I'll start off by saying that I like Kyle Pitts as a prospect, his ball skills + size/speed ratio make for a really impressive player. I've posted on previous threads about how I think he's got elite potential. I've seen him graded as the best non-QB prospect or close to it by a decent amount of people. If you listen to the BBI Insiders/Asshats, it sounds like he's the #1 player on the Giants' board.
But all that being said, recent history has shown that 1st round TEs aren't the best value picks in the draft. Take a look below at the 1st round TEs drafted over the past 15 years.
1st Round TEs (Pick) -- Name --- 800/1000+ yard Receiving Seasons
2019 (8th) --- TJ Hockenson ------ 0x 800+ yds
2019 (20th) -- Noah Fant --------- 0x 800+ yds
2018 (25th) -- Hayden Hurst ------ 0x 800+ yds
2017 (19th) -- OJ Howard --------- 0x 800+ yds
2017 (23rd) -- Evan Engram -------- 0x 800+ yds
2017 (29th) -- David Njoku --------- 0x 800+ yds
2014 (10th) -- Eric Ebron ------------ 0x 800+ yds
2013 (21st) -- Tyler Eifert ------------ 0x 800+ yds
2010 (21st) -- Jermaine Gresham ---- 0x 800+ yds
2009 (20th) -- Brandon Pettigrew ---- 0x 800+ yds
2008 (30th) -- Dustin Keller ---------- 1x 800+ yds
2007 (31st) -- Greg Olsen ------------- 3x 1000+ yds ---- 5x 800+ yds --- 2x All-Pro 2nd Team
2006 (6th) --- Vernon Davis ----------- 0x 1000+ yds ---- 3x 800+ yd ---- 1x All-Pro 2nd Team
2006 (28th) -- Marcedes Lewis ------- 0x 800+ yds
So first of all, there have been only 14 1st round TEs drafted over the last 15 years which indicates that it isn't exactly the most valued position among NFL front offices. Even more noteworthy is that out of those 14 players, only 2 of them ever made an All-Pro team (Olsen and Davis). Those two + Dustin Keller are the only 3 of those guys who have even topped 800+ receiving yards in an NFL season, with Olsen being the only one who has ever topped 1000+ yards. Hockenson looks like a good player for the Lions, but he hasn't exactly set the world on fire.
Pitts isn't a good blocker, he's going to be drafted to catch passes and gain chunks of yards through the air. I chose 800+ yards as the threshold because that's 50 yards a game, if we're drafting a TE who isn't a good blocker then I would hope that he would atleast get those 50+ yards a game to make an impact.
TEs with 800+ Yd seasons since 2016 (Round Drafted)
Greg Olsen ---------- (1st)
Kyle Rudolph ------- (2nd)
Zach Ertz ------------- (2nd)
Rob Gronkowski ---- (2nd)
Travis Kelce -------- (3rd)
Jimmy Graham ----- (3rd)
Jared Cook ----------- (3rd)
George Kittle -------- (5th)
Delanie Walker ------ (6th)
Darren Waller -------- (6th)
Out of the 10 TEs from the last 5 years to break the 800+ receiving yard mark, 6 of them were drafted after the 3rd round with 3 being drafted after the 5th round. 2 of the 3 best TEs in the game today were drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds respectively (Kittle and Waller).
As much as I'm impressed by Pitts' skillset, the recent history of 1st round TEs is pretty scary. It's a position where we've seen a lot of mid/late round studs emerge over the years. I know that if you're drafting Pitts, you think he could be a Kelce/Waller/Gates type of receiving threat who provides the same impact as an elite WR, but recent history shows the odds are against him.
Is Pitts truly that special and unique that he'll buck the trend of 1st round TEs struggling to make an impact?
Secondly, I don't like using historical draft data like this in the NFL, because the sample size is relatively small. Outliers happen all the time and on top of that the NFL is ever changing in the type of players that have success.
Every year they tell you this guy special. Seems like few actually are.
Pitts does both. Pitts is the kind of player you can throw a jump ball to and know the worst case scenario is an incompletion. Engram can't even be counted on to catch open throws a lot of the time.
Night and day mentally. AND Pitts is the much more physically exciting player.
Every year they tell you this guy special. Seems like few actually are.
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Pitts is not a regular tight end. He will be playing outside receiver a ton.
Secondly, I don't like using historical draft data like this in the NFL, because the sample size is relatively small. Outliers happen all the time and on top of that the NFL is ever changing in the type of players that have success.
Every year they tell you this guy special. Seems like few actually are.
A year ago, Isiah Simmons was the unicorn on defense- he could go after the QB like and edge, he could cover receivers all over the field. Maybe someday he'll be a great player, but this year with the Cards he sucked and didn't see the field much.
Pitts does both. Pitts is the kind of player you can throw a jump ball to and know the worst case scenario is an incompletion. Engram can't even be counted on to catch open throws a lot of the time.
Night and day mentally. AND Pitts is the much more physically exciting player.
hey, you know I just went back and reread the scouting reports on Engram coming out. None of them said that he was a nightmare of a matchup and would kept defensive coordinators awake nights. I don't know where I got that from. All the scouting reports said that he doesn't play tough, mentally or physically, that he can't come down with contested balls, had lousy hands and that he was a turnover machine.
