but seeing all of this dead money, Solder -$6M, Tate -$4M, paying Graham Gano $4.25 million. That’s rough. I know the cap was reduced due to COVID this year, but every season Gettleman seems to drag us through dead money hell.
Look at it this way, that Solder and Tate dead money is why Tomlinson is likely gone.
Looking at NFC East, Philly has 40, WFT 13, Dallas 9
You are right that ours will go up once they sort out what to do with Solder
The debt for all these mistakes inevitably comes due.
Gettleman said yesterday: "I’m not going to put a win number on it, I’m just not going to go there. I think we’re just about there. Talking to you guys, you’ve alluded to some of our needs and I believe we’re going to get there."
What "we're going to get there" means is anyone's guess.
It may very well have been a stupid trade, but I think those numbers are silly
Next GM, meh..But if not for Covid and the reduced cap number, we’d be in their expected cap shape that they guestimate pre-covid, imho
Of course it does. It’s being deducted from our cap number for this year. We are eating 4.7 million for Tate, 6.5 million for Solder (presuming he is cut), 2.8 million for Baker, and 2.5 for Zietler. That’s 16.5 million of cap room lost for 2021
Shummer's buy in of Solder and Tate.....should not saddled Judge....hopefully....Judge stabilize the coaching staff will minimize dead money
Other than keeping score on BBI, does it matter?
And Good Lord...can the next GM be outside the 'Giants family?'
I get that it's infuriating to be cap-stressed when the team has been very bad for years. However this is a weird year to be upset with that, with the cap actually going down significantly. The lower cap, in turn, forces teams to cut pricey veterans. Cutting veterans results in dead money. I don't think it's simple. Am I wrong?
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We're about to pay him $6M-$9M a year more than what we probably could have signed him for after we traded for him.
It may very well have been a stupid trade, but I think those numbers are silly
The numbers being thrown around for Williams in 2018 were $11M-$13M.
The trade was dumb, but failing to sign him immediately after was absolutely idiotic.
Williams bet on himself. Did the Giants offer him a deal? Maybe. But he didn’t sign it. You can’t blame that on the Giants.
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dead money has nothing to do with you can sign and not sign.
Of course it does. It’s being deducted from our cap number for this year. We are eating 4.7 million for Tate, 6.5 million for Solder (presuming he is cut), 2.8 million for Baker, and 2.5 for Zietler. That’s 16.5 million of cap room lost for 2021
No it doesn't.. Dead money comes from paying money out for a player not there but said player would have cost us so much more if he stayed! We aren't (the fans) paying the money out. All we care about is cap space and being able to afford the players we want.
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dead money has nothing to do with you can sign and not sign.
Of course it does. It’s being deducted from our cap number for this year. We are eating 4.7 million for Tate, 6.5 million for Solder (presuming he is cut), 2.8 million for Baker, and 2.5 for Zietler. That’s 16.5 million of cap room lost for 2021
are you assuming Solder is a pre-june 1 cut or post cut?
If he is a pre june 1 cut to give us some more FA ammo he will actually be 10 MM of dead cap space.
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In comment 15172568 Andy in Boston said:
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dead money has nothing to do with you can sign and not sign.
Of course it does. It’s being deducted from our cap number for this year. We are eating 4.7 million for Tate, 6.5 million for Solder (presuming he is cut), 2.8 million for Baker, and 2.5 for Zietler. That’s 16.5 million of cap room lost for 2021
No it doesn't.. Dead money comes from paying money out for a player not there but said player would have cost us so much more if he stayed! We aren't (the fans) paying the money out. All we care about is cap space and being able to afford the players we want.
Thats a really horrible way to look at dead cap space...
The debt for all these mistakes inevitably comes due.
Gettleman said yesterday: "I’m not going to put a win number on it, I’m just not going to go there. I think we’re just about there. Talking to you guys, you’ve alluded to some of our needs and I believe we’re going to get there."
What "we're going to get there" means is anyone's guess.
You dont like management, ownership, or the players. What exactly is your ass a fan of? I'm curious. The uniforms? Why do you even bother anymore?
Outside of locking him up for pennies on the dollar I suspect nothing will make some happy. The guy bet on himself and won, it happens.
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In comment 15172564 Go Terps said:
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We're about to pay him $6M-$9M a year more than what we probably could have signed him for after we traded for him.
It may very well have been a stupid trade, but I think those numbers are silly
The numbers being thrown around for Williams in 2018 were $11M-$13M.
The trade was dumb, but failing to sign him immediately after was absolutely idiotic.
Not reaching an agreement with him before making the trade was idiotic. Once the trade was done, he held all the chips
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In comment 15172571 eric2425ny said:
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In comment 15172568 Andy in Boston said:
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dead money has nothing to do with you can sign and not sign.
Of course it does. It’s being deducted from our cap number for this year. We are eating 4.7 million for Tate, 6.5 million for Solder (presuming he is cut), 2.8 million for Baker, and 2.5 for Zietler. That’s 16.5 million of cap room lost for 2021
No it doesn't.. Dead money comes from paying money out for a player not there but said player would have cost us so much more if he stayed! We aren't (the fans) paying the money out. All we care about is cap space and being able to afford the players we want.
Thats a really horrible way to look at dead cap space...
Agreed, let’s make it simple. At this point (assuming Solder is a post June 1st cut) we are paying out 16.5 million dollars that hits this years cap to a player that doesn’t exist.
That’s 9% of this years salary cap paid to no one. That’s pretty bad. It’s more hurtful this year with the reduced COVID cap.
