It seems like it's always an adventure with the bullpen every year, but this feel like a special kind of adventure is awaiting us.
Meh.. I think the layoff is really understated all around for the team. These guys just haven't gotten work..looks like the hitters finally started getting a little more comfortable today.
May is going to be better... Lugo will come back.. we haven't even seen Diaz yet..I'm not sure it's time to freak out just yet.
it's not freak out time the offense is going to win a lot of games
and the bullpen isn't going to look this bad when they are facing teams that don't have Realmuto, Harper, Bohm, etc.
but the roster does have some clear weaknesses. the defense gives up way too many extra outs and too many in the BP have poor control and/or difficulty with the long ball.
Hopefully Rojas has now learned his lesson early on re: lineups - get the best players in there and let them do what they do. Let Nimmo draw walks at the top and then get Lindor, Alonso, and Smith as many at bats as possible.
But can't be comfortable with what we have seen so far.
The bullpen/blown saves cost us the playoffs last year.
This is a really tough division and it's going to be a razor thin margin.
Can't be blowing leads or extending games, this game should have been over 45 minutes before it was.
Diaz warmed up twice that not good for any pitcher especially when we had a 5 run lead
RE: it's not freak out time the offense is going to win a lot of games
Hopefully Rojas has now learned his lesson early on re: lineups - get the best players in there and let them do what they do. Let Nimmo draw walks at the top and then get Lindor, Alonso, and Smith as many at bats as possible.
Nimmo leadoff and Dom in the lineup paid such immediate dividends that you gotta hope this is the case. Lineup is so talented - just go chalk and don't cute.
is right of course, but it seems like this is always the case the with Familia lately, if it's not a walk or a HR it's bad luck.
Quote:
Anthony Recker
@Anthony_Recker
·
20m
For those of you hating on Familia for last night... dude gave up a chopper and a blooper... got a little flustered and tried to do too much against Harper... but he threw the ball well aside from that walk. Hoskins 2b came off the bat at 52 mph...
😂
that's a big part of the bad luck when it comes to balls in play not turning into outs (including the near double play to end the game yesterday). It might even be in part why he goes outside the strike zone so much.
But that's also a big selling point - unlike just about everyone else in the pen including Diaz he has not given up an excessive amount of homers in his career. He still has his velocity/movement so it really comes down to limiting the walks and allowing weak contact. Some bad luck singles/bloops can be lived with imo.
Also hopefully by the time he gets in games the IF defense will be Guillorme, Lindor, McNeil and he can develop confidence in the guys behind him.
with high confidence and low pressure maybe he can succeed for stretches. But ultimately he throws a straight fastball with a lot of velocity and good big league hitters are going to turn on it even faster.
c'mon...that's a bit of a stretch. All relievers? Familia has been downright bad for awhile now. And for some reason, the Mets seem to think that he is somehow going to get back to his dominant year. It's never happening.
c'mon...that's a bit of a stretch. All relievers? Familia has been downright bad for awhile now. And for some reason, the Mets seem to think that he is somehow going to get back to his dominant year. It's never happening.
Ok all relievers other than Mariano Rivera?
And I'm not saying Familia hasn't been bad. He absolutely has. Just pointing out that Diaz has been a roller coaster even when he's been good. Even Lugo has been a roller coaster at times. Chapman has had his moments. Look at what Will Smith got paid last year and then how he performed. And Hendriks in this first week. That is the nature of high leverage relief pitching for everyone other than Mariano.
but there's a massive difference between Familia and the guys you mentioned. The top 20 type relievers are way more good than bad, they will have the occasional awful game and you live with it, it happens.
looks shot. Can't throw strikes when he has to. He had 2 straight bad seasons without any velocity loss. Very hard to see him having anything better than a mediocre season and THAT would be an upgrade.
is the type of guy, where if he gets the first man out, you stick with him and he likely has a fine inning. If he lets 1 man on, i would immediately pull him. too much risk for an absolute blow up inning.