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although Pitts seems to be the guy that the giants were hoping to get in engram, id probably pass as well. round 3 seems to be the sweet spot for TE value.
So you would put a third round grade on Pitts?
I think that a good receiving TE is just a tough to find rarity more than anything and is truly a crapshoot. But it is so so desirable that teams are still willing to try when you have an uber athletic playmaker like Pitts.
Kelce, Gronk, Waller, Kittle... so elite and can really really change a team's offense even more so than a #1 WR can IMO.
Kelce, Gronk, Waller and Kittle can all block and are tough hombre's that physically dominate and throw their weight around as well as catch -- that does not describe Pitts
this is the salient comment -- no mas -- they also tried to get it with Beckham -- it's been a bad experiment -- its risky to go outside what you don't understand and as Osi showed there is a very low rate of success here
his speed and explosion numbers athletically are a little behind CJ but their final year numbers in college aren't that far off on a per game basis and he even had the higher YPC.
I fell for the banana in the tailpipe with Eric Ebron several years ago but I don't think that's the case with Pitts. His receiving production does seem pretty clearly a level above most of the first round TE's and closer to that of the super sized WR's (including CJ).
There’s no chance pitts makes it to 11. Giants will have to trade up if they want him.!
his speed and explosion numbers athletically are a little behind CJ but their final year numbers in college aren't that far off on a per game basis and he even had the higher YPC.
I fell for the banana in the tailpipe with Eric Ebron several years ago but I don't think that's the case with Pitts. His receiving production does seem pretty clearly a level above most of the first round TE's and closer to that of the super sized WR's (including CJ).
Ebron had the dropsies in college if memory serves right.
There's a lot more to being an athlete than just all the size and speed numbers as well. Things like balance and hand eye coordination factor in the picture. You want to talk about dancing elephants? There's only a handful of guys in NFL history that can do what guys like Moss, CJ, and Pitts will in the future. Lots of guys that came into the league on the bigger side that had explosive numbers fail because they lack body control and hand eye coordination. Not only does Pitts have that, he's even big on the NFL level ALREADY. Not just dwarfing people in college. Some guys come up to NFL and where big for college and when they can't rely on that anymore, end up sucking or not living up to expectations. Corey Davis comes to mind.
Ha ha, I was like man he’s really passionate about Pitts
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we may as well be discussing the arguments against drafting Trevor Lawrence. Pitts just doesn't seem likely to fall to us, at all.
There’s no chance pitts makes it to 11. Giants will have to trade up if they want him.!
Yeh it sucks and I know a certain amount of the board will go apeshit if it happens, but I think it's worth it for a third if he's there at 8 and Carolina wants to make a trade to recoup some capital. I felt like that's low, but it would be worth taht according to the trade charts.
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I made this point on another thread but Engram doesn't play tough, mentally or physically.
Pitts does both. Pitts is the kind of player you can throw a jump ball to and know the worst case scenario is an incompletion. Engram can't even be counted on to catch open throws a lot of the time.
Night and day mentally. AND Pitts is the much more physically exciting player.
hey, you know I just went back and reread the scouting reports on Engram coming out. None of them said that he was a nightmare of a matchup and would kept defensive coordinators awake nights. I don't know where I got that from. All the scouting reports said that he doesn't play tough, mentally or physically, that he can't come down with contested balls, had lousy hands and that he was a turnover machine.
Engram was the 23rd pick and whose to say where he goes if we didn't pick him.
Pitts won't make it past us.
You don't think that that means something?
- wild card for the offense to have to deal with
- Can cover anybody....shut-down nightmare on ypur best players on O
- Unparalleled athletic ability will revolutionize the position
Simmons was more domimant at Clemson than Pitts was at UF, and both have "soft" knocks against them. I am terrified of drafting Pitts or any of the Bama WRs for this reason. Go get a defensive playmaker or one of the 2 OTs at 11.
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In comment 15211741 santacruzom said:
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we may as well be discussing the arguments against drafting Trevor Lawrence. Pitts just doesn't seem likely to fall to us, at all.
There’s no chance pitts makes it to 11. Giants will have to trade up if they want him.!
Yeh it sucks and I know a certain amount of the board will go apeshit if it happens, but I think it's worth it for a third if he's there at 8 and Carolina wants to make a trade to recoup some capital. I felt like that's low, but it would be worth taht according to the trade charts.
No argument out of me. If the Giants love a player and want to move up for him, they should.
Pitts is going to flourish at the NFL level. I'd bet on it.
- wild card for the offense to have to deal with
- Can cover anybody....shut-down nightmare on ypur best players on O
- Unparalleled athletic ability will revolutionize the position
Simmons was more domimant at Clemson than Pitts was at UF, and both have "soft" knocks against them. I am terrified of drafting Pitts or any of the Bama WRs for this reason. Go get a defensive playmaker or one of the 2 OTs at 11.
Two completely different situations. Simmons is fucking soft. Tough to play LB in the NFL. Pitts certainly isn’t. I didn’t like Simmons last year because he was positionless, although maybe in the right defense he could be a productive player. Two completely different situations.