Outside of locking him up for pennies on the dollar I suspect nothing will make some happy. The guy bet on himself and won, it happens.
+1, this is not the area to criticize DG. That was a good trade.
What are you talking about? If he would have signed for $11 to $14 mill per year both he and the Giants he would have done so. He wanted a hell of a lot more money. He was offered $16, IIRC.
You are starting to make things up to fit your narrative even moreso than in the past.
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In comment 15172564 Go Terps said:
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We're about to pay him $6M-$9M a year more than what we probably could have signed him for after we traded for him.
It may very well have been a stupid trade, but I think those numbers are silly
The numbers being thrown around for Williams in 2018 were $11M-$13M.
The trade was dumb, but failing to sign him immediately after was absolutely idiotic.
The trade was not dumb. What he did was the only way to guarantee control over LW.
Not coming to an agreement on a long term deal is dumb, but acquiring the guy who’s been the best defensive player on the team the moment he walked into the locker room wasn’t dumb.
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In comment 15172564 Go Terps said:
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We're about to pay him $6M-$9M a year more than what we probably could have signed him for after we traded for him.
It may very well have been a stupid trade, but I think those numbers are silly
The numbers being thrown around for Williams in 2018 were $11M-$13M.
The trade was dumb, but failing to sign him immediately after was absolutely idiotic.
Incredible assumptions. And by the way, 2018 was 3 years ago. Contracts have gone up since then!! It also takes two to tango.
But I’m sure DG didn’t want to sign Lw to a cheaper deal last year. Christ almighty...
When did this happen?
Williams bet on himself. Did the Giants offer him a deal? Maybe. But he didn’t sign it. You can’t blame that on the Giants.
LW didn't have a great year in 2019. With the Jets or us. At best, it was an ordinary year.
And I think a deal could have been had in November or December. No insight there, just a hunch.
But here's the thing. It's pretty damn clear to me that Team LW understood the league comps better than Gettleman. They absolutely saw the Grady Jarrett and Jurrell Casey contracts and knew the baseline starting point was going to be at least $16M+.
And I would bet a bag of donuts, a hot pretzel and a hot dog that DG thought he could land Team LW for $12M+.
So my guess is Team LW would have settled for $17M in 2019. But now? They are big game hunting at $22-23M. And that's a big miscalc by DG. Big...
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In comment 15172569 Bill in UT said:
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In comment 15172564 Go Terps said:
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We're about to pay him $6M-$9M a year more than what we probably could have signed him for after we traded for him.
It may very well have been a stupid trade, but I think those numbers are silly
The numbers being thrown around for Williams in 2018 were $11M-$13M.
The trade was dumb, but failing to sign him immediately after was absolutely idiotic.
Not reaching an agreement with him before making the trade was idiotic. Once the trade was done, he held all the chips
Bingo, and that's one of the reasons trading for him made no sense. Any agent worth a damn would recognize that the GM of a losing team who dealt draft picks for a pending free agent would be desperate to keep him, which meant at minimum Williams was looking at the guaranteed money that comes with the franchise tag.
As a free agent, Williams may have been looking at something like $12-14 million per, and perhaps $25-30 million guaranteed over 3 years. Instead the Giants are going to pay him a minimum of $34 million for 2 years.
The "bet on himself" Williams made wasn't even that big of a risk. He got $16 million in 2020, even if he was a disappointment it's likely he could have found a deal for himself to make what he passed up in a longer deal.
Williams and his agent could not have played this better.
...but 2020 saw no substantial growth from Jones
now they're in the 8th worst cap situation ($8M over cap)
...and draft outside the top-10
any actual plan here if the goal is to win a Super Bowl during the QB rookie window?
Link - ( New Window )
As far as I can tell, Kevin Abrams’s impact on the team’s fortunes has been very close to nil.
Oh we are in the 8th worst cap situation for 2021? That can change in about 7 seconds when we make a few more cuts and restructures, and our cap situation is great for 2022 and beyond.
You’re just pissed because we didn’t make the playoffs last year when you thought we would win 2 games. Relax dude.
Oh we are in the 8th worst cap situation for 2021? That can change in about 7 seconds when we make a few more cuts and restructures, and our cap situation is great for 2022 and beyond.
You’re just pissed because we didn’t make the playoffs last year when you thought we would win 2 games. Relax dude.
Are you really suggesting your research process is more rigorous than Warren Sharp?
I’d hate to see the team that shook ryan’s optimism.
Looking at NFC East, Philly has 40, WFT 13, Dallas 9
You are right that ours will go up once they sort out what to do with Solder
Yes but the giants have the added bonus of also lacking talent
The team will be a playoff team and a contender if Jones makes a big progression. We have the space to sign guys to help him out. If he doesn’t improve, we won’t be good. Pretty simple as that.
Do we have 70M of space like some of these teams? No, we don’t. Because we signed some defensive studs who are young and are a part of the future.
I still have no idea why anyone on planet earth, never mind the Giants ownership, thought Gettleman deserved to return.
They've been a train wreck. Joe Judge hopefully is a keeper, but nearly everything else is a train wreck.
Holes everywhere, 3 years and 3 top 6 picks later.
We need new blood. The presser really was alarming.
We need new blood. The presser really was alarming.
Make that outside blood. Enough of this BS 'Giants family'. We need someone with no previous ties to this organization to come in. I'm also hoping JJ takes control over more of the personnel decisions. I have faith in him.
We need new blood. The presser really was alarming.
Other than the ridiculous statements about “getting there” and being “ok” if the NYG aren’t real contenders at any point in Jones’s rookie deal, what else was alarming?
And remember, nobody detests Dave more than me on this site, so I don’t want to be thought of as a DG apologist...
