What do you guys prefer? List reasons why. The last day to tag a player is March 9th so if the Giants want to go down that path expect more moves over the next few days.
Here are the options:
1. The Giants and Leonard Williams come to a deal. If it is this option you have to assume it is at least $20 mil per year with a nice chunk guaranteed if he is going to avoid testing FA.
2. The Giants let Williams hit FA because they don't want to tie up around $19 mil in him for 2021 which will handcuff us during FA. However, they'll still be in contact with him and have an offer on the table. If they lose him in FA he would almost definitely receive a 3rd round comp pick and potentially the top comp pick.
3. Franchise tag him (exclusive). This means he will be paid 120% of last year's salary which I believe is around $19 mil. This means Williams CANNOT negotiate with any other team.
4. Franchise tag him (non-exclusive). This means he will be paid 120% of last year's salary which I believe is around $19 mil. This means Williams CAN negotiate with teams but would have to give up 2 firsts if they do. Also, the Giants get a chance to match any offer.
5. Transition tag him. This means he will still get paid 120% of last year's salary to my understanding. He can negotiate with any team. I think he can only bring 1 offer back to the Giants. The difference with this tag is that if the Giants do not match they receive NO compensation. I am not sure if he would count toward the comp pick formula in this case.
So, the main questions you have to ask yourself are:
A. Is Williams worth $19 mil this year vs. having more flexibility in FA?
B. Do you want Williams to negotiate with other teams to get a sense of what his value is?
C. Do you want compensation if he leaves (2 firsts for the non-exclusive franchise tag or most likely a 3rd round comp pick)?
What is your plan of action? I didn't want to get into keeping other players like Tomlinson even though that is part of the equation.
I'd have to know first which FA's I'm going to go very hard for / get before I determine if I am going to give Franchise Tag him or give him a short but BIG contract. SO for discussion purposes I'd say I would Franchise tag him because I'm trying to win the division which means I am going to cut and/or trade a lot of players and Tomlinson is not coming back.
I would want him but I want 3 other FA's too. One on the cheap at $5m say. But the other two more expensive.
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is going to want at least $20, and the Giants will want to pay at most $20 million. The Giants will want four years and Williams will want five. I think Williams wins and gets $100 million, 5 years. We will see if the Giants win on how it is structured.
If the Giants throw 20 million a year on a DL on a losing team like they are then they deserve to continue to be a losing team for another 3-4 yrs. there are to many other holes to fill, and that is why they are, and have been a losing team. Bad drafts (DJ, and Barkley), and bad FA signings like Solder, which had to be tried, because of the bad drafting of Flowers, and, trading for Williams all add up to a Losing team.
20-21 mil per is the market for a player like LW at the position he plays.
There are too many other holes to fill because the drafting has been shit for so long. Draft better and there’s less holes to fill. Good players get paid and LW is a good player.
is going to want at least $20, and the Giants will want to pay at most $20 million. The Giants will want four years and Williams will want five. I think Williams wins and gets $100 million, 5 years. We will see if the Giants win on how it is structured.
More likely Williams wants 4 and the Giants want 5.
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In comment 15168613 OntheRoad said:
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is going to want at least $20, and the Giants will want to pay at most $20 million. The Giants will want four years and Williams will want five. I think Williams wins and gets $100 million, 5 years. We will see if the Giants win on how it is structured.
If the Giants throw 20 million a year on a DL on a losing team like they are then they deserve to continue to be a losing team for another 3-4 yrs. there are to many other holes to fill, and that is why they are, and have been a losing team. Bad drafts (DJ, and Barkley), and bad FA signings like Solder, which had to be tried, because of the bad drafting of Flowers, and, trading for Williams all add up to a Losing team.
20-21 mil per is the market for a player like LW at the position he plays.
There are too many other holes to fill because the drafting has been shit for so long. Draft better and there’s less holes to fill. Good players get paid and LW is a good player.
One good year does not make him a good player. If the Giants were a good team, which they are not it would be a waste to spend that much money on a DL when there will be plenty of FA out there who can rush the passer, and come at a lot cheaper price tag. I would rather use the money to beef up the Oline. I don’t care what the market is Williams is not worth it.
