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Strategy regarding Leonard Williams.

robbieballs2003 : 3/6/2021 7:39 pm
What do you guys prefer? List reasons why. The last day to tag a player is March 9th so if the Giants want to go down that path expect more moves over the next few days.

Here are the options:

1. The Giants and Leonard Williams come to a deal. If it is this option you have to assume it is at least $20 mil per year with a nice chunk guaranteed if he is going to avoid testing FA.

2. The Giants let Williams hit FA because they don't want to tie up around $19 mil in him for 2021 which will handcuff us during FA. However, they'll still be in contact with him and have an offer on the table. If they lose him in FA he would almost definitely receive a 3rd round comp pick and potentially the top comp pick.

3. Franchise tag him (exclusive). This means he will be paid 120% of last year's salary which I believe is around $19 mil. This means Williams CANNOT negotiate with any other team.

4. Franchise tag him (non-exclusive). This means he will be paid 120% of last year's salary which I believe is around $19 mil. This means Williams CAN negotiate with teams but would have to give up 2 firsts if they do. Also, the Giants get a chance to match any offer.

5. Transition tag him. This means he will still get paid 120% of last year's salary to my understanding. He can negotiate with any team. I think he can only bring 1 offer back to the Giants. The difference with this tag is that if the Giants do not match they receive NO compensation. I am not sure if he would count toward the comp pick formula in this case.

So, the main questions you have to ask yourself are:

A. Is Williams worth $19 mil this year vs. having more flexibility in FA?

B. Do you want Williams to negotiate with other teams to get a sense of what his value is?

C. Do you want compensation if he leaves (2 firsts for the non-exclusive franchise tag or most likely a 3rd round comp pick)?


What is your plan of action? I didn't want to get into keeping other players like Tomlinson even though that is part of the equation.
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...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/6/2021 7:41 pm : link
I want him back, as long as the #s aren't astronomical. He is still super young & has a ton of talent.
RE: ...  
Big Blue '56 : 3/6/2021 7:49 pm : link
In comment 15168538 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I want him back, as long as the #s aren't astronomical. He is still super young & has a ton of talent.


I want him back. He’s too young and too good to let him go and yes, the numbers will be astronomical in all likelihood, but the Giants will survive.
He outplayed  
Straw Hat : 3/6/2021 7:51 pm : link
Aaron Donald. He deserves to be paid at the top of his position, so id pay the man what he wants (probably around 20m a year). Still young, arguably has better years ahead. He is a building block on a defense that has very few. To top it off, he seems like a good guy. There are so many assholes out there getting paid, he really deserves it.
Apparently you three want him back  
robbieballs2003 : 3/6/2021 7:58 pm : link
But haven't stated what your approach would be.
No guarantee of a comp pick  
GiantsRage2007 : 3/6/2021 7:58 pm : link
If we sign more FA than we lose.

Can’t really count on it.
RE: No guarantee of a comp pick  
robbieballs2003 : 3/6/2021 8:00 pm : link
In comment 15168546 GiantsRage2007 said:
Quote:
If we sign more FA than we lose.

Can’t really count on it.


That's what I always thought but supposedly if you lose a really big fish and don't get a big fish you still get that comp.
2 options - extend him or tag to trade  
Eric on Li : 3/6/2021 8:03 pm : link
and in the trade scenario you get back whatever you can. It should at least be a 2nd or 3rd.

transition tag creates too much uncertainty imo.
"He really deservrs it"  
Grizz99 : 3/6/2021 8:06 pm : link
We take fairy dust and step out of reality.
No, I don't think he really deserves it, but maybe it's just me, I don't think anybody deserves it and where flying off into a Quantum world of unreality. But be that as it may. DeForest Buckner set the market at 20 million last year and clearly Williams is in that category or neighborhood.
If it had been a great year and the cap had going up you might expect William's compensation to go up fortunately. To the degree that covid has negatively affected the cap an income oh, I don't think it's unreasonable 4 his asking price to go down.
And if not, then I think that the 20 million will buy more in free agency this year than last..
I think he's a legitimate star and I hope he's here for the rest of his career, but there's also external realities that I hope both parties take into consideration.
RE: Apparently you three want him back  
Big Blue '56 : 3/6/2021 8:13 pm : link
In comment 15168545 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
But haven't stated what your approach would be.