The team will be a playoff team and a contender if Jones makes a big progression. We have the space to sign guys to help him out. If he doesn’t improve, we won’t be good. Pretty simple as that.
Do we have 70M of space like some of these teams? No, we don’t. Because we signed some defensive studs who are young and are a part of the future.
I often agree with you on here Ryan, but I don’t really see us being able to make many moves this year. Can they? Sure, if they restructure a bunch of deals. But based on the press conference yesterday, Gettleman seems to prefer “flat” deals which means he isn’t keen on backloading, etc. Unless he’s blowing smoke, that means we aren’t going to be all that active in FA this year.
I think he has done an ok job drafting, and his FA moves last year were solid, but the FA moves before that were pretty fucking awful if we are being real here. Solder was a total bust, Tate was almost as bad but not quite as expensive, and then you get into the Dion Lewis’ and Jonathan Stewart’s.
This is year 4 of the rebuild, it’s time to start winning some games now. No more sub .500 seasons.
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It’s become almost impossible to defend Gettleman at this point.
We need new blood. The presser really was alarming.
Make that outside blood. Enough of this BS 'Giants family'. We need someone with no previous ties to this organization to come in. I'm also hoping JJ takes control over more of the personnel decisions. I have faith in him.
I’m thinking the guy they recently hired who worked with Judge in New England might be the heir at GM. It cannot be Abrams. The contracts he writes up and his cap management are absolutely abhorrent.
Is he? He is far more outlandish than needed. Terps has good points that get clouded by his irrational hatred of Daniel Jones, for one. Then he makes comments like above about the Giants could have signed LW for $11-$14 mill right after the trade.
When you rail against everything, then it is time to move on to a place that meets your personal views.
As far as DG, in my view there is Ozzie Newsome, then there is everyone, else. Very few GMs are right all the time. Very few are right 60% of the time. Yeah, I am not a big fan of DG, but it is not like there are lots of great people out there. There just aren't. No doubt there were so real headscratchers and Stewart was the biggest - guy did nothing. Solder deal was a bad one too, but at least he had play time left in his body(unlike Stewart) even if his head was not there and remember he was rated the 2nd best OL FA after Norwell(who has recently apparently imploded too).
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about the cap every single year. In reality we are in the best cap shape we’ve been in in a long time.
The team will be a playoff team and a contender if Jones makes a big progression. We have the space to sign guys to help him out. If he doesn’t improve, we won’t be good. Pretty simple as that.
Do we have 70M of space like some of these teams? No, we don’t. Because we signed some defensive studs who are young and are a part of the future.
I often agree with you on here Ryan, but I don’t really see us being able to make many moves this year. Can they? Sure, if they restructure a bunch of deals. But based on the press conference yesterday, Gettleman seems to prefer “flat” deals which means he isn’t keen on backloading, etc. Unless he’s blowing smoke, that means we aren’t going to be all that active in FA this year.
I think he has done an ok job drafting, and his FA moves last year were solid, but the FA moves before that were pretty fucking awful if we are being real here. Solder was a total bust, Tate was almost as bad but not quite as expensive, and then you get into the Dion Lewis’ and Jonathan Stewart’s.
This is year 4 of the rebuild, it’s time to start winning some games now. No more sub .500 seasons.
But has he really drafted well? Name me the guy he’s drafted who you think is on track to being top 5 at their position? Barkley was a ridiculous pick whose long term viability is a legitimate question given the demands that position puts on a player’s knees. And remember, Dave has drafted high each year he’s been here.
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But I find he's more right than wrong.
Is he? He is far more outlandish than needed. Terps has good points that get clouded by his irrational hatred of Daniel Jones, for one. Then he makes comments like above about the Giants could have signed LW for $11-$14 mill right after the trade.
When you rail against everything, then it is time to move on to a place that meets your personal views.
As far as DG, in my view there is Ozzie Newsome, then there is everyone, else. Very few GMs are right all the time. Very few are right 60% of the time. Yeah, I am not a big fan of DG, but it is not like there are lots of great people out there. There just aren't. No doubt there were so real headscratchers and Stewart was the biggest - guy did nothing. Solder deal was a bad one too, but at least he had play time left in his body(unlike Stewart) even if his head was not there and remember he was rated the 2nd best OL FA after Norwell(who has recently apparently imploded too).
While I don’t often agree with Terps his extreme glass half empty take on the Giants provides balance and entertainment lol.
The organization is still operating in the past . If he’s made some improvements , they have been small , incremental types. But the roster is still in bad shape . The Defense has most of what it needs . But the Offense is lacking at WR, TE & OL. Plus the Gold Jacket RB keeps getting no-contact injuries .
And , yeah , yesterday’s presser did not inspire confidence . I’ll leave it at that .
From your lips to God's ear. Now watch Chris Mara be named the next GM, Haha.
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I definitely think O’Brien is the next GM. A pretty quiet hire who is familiar with how the Patriots are run. They can get him in the building and then elevate him to GM. Shared NE ties with Judge and he’s only 42.
From your lips to God's ear. Now watch Chris Mara be named the next GM, Haha.
Oh God, Fredo Mara. Will Chris Cuomo be the new Director of Communications?
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In comment 15172666 Danny Kanell said:
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It’s become almost impossible to defend Gettleman at this point.
We need new blood. The presser really was alarming.
Make that outside blood. Enough of this BS 'Giants family'. We need someone with no previous ties to this organization to come in. I'm also hoping JJ takes control over more of the personnel decisions. I have faith in him.
