-Mets to FINALLY kick off their season tonight against the lefty Matt Moore
-Stroman at Chase Anderson tomorrow
-Peterson at Nola Wednesday
-Sandy thinks a Conforto extension still possible. Will continue dialogue with Boras into the season
-Lindor extension officially announced
-Alderson also brought up Syndergaard. "we’d like to keep as many players on the current roster as possible–especially the homegrown talent."
-With the long layoff bats are probably ice cold but LFGM!!!!!!!!
Lineups to come:
-Lugo has begun throwing (long toss)
Both ahead of schedule and expected back earlier than originally thought.
-Syndergaard can not return until May 31st.
Why do the Phillies play the shorthanded Nats instead of a postponement?
Scherzer and Soto are not impacted. Not sure who is, I'm sure we'll find out, but those two easily the biggest names.
@JonHeyman
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7m
11 Nats are in quarantine — 4 Covid positive and 7 close contacts. So they will open the season shorthanded Tuesday vs. the Braves. Stars Scherzer, Strasburg and Soto are among the majority not in quarantine.
Yeah he got placed on the 60 day IL which frees up a roster spot on the 40. He can not return until that's served. All reports, he's on track to return around that date, however.
The one benefit with the missed Eats series, is that we now dont need a 5th SP until April 15th.
Considering the good news with Cookie, we may only have to see Luchessi/opener a few times through.
Fingers crossed.
We'll find out shortly.
The one benefit with the missed Eats series, is that we now dont need a 5th SP until April 15th.
Considering the good news with Cookie, we may only have to see Luchessi/opener a few times through.
Fingers crossed.
Lugo is not expected back before mid-May
I really like the way the team is entering the season without a ton of overhype this year (at least how it seems to me). Pretty remarkable considering they had probably the biggest offseason in team history.
And I'll say this, I'm a lot more confident this is a 90+ win team entering the season than the 2015 and 2006 teams.
"Just a couple weeks before Spring Training games were set to ensue on Feb. 13, the Mets announced that right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo would undergo surgery on his elbow to remove loose bodies.
The plan was to shut Lugo, 31, down from throwing for six weeks, which put him out of contention for the Opening Day roster. That timeline would likely put Lugo out until mid-May when including rehab from the injury.
However, Lugo has been playing catch this past week according to Mets’ skipper Luis Rojas, and was two days ahead of schedule in throwing from 75 feet this weekend, so that return could possibly be a bit sooner."
Please don't do Wheeler :(
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looked incredible for the Mariners the other day. Really nice move for them. Harvey looked like a legit big leaguer (with lesser stuff obviously). Good for them both.
Please don't do Wheeler :(
You mean Morton comparing Wheeler to DeGrom after seeing his start lol.... Wheeler not being with the Mets is one move I can confidently say doesn't happen if Cohen owned the team.
The expect us to have the 4th best record.
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I really like the way the team is entering the season without a ton of overhype this year (at least how it seems to me). Pretty remarkable considering they had probably the biggest offseason in team history.
And I'll say this, I'm a lot more confident this is a 90+ win team entering the season than the 2015 and 2006 teams.
Agree on 2015. The 2014 team won 79 games, but 2006 I thought would win the World Series and IIRC they got a lot of love too in the media.
that 2006 off-season was really good too, added Delgado, Wags, Lo Duca, and more minor pieces to a veteran team. I go back and forth with which lineup is better. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado is an insane top 4, and add Lo Duca, Floyd, etc. and defensively and SB's they were really good too.
I like the 2021 Mets too but the division is so good and the Mets are not 100% healthy on the mound until two months into the season (at least).
So we'll see.
I'm hopeful, which is more than I can say for the past few years.
The expect us to have the 4th best record.
Link - ( New Window )
The RP thing is a little bit misleading because it's basically 3 guys - Diaz, May, Castro.
May is new so we'll see but it's interesting how bullish their projection is.
Castro who knows - great velocity but if they hit it the exit velocities are going to be higher.
Diaz may be the biggest wild card on the entire team. He's probably the single most important player we have. If you told me he has a great year (top 5 closer) I think I'd practically guarantee they win 90+ knowing nothing else.
