a very good CF). So if you are giving Conforto Springer money to some degree you are believing he's got upside a little better than his track record as he's entering what could be his true prime years.

I agree with your other post there's a lot of risk in projecting a full year of Conforto like last year if you are talking fwar/rc. His BABIP was unsustainable. It was 100 points over his career average. So it's unlikely he hits .322 going forward (60 points above career average). That 60 points obviously correspondingly pushes his OBP and SLG each higher than their career averages as well. Being on base more led to him scoring runs at a higher rate. That's where last year seems an outlier.

But his K/BB rates and his top line power numbers prorate to his typical season:

26 homers (previous 2 seasons average = 30.5 hrs)
90 RBIs (previous 2 seasons average = 87 rbis)

So projecting Conforto's floor going forward seems pretty safe - .250 ba, 10% walk rate, 24% k rate, 25-30 homers, 90ish RBIs.

The question is does he have the capacity to continue improving? I think if there's an area he's capable of improving it's more likely his overall polish as a hitter to raise his BA (as opposed to hitting more homers). And being in a better lineup than before will help too. So it wouldn't shock me if he outhits his career .260 BA over his next few prime years, and scores more runs, though I'd certainly take the under on .322 over a full year.
RE: Cleveland  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 11:18 am : link
In comment 15165653 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
wasn't taking Mauricio over Gimenez. They prioritized getting the main piece that was closer to the bigs. It's the reason the Mets package won out over Toronto. Toronto is going to be scary soon. Their minor league system has an INSANE amount of very young, but very talented kids. If I'm betting on a team to be the toast of the AL East for the next "decade" it's Toronto. Probably not right away (though they should be good) but soon. Obviously, never bet against the Yankees or Rays.


I agree, I think Cleveland was likely Gimenez or bust. Which sort of brings things back to what the real decision of the offseason was in terms of payroll slotting:

Gimenez + Springer
or
Lindor

I think Carrasco was likely the tipping point.
Eric  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 11:28 am : link
gotta keep in mind, Springer in a regular off-season gets significantly more money than he did. Covid economics obviously had a major impact but also teams willing to either spend big in CF or go over the luxury tax. I don't love Trevor Bauer but Gerrit Cole received 324 million the season prior.. he's not THAT much better than Bauer. Rendon is great but he's not 85 million better than Springer etc. In a normal off-season I think Springer gets 6 years closer to 180-185 (about 30 per) and I think Conforto with a 4+ fWAR 2021 gets something less than, but not far less than. I'm predicting Conforto lands in SF.
RE: RE: Cleveland  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 11:29 am : link
In comment 15165722 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15165653 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


wasn't taking Mauricio over Gimenez. They prioritized getting the main piece that was closer to the bigs. It's the reason the Mets package won out over Toronto. Toronto is going to be scary soon. Their minor league system has an INSANE amount of very young, but very talented kids. If I'm betting on a team to be the toast of the AL East for the next "decade" it's Toronto. Probably not right away (though they should be good) but soon. Obviously, never bet against the Yankees or Rays.



I agree, I think Cleveland was likely Gimenez or bust. Which sort of brings things back to what the real decision of the offseason was in terms of payroll slotting:

Gimenez + Springer
or
Lindor

I think Carrasco was likely the tipping point.


Yeah given Rosario's clearly down stock it's pretty clear the Mets had to give up Gimenez to land Lindor. They didn't have another player who was that cheap with that many years of control.
agree Eric  
KDavies : 3/3/2021 11:33 am : link
Carrasco makes that a no brainer. He is a legitimate #2 starter and has a very favorable contract.
AAA  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 11:36 am : link
season delayed. The season will begin 5/5. Fingers crossed that Syndergaard is close to some rehab starts by that time.
Syracuse  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 11:40 am : link
rotation should be some combination of Yamamoto, Lucchesi, Eickoff, Montgomery, Oswalt, Gonzalez, SRF (though it sounds like it's been communicated to him he's viewed as a RP), Kilome
RE: Syracuse  
pjcas18 : 3/3/2021 11:51 am : link
In comment 15165752 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
rotation should be some combination of Yamamoto, Lucchesi, Eickoff, Montgomery, Oswalt, Gonzalez, SRF (though it sounds like it's been communicated to him he's viewed as a RP), Kilome


Szapucki in BING?