I’m thinking the guy they recently hired who worked with Judge in New England might be the heir at GM. It cannot be Abrams. The contracts he writes up and his cap management are absolutely abhorrent.
I doubt Abrahms will be the next GM. I know there is a lot of hand-wringing about it, but I don't think we'll see him in that role here.
But his contract structures have not been poor. The players they have signed have been.
A symbol of the Mara Way,or whichever words you chose to describe it that you think are so clever.You can call it whatever you want,just remember to throw eggs at that symbol constantly,you'll be ok.
People seem awfully sure that Judge is going to somehow deliver us from the buffoonery of Getty. But I’m not so sure of that. I like Judge, he’s promising so far, but he’s just the head coach. It simply isn’t very likely that Judge is some big swinging dick behind the scenes puppet master who’s telling Getty how to avoid his foolish impulses. More likely, to me at least, the Jints Central crowd is correct and the Giants clown car is being driven by John Mara with Getty his willing navigator mapping a trip to the Yale Bowl and a 1970’s styled team.
People seem awfully sure that Judge is going to somehow deliver us from the buffoonery of Getty. But I’m not so sure of that. I like Judge, he’s promising so far, but he’s just the head coach. It simply isn’t very likely that Judge is some big swinging dick behind the scenes puppet master who’s telling Getty how to avoid his foolish impulses. More likely, to me at least, the Jints Central crowd is correct and the Giants clown car is being driven by John Mara with Getty his willing navigator mapping a trip to the Yale Bowl and a 1970’s styled team.
Lol, I’m picturing that last sentence playing out in real life. The car is probably swerving in and out of lanes as John and Dave yell out directions to Chris Mara.
Yes, this one is a head scratcher, Terps has been more right than anyone about the state of the franchise over the past 5 years. And every year we get the inevitable threads as to this being the Giants year they turn the corner and then the inevitable threads as to the excuses. I’d like to just see some actual winning.
Facing reality is quite difficult for a lot of people here
Terps used to hone in on a few precise factually well supported and non emotionally stated unpopular but never speculative assumption based critiques and be right about them. And wrong on several-like all of us.
Operative words in that paragraph are:
Few
Factually well supported
Never Speculative
Unemotional
Thats true of a lot of our posting for:
- We want to know now what only time reveals
- Losing each year is emotional
- The media is a lot worse at getting the record straight
- The org used to leak more often
- We know less about its internal dynamics then we used to know ...even though current internal dynamics might be much better
- We forgot the basic rule of probability always comes to the fore. If you have a two sided and untampered coin and it comes up tails 49 times in a row the probability it comes up tails again is 50%. The past 1s quite often not prologue given the game and the rules of the NFL. More than any other sport it is rigged to come out 50/50 for franchises over time. And that's what happens to the majority of 32 teams ovr a decade or even two.
imo, its an unwatchable, unreadable and undiscussable couple of years for being a NYG fan. Matching the same in the world outside over the same time frame.
Just not a time to listen to anyone else about the NYG and watch with patience or fill the time in other ways.
Why add to it by getting upset with other fans? My own boredom, frustration and intolerance of the stupid and the endless acting out around me on many a social and sports issue is the answer in my case.
Its certainly not Hammer Time. Its more like Hermit Time than any period I can remember before.
Imo
But no way anyone was giving Ryan a 3 year, 30 mil deal with the current market/cap situation around the league.
Giants could have easily waited this thing out and signed him for less.
As for Gano,I'm not sure he would have gotten a deal that made him the 2nd highest paid kicker in the league on the open market. Prob could've gotten away with offering less.
Aside from the Bradberry/Martinez signings, and signing Ryan/Golden the first time around, DG has been awful in Free Agency.
- Solder
- Stewart
- Tate
- Toilolo
- Curtis Riley
- Omameh
- Bethea
- Ogletree (trade)
etc etc- he has less than a 20% hit rate on Pro Personel transactions
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The numbers being thrown around for Williams in 2018 were $11M-$13M.
The trade was dumb, but failing to sign him immediately after was absolutely idiotic.
Incredible assumptions. And by the way, 2018 was 3 years ago. Contracts have gone up since then!! It also takes two to tango.
But I’m sure DG didn’t want to sign Lw to a cheaper deal last year. Christ almighty...
Yeah, but he should have signed him to a cheap deal in 2018, a full year before he was even on the team.
;-)
Probably DG too...
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any of you can do it. We’re giving out props for that?
Facing reality is quite difficult for a lot of people here
This team could go 0-16 and there'd still be some who think the team wasn't all that bad.
Oh we are in the 8th worst cap situation for 2021? That can change in about 7 seconds when we make a few more cuts and restructures, and our cap situation is great for 2022 and beyond.
You’re just pissed because we didn’t make the playoffs last year when you thought we would win 2 games. Relax dude.
Listen I dont think Warren Sharp is the gospel, but the guy does his HW. It's all he does, like it's his career. Like analytic people in anything**, has a tendency to be the smartest guy in the room. What research could he have done to unearth that the giants are in good position for the next 2-3 years?? What "research" uncovers that....Outside of just a pure glass half full POV? I've read his articles and he's been spot on about the giants direction and results since 2017.
Our current cap situation can change in 7 seconds, however our 2022 and beyond cap situation looks great? What in the hell lol. If it wasn't great, we could change it in 7 seconds so why does it matter. That future cap changes if we start signing guys (with all that space we can create quickly) and restructure/extend guys.
The OC is incompetent and looks like he can be pulled after 2 bad games to start the season. Which brings me to my question, why the hell is he even here. So we can have Kitchens take over an offense thats not his and then install his the following off season? It's all just frustrating.