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to have the best rotation in baseball and the best bullpen in baseball (even with factoring injuries).
The expect us to have the 4th best record.
Link - ( New Window )
The RP thing is a little bit misleading because it's basically 3 guys - Diaz, May, Castro.
May is new so we'll see but it's interesting how bullish their projection is.
Castro who knows - great velocity but if they hit it the exit velocities are going to be higher.
Diaz may be the biggest wild card on the entire team. He's probably the single most important player we have. If you told me he has a great year (top 5 closer) I think I'd practically guarantee they win 90+ knowing nothing else.
Not really misleading. Scroll through the other teams projections and it all begins to make sense. Most teams rarely have more than two quality relievers, and certainly not three. The Yankees might have been one of the few exceptions over recent years. Diaz and May are expected to be good which is more than most teams can say. They arent even factoring Lugo at all, which tells me there's upside for us outperform our projections actually.
Either way, interesting to look at.
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And I'll say this, I'm a lot more confident this is a 90+ win team entering the season than the 2015 and 2006 teams.
Agree on 2015. The 2014 team won 79 games, but 2006 I thought would win the World Series and IIRC they got a lot of love too in the media.
that 2006 off-season was really good too, added Delgado, Wags, Lo Duca, and more minor pieces to a veteran team. I go back and forth with which lineup is better. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado is an insane top 4, and add Lo Duca, Floyd, etc. and defensively and SB's they were really good too.
I like the 2021 Mets too but the division is so good and the Mets are not 100% healthy on the mound until two months into the season (at least).
So we'll see.
I'm hopeful, which is more than I can say for the past few years.
the 2006 team just had a lot of new faces to incorporate. I felt confident they'd be better but did not feel confident the pitching staff would hold up. They somehow got 15 wins out of Trachsel and Glavine at 40, and Maine kind of broke out from nowhere.
In the pen Sanchez/Heilman/Oliver/Feliciano/Bradford was really really good, and at 34 Wagner did his job very well. By fwar they had the 2nd best BP in baseball that year. And then without Sanchez, Bradford, and Oliver dropped to 15th in 2007.
BP performance is always the biggest swing variable that's hard to predict and if push came to shove the place where I wish they'd added 1 more player this offseason. But that's why they play the games.
Not really misleading. Scroll through the other teams projections and it all begins to make sense. Most teams rarely have more than two quality relievers, and certainly not three.
That's my point - all of the BP projections are misleading not just the Mets. Perhaps "highly leveraged" is a better way to put it. But 1 player per team having a very good year or a very bad year would completely change their projections, and we know that happens all the time with relievers. The only predictable outcome with relievers is that they are unpredictable.
We'll find out shortly.
sitting a guy who had .900 OPS vs lefties would not be smart. Factor in Moore has a higher OPS given up vs lefites then righties...it would be downright insane.
Pillar is a bench piece and was paid like a bench piece...not a full platoon guy.
Basically the Mets have to stay afloat until those two come back. I mean, it's 40% of the rotation.
I agree Diaz is probably the most important player on the team in regards to their 2021 chances, but Stroman and Walker not far behind. Those two cannot be net negatives or even net neutral or it's basically a one man rotation.
Peterson and Lucchesi (or whoever #5 winds up being) can be net negative or net neutral without much impact.
The one benefit with the missed Eats series, is that we now dont need a 5th SP until April 15th.
Considering the good news with Cookie, we may only have to see Luchessi/opener a few times through.
Fingers crossed.
Lucchesi is listed as an available RP for tonight's game
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return around May 1 now, or shortly thereafter.
The one benefit with the missed Eats series, is that we now dont need a 5th SP until April 15th.
Considering the good news with Cookie, we may only have to see Luchessi/opener a few times through.
Fingers crossed.
Lucchesi is listed as an available RP for tonight's game
Nice. Looks like they are correctly looking ahead. :)
Basically the Mets have to stay afloat until those two come back. I mean, it's 40% of the rotation.
I agree Diaz is probably the most important player on the team in regards to their 2021 chances, but Stroman and Walker not far behind. Those two cannot be net negatives or even net neutral or it's basically a one man rotation.
Peterson and Lucchesi (or whoever #5 winds up being) can be net negative or net neutral without much impact.
