In 7-year chunks, here are the average number of RBs taken in the first round for the years:
1979 - 1985: 4.3**
1986 - 1992: 4.0
1993 - 1999: 3.0
2000 - 2006: 3.1
2007 - 2013: 2.6
2014 - 2020: 1.4
**To be read: There was an average of 4.3 running backs taken per Draft Year for the 7-Year period 1979 - 1985.
The data are even more stark when you consider that -- as the average number of backs selected decreased, the number of teams selecting in Round One increased (due to league expansion). Thus, on a percentage basis, the fall-off in RBs selected in Round One is probably more dramatic.
Source: I tallied these data utilizing Wikipedia as the primary source.
Round One.
Next to taking a punter, or being a team that is a perennial SB contender, placing a bet on a first round RB is a very dumb investment.
What have they won with him? Stanley or Ramsey would have helped the Cowboys more
Yes.
Not equal but very close. 4th is a little lower...
That is a way better use of resources than what Dallas did with Elliott - draft him high and then pay him... horrible. Cautionary tale for the Giants with Barkley. Hopefully Barkley looks great in 2021 and creates a trade market.
100%. And then they compounded the dumb by re-signing Zeke.
Unfortunately, that sounds true...
Mara basically implied that at his State of the Union in January.
Goog's posted a great Gettleman quote the other day where DG cites that football and winning hasn't really changed since 1935. And running the ball to win is basically one of the three rails to winning.
And I'd bet Mara agrees wholeheartedly. Which means Team SB will also back up the Brinks Truck...
By Draft Year in the First Round:
7 RBs
1982
6RBs
1981
1987
1990
5 RBs
1979
1989
1995
2000
2008
4 RBs
1980
1983
1986
1998
2006
3 RBs
1985
1988
1993
1996
2001
2004
2005
2009
2010
2012
2018
2 RBs
1991
1992
1994
1997
1999
2002
2003
2007
2015
2017
1 RB
1984
2011
2013
2016
2019
2020
No RBs
2014
McCaffrey had an enormous season in 2019. They scored 340 points and went 5-11. He missed most of 2020, they scored 350 points and went 5-11.
Like Barkley's big 2018, McCaffrey's big 2019 didn't have much effect.
I agree that the short careers and short peaks of most RBs make them a bad investment at the top of the draft.
and intertwined with one another that it is very difficult -- if not impossible -- to tease out the relative importance of one over the other.
But it is clear from the First Round data that the NFL has progressively over time down-played the importance of the running back position.
What that also probably means is that First Round running back talent has most likely fallen into Round Two. And there are numerous recent examples such as Dalvin Cook (#41 overall 2017 Draft); Derrick Henry (#45 overall 2016 Draft); Nick Chubb and Ronald Jones II (#35 and #38 overall 2018 Draft).
The average play league wide that season went for 5.6 yards.
Barkley had nearly 50% of the touches on offense that season. It's no surprise then that the offense wasn't particularly good (23.1 PPG).
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was taken #8 overall and has produced at a very high level for the Panthers. Signed a 4 yr extension with them last year. He did have an injury that cut his season short, though.
McCaffrey had an enormous season in 2019. They scored 340 points and went 5-11. He missed most of 2020, they scored 350 points and went 5-11.
Like Barkley's big 2018, McCaffrey's big 2019 didn't have much effect.
I'm not sure what the correlation is there. You can do the same exercise for some of the top WR's, so it isn't just a thing for RB's.
Unless there's motivation to make it that way...
The average play league wide that season went for 5.6 yards.
Barkley had nearly 50% of the touches on offense that season. It's no surprise then that the offense wasn't particularly good (23.1 PPG).
I'll preference this comment by saying I would have preferred NOT drafting Saquon Barkley, and would have much rather taken Quenton Nelson (with a trade down), or at #2 if need be.
That said, it is nearly impossible to evaluate the "true value" of Saquon Barkley in his rookie year because the Giants roster from 1 - 53 sucked as bad as sucking gets in the NFL.
In other words, Saquon Barkely was an unusual talent on a roster where that talent was not going to really translate into wins.