Reading the tea leaves i'm not sure how your research shows such a great window. Judge gets alot out of his players but i'm not sure how you can look at the composition of the roster the past 4 years and feel confident.
I dont even blame DG. He is who he is. It starts from higher up. If EA and Mara don't offer DG the job in 2018, is he the GM of a team right now? Honest question.
Terps used to hone in on a few precise factually well supported and non emotionally stated unpopular but never speculative assumption based critiques and be right about them. And wrong on several-like all of us.
Operative words in that paragraph are:
Few
Factually well supported
Never Speculative
Unemotional
Thats true of a lot of our posting for:
- We want to know now what only time reveals
- Losing each year is emotional
- The media is a lot worse at getting the record straight
- The org used to leak more often
- We know less about its internal dynamics then we used to know ...even though current internal dynamics might be much better
- We forgot the basic rule of probability always comes to the fore. If you have a two sided and untampered coin and it comes up tails 49 times in a row the probability it comes up tails again is 50%. The past 1s quite often not prologue given the game and the rules of the NFL. More than any other sport it is rigged to come out 50/50 for franchises over time. And that's what happens to the majority of 32 teams ovr a decade or even two.
imo, its an unwatchable, unreadable and undiscussable couple of years for being a NYG fan. Matching the same in the world outside over the same time frame.
Just not a time to listen to anyone else about the NYG and watch with patience or fill the time in other ways.
Why add to it by getting upset with other fans? My own boredom, frustration and intolerance of the stupid and the endless acting out around me on many a social and sports issue is the answer in my case.
Its certainly not Hammer Time. Its more like Hermit Time than any period I can remember before.
Imo
Bill,
I've heard your theory of everything reverting to the mean before. You make it seem like the whole thing is just luck. And, I do agree that over a long period of time, i.e. across eras, this is true. But, in football, no the 50th toss is not 50/50. If that were true then the dynasties that we have seen, the the 60s Packers, 70s Steelers, the 80s/90s 49ers, 90s Cowboys, back to back wins by the Pack and the Broncos in the 90s, and of course the 20 year sustained excellence of the Patriots would be multi sigma events. It is unreasonable to expect such multi sigma events recur so often.
Individuals make a difference. When you put together a group of people who are superior, you can achieve excellence and sustain for a period of time. It requires Ownership, GM, Scouting (and other front office positions), Coaches and Players. The leaders that are capable of recognizing the right talent up and down the organization is the key. Such leaders are uncommon, but clearly not impossible and what they create is not random and not accidental. The right leaders are capable assembling great organizations, and do it as a repeatable process. This means that the next flip is not random, it is skewed toward the exceptional leaders and organizations.
As fans we want the Giants to have that leader, and be that organization. It starts with ownership... In some cases, perhaps the owner is that leader. However, I think most of the time the owner gets lucky by hiring the right leader. When those leaders retire or move on from the team, yes that team usually reverts to the norm. They go through periods of being a bad team, and average team, and even perhaps even a wining team for short periods. When a team lacks the exceptional leader, the results are a coin flip.
Some are critical of the team, because we believe that the Giants don't have such a leader. We believe the team should be moving on from the current group until we find such a leader. Judge may be such a leader, but he will have to grow into it, we don't know yet. Clearly at Gettleman has not been that leader, and 3 years in, and at age 70+ it is highly unlikely that he will ever become such a leader.
I analyzed the ten and 20 year W-L record of all 32 teams.
Average W-L over 10 years: 51.7%
Middle 45-55% of average W-L record for 32 teams showed that it fit in the first deviation around the average for 20 of 32 teams.
The top team average over ten years was a significant outlier from the second best ten year W-L record.
It was the Pats at 69% as of two years ago, The Packers were second at a winning percentage a full 10% lower over ten years.
Only 4 teams of 32 escaped the first deviation of 45-55 by averaging between 55-60% over ten years.
About 50% of draft and UFDA selections make it more than one year and that includes practice squads, so less than 50% of all drafted by all 32 teams make a starting play in year one.
Roster turnover averages in the low 20% on all 32 teams.
Average guy who makes one of the 32 teams plays four years.
Success in the NFL is "rewarded" back towards the average by dint of lower draft slots, lower wire waiver status and a harder schedule so that getting out of the middle hump of salmon jumping the falls is very hard to do and sustain over 10 years.
Coaching turnover is very high, with the average time with a team for all coaching positions being 3 years or less.
The cap drives the herd down the center well pounded trail of 45-55% with a real rut at 51.2% W-L record
So is that a theory as you dismiss it or is that a very well supported theory loaded with actual facts from different ways to support the "theory"?
Is there alternative theory based on better facts?
Oh.
Sorry.
So how many long serving GM's do not have tons of things their fan base can claim was a "mistake"? Answer: Pretty much all of them.
How many teams had long standing GM's who got and stayed over the 55% percentage for a substantial number of years?
Three
What is expected yet statistically supported GM performance?
( And this is not an endorsement of DG. I consider the success stories of DG as largely not yet known or highly correlated to Judge and his staffs time that overlapped DG's)
I do think DG and or Judge and or Petit began and continued a significant change in scouting process, practices performance demands and personnel. As you know if human selection is 10% better with a 20-25% annual turnover rate it takes years for the total pool of human capital ( which upon selection requires constant development and often a momentum stalling strategy or organizational change within the life cycle of a 4 year cycle) to improve enough at Price/Performance compared to average industry performance for the change to show up on the operating ratios and business results.