^^This. It's a no-brainer. How are the other options better?
of player.
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which makes the current negotiations with the Giants very tricky.
Giants tagged Williams as a DT last year and Williams camp believes he is a DE. The grievence was filed back in 2019 and the Jets and Giants split the grievence issue since he was traded to the Giants midway through the 2019 season.Once the grievence is filed the NFLPA and NFL Management Council take over.The fact remains that the grievence is still unresolved.
The Giants could tag Williams again at $19.4M but the tag amount could increase to $21.3M if Williams wins the grievence.
According to PFF Williams played 54% of his snaps last year as DE.
I see the Giants tagging Williams again.Williams and his agent want to be paid as a DE.
Rick, great post. I have an argument though. How would he get paid $21.3? The rule is he gets paid the FT price for that position or 120% of his prior year's salary. Last year is done. Even if he wins now and is a DE I don't see how that affects his price this year. Last year's salaries are in the books. That shouldn't change anything for this year.
Also, I thought he got the DE designation last year. He was paid more than a DT was.
No he lost last year. Had he won I think he would have gotten $18 mill.
I think it was ruled a 3-4 DE is a DT, but noy sure.
One good year does not make him a good player. If the Giants were a good team, which they are not it would be a waste to spend that much money on a DL when there will be plenty of FA out there who can rush the passer, and come at a lot cheaper price tag. I would rather use the money to beef up the Oline. I don’t care what the market is Williams is not worth it.
He hasn't had only one good year, except one good year of sacks. IIRC, his pressures and QB hit numbers have been about the same as the previous year and even when he was with the Jets. This year he was able to get the sack numbers up. He didn't suddenly become good. He was always good. He just got more sacks this year in Graham's scheme.
This is why the Giants are the worst team in the NFL the last 5 years...this is exactly how our GM thinks. He outplayed AD? For one year...in a contract year! Now let's pay him like Aaron Darnold and watch his be average (like he was before his contract year) for 3-4 years.
Let him walk...you just witnessed the best year LW will have, at least until his next contract year.
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Aaron Donald. He deserves to be paid at the top of his position, so id pay the man what he wants (probably around 20m a year). Still young, arguably has better years ahead. He is a building block on a defense that has very few. To top it off, he seems like a good guy. There are so many assholes out there getting paid, he really deserves it.
This is why the Giants are the worst team in the NFL the last 5 years...this is exactly how our GM thinks. He outplayed AD? For one year...in a contract year! Now let's pay him like Aaron Darnold and watch his be average (like hbute was before his contract year) for 3-4 years.
Let him walk...you just witnessed the best year LW will have, at least until his next contract year.
He has played extremely well over his career, he just never had the sack numbers. He is not Aaron Donald, but I think at some point the wear and tear on Donald's undersized body will get to him.
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If someone wants to pay up two firsts... Adios!
^^This. It's a no-brainer. How are the other options better?
Two firsts??
not bloody likely...
I didn't leave that out. That is franchising him with the exclusive tag. And while you negotiate with him he is still clogging up $19.3 mil on the current cap. You could also tag and trade him too which was brought up. The NFL FA period is not like MLB. FT-ing him basically takes us out of the first wave of FA if not the second wave. Amd if we have negotiated with him for a year and a half now then how is this the likely scenario? We've been trying to do this to no avail.
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In comment 15168563 Finch said:
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If someone wants to pay up two firsts... Adios!
^^This. It's a no-brainer. How are the other options better?
Two firsts??
not bloody likely...
Well since no player has ever been tagged as an exclusive FA and then signed by another team, it is pretty obvious that the 2 1sts is a pretty obvious dissuader isn't it.
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If someone wants to pay up two firsts... Adios!
So you think he is worth two first round picks? Whose first round picks? The Bucs or the Jets?
Just because you get two picks for the guys, it does not mean those pics turn into a player who is producing at as high of a level as Williams is. The idea is to find players who can play... not picks. Once you have one of those players, you need to hold onto them...not trade them away. The Jets are the idiots for making the trade with us.
It would never happen, but are you seriously suggesting you would turn down two first round picks?...from anybody?
You got to be kidding...
