I'll start off by saying that I like Kyle Pitts as a prospect, his ball skills + size/speed ratio make for a really impressive player. I've posted on previous threads about how I think he's got elite potential. I've seen him graded as the best non-QB prospect or close to it by a decent amount of people. If you listen to the BBI Insiders/Asshats, it sounds like he's the #1 player on the Giants' board.
But all that being said, recent history has shown that 1st round TEs aren't the best value picks in the draft. Take a look below at the 1st round TEs drafted over the past 15 years.
1st Round TEs (Pick) -- Name --- 800/1000+ yard Receiving Seasons
2019 (8th) --- TJ Hockenson ------ 0x 800+ yds
2019 (20th) -- Noah Fant --------- 0x 800+ yds
2018 (25th) -- Hayden Hurst ------ 0x 800+ yds
2017 (19th) -- OJ Howard --------- 0x 800+ yds
2017 (23rd) -- Evan Engram -------- 0x 800+ yds
2017 (29th) -- David Njoku --------- 0x 800+ yds
2014 (10th) -- Eric Ebron ------------ 0x 800+ yds
2013 (21st) -- Tyler Eifert ------------ 0x 800+ yds
2010 (21st) -- Jermaine Gresham ---- 0x 800+ yds
2009 (20th) -- Brandon Pettigrew ---- 0x 800+ yds
2008 (30th) -- Dustin Keller ---------- 1x 800+ yds
2007 (31st) -- Greg Olsen ------------- 3x 1000+ yds ---- 5x 800+ yds --- 2x All-Pro 2nd Team
2006 (6th) --- Vernon Davis ----------- 0x 1000+ yds ---- 3x 800+ yd ---- 1x All-Pro 2nd Team
2006 (28th) -- Marcedes Lewis ------- 0x 800+ yds
So first of all, there have been only 14 1st round TEs drafted over the last 15 years which indicates that it isn't exactly the most valued position among NFL front offices. Even more noteworthy is that out of those 14 players, only 2 of them ever made an All-Pro team (Olsen and Davis). Those two + Dustin Keller are the only 3 of those guys who have even topped 800+ receiving yards in an NFL season, with Olsen being the only one who has ever topped 1000+ yards. Hockenson looks like a good player for the Lions, but he hasn't exactly set the world on fire.
Pitts isn't a good blocker, he's going to be drafted to catch passes and gain chunks of yards through the air. I chose 800+ yards as the threshold because that's 50 yards a game, if we're drafting a TE who isn't a good blocker then I would hope that he would atleast get those 50+ yards a game to make an impact.
TEs with 800+ Yd seasons since 2016 (Round Drafted)
Greg Olsen ---------- (1st)
Kyle Rudolph ------- (2nd)
Zach Ertz ------------- (2nd)
Rob Gronkowski ---- (2nd)
Travis Kelce -------- (3rd)
Jimmy Graham ----- (3rd)
Jared Cook ----------- (3rd)
George Kittle -------- (5th)
Delanie Walker ------ (6th)
Darren Waller -------- (6th)
Out of the 10 TEs from the last 5 years to break the 800+ receiving yard mark, 6 of them were drafted after the 3rd round with 3 being drafted after the 5th round. 2 of the 3 best TEs in the game today were drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds respectively (Kittle and Waller).
As much as I'm impressed by Pitts' skillset, the recent history of 1st round TEs is pretty scary. It's a position where we've seen a lot of mid/late round studs emerge over the years. I know that if you're drafting Pitts, you think he could be a Kelce/Waller/Gates type of receiving threat who provides the same impact as an elite WR, but recent history shows the odds are against him.
Is Pitts truly that special and unique that he'll buck the trend of 1st round TEs struggling to make an impact?
But I would go WR instead at #11 because of what the OP has laid out.
Now if you're going to just play him as a traditional Y tight end? You're overspending. I also wouldn't want to take a guy like that in the top 5-7 picks, I'd prefer they went with a blue chipper at another position or traded down in that scenario. However, picking at 11 in the off-chance that he falls? It's worth it.
This all makes the substitution game impossible to play unless you are one of the few teams that has a guy that can follow him around that plays LB or S.
Pitts is in his own class of player. I rarely get this excited about any player and this is what is driving me nuts about people pegging him as 1st round TE. He's soo much more than that. I don't really care about the people that have hyped up first round TE's before because I wasn't one of those people. I live in Florida and watch a ton of their games. Anyone that doesn't get excited about what this guy can do I really think they maybe they've seen 1 or 2 games of his. Really a special player and I'm actually on board with a trade up if he can be had for a couple third's.