Had Barkely found himself behind a top tier offensive line (not to mention a balls to the floor defense that kept giving the ball right back to the offense) and I will say straight out that Saquon Barkley would have put up statistics that would have shattered records.
Shattered. And probably a legit shot at the Super Bowl.
Because he didn't produce. And the same excuses were made. Oh that Barkley, he's the greatest, it's that Penn State offensive line that's no good.
Blah blah blah. Excuses are easy. The truly great ones don't need them.
Then again, all comes to DJ.
Then again, all comes to DJ.
I hope we don't see that guy again. If we do the offense is going to stink again.
I want to see Golladay set a record for targets, and Jones run the ball 8-12 times a game. And use Barkley as a receiver.
Because he didn't produce. And the same excuses were made. Oh that Barkley, he's the greatest, it's that Penn State offensive line that's no good.
Blah blah blah. Excuses are easy. The truly great ones don't need them.
It almost sounds like you're blaming Saquon Barkley for the ineptitude of an entire Giants squad led by a terrible Head Coach. No one player was going to make that miserable 2018 team into a winner.
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If '18 Saquon shows up this fall, man...I'm excited.
Then again, all comes to DJ.
I hope we don't see that guy again. If we do the offense is going to stink again.
I want to see Golladay set a record for targets, and Jones run the ball 8-12 times a game. And use Barkley as a receiver.
Huh?? I've never seen 2,000 yards from scrimmage shit upon so much that it is actually spun into being something bad.
Not to mention that the Barkley being referred to above is the return to the dynamic game-breaking player, not a literal translation of his stats
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In comment 15203358 RomanWH said:
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was taken #8 overall and has produced at a very high level for the Panthers. Signed a 4 yr extension with them last year. He did have an injury that cut his season short, though.
McCaffrey had an enormous season in 2019. They scored 340 points and went 5-11. He missed most of 2020, they scored 350 points and went 5-11.
Like Barkley's big 2018, McCaffrey's big 2019 didn't have much effect.
I'm not sure what the correlation is there. You can do the same exercise for some of the top WR's, so it isn't just a thing for RB's.
Unless there's motivation to make it that way...
Well, it's largely because CMac is the center of the offense.
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In comment 15203412 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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If '18 Saquon shows up this fall, man...I'm excited.
Then again, all comes to DJ.
I hope we don't see that guy again. If we do the offense is going to stink again.
I want to see Golladay set a record for targets, and Jones run the ball 8-12 times a game. And use Barkley as a receiver.
Huh?? I've never seen 2,000 yards from scrimmage shit upon so much that it is actually spun into being something bad.
Not to mention that the Barkley being referred to above is the return to the dynamic game-breaking player, not a literal translation of his stats
When it takes 382 plays to get those 2000 yards is it really that great?
2018: 354/1650/4.7/13TDs/71FDs (24th YPG)
2019: 362/1685/4.7/11TDs/89 FDs (19th YPG)
2020: 399/1768/4.4/13TDs/91 FDs (19th YPG)
I’m ambivalent on Barkley — but I think it’s fair to expect an above average run game when you commit resources there and the management believes it’s a among the three most important facets of the game.
Heck, using the logic some of you guys do, if the giants traded for DeAndre Hopkins and got the same amount of production and missed the playoffs, you'd be ripping the ROI.
Getting great production out of a Bengals WR hasn't paid much dividends, right?
So we want Barkley to do good so we can trade him but if that happens it means we will suck?
Haha, alrighty.
So we want Barkley to do good so we can trade him but if that happens it means we will suck?
Haha, alrighty.
They always attract you, don't they?
I'm not trying to give you shit. I just don't know why criticism of Barkley bothers you so much.
It hasn't worked out with him. I don't know what to tell you.
So we want Barkley to do good so we can trade him but if that happens it means we will suck?
Haha, alrighty.
Look, the sport has evolved and a key consequence of that is the RB position. Yet, our so called football "experts" are stuck in 1935 with their strategies on how to win football games...
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I’m learning a lot, haven’t read any of this before.
I'm not trying to give you shit. I just don't know why criticism of Barkley bothers you so much.