Approach? Give him his 20 mill/yr for 4 years with a hefty SB..If you can’t work it out, tag him..That’s what I’ve been saying for quite awhile now
Williams filed a grievence about his position that has been unresolved  
Rick in Dallas : 3/6/2021 8:14 pm : link
which makes the current negotiations with the Giants very tricky.
Giants tagged Williams as a DT last year and Williams camp believes he is a DE. The grievence was filed back in 2019 and the Jets and Giants split the grievence issue since he was traded to the Giants midway through the 2019 season.Once the grievence is filed the NFLPA and NFL Management Council take over.The fact remains that the grievence is still unresolved.
The Giants could tag Williams again at $19.4M but the tag amount could increase to $21.3M if Williams wins the grievence.
According to PFF Williams played 54% of his snaps last year as DE.
I see the Giants tagging Williams again.Williams and his agent want to be paid as a DE.
I will take option #1...  
EricJ : 3/6/2021 8:19 pm : link
because they could likely lock him up long term. The cap will increase over time.
#2.  
AcidTest : 3/6/2021 8:24 pm : link
I fully understand Williams wanting to hit FA and see if a team will pay him $20-$21M. The Giants would have to offer him that right now to prevent him from doing so. They are smart not to do so given the consequences to their cap.

If Williams can't get that in FA, he probably thinks he can still get what the Giants offered, either from them or another team.

No interest in any tag, not at $19.3M, unless a long term deal or trade was imminent. The lower cap precludes it IMO.

Williams is a great player, but he's never had a season like last year, and was playing with DT and DL.

My concern is that DG will overpay to justify the trade, but that is done. The draft picks are a sunk cost.

A comp pick for Williams is not guaranteed. He would simply become part of the formula.
RE: Williams filed a grievence about his position that has been unresolved  
robbieballs2003 : 3/6/2021 8:24 pm : link
In comment 15168554 Rick in Dallas said:
Quote:
which makes the current negotiations with the Giants very tricky.
Giants tagged Williams as a DT last year and Williams camp believes he is a DE. The grievence was filed back in 2019 and the Jets and Giants split the grievence issue since he was traded to the Giants midway through the 2019 season.Once the grievence is filed the NFLPA and NFL Management Council take over.The fact remains that the grievence is still unresolved.
The Giants could tag Williams again at $19.4M but the tag amount could increase to $21.3M if Williams wins the grievence.
According to PFF Williams played 54% of his snaps last year as DE.
I see the Giants tagging Williams again.Williams and his agent want to be paid as a DE.


Rick, great post. I have an argument though. How would he get paid $21.3? The rule is he gets paid the FT price for that position or 120% of his prior year's salary. Last year is done. Even if he wins now and is a DE I don't see how that affects his price this year. Last year's salaries are in the books. That shouldn't change anything for this year.

Also, I thought he got the DE designation last year. He was paid more than a DT was.
RE: Apparently you three want him back  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/6/2021 8:26 pm : link
In comment 15168545 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
But haven't stated what your approach would be.


1, though I think 20 million a season is at the high end of what he's worth.
I always get nervous about signing a player to an astronomical  
Ira : 3/6/2021 8:26 pm : link
contract after a career year.
Franchise tag him (non-exclusive)  
Finch : 3/6/2021 8:28 pm : link
If someone wants to pay up two firsts... Adios!
RE: RE: Apparently you three want him back  
EricJ : 3/6/2021 8:28 pm : link
In comment 15168560 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
In comment 15168545 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


But haven't stated what your approach would be.



1, though I think 20 million a season is at the high end of what he's worth.


When you are a team starved for players who can perform at a high level.. the a player like Williams is worth $20 million.

When you in the desert for two days, a bottle of water is worth ....
Undoubtedly...  
bw in dc : 3/6/2021 8:28 pm : link
#2. Let LW test the market and ask Team LW if we can have final look.