Even if Engram has that ephiphany I think he's gone because his price tag goes through the roof.
Secondly, I don't like using historical draft data like this in the NFL, because the sample size is relatively small. Outliers happen all the time and on top of that the NFL is ever changing in the type of players that have success.
Not really a narrative thing. I just meant "3rd round or later" not "later than the 3rd round".
Totally agree. The question I have about Pitts is why is he playing TE if he has the speed and skills of a wide receiver and can’t block? It doesn’t really make any sense to me. Is he slow off the line of scrimmage? Is he not a good route runner? Is his separation poor?
If Pitts and Smith are sitting there at 11 I’d go Smith. I know I’ll get killed for saying that but watch Smith’s route running and smooth hands. On our team he’d be playing the opposition’s second CB every week with Golladay on the other side. He’d be open constantly.
We all want Evan Engram off the team, draft his replacement and let him get acclimated before taking over full time next year is not an outrageous proposition. Maybe even best case a team loses their TE before the trade deadline and pay a little more for Engram. Succession planning.
I look forward to Sy's review but the upside Pitts can offer this offense shouldn't be discounted. The fact that blocking is his obvious deficiency shouldn't bury his potential upside.
I would throw either one every single time there isn't someone over the top. Jones is not afraid to throw into coverage like that.
It is actually what he does best.
The original matchup nightmare shouldn’t dissuade anybody from taking Pitts.
Then why is he not listed as a WR? It’s a more lucrative position. There has to be some limitation to his game which is placing him in the TE bucket. He’s not a good blocker so it’s not because of that.
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as the best receiver > 6'3" to enter the league since Calvin Johnson. I think his position is giving people pause but I think he's the best non QB in this draft.
Then why is he not listed as a WR? It’s a more lucrative position. There has to be some limitation to his game which is placing him in the TE bucket. He’s not a good blocker so it’s not because of that.
Because you're not listing Toney and Grimes as TEs and putting them on the line in run looks. Who cares about labels, look at where he lined up and what he did.
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In comment 15211337 NYG22 said:
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as the best receiver > 6'3" to enter the league since Calvin Johnson. I think his position is giving people pause but I think he's the best non QB in this draft.
Then why is he not listed as a WR? It’s a more lucrative position. There has to be some limitation to his game which is placing him in the TE bucket. He’s not a good blocker so it’s not because of that.
Because you're not listing Toney and Grimes as TEs and putting them on the line in run looks. Who cares about labels, look at where he lined up and what he did.
I’m just not a huge fan of these tweener WR/TE’s who can’t block. For every Jimmy Graham there is an Engram or Ebron. He might be a stud, I’d rather see Smith or Waddle to be honest.
I'm not saying we shouldn't draft Smith either, I'd actually be cool with that selection, but there's a negative precedent with him as well.
I'm not saying we shouldn't draft Smith either, I'd actually be cool with that selection, but there's a negative precedent with him as well.
Agreed, his size is a concern but he is a hell of a route runner. The Marvin Harrison comp seems pretty accurate to me. The idea of Golladay on one side and a player with Harrison’s potential on the other is pretty exciting.
Who's the last college TE to score as often and as easily as Pitts?
Who's the last college TE to score as often and as easily as Pitts?
Derek Brown??
:-)
Who's the last college TE to score as often and as easily as Pitts?
People just haven’t seen enough of the guy and are only reading surface deep. It’s the only thing I can come up with. You don’t watch a ton of the guy and think TE that can’t block. You say what an unbelievable pass catching weapon. Shit he might be getting even more hype if he didn’t play at UF. They love to spread the ball around.
Why he’s still listed as TE is that he can work the middle of the field in pass game, catch the ball double covered, while taking a hit. There’s really not many comparisons for him. The word Unicorn gets thrown around too much, but IMO it’s appropriate for him.
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neither did Engram. Not even close especially when looking at the peak seasons. Jimmy Graham is good comp but I can't think of anyone that's come out as of late that compares to Graham.
Who's the last college TE to score as often and as easily as Pitts?
People just haven’t seen enough of the guy and are only reading surface deep. It’s the only thing I can come up with. You don’t watch a ton of the guy and think TE that can’t block. You say what an unbelievable pass catching weapon. Shit he might be getting even more hype if he didn’t play at UF. They love to spread the ball around.