Well since no player has ever been tagged as an exclusive FA and then signed by another team, it is pretty obvious that the 2 1sts is a pretty obvious dissuader isn't it.
For another team to try to out sign the team that tags the player...never been done and never will be.
There is your strategy.
Franchise and transition tags must be applied by Tuesday (Mar 9). Teams and agents are allowed to discuss contracts with players about to enter free agency between Mar 15-17.
Should be an interesting few weeks here.
Note Judge and Gettleman’s press conference on Tuesday is scheduled for the tag deadline date.
There is your strategy.
That is what a dumb losing team would do to write him a check.
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Well since no player has ever been tagged as an exclusive FA and then signed by another team, it is pretty obvious that the 2 1sts is a pretty obvious dissuader isn't it.
For another team to try to out sign the team that tags the player...never been done and never will be.
OK, but not following. The Giants still have to sign him or have him play under the tag...and what is the point of the latter? I assume LW will just sign the tag willingly.
Are you suggesting that will somehow force LW to accept the NYG terms?
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In comment 15168703 section125 said:
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Well since no player has ever been tagged as an exclusive FA and then signed by another team, it is pretty obvious that the 2 1sts is a pretty obvious dissuader isn't it.
For another team to try to out sign the team that tags the player...never been done and never will be.
OK, but not following. The Giants still have to sign him or have him play under the tag...and what is the point of the latter? I assume LW will just sign the tag willingly.
Are you suggesting that will somehow force LW to accept the NYG terms?
This means you never read the OP. Read selection #4 in the OP.
4. Franchise tag him (non-exclusive). This means he will be paid 120% of last year's salary which I believe is around $19 mil. This means Williams CAN negotiate with teams but would have to give up 2 firsts if they do. Also, the Giants get a chance to match any offer.
Duggan had an article on this last week on The Athletic.
Again, probably overthinking things but if I had to guess I’d say they are going to let him test the market and want to explain their thinking behind the decision sooner rather than later. I don’t think the timing of the press conference is merely a coincidence. Could be I’m way off on this, just a feeling I have.
Duggan had an article on this last week on The Athletic.
How though? The rule is he gets paid at his position or 120% of last year's salary. Since 120% of last year's salary is more than whatever tag he'd get this year then I don't see how it is relevant for the tag number. Is it useful in negotiating a long term contract? Yes. But I don't see how it affects his price if tagged. Last year's salary is in the books.
Again, probably overthinking things but if I had to guess I’d say they are going to let him test the market and want to explain their thinking behind the decision sooner rather than later. I don’t think the timing of the press conference is merely a coincidence. Could be I’m way off on this, just a feeling I have.
I think you are on the right track...
According to the Giants he was worth $16,126,000 in 2020.
Therefore, in 2021 he is worth $19,351,200, and in 2022 he is worth $27,865,728. By extension he worth a minimum of $47,216,928 up front, and/or $94,433,856 (the average of the first two years) through 4 years.
Now this seems like a lot of money, and whether you agree with this valuation is one thing, but the Giants set this market value for him when they tagged him. The tag value by rule increases 120% and then 144% in the subsequent two years after the first tag. If you are WIlliams agent that's your argument, and the Giants, no matter what they believe is the right price, made his price when they tagged him.
I really don't know what the point of tagging Williams again is -- basically that means you are willing to pay him $47,216,928 over the next two years and then he becomes a free agent. Having Williams for the next two years and then losing him is pointless in my opinion, so either you are willing to give him the $94.4 million for a four year deal with $47.2 guaranteed - or you have to let him go.
Moving forward, they have a good shot of being a darn good D this year if they hit on a corner. The rookies last year are good depth and perhaps the to injured LB's can rebound.
They can win the East this year. A strong D is the way to do it. Yes we need lots of help on O but they can be much improved if the OL steps up and Barkley rebounds strong which I expect. Williams is a known entity. Draft picks and new FA's are not. Rather you the picks on adding to a weakness not replacing imo. Sign him however you can.
Moving forward, they have a good shot of being a darn good D this year if they hit on a corner. The rookies last year are good depth and perhaps the to injured LB's can rebound.