So yeah, the performance waterfall purposely and continuously tends to a 50/50% league average 10 year track record for 85% of its 32 teams,
But its schedule makers and the pace of injuries offset by the unsustainable jumps by a few teams make each year produces a funnel of "still possibly in it" series of contests late enough into each season to maximize Advertising rates in the major metro markets of the country.
That, not the game on the field, is the intent of the NFL and its owenrs...to produce a system that entertains with up and down intensity and drama in as many of its 32 markets as possible.
We fans want wins. The business the sport is in wants ad rates
But while he made many mistakes his first two years, doesn’t mean he can’t make the correct moves going forward.
In any event he s still there, so I hope he does.
the fans and players want lots of wins
the owner designed collective league rules are designed to produce lots of efforts, stories, narratives and near misses.
the fo wants wins but has to live within the rules.
the NFL is was designed the way baseball was...that produces a New York, Chicago, St Loius and California heavy fandom revenue via attendance
The NF audience goal is 32 metros with revenues from tv then attendance and finally 32 variations of merchandise.
- This despite weak NFCE competition (div. winners have combined 26-22 record over 3 years with one playoff win)
- Unable to stabilize OL with player additions
- Still paying for free agent mistakes from Yrs 1 & 2 in 2021
- Extremely tight cap situation in 2021 despite overall weak roster and QB still under rookie deal
- Tenuous situation at best with 3rd year QB
That should be enough to set the stage for support or not...
We need new blood. The presser really was alarming.
Uhh sure bc everyone has been calm and waiting to see what he can do.. Giant fans suck lol
He's been on the job for three years, dipshit. We've seen very clearly what he can do.
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Uhh sure bc everyone has been calm and waiting to see what he can do.. Giant fans suck lol
He's been on the job for three years, dipshit. We've seen very clearly what he can do.
Bob Papa, 2030: 'In case you haven't noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven't, the Giants have managed to win a few here and there, and are threatening to climb out of the cellar.'
Sometimes I sit and yearn...
- This despite weak NFCE competition (div. winners have combined 26-22 record over 3 years with one playoff win)
- Unable to stabilize OL with player additions
- Still paying for free agent mistakes from Yrs 1 & 2 in 2021
- Extremely tight cap situation in 2021 despite overall weak roster and QB still under rookie deal
- Tenuous situation at best with 3rd year QB
That should be enough to set the stage for support or not...
Much much simpler break down -took over a piss poor team very non competitive filled with a bunch of mercenaries that laughed when Eli got benched.. He took over a chickenshit roster Built by Reeech and Ross and that had to be gutted. He took it down to the studs. Schumer helped find Dan I like Dan. His first year showed what he can become needs time
Ya bitched about Eli nonstop while his GM failed him repeatedly - Coach Coughlin said it best Eli its not your fault! Ya bitched about Coughlin non stop -face it some of ya are just bitches.. lol
Ya bitched about Odell Ya bitched about Lenny -told you he was a beast need time boom Ya bitched about Snax and JJ ya bitched ya bitched
Sold off most of those dip shits including the great Odell for what he got everyone bitched -the results prove he was right.
First try for 2 yrs he Listened to his coaches Schumer and Betcher and added and kept players they knew or wanted -it didnt work out -they all got fired and replaced and deserved to be. Everyone of the guys your bitching about they knew and requested. Solder was the only kid on the block available the other OL got signed right away bc they knew the Giants were going to offer big contract. tough spot but could we really go another year wi Flowers? LOL
Now Try #2 -New sheriff in town Judge has a plan lets see how it works out in the meantime talent is much improved, younger - tougher and baller. I watch everything this team is going to rise quickly. This is a winning combination. I like young Dan. He needs time. Going to be good winning QB.
Lastly they Keep adding coachable talent and id recommend you stop comparing this team to other teams. some teams have talent to build w in the beginning some dont -this one didnt.
Dallas is fucked Dak is not a champion QB with that thin D, Eagles imploding DC needs a QB all bets are off if the get Dashauon or Russell. I like the D we are building, I like the team we are building I know, especially in football It takes time to build a champion.
Ohhh that felt good.
Can't even win 8 games. Imagine thinking about building a champion.
The debt for all these mistakes inevitably comes due.
Gettleman said yesterday: "I’m not going to put a win number on it, I’m just not going to go there. I think we’re just about there. Talking to you guys, you’ve alluded to some of our needs and I believe we’re going to get there."
What "we're going to get there" means is anyone's guess.
$6-9M more per year? If he was willing to sign for $16M per year last year, they likely would've reached an agreement (he earned $16.1M under the tag). So you think he's getting somewhere in the $23-26M range? That would mean he tops Aaron Donald which seems unlikely...
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In comment 15172564 Go Terps said:
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We're about to pay him $6M-$9M a year more than what we probably could have signed him for after we traded for him.
It may very well have been a stupid trade, but I think those numbers are silly
The numbers being thrown around for Williams in 2018 were $11M-$13M.
The trade was dumb, but failing to sign him immediately after was absolutely idiotic.
Anyone that thought LW was signing for $11M is a f****** moron. The optimistic (and realistic) case was for just below the franchise tag level.
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I like the team we are building I know, especially in football It takes time to build a champion.
Can't even win 8 games. Imagine thinking about building a champion.
The twists some people do to defend him. 15 wins in 3 seasons! 15!
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I like the team we are building I know, especially in football It takes time to build a champion.
Can't even win 8 games. Imagine thinking about building a champion.
Dipshits said the same thing when Coughlin took over and before that Parcells.. but yeah its not like the Franchise hasnt built and won 4 Championships before right?