those are impossibly bad control numbers. From 14-18 he was basically in the 3's each year which is about average. And in those years he didn't have very many issues pitching with men on (he was leaving guys on base at basically a 75%+ clip).
he has completely lost his control the last 2 years and until it returns he can not be trusted. But the stuff is still there if he can find it and we know how that stuff played in those 5 seasons.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
RE: Familia's bb/9 since returning the last 2 years are 6.4 and 9
those are impossibly bad control numbers. From 14-18 he was basically in the 3's each year which is about average. And in those years he didn't have very many issues pitching with men on (he was leaving guys on base at basically a 75%+ clip).
he has completely lost his control the last 2 years and until it returns he can not be trusted. But the stuff is still there if he can find it and we know how that stuff played in those 5 seasons.
Walked 7 in 7 innings this spring so other than "hey ya never know" what should make anybody optimistic that changes now?
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
Familia has gone nearly 100 games of pitching poorly. Diaz even when he was bad in 2019 was a 25 year old coming off a RIDICULOUS 2018 season. Familia is now with his 3rd pitching coach since returning and has yet to give any indication at all anything has changed (see ST)
leading into his 2019 (career) 188 games pitched 2.56 FIP. If Familia simply had a down 2020 there might be some optimism he'd "bounce back". He's now had 2 bad seasons (same issues) and a terrible ST.
He came out and 1st pitch put a 96 mph nasty sinker on the black...
Next pitch 97 same spot...dude barely touches it and hits a chopper off the plate for a cheap infield single.
Then gets ahead of the next guy 1-2... 97 MPH sinker on the black again, jams the hell out of the guy for a bloop double that landed just over Pete's head... error on the throw and a runner scores...
Now he has executed perfectly to 2 batters, and instead of having 2 outs.. he's given up a run and has a guy on 2nd with no outs.
I think he is mentally damaged from that 2015 World Series where the same shit happened. Executed great pitches and had terrible luck.
Because then from that point on last night, yes, he struggled. But he really looked fantastic those first 6 pitches.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
So one interesting thing re: Familia is that his current problems are not uncharted territory.
In 2012 and 2013 when he first entered the big leagues, his walk rates were also really high (6-7 per 9). This wasn't in a very big sample size, but his control in those first 22 innings was noticeably worse than any point in his minor league career.
In 2014 he regained his control to get back around 4 walks per 9, which was in line with his minor league career and became an effective reliever. In 2015 remember Mejia got suspended and unexpectedly forced Familia into the closing role where he then went on to have probably the best season any RP has ever had as a Met. His walk rate in 2015 was just 2 per 9 and his performance remained pretty solid as one of the best RP in baseball through 2018.
In the last 2 years things went back off the rails and he's thrown 86 mostly awful innings. Why that's happened is anyone's guess. Coaching, catching, injuries, mental, confidence, some combination of all of them. But it's at least semi encouraging that it did happen to him once before, and he was able to overcome it. Need that to happen again.
matchup, Peterson who allows a lot of contact vs. Nola (one of the most underrated SP in the sport). May likely isn't available, doubt Castro is either. So... Gsellman or Barnes or Betances might see time. Scary lol
He came out and 1st pitch put a 96 mph nasty sinker on the black...
Next pitch 97 same spot...dude barely touches it and hits a chopper off the plate for a cheap infield single.
Then gets ahead of the next guy 1-2... 97 MPH sinker on the black again, jams the hell out of the guy for a bloop double that landed just over Pete's head... error on the throw and a runner scores...
Now he has executed perfectly to 2 batters, and instead of having 2 outs.. he's given up a run and has a guy on 2nd with no outs.
I think he is mentally damaged from that 2015 World Series where the same shit happened. Executed great pitches and had terrible luck.
Because then from that point on last night, yes, he struggled. But he really looked fantastic those first 6 pitches.
I think there's a lot of truth in this. Even at his best he was more of a groundball and less of a strikeout pitcher than most closers. His career ground ball percentage is 56% and from 2014-2017 it was more like 60%. By comparison Diaz is 41%. Of last year's top 10 relievers by fwar just 2/10 were over 43%. And 6/10 were under 40%.