They can win the East this year. A strong D is the way to do it. Yes we need lots of help on O but they can be much improved if the OL steps up and Barkley rebounds strong which I expect. Williams is a known entity. Draft picks and new FA's are not. Rather you the picks on adding to a weakness not replacing imo. Sign him however you can.
what if he wants to be paid like Donald or a top DE? He has an arguable case to that effect.
jmo but if he'd take it I'd be very willing to give him Buckner money, but if not I'd be very willing to tag and trade him similar to the Buckner trade (perhaps a 2nd round pick+ accounting for a softer market due to low cap).
He's said mostly reasonable things in his public comments so i'd hope the 2 sides just work it out and I'd still guess that's more likely than any other scenarios.
I like the idea of keeping good players not having to replace them. If Jones does not work out and they have a very good D I think they are in a better position to address the QB position as well.
According to the Giants he was worth $16,126,000 in 2020.
Therefore, in 2021 he is worth $19,351,200, and in 2022 he is worth $27,865,728. By extension he worth a minimum of $47,216,928 up front, and/or $94,433,856 (the average of the first two years) through 4 years.
Now this seems like a lot of money, and whether you agree with this valuation is one thing, but the Giants set this market value for him when they tagged him. The tag value by rule increases 120% and then 144% in the subsequent two years after the first tag. If you are WIlliams agent that's your argument, and the Giants, no matter what they believe is the right price, made his price when they tagged him.
I really don't know what the point of tagging Williams again is -- basically that means you are willing to pay him $47,216,928 over the next two years and then he becomes a free agent. Having Williams for the next two years and then losing him is pointless in my opinion, so either you are willing to give him the $94.4 million for a four year deal with $47.2 guaranteed - or you have to let him go.
Gidiefor - while I follow the sentiment here and the calculations to value, market value is clearly determined using other methods such as comps and other bids.
And agreeably, there is no point to tagging Williams again unless the Giants have already 1) set up a tag and trade deal or 2) seriously think they are a contender for the Super Bowl in 2021.
The tag doesn't seem to incentivize this player to a deal, the Giants will have paid Williams nearly $36M+ in salaries (assuming he stays as a tagged DT and is only higher if he wins his grievance) and gained no further control over his services going forward.
And, they will just be back here in the same spot 12 months from now.
I like the idea of keeping good players not having to replace them. If Jones does not work out and they have a very good D I think they are in a better position to address the QB position as well.
I don't disagree, but there's always some line in negotiations where the number is too restrictive to the opportunity cost.
Also almost all of the positives re: Williams can be said about Tomlinson too in terms of not wanting to lose a good player. At some point if Williams is asking for almost 2x what Tomlinson costs the math just becomes hard to justify.
Tomlinson (assuming he's not also asking for crazy $)
+ 10m (or more) to spend on other players in FA
+ draft compensation for trading Williams
is a compelling alternative if Williams is unreasonable.
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and his value was punctuated with his performance.
According to the Giants he was worth $16,126,000 in 2020.
Therefore, in 2021 he is worth $19,351,200, and in 2022 he is worth $27,865,728. By extension he worth a minimum of $47,216,928 up front, and/or $94,433,856 (the average of the first two years) through 4 years.
Now this seems like a lot of money, and whether you agree with this valuation is one thing, but the Giants set this market value for him when they tagged him. The tag value by rule increases 120% and then 144% in the subsequent two years after the first tag. If you are WIlliams agent that's your argument, and the Giants, no matter what they believe is the right price, made his price when they tagged him.
I really don't know what the point of tagging Williams again is -- basically that means you are willing to pay him $47,216,928 over the next two years and then he becomes a free agent. Having Williams for the next two years and then losing him is pointless in my opinion, so either you are willing to give him the $94.4 million for a four year deal with $47.2 guaranteed - or you have to let him go.
Gidiefor - while I follow the sentiment here and the calculations to value, market value is clearly determined using other methods such as comps and other bids.
And agreeably, there is no point to tagging Williams again unless the Giants have already 1) set up a tag and trade deal or 2) seriously think they are a contender for the Super Bowl in 2021.
The tag doesn't seem to incentivize this player to a deal, the Giants will have paid Williams nearly $36M+ in salaries (assuming he stays as a tagged DT and is only higher if he wins his grievance) and gained no further control over his services going forward.