But hope he gets a blockbuster deal elsewhere so we can use that money for different, more crucial needs.
The  
AcidTest : 3/6/2021 8:33 pm : link
Giants might have concluded that because of the lower cap, Williams is unlikely to find a team that will pay him $20-$21M. The might also think that even if he does, that he'll allow them a chance to match before leaving. That's why I hope they don't tag him. Even $19.3M is too much.
Robbie  
Rick in Dallas : 3/6/2021 8:33 pm : link
Williams was tagged as a DT at $16.1 last year. The DE tag was $17.8 in 2020. The grievance was filed in 2019 before the 2020 DT tag was placed on Williams.
There is 0  
TommyWiseau : 3/6/2021 8:38 pm : link
guarantee that if we let him walk, we will get a comp pick. If we sign players it could cancel him out. I would find a way to get a deal done or franchise him. He should be the #1 priority
offer him 5 yrs 100 mill  
Chip : 3/6/2021 8:41 pm : link
guarantee the first 3 years. 20 mill signing bonus and vet minimum year 1. year 2 18 mil. year three 19 mil. year 4 20 mil year 5 21 mil or something like that. If he says no let him walk and move on. He is an awesome player but putting all your eggs in one basket can be dangerous but he has been able to keep his ass on the field.
RE: I always get nervous about signing a player to an astronomical  
Old Blue : 3/6/2021 8:45 pm : link
In comment 15168562 Ira said:
Quote:
contract after a career year.



How many high priced DL linemen contracts turn out well??
#2  
Jimmy Googs : 3/6/2021 8:47 pm : link
Which is how this needed to play out a year ago.

Our guys really suck at how build a roster...
RE: Robbie  
robbieballs2003 : 3/6/2021 8:47 pm : link
In comment 15168570 Rick in Dallas said:
Quote:
Williams was tagged as a DT at $16.1 last year. The DE tag was $17.8 in 2020. The grievance was filed in 2019 before the 2020 DT tag was placed on Williams.


Okay, but I don't see how that changes his number this year. The league doesn't go back and give retro pay. That would mess up the salary cap. I don't think his number goes above $19.3.
DG  
AcidTest : 3/6/2021 8:50 pm : link
grossly underestimated how hard it would be to sign Williams to a long term deal.
RE: RE: Robbie  
Old Blue : 3/6/2021 8:53 pm : link
In comment 15168577 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
In comment 15168570 Rick in Dallas said:


Quote:


Williams was tagged as a DT at $16.1 last year. The DE tag was $17.8 in 2020. The grievance was filed in 2019 before the 2020 DT tag was placed on Williams.



Okay, but I don't see how that changes his number this year. The league doesn't go back and give retro pay. That would mess up the salary cap. I don't think his number goes above $19.3.


20 million is to much money for a guy who has only had one good year, and plays on a losing team that has lots of holes to fill.


LW  
Colin@gbn : 3/6/2021 8:54 pm : link
Here's what I think for what its worth. The Giants want to keep him around for at least another year, but aren't prepared to sign him to a long term deal with much guaranteed money after just one good year. Franchise him again this year; the DT/DE stuff is only about the final dollars. Then in 2022 they re-evaluate. If it looks like they'll need to spend big bucks on DJ or #26 you let him walk and use next year's draft to address the pass rush. If it looks like you probably won't need the big bucks for your QB/RB then they rethink LW although I have to feel that the Giants are very very nervous about putting that much money into a near-30-old guy that hasn't been consistently productive.
I don't get the narrative that he hasn't been consistently productive.  
robbieballs2003 : 3/6/2021 9:00 pm : link
He has always been a great run defended and he has provided pressure. Because the sacks are low people seem to think he isn't productive. He isn't a traditional DE so he is consistently doubled. He is very valuable.

Now, you can easily say he isn't worth $20 mil per year. That's valid but criticizing his consistency or production isn't valid to me.
RE: LW  
Old Blue : 3/6/2021 9:02 pm : link
In comment 15168582 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:
Here's what I think for what its worth. The Giants want to keep him around for at least another year, but aren't prepared to sign him to a long term deal with much guaranteed money after just one good year. Franchise him again this year; the DT/DE stuff is only about the final dollars. Then in 2022 they re-evaluate. If it looks like they'll need to spend big bucks on DJ or #26 you let him walk and use next year's draft to address the pass rush. If it looks like you probably won't need the big bucks for your QB/RB then they rethink LW although I have to feel that the Giants are very very nervous about putting that much money into a near-30-old guy that hasn't been consistently productive.