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Uhh sure bc everyone has been calm and waiting to see what he can do.. Giant fans suck lol
He's been on the job for three years, dipshit. We've seen very clearly what he can do.
Greg your what we call smart stupid -now sell me your shares sucker.
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Williams bet on himself. Did the Giants offer him a deal? Maybe. But he didn’t sign it. You can’t blame that on the Giants.
LW didn't have a great year in 2019. With the Jets or us. At best, it was an ordinary year.
And I think a deal could have been had in November or December. No insight there, just a hunch.
But here's the thing. It's pretty damn clear to me that Team LW understood the league comps better than Gettleman. They absolutely saw the Grady Jarrett and Jurrell Casey contracts and knew the baseline starting point was going to be at least $16M+.
And I would bet a bag of donuts, a hot pretzel and a hot dog that DG thought he could land Team LW for $12M+.
So my guess is Team LW would have settled for $17M in 2019. But now? They are big game hunting at $22-23M. And that's a big miscalc by DG. Big...
The Giants had no reason to go to $17M per since they could get him for $16M last year! And if the Giants had signed LW for $17M per the same people criticizing him for not doing that now would've been bashing him for doing it...
Dipshits said the same thing when Coughlin took over and before that Parcells.. but yeah its not like the Franchise hasnt built and won 4 Championships before right?
When Parcells or Coughlin walks thru the door let me know.
Greg your what we call smart stupid -now sell me your shares sucker.
Dupe, dupe, dupe, dupe of Earl, dupe dupe, dupe of Earl
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Dipshits said the same thing when Coughlin took over and before that Parcells.. but yeah its not like the Franchise hasnt built and won 4 Championships before right?
When Parcells or Coughlin walks thru the door let me know.
I think he did. I think Judge is going to be the next Great one. I will enjoy watching him. Besides his understanding of the game to an almost psychotic level. His game film breakdowns are amazing to watch. He has all the intangibles too. I’m a big fan of Judge
That's a wildly incorrect statement. It absolutely does. It counts the same as cap hits for players who are actually on your roster.
You know that's not true. This dead money is the consequence of money poorly spent.
That's not fine shape.
There will be some contracts by 2022 that might become regrettable (as much as we all love Bradberry, we also loved Jackrabbit after his first year, for example), though I agree there aren't many potential albatrosses on the roster. There also isn't very much talent on the roster, so this shouldn't be a feather in anyone's cap.
I get that it's infuriating to be cap-stressed when the team has been very bad for years. However this is a weird year to be upset with that, with the cap actually going down significantly. The lower cap, in turn, forces teams to cut pricey veterans. Cutting veterans results in dead money. I don't think it's simple. Am I wrong?
Under $10M.
Shummer's buy in of Solder and Tate.....should not saddled Judge....hopefully....Judge stabilize the coaching staff will minimize dead money
We have had a lot of dead money every single year of DG's tenure. Part of it is due to changing directions, but part of it is due to bad FA signings (for any scheme).
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In comment 15172568 Andy in Boston said:
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dead money has nothing to do with you can sign and not sign.
Of course it does. It’s being deducted from our cap number for this year. We are eating 4.7 million for Tate, 6.5 million for Solder (presuming he is cut), 2.8 million for Baker, and 2.5 for Zietler. That’s 16.5 million of cap room lost for 2021
No it doesn't.. Dead money comes from paying money out for a player not there but said player would have cost us so much more if he stayed! We aren't (the fans) paying the money out. All we care about is cap space and being able to afford the players we want.
This is such a simplistic and poor take.
The players cost more if they stay, but they also still need to be replaced in addition to the dead money. So you either go find premium FAs, which becomes more difficult as you rack up dead money that erodes your cap space; you go find bargain FAs, which is a difficult task to do well regardless of your cap situation; or you draft replacements, which deprives you of an opportunity to meaningfully improve your team through the draft because you're using your draft picks to cycle through a repetitive process (we saw Reese do this with defensive tackles for years, and it contributed to an overall decline to the roster).
The much simpler solution is to identify and sign free agents who are deservingly worth more to you on the roster than they are in dead money.
As far as I can tell, Kevin Abrams’s impact on the team’s fortunes has been very close to nil.
This is accurate, assuming it isn't his decision to give guaranteed money to the fungible players who will likely occupy roster slots 40-53 (who are all candidates for in-season release and re-sign based on roster needs, and therefore can account for dead money on the fly). It still aggravates me that we ever gave guaranteed money to Alex Tanney, the poster boy for a fungible backup QB.
And it's like the Globetrotters vs. the Generals every time.
But one thing they do well is restructure/extend good players before that voidable year approaches. I hate saying this as a Giants fan, but the Cowboys definitely do at least a slightly better job of managing the cap (and understanding allocation of cap resources) than the Giants. Of course, that may all blow up in their face now due to the way they handled the Dak negotiations, which cost them a ton of money.
I wonder why we would do this analysis on a 20 year window? I do think what bill's data strongly suggests is that perhaps picking your leaders is more of the mean reversion problem, not necessarily the rules. It would be hard to argue against certain leaders getting more effective results, I'm not sure if the argument was arguing both against the effectiveness of leaders and choosing leaders, suggested neither or perhaps you'd agree that it is leader choice that is the hardest part.
In terms of looking on a 20 year horizon though. I'm not sure I agree with that as a good analysis framework to validate the necessity of choosing good leaders. Most data science projects I've worked on with hard to predict data and high competition your validation curves are going to reflect the inclusion of more data as not particularly helpful. Most highly competitive industries evolve quickly and as technology has advanced so too has the speed of that evolution and the pressure to innovate.