And, they will just be back here in the same spot 12 months from now.
Chick, I understand what you are saying, and agree that as a general principle market value is determined by market forces, some of which you describe. But I am arguing that the Giants removed those market forces when they tagged Williams, when they essentially purchased a regulated monopoly over him. This regulated monopoly set him outside the market and ordinary market rules. Since the rules of this monopoly are regulated, the regulations dictate what Williams' value is to the Giants - and this is only relevant to the Giants imo
And other deals certainly won't equate to calcs of 144%.
But even if they do, they can opt not to bid.
Many looked at LW as a jag a few months ago too. I'd argue (and have) both were wrong pretty much the entire time. Both are quality DL who have started and played well pretty much since the day they stepped into the NFL.
The only question with each is what the price tag is and what's possible given the unexpected cap regression.
As much as I hated the moronic trade in the first place, I like LW as a plus player and as a young and healthy play maker on the field and he sure appears to be a good character guy off the field. He’s one of the best players on our team and he’s the keystone of the defense. Sign him. Frankly, this deal should already have been done. I think the lack of a deal really shows how clueless Getty and the Giants are. Seriously, wtf is this guy still not signed?
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The timing of this random press conference on Tuesday just happens to coincide with the deadline to tag players. Coincidence? Maybe. I’m probably overthinking this but part of me kind of thinks that a decision has already been made on LW and the press conference is a way to explain their decision. So I ask myself, if they tag him would that decision prompt a press conference? And if he’s agreed to a long term extension you’d think we would be hearing whispers about that but we’ve actually heard repeatedly that they aren’t close.
Again, probably overthinking things but if I had to guess I’d say they are going to let him test the market and want to explain their thinking behind the decision sooner rather than later. I don’t think the timing of the press conference is merely a coincidence. Could be I’m way off on this, just a feeling I have.
I think you are on the right track...
Agreed. Excellent analysis.
According to the Giants he was worth $16,126,000 in 2020.
Therefore, in 2021 he is worth $19,351,200, and in 2022 he is worth $27,865,728. By extension he worth a minimum of $47,216,928 up front, and/or $94,433,856 (the average of the first two years) through 4 years.
Now this seems like a lot of money, and whether you agree with this valuation is one thing, but the Giants set this market value for him when they tagged him. The tag value by rule increases 120% and then 144% in the subsequent two years after the first tag. If you are WIlliams agent that's your argument, and the Giants, no matter what they believe is the right price, made his price when they tagged him.
I really don't know what the point of tagging Williams again is -- basically that means you are willing to pay him $47,216,928 over the next two years and then he becomes a free agent. Having Williams for the next two years and then losing him is pointless in my opinion, so either you are willing to give him the $94.4 million for a four year deal with $47.2 guaranteed - or you have to let him go.
Also agree. Endlessly tagging Williams creates an artificial market that may not otherwise exist. It also destroys your cap. I let him test FA, and hope that he will give the Giants the chance to match any other offer.
The only issue with tagging him this year is that it's a larger chunk of the overall pie in the reduced cap environment (16m on a 198 cap = 8%, 19m on a 182 cap = 10.5%). And with Tomlinson hitting FA as an important player at the same position, there's a very real opportunity cost.
Also in theory if demand for LW is higher this year than last, there should be more trade demand for him too. Which creates another potential viable outcome.
(having said all that, I think the NYG resign him for a deal similar to Buckner's with Indy, perhaps 1 extra year though).
2. A recurring theme throughout seems to be an effort to equate Leo’s ‘20 season with Markus Golden’s ‘19, I guess because of comparable sack totals . That’s insane . Williams is one of the best defensive linemen in the league , strong against both the run and pass.
3. In any analysis , the most recent history is the most important history . Same as with the Daily Racing Form or evaluating a starting pitcher against a money line . Williams has yet to turn 27 . He’s in his prime . He’s committed himself nutritionally to max out his considerable physical talents . Furthermore Judge has said that Leo is the type of teammate who inspires everyone in the locker room.
There is no “choice “ as far as keeping him. How they go about it can be debated . But if he walks , Gettleman and everybody else working under him, should be fired .
Section?