You won’t need to spend big bucks on DJ, or #26, so tag him with non-exclusive, and if someone else wants him so bad then let him go, and get something for him.
I have always said I’d reserve judgment on the trade  
rasbutant : 3/6/2021 9:06 pm : link
Until he is signed long term. But man it’s hard not to second guess not signing him long term when you make the trade.

Hopefully they can come to an agreement now, but if not the tag is fine with me. Can always remove it later on if need be.
Give me sacks or give me ...  
Colin@gbn : 3/6/2021 9:07 pm : link
Robbie: Indeed, I was probably a little inarticulate. If you are going to pay a DE that kind of money you expect sacks, lots of them and until last year LW had never been much of a sacker. No question that he's a really good, valuable player but man you pay him what he wants and he goes south on you (Solder anyone!) and you could hamstring your cap just about the time Jones and Barkley are up for FA. Welcome to the NFL.
RE: RE: LW  
Colin@gbn : 3/6/2021 9:11 pm : link
In comment 15168584 Old Blue said:
Quote:
In comment 15168582 Colin@gbn said:


Quote:


Here's what I think for what its worth. The Giants want to keep him around for at least another year, but aren't prepared to sign him to a long term deal with much guaranteed money after just one good year. Franchise him again this year; the DT/DE stuff is only about the final dollars. Then in 2022 they re-evaluate. If it looks like they'll need to spend big bucks on DJ or #26 you let him walk and use next year's draft to address the pass rush. If it looks like you probably won't need the big bucks for your QB/RB then they rethink LW although I have to feel that the Giants are very very nervous about putting that much money into a near-30-old guy that hasn't been consistently productive.



You won’t need to spend big bucks on DJ, or #26, so tag him with non-exclusive, and if someone else wants him so bad then let him go, and get something for him.


I just figured out how people get those boxes! Forgive me I'm a 19th century kind of guy. Olb Blue. I believe the Giants want to keep LW around for this year, otherwise they got no pass rush. Then next year if it comes to it you let him walk and rebuild the pass rush in FA and the draft.
I agree. And I have tried to keel my opinion out of this  
robbieballs2003 : 3/6/2021 9:18 pm : link
But last year I would have let Williams test FA either without a tag or as a transition tag. Let the market set his price. Pat Kirwan always stated you only use the FT if you are willing to give a long term contract at that tag number annually. The Giants weren't so they used the tag as a way to not lose him which was a bad approach. They couldn't agree on a long term contract and all Williams did was increase his number even more. Again, it seems that the Giants will use the tag as to not lose him but not what they want to pay him annually. They are their own worst enemy. They gave Williams a ton of leverage.

I like Williams a ton. I wanted to keep him but I agree that $20 mil per is concerning. All the people that are annoyed with guys like Solder and Zeitler will most likely feel the same in the last couple of years of his deal. That is why last year I would have kept the average yearly salary around $15 or less but guarantee most of the deal. Williams is the definition of consistency so I would take the risk on guaranteeing the majority of the contract vs. giving a huge average yearly number.
RE: RE: RE: LW  
Old Blue : 3/6/2021 9:20 pm : link
In comment 15168589 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:
In comment 15168584 Old Blue said:


Quote:


In comment 15168582 Colin@gbn said:


Quote:


Here's what I think for what its worth. The Giants want to keep him around for at least another year, but aren't prepared to sign him to a long term deal with much guaranteed money after just one good year. Franchise him again this year; the DT/DE stuff is only about the final dollars. Then in 2022 they re-evaluate. If it looks like they'll need to spend big bucks on DJ or #26 you let him walk and use next year's draft to address the pass rush. If it looks like you probably won't need the big bucks for your QB/RB then they rethink LW although I have to feel that the Giants are very very nervous about putting that much money into a near-30-old guy that hasn't been consistently productive.



You won’t need to spend big bucks on DJ, or #26, so tag him with non-exclusive, and if someone else wants him so bad then let him go, and get something for him.



