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I think this will be the year we trade down some

jvm52106 : 3/5/2021 7:51 am
to acquire picks. If we sign LW and sign a WR then I see a trade down to acquire more picks as the best course of action. QB is going to dominate the top half of the draft.

If we can get an 2 and say another 3 or 4 (assuming only a minor move down) then we can backfill the roster much more quickly.

I think FA will be all about getting impact starters- LW, maybe DT and then getting one of the better WR's available. We will also grab a guard if Zeitler is released.

Then the draft will be trade down in rd 1 a bit, acquire additional picks and load up on OL, TE and LB/Edge.
Yeah,  
section125 : 3/5/2021 7:58 am : link
Ah. No it won't.
Would love to see it happen  
UGADawgs7 : 3/5/2021 8:03 am : link
If one of the guys NYG brass wants isn’t there and they know they can get the next guy on there list if it’s the 15 range(Pats if they trade up to grab a QB) and gain a 2nd in the process.
Have things gotten so low with Gettleman & NYG Front Office  
Jimmy Googs : 3/5/2021 8:05 am : link
that they are going to just try The Opposite...



I understand your logic  
BlueManCrew : 3/5/2021 8:09 am : link
But there could be 5 QBs taken before 11. That would drop 2-3 premium players right into our lap. You don’t trade down with that opportunity and the giants never trade down anyway.
who wants to trade up?  
Victor in CT : 3/5/2021 8:24 am : link
takes 2 to tango
RE: I understand your logic  
Big Blue '56 : 3/5/2021 8:24 am : link
In comment 15167374 BlueManCrew said:
Quote:
But there could be 5 QBs taken before 11. That would drop 2-3 premium players right into our lap. You don’t trade down with that opportunity and the giants never trade down anyway.


I tend to agree, plus, DG hasn’t shown any inclination to do so. With Judge here, perhaps that changes.
I don't think you have a strategy to rise or drop...  
BamaBlue : 3/5/2021 8:30 am : link
The draft is a crap shoot and depending upon the availability of your target players, you make a move. So... without knowing who the Giants have on their shopping list, I don't know how you can say that this will be a year we trade down.
This should have been the strategy since 2018  
GiantsRage2007 : 3/5/2021 8:33 am : link
And it still won't happen
If i were GM i'd be looking to trade down every time  
rasbutant : 3/5/2021 8:45 am : link
I would need a prospect to convince me that I have to have them. So without knowing who is on the board you can't have a blanket statement that this is the year to trade down. If Calvin Johnson, sorry I'm mean if Pitts is available you don't pass that up.

But if you have Andrew Thomas, Wirfs, Becton, etc available, and I'd even throw in CeeDee Lamb too. Unless Chase Young falls to you, you try to trade down. That's what i would do anyways.

Not only would they have received draft capital for the trade down, but the Salary for Thomas is 8M avg and the other guys are around 4M avg. Trading out of the top ten makes a lot of sense, unless the player is special.
NE has a good history of trading back ...  
Spider56 : 3/5/2021 8:51 am : link
We’ll see if this rubbed off on JJ and how much influence he has on D day.
BBI feels this way every year  
ZogZerg : 3/5/2021 8:51 am : link
So they can pick more players in their mock drafts. LOL
From your keyboard  
Dnew15 : 3/5/2021 9:33 am : link
to God's ear.

The draft-to a certain extent- is a crap shoot.

Statistically speaking - the more picks you have, the more likely you are to get it right and/or survive if you miss on one.

The good GMs have figured this out.

The NFL is past the idea of trading entire drafts to move up. If you are offered a "bag of donuts, the hot pretzel and the hot dog" to move down a couple of spots, you freakin do it now!!!!

Especially if your plan is to show everyone how smart you are rather than collect guys that can play and create depth.
I think they're going to target  
JonC : 3/5/2021 9:39 am : link
the Bama WRs, and the CBs if the WRs are both gone.

Smith, Waddle, Surtain, Farley, with Parsons in the mix if he's still available. I think they'll get one of them at #11.

If they're somehow all gone, then I think they're looking at Edge.
Trading up is easy. You just offer to overpay. Trading down is hard  
Ivan15 : 3/5/2021 9:42 am : link
Because no trading partner wants to overpay, you are kind of admitting that you don’t trust your scouting department to identify the best players, and you get criticized for missing out on better players than you draft (worse than trading up or staying put)..