Would have liked to see him in Syracuse given the missed year.
RE: RE: Syracuse  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 11:59 am : link
In comment 15165763 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15165752 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


rotation should be some combination of Yamamoto, Lucchesi, Eickoff, Montgomery, Oswalt, Gonzalez, SRF (though it sounds like it's been communicated to him he's viewed as a RP), Kilome



Szapucki in BING?

Would have liked to see him in Syracuse given the missed year.


They have too many SP's for Szapucki to likely be in the Syracuse rotation. He's thrown 40 career innings above a-ball, 4 career innings in AA. Guys like Yamamoto/Eickoff/Montgomery etc aren't going to AA with recent MLB experience, Gonzalez pitched 40.1 innings in Syracuse in 2019, they resigned him despite him being an FA, gotta figure he too is in the Syracuse rotation. Szapucki can't be any higher than 9th or 10th in terms of SP opening day so there isn't any clear reason to have him skip directly to Syracuse


JDG
Carrasco
Stroman
Walker
Peterson
Yamamoto
Lucchesi
Eickhoff
Montgomery
Oswalt
Gonzalez

and that doesn't include Thor who supposedly will be back in June. If Szapucki is making a start for the 2021 Mets he's likely going to have to be really incredible at AA and then earn his way second half.
De La Cruz
Forgot  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 12:01 pm : link
Kilome on that "ranking"
RE: RE: Nimmo is a good player but he's not on Conforto's level  
ZGiants98 : 3/3/2021 12:03 pm : link
In comment 15165662 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15165624 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


if Conforto did what he did last year over a full season he's an MVP candidate. Nimmo isn't that and I don't think he'll ever be that.

And he's been a lot more injury prone (Nimmo has only played more than 70 games in a season once, Conforto played 150+ each year prior to last year's short season, and 109 apiece in the 2 years prior to that). That's why Conforto has been worth 16 wins above replacement for his career and why Nimmo has only been worth 8.6 - he's only been able to stay on the field about half the amount of time Conforto has.

Half the track record
+ 1 extra season until free agency
= a lot less leverage in a negotiation



Huge Conforto fan but prorating what he did over a full-season is likely going to leave you disappointed. His .412 BABIP alone tells you there is some level of regression coming. Nothing in his other numbers suggests he had a big "breakout". ISO was actually down, BB rate down, K rate up. Exit velocity was mediocre, as was his HH. Again, I'm a huge Conforto guy but he's far more likely to be a 4ish fWAR player (which Nimmo has done before) than some "MVP" candidate.


This dead on and I’ll add that Nimmo is the rarer talent too. I love Conforto and want him re-signed badly but a corner OF capable of putting up a wRC+ of 130 with 30 HR pop is infinitely more replaceable than finding a guy that can put up a .400 OBP. We’ll see how the year plays out, but my bet is if both our healthy, Nimmo outWARs Conforto.
Agree with all that DMM  
pjcas18 : 3/3/2021 12:15 pm : link
i just think Szapucki is a unique case.

TOR stuff (before TJS), and he'll be 25 in June, so despite the resume above AA I think with a strong start to the season I think he can pass a bunch of the pitchers ahead of him.

2019 the Mets used 9 starting pitchers. If they have similar health they won't need Szapucki, but who knows.

If the Mets are in contention down the stretch and need a spot starter my hope is they don't just pick the next name on the list, but pick the best guy to help win a game (whether it's Szapucki or not).
.  
pjcas18 : 3/3/2021 12:23 pm : link
Metsmerized
@Metsmerized
·
42s
Jacob deGrom will make his spring debut on Saturday
RE: Agree with all that DMM  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 12:38 pm : link
In comment 15165787 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
i just think Szapucki is a unique case.

TOR stuff (before TJS), and he'll be 25 in June, so despite the resume above AA I think with a strong start to the season I think he can pass a bunch of the pitchers ahead of him.

2019 the Mets used 9 starting pitchers. If they have similar health they won't need Szapucki, but who knows.

If the Mets are in contention down the stretch and need a spot starter my hope is they don't just pick the next name on the list, but pick the best guy to help win a game (whether it's Szapucki or not).