I just figured out how people get those boxes! Forgive me I'm a 19th century kind of guy. Olb Blue. I believe the Giants want to keep LW around for this year, otherwise they got no pass rush. Then next year if it comes to it you let him walk and rebuild the pass rush in FA and the draft.


If you want to tag him fine, but NO long term contract. You can get a cheaper FA with all that will be out there who can give you a pass rush, but 19-20 million to me is way to much money to spend when it is needed everywhere else.
By far it's option 1  
Judge_and_Jury : 3/6/2021 9:27 pm : link
1. The Giants and Leonard Williams come to a deal. If it is this option you have to assume it is at least $20 mil per year with a nice chunk guaranteed if he is going to avoid testing FA.

I also believe they would structure it with a lower first year cap hit of 10-14 million. This is a win all around as you keep a young dominant player who should be a cornerstone of your defense long term AND have him at a lower first year hit than the franchise tag in a lower salary cap year which will give NYG flexibility to do more things in Free Agnecy.
The odds that Jones and Barkley are worth paying seem long  
Go Terps : 3/6/2021 9:28 pm : link
Williams is a better, more influential player than both.

I say pay Williams now and accept that you aren't going to pay Jones or Barkley.
RE: Franchise tag him (non-exclusive)  
SGMen : 3/6/2021 9:28 pm : link
In comment 15168563 Finch said:
Quote:
If someone wants to pay up two firsts... Adios!
Finch, I feel the same way but I can't see anyone willing to pay two #1's...
RE: Franchise tag him (non-exclusive)  
EricJ : 3/6/2021 9:34 pm : link
In comment 15168563 Finch said:
Quote:
If someone wants to pay up two firsts... Adios!


So you think he is worth two first round picks? Whose first round picks? The Bucs or the Jets?

Just because you get two picks for the guys, it does not mean those pics turn into a player who is producing at as high of a level as Williams is. The idea is to find players who can play... not picks. Once you have one of those players, you need to hold onto them...not trade them away. The Jets are the idiots for making the trade with us.
RE: RE: Franchise tag him (non-exclusive)  
AcidTest : 3/6/2021 9:38 pm : link
In comment 15168594 SGMen said:
Quote:
In comment 15168563 Finch said:


Quote:


If someone wants to pay up two firsts... Adios!

Finch, I feel the same way but I can't see anyone willing to pay two #1's...


You can take less than two #1's IIRC. I would. Try and get teams with a ton of cap space interested. The Giants have to stop thinking about short term fixes, and develop a long term plan. Tagging Williams to avoid not having any pass rush this season is the former unless a long term deal is imminent, which seems unlikely. Constant short term thinking by the FO is one reason we have been terrible for years.
RE: LW  
WillVAB : 3/6/2021 9:42 pm : link
In comment 15168582 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:
Here's what I think for what its worth. The Giants want to keep him around for at least another year, but aren't prepared to sign him to a long term deal with much guaranteed money after just one good year. Franchise him again this year; the DT/DE stuff is only about the final dollars. Then in 2022 they re-evaluate. If it looks like they'll need to spend big bucks on DJ or #26 you let him walk and use next year's draft to address the pass rush. If it looks like you probably won't need the big bucks for your QB/RB then they rethink LW although I have to feel that the Giants are very very nervous about putting that much money into a near-30-old guy that hasn't been consistently productive.


You’re pretty clueless about LW’s value. “Near 30?” He will be 27 in June.
Just  
AcidTest : 3/6/2021 9:44 pm : link
because we don't know whether we'll have to pay Jones or Barkley doesn't mean we should pay Williams $20-$21M.
We need the lower cap hit in 2021  
Payasdaddy : 3/6/2021 9:47 pm : link
Sign him to a 5 yr 100 million deal
As long as we aren’t handcuffed doing other things in FA
At 14 million cap hit in 2021, might be room for Dalvin or a top WR.
If not then a younger cheaper OG vs zeitler, ER like Judon or another cb
RE: RE: RE: Franchise tag him (non-exclusive)  
Old Blue : 3/6/2021 9:48 pm : link
In comment 15168596 AcidTest said:
Quote:
In comment 15168594 SGMen said:


Quote:


In comment 15168563 Finch said:


Quote:


If someone wants to pay up two firsts... Adios!