Both Walker and Stroman have been good pitchers at the MLB level (both career ERA+ around 110). Just because he was fresh in my mind, as a comparison Steve Trachsel's career ERA+ was 99 (though he was better as a NYM).
I'm less worried about them doing what they've done over their careers than I am a BP featuring multiple players who have literally ranged being among the best at their position and worst at their position in just the last few seasons. To advance in the playoffs they will need at least 1 of the SP healthy and in form but they can survive the regular season with a good lineup. Hard to survive bad bull pens.
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Not really misleading. Scroll through the other teams projections and it all begins to make sense. Most teams rarely have more than two quality relievers, and certainly not three.
That's my point - all of the BP projections are misleading not just the Mets. Perhaps "highly leveraged" is a better way to put it. But 1 player per team having a very good year or a very bad year would completely change their projections, and we know that happens all the time with relievers. The only predictable outcome with relievers is that they are unpredictable.
Sure. It's certainly not supposed to be viewed as a crystal ball. Everybody knows players will outperform or underperform projections in any given season. But when looking at your roster VS others on opening day, its certainly interesting/fun to see where you stack up and even nicer to see some sort of formula that isn't "fans opinions". Diaz and May have been mostly good over the last 5 years, were both good last year, and they both still have good stuff..... not really crazy coming up with a baseline projection on them based in some sort of realistic reality.
We have nice depth this year and that's not even accounting for the boost in run support we should finally get with this lineup.
Walker and Peterson should be on innings limits this year so its probably a blessing Carrasco and Thor are starting later IMO.
Lee opinions are all over the map (which quite frankly is likely why the Mets were able to get him for so "cheap"). He didn't look good in ST (at the plate OR in the field) but he might have just been overwhelmed/pressing. I think he's more likely a 4th OF than some major add BUT he does have starting MLB CF upside, so he should be fun to monitor this season. Unrelated but really hoping to hit up a few Cyclones games this season but they haven't been very clear as to when single-game tickets will be available.
I'd bet the over on 5/10 correct team projections for starting pitching and expect that 1 or 2 of the incorrect projections fall out just bc of injuries.
For their BP projections I'd bet the under on 5/10 teams being right.
So it has less to do with the Mets than just the difficulty projecting bullpens. Yes I'd rather be #1 than not be #1, but materially it's like being a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament vs. a 7 seed or an 8 seed. Practically speaking the odds of succeeding aren't materially different.
Also I think last year's NYM were projected top 5 and they ended up 15th.
I'd bet the over on 5/10 correct team projections for starting pitching and expect that 1 or 2 of the incorrect projections fall out just bc of injuries.
For their BP projections I'd bet the under on 5/10 teams being right.
So it has less to do with the Mets than just the difficulty projecting bullpens. Yes I'd rather be #1 than not be #1, but materially it's like being a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament vs. a 7 seed or an 8 seed. Practically speaking the odds of succeeding aren't materially different.
Also I think last year's NYM were projected top 5 and they ended up 15th.
All this is still fine. Again though, you have to root your projections in some sort of reality. I cant think of any other sort of solution can you? I think its more interesting to simply look at every teams pens as a quick reference. I feel like Mets fans often assume every other pen in baseball has 8 quality arms.... the reality is 80% of most teams pens are complete trash. The FG projection is also up to date to the second. So the second a team suffers an injury or games occur and players underperform, it re-updates itself. It's a fun and useful tool. But no, you should not expect it to peg where every team will finish at the end of the year 6 months in advance. Not at all.
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Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
Mets Game 1 of 162, @ PHI
Monday, April 5, 7:05 p.m.
LHP Matt Moore (0-0, 0.00)
Pillar CF
Lindor SS
Conforto RF
Alonso 1B
J.D. Davis 3B
McNeil 2B
McCann C
Nimmo LF
deGrom RHP (0-0, 0.00
We'll find out shortly.
You were correct.
Would have liked to have seen the real lineup tonight but at least Pillar had a hot spring...
Hate that Nimmo isn't leading off either. Ugh.
Nimmo is the leadoff hitter (keep him there)
Dom needs to be in there everday
not that difficult.