I'm obviously rooting for him. I just don't think they have him skip AA when he can head to Bing, pitch well for 2-3 months and still be in potential position to help them. Down the stretch it's "all hands on deck". In May-July it's likely "boring" options for spot starts and someone outside the organization if they need a "good" SP.
2021  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 12:40 pm : link
is really "now or never" for Szapucki anyway in terms of value. He's taking up a 40 man spot, if he's not a legit MLB RP/SP OPTION by the time the season ends, he's likely DFA'ed. A good MLB arm should be knocking on the door of the bigs at this time next year. If he's not, injuries likely held him back to the point (sadly) he's no longer in the picture. I'm not saying that's going to be the case.
To be honest it’s why I was bummed when they missed out on springer  
bhill410 : 3/3/2021 12:43 pm : link
I really don’t have much issue letting conforto go if that is the trade off. In a lot of ways I feel as though he has been a slight disappointment from what I thought his upside would be in 2015. Now last years numbers were elite, I just don’t know if those are the real conforto numbers verse 275/330 + 25 dingers. That has value but it’s not 200 million value for a corner outfielder.
RE: 2021  
pjcas18 : 3/3/2021 12:49 pm : link
In comment 15165797 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
is really "now or never" for Szapucki anyway in terms of value. He's taking up a 40 man spot, if he's not a legit MLB RP/SP OPTION by the time the season ends, he's likely DFA'ed. A good MLB arm should be knocking on the door of the bigs at this time next year. If he's not, injuries likely held him back to the point (sadly) he's no longer in the picture. I'm not saying that's going to be the case.


Agree, and not necessarily comparing the two, but deGrom made his MLB debut at 26 and with a few more elite years can be a HOFer, so Szapucki, while needs to establish himself this year, can still have a good MLB career.
.  
pjcas18 : 3/3/2021 12:54 pm : link
Metsmerized
@Metsmerized
·
2m
The Mets and Cardinals have pushed back first pitch to 1:20

(because of the governor announcement?)
RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 12:56 pm : link
In comment 15165806 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Metsmerized
@Metsmerized
·
2m
The Mets and Cardinals have pushed back first pitch to 1:20

(because of the governor announcement?)


Rain
RE: RE: .  
pjcas18 : 3/3/2021 12:58 pm : link
In comment 15165807 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15165806 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Metsmerized
@Metsmerized
·
2m
The Mets and Cardinals have pushed back first pitch to 1:20

(because of the governor announcement?)



Rain


makes more sense. lol
yeah it is rain  
KDavies : 3/3/2021 1:15 pm : link
I work in WPB and the skies are not good.
Pillar leadoff triple  
KDavies : 3/3/2021 1:31 pm : link
JDD singles him home
Yowzas  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 1:50 pm : link
CRUSHED
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Yowzas  
KDavies : 3/3/2021 1:58 pm : link
In comment 15165862 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
CRUSHED Link - ( New Window )


Golden age of SS in the majors, plus kids like this coming up. I really like CJ Abrams as well, but he'll be moved off SS with Tatis, obviously.
.  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 2:55 pm : link
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
5m
Mets reliever Jacob Barnes touched 95 mph in his first Grapefruit League appearance today, but he was wild and ineffective, walking two batters, hitting another, and allowing three runs on three hits.

Barnes recorded only two outs before the inning ended due to his pitch count.
Eickoff  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 5:05 pm : link
and Barnes stunk. Barnes did touch 95, Ali Sanchez homered against the Mets
Rojas getting players excuse ideas from BBI apparently  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 5:12 pm : link
Quote:
Ryan Finkelstein @FinkelsteinRyan
4h
Luis Rojas believes that the ballparks Kevin Pillar has played in may have impacted some of his subpar defensive metrics. Says that Citi Field plays more fair and he expects him to be the same guy he's been in the past.

@Metsmerized


Cross our fingers he's right.
Monster  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 5:22 pm : link
HR for Kelenic (oppo). None of the Mets pitchers were impressive today. Luckily, none of them are "keys" to the season or even clearly big leaguers going forward.
Baty  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 5:23 pm : link
had a double
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Monster  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 5:24 pm : link
In comment 15166050 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
HR for Kelenic (oppo). None of the Mets pitchers were impressive today. Luckily, none of them are "keys" to the season or even clearly big leaguers going forward.


Kelenic looks pretty big for a CF. The power opposite field looks like it may not matter where he plays, but hey, at least we have a ton of good COF'ers if that's where he ends up.
If  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 5:31 pm : link
you wanted to make a list of arms in camp who could struggle and not have it be a big deal... this would be close to that


RE: RE: Monster  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 5:33 pm : link
In comment 15166054 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15166050 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


HR for Kelenic (oppo). None of the Mets pitchers were impressive today. Luckily, none of them are "keys" to the season or even clearly big leaguers going forward.