Finch, I feel the same way but I can't see anyone willing to pay two #1's...



You can take less than two #1's IIRC. I would. Try and get teams with a ton of cap space interested. The Giants have to stop thinking about short term fixes, and develop a long term plan. Tagging Williams to avoid not having any pass rush this season is the former unless a long term deal is imminent, which seems unlikely. Constant short term thinking by the FO is one reason we have been terrible for years.


I’m not for paying Williams big money for one year, or more than one year. Even though he had a good year last year it was not a smart trade when they got him. Trade was between two bad teams, and Williams was on the last year of his contract, which didn’t make sense. Like I said you can get a pass rusher off the big FA pool, which will be a lot cheaper, and then the money can be spent elsewhere.
RE: Just  
Go Terps : 3/6/2021 9:51 pm : link
In comment 15168600 AcidTest said:
Quote:
because we don't know whether we'll have to pay Jones or Barkley doesn't mean we should pay Williams $20-$21M.


Williams is versatile, fits in Graham's defense, and is the ideal pass rusher in the modern era of mobile quarterbacks who exploit gaps in the defensive line to run or extend plays. I think he has a lot of value for how this team is currently built and coached.

Not signing Williams is a viable option if a concerted effort is made to dive in to rebuilding the offense. Use this offseason to throw everything into rebuilding the offense. That's an option, but it doesn't solve the fatal flaw of Jones and Garrett.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Franchise tag him (non-exclusive)  
bw in dc : 3/6/2021 9:53 pm : link
In comment 15168603 Old Blue said:
Quote:

I’m not for paying Williams big money for one year, or more than one year. Even though he had a good year last year it was not a smart trade when they got him. Trade was between two bad teams, and Williams was on the last year of his contract, which didn’t make sense. Like I said you can get a pass rusher off the big FA pool, which will be a lot cheaper, and then the money can be spent elsewhere.


That's a very interesting idea. I share you view that there is going to be an avalanche of quality players released at every position. So let LW walk, be patient, and let the market come to you...
Sign him...  
trueblueinpw : 3/6/2021 10:06 pm : link
I’d sign LW. No question about it. He’s 26 and he’s a difference maker. I think it will take $21m / 5y.

I not sure LW will play on the tag. If he’s transitioned I think he’ll get stupid money offers and that’s what I really want to avoid because Getty has pride in this stupid trade that he bungled at ever juncture. Sign him and make sure he’s in camp on time and happy.

The interesting question is how to sign LW and DT.
great question  
bc4life : 3/6/2021 10:15 pm : link
Would not franchise again. I don't think he wants it either because he's at his peak earning power right now - if he were to get dinged up or have a lesser year - could hurt him.

Don't know exactly what he's worth but he's not Donald or Chris Jones so he's not getting that. Might also depend on what Tomlinson wants - the two are not comparable but DT is a plus player and they have Dexter coming on.

If LW walks - I wouldn't let that money burn a hole in my pocket feeling that I have to spend it. I'd probably use it to pick up a few reasonably priced players Ravens RB mentioned a few days ago and TE like Manhertz or someone similar. A FB possibly. Cornerback. Their TE blocking is mediocre at this point. If you are featuring SB as core of offense - you have to have all "plus" blockers. I might see if any of the OL could trim down and be a serviceable TE (probably a pipe dream).

I have to think they're sniffing around a guy like Isiah Thomas - sniffing is free. You really have to draft tackles, or else be lucky as hell.

Don't make mistake of thinking one player in FA is going to get you there. Bargain shop and draft wisely and keep an ear open for someone who might offer a deal for Engram we can't refuse.
Leonard Williams  
OntheRoad : 3/6/2021 10:16 pm : link

is going to want at least $20, and the Giants will want to pay at most $20 million. The Giants will want four years and Williams will want five. I think Williams wins and gets $100 million, 5 years. We will see if the Giants win on how it is structured.
Isaiah  
bc4life : 3/6/2021 10:17 pm : link
Wilson not Thomas
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