The only significant first round trade-down I remember was when the Giants drafted Kiwanuka. He may have been BPA where he was picked (27?) but he was a tweener who never really fit in the Giants 4-3 defense. If he was drafted into this defense, he would be a great pick. Go back to that draft and see who the Giants passed on.
If there is a QB on the board of value  
DavidinBMNY : 3/5/2021 9:44 am : link
Yes I can see this. However, Dallas might look very hard at a QB at 10.
.....  
CoughlinHandsonHips : 3/5/2021 9:53 am : link
Hopefully DG at least turns on his cell phone
RE: .....  
Dnew15 : 3/5/2021 10:04 am : link
In comment 15167466 CoughlinHandsonHips said:
Quote:
Hopefully DG at least turns on his cell phone


Or at least be near his rotary phone :)
Kiwi was..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/5/2021 10:22 am : link
picked 32nd. We traded with Pittsburgh. We missed out on a couple of players, but not a huge star there.

Pittsburgh took Santonio Holmes.

Then the following picks went off:
John McCargo
DeAngelo Williams
Marcedes Lewis
Nick Mangold
Joseph Addai
Kelly Jennings

Williams and Addai were good RB's, but Mangold would have helped with the OL.
Maybe the Patriots......  
Angus : 3/5/2021 10:27 am : link
If a Qb is there they want.
RE: Kiwi was..  
Ivan15 : 3/5/2021 10:37 am : link
In comment 15167482 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
picked 32nd. We traded with Pittsburgh. We missed out on a couple of players, but not a huge star there.

Pittsburgh took Santonio Holmes.

Then the following picks went off:
John McCargo
DeAngelo Williams
Marcedes Lewis
Nick Mangold
Joseph Addai
Kelly Jennings

Williams and Addai were good RB's, but Mangold would have helped with the OL.


Thanks. I guess the Giants didn’t miss much although Mangold would have solved the center problem post-O’Hara. It was kind of a shame Kiwi didn’t fit the 4-3 defense.
Trading down  
stretch234 : 3/5/2021 10:50 am : link
This requires a team and usually a player said team wants, to be able to do it. Just throwing out there trade down is pointless and almost never happens unless a QB is looked at.

Out side of QB, what player are teams going to be giving up assets for to move up to 11. If SF wants to get in the QB game they are moving further up than 11. SD does not need to move to grab an OL. MN needs defense - they can pick whoever is avail. NE is not moving up. Are AZ and Vegas moving up
Uh huh  
Harvest Blend : 3/5/2021 10:59 am : link
.
Trading down strategies  
chick310 : 3/5/2021 11:02 am : link
Obviously the general sentiment is that a team trading down is sacrificing quality for quantity. While you often see that posted here, and not wholly incorrect, that is a very superficial viewpoint.

A general trade down opportunity could make sense if a team starts seeing that a larger volume of players in their draft tiers are still available when their pick is nearing. Meaning that players they evaluated and ranked accordingly are in more of a supply. And as long as that team is very comfortable with their evaluation process, trading down allows them to simply pick up "two players with an overall value greater than the one".

There are pitfalls of course. One unknown risk is that there will be a bit of a "run on the bank" with players on their board after making the deal causing the supply to shrink quickly before their newly acquired picks come due. Another is that a team's board isn't fair and equitable or contains some biases based on certain opinions or immediate roster needs. Not difficult to imagine that plenty of GMs/Teams simply struggle at just letting the draft come to them as well.
RE: RE: Kiwi was..  
Gatorade Dunk : 3/5/2021 11:11 am : link
In comment 15167503 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
In comment 15167482 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


picked 32nd. We traded with Pittsburgh. We missed out on a couple of players, but not a huge star there.

Pittsburgh took Santonio Holmes.

Then the following picks went off:
John McCargo
DeAngelo Williams
Marcedes Lewis
Nick Mangold
Joseph Addai
Kelly Jennings

Williams and Addai were good RB's, but Mangold would have helped with the OL.



Thanks. I guess the Giants didn’t miss much although Mangold would have solved the center problem post-O’Hara. It was kind of a shame Kiwi didn’t fit the 4-3 defense.

Huh? He definitely did fit the 4-3, but as a DE. The issue was that with the Giants' embarrassment of riches (at that time) of pass rushers, getting as much talent on the field at the same time meant playing some guys out of position. So Kiwi was miscast as a SAM prospect, where he was not really a difference-maker.

But he did fit the 4-3, IMO, just not where the Giants primarily deployed him.
Gettlemen has done 8 drafts with zero trade downs  
Rick in Dallas : 3/5/2021 11:38 am : link
Very low odds it happens this year. Unless someone like Miami at number 18 wants to draft a QB to get in front of NE at 15 and give us number 18 and number 46 in the second round.
impossible to just flat out want a trade down  
UConn4523 : 3/5/2021 12:12 pm : link
without an actual idea of how far you'd be willing to go and that compensation.

If better players fall to 11 I want to stay put. Quality over quantity is what I generally subscribe to - so moving down a few slots wouldn't bother me but back into the 20's? No thank you unless the price was huge.
RE: Gettlemen has done 8 drafts with zero trade downs  
Jimmy Googs : 3/5/2021 12:16 pm : link
In comment 15167555 Rick in Dallas said:
Quote:
Very low odds it happens this year. Unless someone like Miami at number 18 wants to draft a QB to get in front of NE at 15 and give us number 18 and number 46 in the second round.