Familia has to be confident enough to pitch to contact because statistically speaking the highest probability outcome of most at bats against him is a ground ball.
and I actually think another part of his problems has been adapting to a middle relief role as opposed to closing.
if you have control issues and allow contact, it's much easier to know you are starting clean innings and not coming in with guys on base.
and we've also seen other closers have trouble adjusting to the uncertainty of middle relief not knowing when their number is getting called vs. the known of owning the 9th inning.
not incidentally that's why i think Lugo is heavily underrated out of the pen because like Andrew Miller he is one of the few elite relievers who has shown he can pitch effectively in a variety of roles.
It was nice to see Stroman pitch well against a good team
getting too cutesy again (see Dom sitting). First series of the year your bench doesn't need to start. Nola vs. Peterson is already slanted in the Phillies favor and at least one of the best RP (May is likely unavailable), Castro may be too. Weird call.
@jyamaz50
·
2m
I know first hand why you shouldn’t throw a change up 2-0 to Pete!! Did it once and never again did that happen
Meh.. I think the layoff is really understated all around for the team. These guys just haven't gotten work..looks like the hitters finally started getting a little more comfortable today.
May is going to be better... Lugo will come back.. we haven't even seen Diaz yet..I'm not sure it's time to freak out just yet.
but the roster does have some clear weaknesses. the defense gives up way too many extra outs and too many in the BP have poor control and/or difficulty with the long ball.
Hopefully Rojas has now learned his lesson early on re: lineups - get the best players in there and let them do what they do. Let Nimmo draw walks at the top and then get Lindor, Alonso, and Smith as many at bats as possible.
The bullpen/blown saves cost us the playoffs last year.
This is a really tough division and it's going to be a razor thin margin.
Can't be blowing leads or extending games, this game should have been over 45 minutes before it was.
Diaz warmed up twice that not good for any pitcher especially when we had a 5 run lead
Nimmo leadoff and Dom in the lineup paid such immediate dividends that you gotta hope this is the case. Lineup is so talented - just go chalk and don't cute.
@Anthony_Recker
·
20m
For those of you hating on Familia for last night... dude gave up a chopper and a blooper... got a little flustered and tried to do too much against Harper... but he threw the ball well aside from that walk. Hoskins 2b came off the bat at 52 mph...
😂
But that's also a big selling point - unlike just about everyone else in the pen including Diaz he has not given up an excessive amount of homers in his career. He still has his velocity/movement so it really comes down to limiting the walks and allowing weak contact. Some bad luck singles/bloops can be lived with imo.
Also hopefully by the time he gets in games the IF defense will be Guillorme, Lindor, McNeil and he can develop confidence in the guys behind him.
all relievers are some level of a roller coaster ride.
Ok all relievers other than Mariano Rivera?
And I'm not saying Familia hasn't been bad. He absolutely has. Just pointing out that Diaz has been a roller coaster even when he's been good. Even Lugo has been a roller coaster at times. Chapman has had his moments. Look at what Will Smith got paid last year and then how he performed. And Hendriks in this first week. That is the nature of high leverage relief pitching for everyone other than Mariano.
Familia is a nightmare every single time.
he has completely lost his control the last 2 years and until it returns he can not be trusted. But the stuff is still there if he can find it and we know how that stuff played in those 5 seasons.
Can you do that anymore? I thought that a pitcher had a 3 batter minimum?
Is it mental?
Mechanics?
Can coaching fix it?
So far it hasn't, doesn't mean it can't.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
he has completely lost his control the last 2 years and until it returns he can not be trusted. But the stuff is still there if he can find it and we know how that stuff played in those 5 seasons.
Walked 7 in 7 innings this spring so other than "hey ya never know" what should make anybody optimistic that changes now?
Is it mental?
Mechanics?
Can coaching fix it?
