I was reading about combine data and some studies that say for wide receiver the most important data that correlates to success is height and the vertical jump. With height being the most important. Since no combine/pro day data yet I thought I would look at player size data.
I looked at all active wide receivers that were drafted. I drew a line of 6'1" for height and 210 lbs for weight. This gave me four categories.
Big = 6'1"+ and 210+ lbs
Small = & lt; 6'1" and & lt; 210 lbs
Heavy = & lt; 6'1" and 210+ lbs
Light = 6'1"+ and & lt; 210 lbs
To measure success I used their average Approximate Value (AV) as determined by pro-football-reference.com. I use 6.0 as the cutoff for success as a starter level or better.
There are 64 big receivers and 17 had an average AV better than 6.0 for a 27% ratio.
There are 75 small receivers and 16 had an average AV better than 6.0 for a 21% ratio.
There are 8 heavy receivers and 3 had an average AV better than 6.0 for a 38% ratio.
There are 46 light receivers and 7 had an average AV better than 6.0 for a 15% ratio.
The big successful receivers are
Michael Thomas
Julio Jones
D.K. Metcalf
DeAndre Hopkins
Mike Evans
Davante Adams
Amari Cooper
A.J. Green
Larry Fitzgerald
Keenan Allen
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Demaryius Thomas
Chase Claypool
Allen Robinson
Dez Bryant
Alshon Jeffery
Sammy Watkins
The small successful receivers are
Tyreek Hill
Stefon Diggs
Antonio Brown
Brandin Cooks
T.Y. Hilton
Tyler Lockett
Odell Beckham Jr.
Jarvis Landry
Marquise Brown
Robert Woods
DeSean Jackson
Randall Cobb
Emmanuel Sanders
Golden Tate
Mecole Hardman
Diontae Johnson
The heavy successful receivers are
A.J. Brown
D.J. Moore
Terry McLaurin
The light successful receivers are
Justin Jefferson
Calvin Ridley
CeeDee Lamb
Cooper Kupp
Chris Godwin
Corey Davis
Michael Gallup
The Giants three top wide receivers were (including recently released Tate) Shepard and Tate in the small category and Slayton in the light category. Only Tate for his career AV average made the list of successful receivers. Whether you cared for him lately he was a successful receiver.
The only Giants heavy receiver was Dwayne Harris who was on the Giants from 2015-2017 and made the Pro Bowl in 2016.
The only Giant big receivers were Cody Latimer (2018-2019) and Geremy Davis (2015).
The success percentages appear to slightly favor big and heavy receivers. Tall and light appears to be a bad combination.
The article on predicting receiver success on the combine stated that college production was the best indicator of NFL success. Team Market share percent of receiving yards has been used to indicate future success. A threshold of 30% for a season has been used. Since the 2011 draft there were 13 big receivers that have an average AV of over 6.0. Of those thirteen players 10 or 77% had at least one college season of 30% receiving yards team market share. Here are the 13 with their best college team market share percents.
Player College TMS
D.K. Metcalf 16.4
Julio Jones 33.4
Amari Cooper 44.4
Chase Claypool 31.6
Sammy Watkins 33.8
A.J. Green 26.7
Alshon Jeffery 45.5
Mike Evans 30.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster 38.5
Davante Adams 33.5
Michael Thomas 21.6
DeAndre Hopkins 33.6
Allen Robinson 46.1
Using the 2021 wide receiver draft prospects listed on thedraftnetwork.com here is a list of the big wide receivers
Rashod Bateman
Nico Collins
Seth Williams
Josh Imatorbhebhe
Sage Surratt
Simi Fehoko
Trevon Grimes
Jonathan Adams Jr.
Jhamon Ausbon
Damon Hazelton
Racey McMath
Ben Skowronek
Josh Palmer
T.J. Vasher
Warren Jackson
Javon McKinley
Tarik Black
Brennan Eagles
Of these only the following had a season where their team market share of receiving yards was 30%. Those are
Rashod Bateman
Warren Jackson
The heavy draft prospects are
Amari Rodgers
Marlon Williams
Of the heavy prospects only Marlon Williams had a team market share of 30%.
Most here know about Rashod Bateman and many like him for a pick. So I won't go into him. I like him also. I prefer a trade down to pick him and would not spend an 11 pick on him. My ideal draft would be to get Kyle Pitts at 11 and then take a flyer on Jackson in the sixth.