As noted here, trading down probably requires a GM to be a bit more, let's say "agnostic" amongst players in a similar ranked pool.

That isn't Gettleman, at all...
The Long-Coveted 11th Spot...  
Jim in Tampa : 3/5/2021 12:43 pm : link
Where teams have historically over-paid in a trade up to secure the rights to the 4th or 5th best QB in the draft.
Yeah.  
David B. : 3/5/2021 1:09 pm : link
RE: The Long-Coveted 11th Spot...  
Gatorade Dunk : 3/5/2021 2:13 pm : link
In comment 15167610 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
Where teams have historically over-paid in a trade up to secure the rights to the 4th or 5th best QB in the draft.

All kidding aside, there used to be a particular characteristic of the 11th pick that did make it an attractive spot until the recent CBA update: 1st-round picks taken in the top 10 used to receive a 5th year option salary equal to the average of the top 10 salaries at their position. Players taken in picks 11-32 would receive a 5th year option salary equal to the average of the 3rd through 25th highest salaries at their positions.

The new CBA makes no such distinction, instead setting a 5th year option value for each position regardless of draft slot, and the salary increases (and I believe the options vest fully guaranteed automatically along with those increases also) based on playing time thresholds and Pro Bowl seasons.

The 11th pick used to be a sneaky good place to gain a tiny bit of incremental value for your cap management, but not anymore.
Trade ups and downs  
Colin@gbn : 3/5/2021 2:33 pm : link
I certainly wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for the Giants to trade however when I think about there is one possible scenario where they might deal. As I have noted in several other threads, the Giants aren't going into this draft planning to simply take the best available player (they haven't done that in years); they also aren't looking to 'fix holes'. They have made it pretty clear the goal at the 2021 draft is to try and provide Daniel Jones with some weapons. The logical extension of that is that the Giants go into the draft hoping to get one of those top 4 receivers at #11. What happens, though, if they are all off the board at that point. My best guess is that at that point they take one of the two corners and then load up on receivers in Rds 2-4.

One possibility though is they go into the draft saying that if the top 4 guys are gone they'd be happy enough taking a 2nd tier WR like Toney, Terrace Marshall, Rashod Bateman or even an Elijah Moore who is starting to generate some real buzz. And those guys are likely going to be available in the 20s.

At the same time, there is a little buzz starting to grow about Mac Jones actually being top ten worthy, while there are whispers that Justin Fields is slipping. And it is not unreasonable to think that if either or both were still on the board at #11 that teams like Chicago, which is desperate to upgrade at QB, might be very eager to move up. Get you an extra 2nd and maybe another early 3rd day pick. For the Giants it would allow them to get a quality receiver later in the 1st and then get both a corner (like one of the 2 Georgia guys) and an interior OL (say Wyatt Davis, Creed Humphrey or Leatherwood) in the 2nd and still get a couple more WRs in Rds 3-4.

Again flies against the odds and historical precedence but it does feel like a way to maximize the returns on an almost top ten pick in a very good draft year. Just 55 days to go for those that are counting.
RE: Gettlemen has done 8 drafts with zero trade downs  
EricJ : 3/5/2021 4:25 pm : link
In comment 15167555 Rick in Dallas said:
Quote:
Very low odds it happens this year.


Are you implying that he is not interested in trading down simply because he has not done it?

It is easy to trade down when you do not want much in return.
RE: RE: Gettlemen has done 8 drafts with zero trade downs  
Gatorade Dunk : 3/5/2021 5:35 pm : link
In comment 15167807 EricJ said:
Quote:
In comment 15167555 Rick in Dallas said:


Quote:


Very low odds it happens this year.



Are you implying that he is not interested in trading down simply because he has not done it?

It is easy to trade down when you do not want much in return.

I can't speak for Rick's POV, but I know my personal opinion about DG's lack of trades down is that despite all the Giants' talk about using "rows" in ranking players, they do often get tunnelvision about a particular prospect or position of need, which results in them becoming more reluctant to move out of a draft slot once they've locked in on a specific target, even if they have several players remaining in that tier.

In case that sounds too speculative, consider how many times the Giants have mentioned that a player that they took in the 4th round, for example, was a prospect that they almost took with their pick before that? If we're taking them at their word, that - to me, anyway - always makes me question why they didn't trade down at the previous spot? Clearly they had so many players ranked similarly at that point that an entire round was able to go by and still have players remaining in that tier.

Granted, it's always possible that they're just not getting suitable offers, but given how many trades DO happen each year, it just seems so unlikely that the Giants never get viable trade offers that intersect with instances where they have enough prospects at their current scouting row to move to the lower pick and still choose from the same row.
I think the DG's main problem with trading down  
NoGainDayne : 3/5/2021 5:45 pm : link
is trading down (and trading in general) is a skill of it's own that you really need to hone.