It hasn't worked out with him. I don't know what to tell you.
Mainly because this argument could be used for any productive player on a bad team, but very rarely is.
Take any 1st rounder who doesn't have team success and you can spout the same crap. When Deshaun Watson plays on a bad team, his stats are continually referenced positively. When McCaffery and Barkley do it - it is because they aren't impactful and their stats are actually spun to be a negative.
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I’m learning a lot, haven’t read any of this before.
I'm not trying to give you shit. I just don't know why criticism of Barkley bothers you so much.
It hasn't worked out with him. I don't know what to tell you.
It doesn’t. I just roll my eyes at how far you go. You basically said it’s impossible to win with him. I can’t tell if you want him to fail to be right or if you actually want him to come back 100% and get back to scoring TDs.
Also I bet Judge wants to run, stop the run and rush the passer too. Treating GM quotes like some sort of holy grail is strange. He didn’t have a top tier QB when he said it, if we did I bet the quote would be different. Kinda doesn’t mean anything.
I've already been right about it being a bad pick. That horse is out of the barn.
The fact is though, he got hurt very early last season. The team started to build an identity under Judge without him. He hasn’t played much at all under Judge. So many resources have gone to Golladay, Rudolph and most likely another WR in the first round (I’m guessing Smith if available) - it’s just easy to forget about Saquon.
I hope he has a very strong season next year as a multi dimensional player which includes a lot of catches in the backfield and running in space.
He doesn’t pick up the tough yards. He’s not good in short yardage. He’s not good in goal line situations. He can’t block. He’s not great between the tackles.
This is simply putting aside all of the other valid talking points that have been discussed ad nauseum and looking at the player.
In a sense I feel like Engram (who has sucked here) and Barkley are similar. Both seem like they would have a better chance at realizing their potential in different style offense with a different supporting cast.
Way too many drive killing plays the result in 0 to negative yards. He was the league leader in these types of plays in 2018. He was near the bottom of the league in the stat that measures these plays on a percentage basis.
Barkley is electric, he breaks off wildly exciting plays that go for big yards. But far too many bad plays mixed in and that lowers the overall efficiency of the offense resulting in fewer total points.
In short, a guy can gain over 2000 yards from scrimmage, and still be a drag on the team. Looking at total yards and not how he got there is a very flawed approach.
- He’s missed 1/3 of his games and was less effective in many others
- The run game has not been better than average in any year
- The offense has not been better than average in any year
- He’s not a terribly efficient player in the pass game
He’s now going into year 4, off an ACL tear. He’s dead smack in what should be his prime, and statistically there’s a good chance he’s halfway through his career. And the Giants have been terrible every year.
For it to have been a good pick, you’d like the Giants to at least have a few years with a good run game when he’s on the roster, no?
It's not because Barkley's a terrible player...he's not touched by the hand of God, but he's not in the Thomas Lewis/Cedric Jones category either. The tragedy was how the front office failed to understand how that draft was the time to initiate the complete rebuild: new GM, new coach, new QB.
Instead they opted to "load up for another run with Eli". Again.
And the consequences of that absolutely have been tragic.
Barkley as the centerpiece of a Manning renaissance was ridiculous. In the context of keeping Manning and the wasted other moves, bad outcome. I do think there are other scenarios where Barkley is worth the risk. Trading back into the first round and picking a QB for instance.
Remaining at #2 Barkley the player was an acceptable pick. on the field healthy he was 1 of the 10 best offensive players in football from day 1 regardless of position designation. Of the non-QB's Quentin Nelson would have been an acceptable pick too. Or Bradley Chubb. Several others as it turned as well but most of those players are known with the fortune of hindsight (Jaire Alexander, Lamar Jackson, Darius Leonard, etc).
The ACL was obviously extremely unfortunate and the primary impediment to ROI on the pick - but any player can tear an ACL. Most of them are non-contact injuries after all. This wasn't an overuse injury because he plays RB. Bradley Chubb tore his ACL in year 2 and he isn't a RB. Sometimes you can make a solid first round pick and just get bad luck. Like Hakeem Nicks. And Kenny Phillips. And JPP.