Kelenic looks pretty big for a CF. The power opposite field looks like it may not matter where he plays, but hey, at least we have a ton of good COF'ers if that's where he ends up.


They have 1 CO signed post-2021 season. Brandon Nimmo. They don't have a single "top" CO prospect. Who are the "ton" of good COF'ers? or am I not understanding your post? Was this sarcasm? My apologies if it was.
RE: RE: RE: Monster  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 5:38 pm : link
In comment 15166068 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15166054 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15166050 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


HR for Kelenic (oppo). None of the Mets pitchers were impressive today. Luckily, none of them are "keys" to the season or even clearly big leaguers going forward.



Kelenic looks pretty big for a CF. The power opposite field looks like it may not matter where he plays, but hey, at least we have a ton of good COF'ers if that's where he ends up.



They have 1 CO signed post-2021 season. Brandon Nimmo. They don't have a single "top" CO prospect. Who are the "ton" of good COF'ers? or am I not understanding your post? Was this sarcasm? My apologies if it was.


Meant at the moment for this year - Dom, Conforto, plus Nimmo who is really a COF. I suspect they are going to sign Conforto and have Nimmo for at least the next couple years after this one though (assuming DH goes through in next CBA and Smith goes to first).
.  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 5:42 pm : link
Barnes didn't pitch well but he did touch 95, has a guaranteed deal, had positive buzz from Rojas, and apparently flashed a nice slider against Arenado, so yeah he's not "safe" but he likely is "fine" if he rebounds next appearance. I'm not sure Kilome is especially good. Pretty live arm but close to zero buzz and really the results for his career are meh. Nice to have him (one option left) but not expecting much. McWilliams doesn't look like a true threat to make the team (interesting profile/project), Castro is out of options. Ernst Dove (swell guy but over the top homer) insisted all Spring that Renteria was touching triple digits... 93-94 today
Eric  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 5:44 pm : link
Nimmo is a FA after 2022 so they won't have him for the next couple of years unless they signed him. He's signed through next year, Conforto signed through this year. Obviously, if they re-sign them both they are in good shape. If Conforto walks they aren't in good shape in the OF. The OF market is UGLY
To  
DanMetroMan : 3/3/2021 5:51 pm : link
put it more succinctly the Mets have 2 OF on their 40 man roster that they control after the 2022 season... JD Davis and Khalil Lee. 3 if you include Dom Smith.
RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 3/3/2021 8:03 pm : link
In comment 15166081 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Nimmo is a FA after 2022 so they won't have him for the next couple of years unless they signed him. He's signed through next year, Conforto signed through this year. Obviously, if they re-sign them both they are in good shape. If Conforto walks they aren't in good shape in the OF. The OF market is UGLY


next couple years = 2 years (this year, next year).

they've already said they want to extend and ultimately resign Conforto.

they have Dom and McNeil (and JDD) who have played out there.

Obviously the ideal is Nimmo/Conforto, and there's no reason to think they won't bring back both if they want to. Sandy specifically said the ability to resign Conforto factored into not signing Springer.
JBJ 2/24  
bhill410 : 3/4/2021 9:38 am : link
I would have loved to know what he initially demanded from Mets. Have to think Boras screwed this one up.
RE: JBJ 2/24  
Eric on Li : 3/4/2021 9:49 am : link
In comment 15166596 bhill410 said:
Quote:
I would have loved to know what he initially demanded from Mets. Have to think Boras screwed this one up.


Really like the Brewers offseason so far, Wong and JBJ are up the middle gold gloves and they got both for reasonable prices. And even if JBJ is duplicative of Cain they can still shift him to a corner and all of a sudden they have the best OF defense is baseball by a healthy margin. Or trade him.

The way they are built they basically need Woodruff and Burnes to carry them, and they are giving them a chance to do that with a great defense behind them. They'd be dangerous in a series where those 2 are taking the hill 4x, with a great D behind them, plus Hader, and just enough offense to score some runs with Yelich/Cain/Wong/JBJ. They are 1 hitter short but they could add that at the deadline pretty easily with 1B basically wide open. Actually surprised they didn't even make a lower cost add (like Jose Martinez).
.  
pjcas18 : 3/4/2021 10:58 am : link
Metsmerized
@Metsmerized
·
22s
Mets spring training game No. 4 vs WSH:
8 Nimmo
4 McNeil
DH D. Smith
3 Alonso
2 McCann
5 Villar
6 Guillorme
9 Lee
7 Ferguson
LHP David Peterson (0-0, 0.00)
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