You need to set the stage, you need to play parties against each other to get the best transaction. You need to sell a story. It seems like DG expect to get a phone call to blow him away and I'd guess you never just get a phone call that "blows you away" I'd bet behind any great trade down haul there was a tough negotiation with many parties involved leading up to it.

I think DG is a scout first and foremost and prefers to spend his time learning about the players vs. cultivating leverage and opportunity in this way. Part of how you get someone to move on a trade is the perception that you can lose out if you don't move. And unfortunately for him the longer you don't pursue trades like this the harder to get an offer that is really good because no one really believes they will lose out by not striking when the iron is hot. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Teams also don't want to waste their time setting up these scenarios if they don't have much faith that their counterparty will actually act on it...
RE: RE: RE: Gettlemen has done 8 drafts with zero trade downs  
Jimmy Googs : 3/5/2021 6:28 pm : link
In comment 15167858 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:

In case that sounds too speculative, consider how many times the Giants have mentioned that a player that they took in the 4th round, for example, was a prospect that they almost took with their pick before that? If we're taking them at their word, that - to me, anyway - always makes me question why they didn't trade down at the previous spot? Clearly they had so many players ranked similarly at that point that an entire round was able to go by and still have players remaining in that tier.



This is similar point that chick310 was making above on trade down strategies and is a good observation.

I could be mistaken though but I think we heard those types of comments moreso in the Reese regime when he discussed the picks the following day. Do you recall hearing it from DG as well?
RE: I think the DG's main problem with trading down  
Jimmy Googs : 3/5/2021 6:31 pm : link
In comment 15167862 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
is trading down (and trading in general) is a skill of it's own that you really need to hone.

You need to set the stage, you need to play parties against each other to get the best transaction. You need to sell a story. It seems like DG expect to get a phone call to blow him away and I'd guess you never just get a phone call that "blows you away" I'd bet behind any great trade down haul there was a tough negotiation with many parties involved leading up to it.

I think DG is a scout first and foremost and prefers to spend his time learning about the players vs. cultivating leverage and opportunity in this way. Part of how you get someone to move on a trade is the perception that you can lose out if you don't move. And unfortunately for him the longer you don't pursue trades like this the harder to get an offer that is really good because no one really believes they will lose out by not striking when the iron is hot. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Teams also don't want to waste their time setting up these scenarios if they don't have much faith that their counterparty will actually act on it...


Gettleman does indeed do a decent bit of trading involving picks...just not trading down for whatever the reason.

In 8 years DG has traded up just 5 times  
Rick in Dallas : 3/5/2021 7:00 pm : link
Either he asks for way too much during draft day trade discussions or he actually prefers to stay put and make the pick.
I know that last year on 2020 during draft day trade discussions from the number 4 pick I think he stated all trade discussions were touchy freely whatever the hell that means.
All I am saying is DG does not have a history of draft day trades.
RE: In 8 years DG has traded up just 5 times  
Jimmy Googs : 3/5/2021 7:08 pm : link
In comment 15167914 Rick in Dallas said:
Quote:
Either he asks for way too much during draft day trade discussions or he actually prefers to stay put and make the pick.
I know that last year on 2020 during draft day trade discussions from the number 4 pick I think he stated all trade discussions were touchy freely whatever the hell that means.
All I am saying is DG does not have a history of draft day trades.


And for the record, I meant he did some trading involving picks outside of draft day. Examples include picks for Ogletree, picks for Williams, pick for Yiadom, traded Apple, Snacks and Golden for picks.

The touchy feely comment is new to me...when did he say that?
I think it is much easier to trade up  
NoGainDayne : 3/5/2021 7:09 pm : link
because there is always an offer you can make that someone will take. It has nothing to do with how well you can do what I'm suggesting (creating a story with multiple bidders etc.) if you are willing to pony up an asking price that that is worth it for the other team it really doesn't require great negotiating acumen.
I think he said that last year Jimmy  
Rick in Dallas : 3/5/2021 7:12 pm : link
During his discussions about trading down from number 4 or something close to that. My memory is as good as it use to be unfortunately
RE: I think he said that last year Jimmy  
Jimmy Googs : 3/5/2021 7:18 pm : link
In comment 15167922 Rick in Dallas said:
Quote:
During his discussions about trading down from number 4 or something close to that. My memory is as good as it use to be unfortunately


One thing that always stuck with me was that silly statement back in 2018 when he defending not trading back from overall #2 because people were offering a "bag of donuts and a hot pretzel".

Obviously in jest but still a wise-ass thing to say about other GMs that are his peers. I think he realized that after the fact too because he switched his story that he actually got one very reasonable offer.
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