So in saying that I think that bill and McL are both right I'd also ask myself the question, how do you end up in the higher end of the distribution vs. the lower end? I'd argue by identifying poor leaders and getting them out of the building quickly. And I'd say that's the job which the Giants have been the worst at.
It's pretty clear that DG was out of touch with the modern NFL two years in. If you want to be in the higher end of the mean you have to be willing to cut bait with someone like that as they did with Shurmur. I'm honestly not sure why Chris Mara gets to keep his job. Let him be on the "board" but why is he drawing a salary that could go to a more innovative thinker? We always hear how the Giants don't have unlimited dollars to spend on something like advanced technology but we can pay him?
It's an increasingly popular line around here how comfortable the Giants are with mediocrity and I think that's the biggest problem. When I did talk to people close to the Giants org about their tech programs they were very happy to report how in the middle they were. It absolutely seemed like as long as they were average they felt they were fine. In a talent market like New York with uncapped spending on front office positions you can certainly gain an advantage by shooting to be #1 that the Giants don't seem to have much interest in.
It's no coincidence that other great talent markets like SF and Boston have top tech teams.
There is a difference between the inevitability of mean reversion and feeling cozy in the idea that you'll revert to the mean. That coziness is how you end up in the bottom of that distribution and while not a huge difference in a statistical manner, I'd much prefer to watch a 55% win rate team than a 45% win rate team. I don't want to feel like the team I follow is saying to themselves hey, who cares if we are at 47% as long as we get to be around the people we like.
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I definitely think O’Brien is the next GM. A pretty quiet hire who is familiar with how the Patriots are run. They can get him in the building and then elevate him to GM. Shared NE ties with Judge and he’s only 42.
From your lips to God's ear. Now watch Chris Mara be named the next GM, Haha.
Part of me would welcome that. At least then he'd be on full display as either competent or not; as of now, we all just know that he bailed on the draft to watch his horse run in the Derby.
It's at least honest.
Sure, we can all hand out 10-6 predictions every year and pretend like nothing is wrong at 1925 Giants Drive, but what does that accomplish other than another year of irrelevance?
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In comment 15173023 Gettledogman said:
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Dipshits said the same thing when Coughlin took over and before that Parcells.. but yeah its not like the Franchise hasnt built and won 4 Championships before right?
When Parcells or Coughlin walks thru the door let me know.
I think he did. I think Judge is going to be the next Great one. I will enjoy watching him. Besides his understanding of the game to an almost psychotic level. His game film breakdowns are amazing to watch. He has all the intangibles too. I’m a big fan of Judge
You should change your handle again to incorporate Judge.
But he only kicks FG's. You win by scoring TD's!! We need a dual threat PK for that $$$
The debt for all these mistakes inevitably comes due.
Gettleman said yesterday: "I’m not going to put a win number on it, I’m just not going to go there. I think we’re just about there. Talking to you guys, you’ve alluded to some of our needs and I believe we’re going to get there."
What "we're going to get there" means is anyone's guess.
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dead money has nothing to do with you can sign and not sign.
Of course it does. It’s being deducted from our cap number for this year. We are eating 4.7 million for Tate, 6.5 million for Solder (presuming he is cut), 2.8 million for Baker, and 2.5 for Zietler. That’s 16.5 million of cap room lost for 2021
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In comment 15172569 Bill in UT said:
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In comment 15172564 Go Terps said:
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We're about to pay him $6M-$9M a year more than what we probably could have signed him for after we traded for him.
It may very well have been a stupid trade, but I think those numbers are silly
The numbers being thrown around for Williams in 2018 were $11M-$13M.
The trade was dumb, but failing to sign him immediately after was absolutely idiotic.
The trade was not dumb. What he did was the only way to guarantee control over LW.
Not coming to an agreement on a long term deal is dumb, but acquiring the guy who’s been the best defensive player on the team the moment he walked into the locker room wasn’t dumb.
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Dude was one of the best PK in the league last year.
But he only kicks FG's. You win by scoring TD's!! We need a dual threat PK for that $$$
You make that sound like its within 2 standard deviations because 2 standard deviations would cover about 94.5% of all cases... But that is not the way to apply the standard deviation. You first have to calculate the odds of such an event occurring. If the odds of winning a game were 50% then winning 261 out of 348 would have a probability of of 8.37 x 10^-22. That is an extraordinarily low probability that is beyond a 10 sigma event. In other it doesn't happen unless the coin flips are not 50-50.
Furthermore, the point of football is not to win an individual game, it is to win the last game of the year. By your thinking that would be a 1 in 32 chance every year. Brady-Belichick did it 6 times in 19 years which has odds of 8.67 x 10^-19... Only slightly more probable than the 75% win rate.
In other words, if we assume that winning is just a coin flip, then such an event is unlikely to occur in a million, million, million seasons.
In other words, the individuals matter. Building a great organization matters.
Over to you for the must have last word
Over to you for the must have last word
Perhaps I misunderstood this quote:
- We forgot the basic rule of probability always comes to the fore. If you have a two sided and untampered coin and it comes up tails 49 times in a row the probability it comes up tails again is 50%. The past 1s quite often not prologue given the game and the rules of the NFL. More than any other sport it is rigged to come out 50/50 for franchises over time. And that's what happens to the majority of 32 teams ovr a decade or even two.
Agreed that the past is not ALWAYS prologue, especially less so for teams that have high organizational turnover at key positions. Given the probabilities of seeing events of sustained exceptionalism as I enumerated over the decades, topped off by the extreme exceptionalism of the Patriots, would you agree that building a great organization matters? That when you have a great organization, past is more than likely prologue?