Why he’s still listed as TE is that he can work the middle of the field in pass game, catch the ball double covered, while taking a hit. There’s really not many comparisons for him. The word Unicorn gets thrown around too much, but IMO it’s appropriate for him.
After watching Engram the last four years anything would be impressive at this stage from the TE position. I might get choked up seeing Pitts catch a 4 yard pass.
I would throw either one every single time there isn't someone over the top. Jones is not afraid to throw into coverage like that.
It is actually what he does best.
That’s the thing with him. How many guys can truly follow him around the field? It needs to be a LB or Safety. A guy like Jalen Ramsey can , but then you just shift him inline and make Ramsey play in the box.
Now where do you draft him?
I equally think Waddle could be just as good a fit in that he completely opens up the deep passing game and we all those quick underneath slants that he can take to the house at any given time.
Because then you have a DB in the box instead of a LB. The problem with Engram is he has a very limited skillet. Essentially get him out in space against a LB and he can make big plays. He’s a shit route runner and doesn’t make contested catches. Pitts is a great route runner who makes a ton of contested catches. This madness about Engram and Pitts needs to stop and it’s the zenith of cognitive bias. You think any fans of other teams are comparing Engram to Pitts?
Smith went against top college defenses (I understand the NFL is another breed) for 4 years in the SEC with his size being 0 issue, and he performed at a high level from day 1. I have no concerns about his size and would skip to the podium if he were available at 11.
I think that a good receiving TE is just a tough to find rarity more than anything and is truly a crapshoot. But it is so so desirable that teams are still willing to try when you have an uber athletic playmaker like Pitts.
Kelce, Gronk, Waller, Kittle... so elite and can really really change a team's offense even more so than a #1 WR can IMO.
Agreed Bill. I see teams lining up an excellent cover safety or big corner on Pitts which means he won’t be able to separate and you are using him as a jump ball guy mainly. I can’t see defenses willingly putting a linebacker on him which ruins any speed advantage he would have. I think I’m just scarred by the EE experience and hearing how he was going to be this great mismatch machine for the past few years.
I think that a good receiving TE is just a tough to find rarity more than anything and is truly a crapshoot. But it is so so desirable that teams are still willing to try when you have an uber athletic playmaker like Pitts.
Kelce, Gronk, Waller, Kittle... so elite and can really really change a team's offense even more so than a #1 WR can IMO.
The issue is all of those TE’s you referenced are also good blockers. Especially the first three. Pitts has not been referred to as a good blocker by anyone I have seen up to this point. Which can lead to a disadvantage in the run game.
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If his weight/size is a CONCERN, why would you draft him? If you’re NOT concerned, then run to the podium..
Smith went against top college defenses (I understand the NFL is another breed) for 4 years in the SEC with his size being 0 issue, and he performed at a high level from day 1. I have no concerns about his size and would skip to the podium if he were available at 11.
Agreed. Some players also have a knack for not taking the big hit. Smith seems slippery enough to avoid getting laid out by DB’s.
2nd Round) TE-Pat Freiermuth-Penn St.
3rd Round) TE-Kyle Long
3rd Round) WR-Nico Collins-Michigan
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like a WR, great, then compare him to the WRs available at that spot and either take him or one of them. He can't block, so why waste him at TE, while also hurting the run game? Everyone says, like with Engram, he'll be a great mismatch as a TE. Why would a defense would try to cover him with a LB, unless they have a really terrific cover guy? They'll cover him with a DB and the mismatch is lost.
Because then you have a DB in the box instead of a LB.
Yes, you would have a DB in the box. That's what I said. So what? We have DBs in the box plenty of the time. We expect to play a lot a 2 LB, 5 DB sets. If they happen to run to Pitts' side, he's likely not going to be able to block a quick DB. And there will be teams with LBs or big safeties fast enough to cover him
Pitts being available at 11 would be the greatest draft gift in years for Giants fans. Outside of us foolishly passing on Tunsil because of a stupid video.
Pitts being available at 11 would be the greatest draft gift in years for Giants fans. Outside of us foolishly passing on Tunsil because of a stupid video.
You must be reading different write-ups than me. The ones I see say he can't or won't block. And to me anyway, it makes sense that a DB would be more elusive than a LB if he tries to block. If Pitts was supposed to be a good blocker, and therefore a complete TE, we wouldn't even be having this discussion, would we?