Warren Jackson made first down on 17 of his 19 third down receptions. He made a touchdown or first down on 79% of his receptions. In 2019 Warren earned a 90.1 PFF grade which was third best among returning wide receivers in the nation. Jackson hauled in an impressive 91% of his catchable tight coverage targets. He was tied for the second-highest receiving grade in tight coverage in 2019. Jackson opted out of the 2020 season. Jackson is 6'6" and 215 lbs.
Marlon Williams made 29.1% team market share in 2020. Marlon made PPF’s 2020 All American Third Team. He had the 4th highest passer rating when targeted since 2019. Reports are that he is tough to bring down, wins 50-50 balls, and has great hands. Willaims played majority as a slot receiver and would most likely do so in the NFL. Williams is 6'0" and 222 lbs. Williams would probably not last to the sixth round.
You can do an analysis that includes the size of hands, length of arms, speed, quickness, vertical jump, etc.
Without the other data it is not statistically relevant
For example what is the success rate of small receivers who run under a 4.3 forty or a large receiver who runs above a 4.6 forty
Adding additional data will create a far more meaningful evaluation
Dave Gettleman had drafted Benjamin (2014 first round) and Funchess (2015 second round) as well as signing TE Ed Dickson (6'4, 250) because all three had huge catch radii that could compensate for Newton's inaccuracy.
As it turns out, in 2015 Newton had a lot of success throwing to smaller guys Ted Ginn, Corey Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery because they excelled in creating separation with speed and route running. Newton had a huge year and won MVP.
Benjamin returned in 2016 and led the WRs with 118 targets. Newton's performance fell off a cliff. The thinking is that an imprecise passer like Newton may have an easier time throwing to smaller guys in space than bigger guys in traffic.
I instinctively prefer larger receivers, especially early draft choices for primary receiver. It is good to see some statistics.
His top target by far was Greg Olsen who had nearly double the receptions of the next closest receiver. And Funchess made the most of his opportunities. He only started 5 games, but had 31 catches and 5 TD's.
The interesting stat was that Cam didn't even have 300 completions and the RB's accounted for less than 60 catches.
Dave Gettleman had drafted Benjamin (2014 first round) and Funchess (2015 second round) as well as signing TE Ed Dickson (6'4, 250) because all three had huge catch radii that could compensate for Newton's inaccuracy.
As it turns out, in 2015 Newton had a lot of success throwing to smaller guys Ted Ginn, Corey Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery because they excelled in creating separation with speed and route running. Newton had a huge year and won MVP.
Benjamin returned in 2016 and led the WRs with 118 targets. Newton's performance fell off a cliff. The thinking is that an imprecise passer like Newton may have an easier time throwing to smaller guys in space than bigger guys in traffic.
Newton's best passing season was his rookie season when 4 of his top 5 WRs were bigger targets (Olsen, LaFell, Naanee, Shockey) with Steve Smith the only smaller guy.
And Cotchery is listed at 6'1, 205 lb. Not really sure that counts as "small". Even if you want to categorize as such, ~40% of Newton's yardage was to Olsen/Funchess.
Engram's the rare exception that is good at generating separation and still poor at making plays.
Interesting. And yet that Carolina team threw 23 more TD passes.
Dave Gettleman had drafted Benjamin (2014 first round) and Funchess (2015 second round) as well as signing TE Ed Dickson (6'4, 250) because all three had huge catch radii that could compensate for Newton's inaccuracy.
As it turns out, in 2015 Newton had a lot of success throwing to smaller guys Ted Ginn, Corey Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery because they excelled in creating separation with speed and route running. Newton had a huge year and won MVP.
Benjamin returned in 2016 and led the WRs with 118 targets. Newton's performance fell off a cliff. The thinking is that an imprecise passer like Newton may have an easier time throwing to smaller guys in space than bigger guys in traffic.
Daniel needs someone who can separate and get open in a hurry. DeVonta Smith would be perfect.
Engram's the rare exception that is good at generating separation and still poor at making plays.
And if a WR can do both?
Even in a phone booth, this skinny guy finds room!
Smith Highlights - ( New Window )
I would think you'd probably get something approximating a normal distribution by incorporating a "medium" size into the analysis so that your "large" is really the oversized WRs and your "small" is really the undersized WRs.
I would think you'd probably get something approximating a normal distribution by incorporating a "medium" size into the analysis so that your "large" is really the oversized WRs and your "small" is really the undersized WRs.
Good point. I like your idea about getting a normal distribution and taking the ends. Maybe at some future analysis. No big logic involved in coming up with 6'1". It just seemed like a good cutoff. After your question I searched and found the following 2019 article that put the average height of a wide receiver at just shy of 6'1".
https://www.footballperspective.com/average-height-of-defensive-backs-and-wide-receivers/ - ( New Window )