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disengenous. He has great feet, understands angles, and is practically stretch Armstrong. He can certainly block DBs. His problem will be a size issue at only 245 at 6’6. But he isn’t an incompetent blocker in-line like Engram.
Pitts being available at 11 would be the greatest draft gift in years for Giants fans. Outside of us foolishly passing on Tunsil because of a stupid video.
You must be reading different write-ups than me. The ones I see say he can't or won't block. And to me anyway, it makes sense that a DB would be more elusive than a LB if he tries to block. If Pitts was supposed to be a good blocker, and therefore a complete TE, we wouldn't even be having this discussion, would we?
That’s because I’m not reading write ups. It’s based on me watching almost every game he’s played in last two years as I live in Florida.
With that logic why even have LBers and not just DBacks playing LB because they are so elusive.
Looking at Pitts as just a TE is the wrong way to look at anyway. Play him exclusively on outside and he’s a ten year starting WR in this league. He’s 6 6 with a massive winspan, very good route runner, who makes contested catches. That’s his floor. His ceiling is astronomical because of his positional versatility. At the very least he can be a tremendous pass catching option from the inline spot which is a different animal.
And he’s already a better blocker than Engram because of his feet and arms and understanding angles. He isn’t going to blow up plays singkehabdedly like Engram does with his two left feet. And our scrub RBs were still able to run for 4.5 yards a clip. The ability for the TE to contribute in run game is way overblown because generally they try not to put them in disadvantaged blocking situations.
When Pitts is on the field it gives you a ton of audible ability. They want to go small, check into a run play that gets him an OLB or DB. He’s never going to be a guy that can block DL, but that’s not what you are drafting him for. There’s a reason those guys go in round 5 and later and the guys that win in the pass game go in the first three rounds.
Pitts is on another planet as a football player. I think you may be conflating his inability to block well with being tough. Guy is absolutely fearless going over the middle for the ball and comes down with it more times than not. He is always open due to his route running ability, stickem hands, wingspan, toughness, and contested catch ability.
Secondly, I don't like using historical draft data like this in the NFL, because the sample size is relatively small. Outliers happen all the time and on top of that the NFL is ever changing in the type of players that have success.
Every year they tell you this guy special. Seems like few actually are.
Pitts does both. Pitts is the kind of player you can throw a jump ball to and know the worst case scenario is an incompletion. Engram can't even be counted on to catch open throws a lot of the time.
Night and day mentally. AND Pitts is the much more physically exciting player.
Every year they tell you this guy special. Seems like few actually are.
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Pitts is not a regular tight end. He will be playing outside receiver a ton.
Secondly, I don't like using historical draft data like this in the NFL, because the sample size is relatively small. Outliers happen all the time and on top of that the NFL is ever changing in the type of players that have success.
Every year they tell you this guy special. Seems like few actually are.
A year ago, Isiah Simmons was the unicorn on defense- he could go after the QB like and edge, he could cover receivers all over the field. Maybe someday he'll be a great player, but this year with the Cards he sucked and didn't see the field much.
Pitts does both. Pitts is the kind of player you can throw a jump ball to and know the worst case scenario is an incompletion. Engram can't even be counted on to catch open throws a lot of the time.
Night and day mentally. AND Pitts is the much more physically exciting player.
hey, you know I just went back and reread the scouting reports on Engram coming out. None of them said that he was a nightmare of a matchup and would kept defensive coordinators awake nights. I don't know where I got that from. All the scouting reports said that he doesn't play tough, mentally or physically, that he can't come down with contested balls, had lousy hands and that he was a turnover machine.
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although Pitts seems to be the guy that the giants were hoping to get in engram, id probably pass as well. round 3 seems to be the sweet spot for TE value.
So you would put a third round grade on Pitts?
I think that a good receiving TE is just a tough to find rarity more than anything and is truly a crapshoot. But it is so so desirable that teams are still willing to try when you have an uber athletic playmaker like Pitts.
Kelce, Gronk, Waller, Kittle... so elite and can really really change a team's offense even more so than a #1 WR can IMO.
Kelce, Gronk, Waller and Kittle can all block and are tough hombre's that physically dominate and throw their weight around as well as catch -- that does not describe Pitts
this is the salient comment -- no mas -- they also tried to get it with Beckham -- it's been a bad experiment -- its risky to go outside what you don't understand and as Osi showed there is a very low rate of success here
his speed and explosion numbers athletically are a little behind CJ but their final year numbers in college aren't that far off on a per game basis and he even had the higher YPC.
I fell for the banana in the tailpipe with Eric Ebron several years ago but I don't think that's the case with Pitts. His receiving production does seem pretty clearly a level above most of the first round TE's and closer to that of the super sized WR's (including CJ).
There’s no chance pitts makes it to 11. Giants will have to trade up if they want him.!
his speed and explosion numbers athletically are a little behind CJ but their final year numbers in college aren't that far off on a per game basis and he even had the higher YPC.
I fell for the banana in the tailpipe with Eric Ebron several years ago but I don't think that's the case with Pitts. His receiving production does seem pretty clearly a level above most of the first round TE's and closer to that of the super sized WR's (including CJ).
Ebron had the dropsies in college if memory serves right.
There's a lot more to being an athlete than just all the size and speed numbers as well. Things like balance and hand eye coordination factor in the picture. You want to talk about dancing elephants? There's only a handful of guys in NFL history that can do what guys like Moss, CJ, and Pitts will in the future. Lots of guys that came into the league on the bigger side that had explosive numbers fail because they lack body control and hand eye coordination. Not only does Pitts have that, he's even big on the NFL level ALREADY. Not just dwarfing people in college. Some guys come up to NFL and where big for college and when they can't rely on that anymore, end up sucking or not living up to expectations. Corey Davis comes to mind.
Ha ha, I was like man he’s really passionate about Pitts
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we may as well be discussing the arguments against drafting Trevor Lawrence. Pitts just doesn't seem likely to fall to us, at all.
There’s no chance pitts makes it to 11. Giants will have to trade up if they want him.!
Yeh it sucks and I know a certain amount of the board will go apeshit if it happens, but I think it's worth it for a third if he's there at 8 and Carolina wants to make a trade to recoup some capital. I felt like that's low, but it would be worth taht according to the trade charts.
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I made this point on another thread but Engram doesn't play tough, mentally or physically.
Pitts does both. Pitts is the kind of player you can throw a jump ball to and know the worst case scenario is an incompletion. Engram can't even be counted on to catch open throws a lot of the time.
Night and day mentally. AND Pitts is the much more physically exciting player.
hey, you know I just went back and reread the scouting reports on Engram coming out. None of them said that he was a nightmare of a matchup and would kept defensive coordinators awake nights. I don't know where I got that from. All the scouting reports said that he doesn't play tough, mentally or physically, that he can't come down with contested balls, had lousy hands and that he was a turnover machine.
Engram was the 23rd pick and whose to say where he goes if we didn't pick him.
Pitts won't make it past us.
You don't think that that means something?
- wild card for the offense to have to deal with
- Can cover anybody....shut-down nightmare on ypur best players on O
- Unparalleled athletic ability will revolutionize the position
Simmons was more domimant at Clemson than Pitts was at UF, and both have "soft" knocks against them. I am terrified of drafting Pitts or any of the Bama WRs for this reason. Go get a defensive playmaker or one of the 2 OTs at 11.
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In comment 15211741 santacruzom said:
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we may as well be discussing the arguments against drafting Trevor Lawrence. Pitts just doesn't seem likely to fall to us, at all.
There’s no chance pitts makes it to 11. Giants will have to trade up if they want him.!
Yeh it sucks and I know a certain amount of the board will go apeshit if it happens, but I think it's worth it for a third if he's there at 8 and Carolina wants to make a trade to recoup some capital. I felt like that's low, but it would be worth taht according to the trade charts.
No argument out of me. If the Giants love a player and want to move up for him, they should.
Pitts is going to flourish at the NFL level. I'd bet on it.
- wild card for the offense to have to deal with
- Can cover anybody....shut-down nightmare on ypur best players on O
- Unparalleled athletic ability will revolutionize the position
Simmons was more domimant at Clemson than Pitts was at UF, and both have "soft" knocks against them. I am terrified of drafting Pitts or any of the Bama WRs for this reason. Go get a defensive playmaker or one of the 2 OTs at 11.
Two completely different situations. Simmons is fucking soft. Tough to play LB in the NFL. Pitts certainly isn’t. I didn’t like Simmons last year because he was positionless, although maybe in the right defense he could be a productive player. Two completely different situations.