So far it hasn't, doesn't mean it can't.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
Familia has gone nearly 100 games of pitching poorly. Diaz even when he was bad in 2019 was a 25 year old coming off a RIDICULOUS 2018 season. Familia is now with his 3rd pitching coach since returning and has yet to give any indication at all anything has changed (see ST)
Next pitch 97 same spot...dude barely touches it and hits a chopper off the plate for a cheap infield single.
Then gets ahead of the next guy 1-2... 97 MPH sinker on the black again, jams the hell out of the guy for a bloop double that landed just over Pete's head... error on the throw and a runner scores...
Now he has executed perfectly to 2 batters, and instead of having 2 outs.. he's given up a run and has a guy on 2nd with no outs.
I think he is mentally damaged from that 2015 World Series where the same shit happened. Executed great pitches and had terrible luck.
Because then from that point on last night, yes, he struggled. But he really looked fantastic those first 6 pitches.
Is it mental?
Mechanics?
Can coaching fix it?
So far it hasn't, doesn't mean it can't.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
So one interesting thing re: Familia is that his current problems are not uncharted territory.
In 2012 and 2013 when he first entered the big leagues, his walk rates were also really high (6-7 per 9). This wasn't in a very big sample size, but his control in those first 22 innings was noticeably worse than any point in his minor league career.
In 2014 he regained his control to get back around 4 walks per 9, which was in line with his minor league career and became an effective reliever. In 2015 remember Mejia got suspended and unexpectedly forced Familia into the closing role where he then went on to have probably the best season any RP has ever had as a Met. His walk rate in 2015 was just 2 per 9 and his performance remained pretty solid as one of the best RP in baseball through 2018.
In the last 2 years things went back off the rails and he's thrown 86 mostly awful innings. Why that's happened is anyone's guess. Coaching, catching, injuries, mental, confidence, some combination of all of them. But it's at least semi encouraging that it did happen to him once before, and he was able to overcome it. Need that to happen again.
Paxton arm issues, Richards terrible for Boston, Rosenthal shut down with a shoulder issue, Hernandez 2-18
Quote:
If he lets 1 man on, i would immediately pull him. too much risk for an absolute blow up inning.
Can you do that anymore? I thought that a pitcher had a 3 batter minimum?
you are right, i forgot about the 3 batter minimum. so basically we are screwed either way..lol
This way, if he blows a game it's in the beginning and less heartbreaking.
lol
but seriously, and he has a history as a starter.
Next pitch 97 same spot...dude barely touches it and hits a chopper off the plate for a cheap infield single.
Then gets ahead of the next guy 1-2... 97 MPH sinker on the black again, jams the hell out of the guy for a bloop double that landed just over Pete's head... error on the throw and a runner scores...
Now he has executed perfectly to 2 batters, and instead of having 2 outs.. he's given up a run and has a guy on 2nd with no outs.
I think he is mentally damaged from that 2015 World Series where the same shit happened. Executed great pitches and had terrible luck.
Because then from that point on last night, yes, he struggled. But he really looked fantastic those first 6 pitches.
I think there's a lot of truth in this. Even at his best he was more of a groundball and less of a strikeout pitcher than most closers. His career ground ball percentage is 56% and from 2014-2017 it was more like 60%. By comparison Diaz is 41%. Of last year's top 10 relievers by fwar just 2/10 were over 43%. And 6/10 were under 40%.
Familia has to be confident enough to pitch to contact because statistically speaking the highest probability outcome of most at bats against him is a ground ball.
if you have control issues and allow contact, it's much easier to know you are starting clean innings and not coming in with guys on base.
and we've also seen other closers have trouble adjusting to the uncertainty of middle relief not knowing when their number is getting called vs. the known of owning the 9th inning.
not incidentally that's why i think Lugo is heavily underrated out of the pen because like Andrew Miller he is one of the few elite relievers who has shown he can pitch effectively in a variety of roles.
Threw 5 pitches at least 6 times including his new splitter 7 times.
In one respect I'm not surprised. Al was a flamethrower in his early years, even if he didn't have a clue where it was going.
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
4m
12 of Marcus Stroman’s 17* outs last night (70.6%) came on the ground.
(*He got a double play to total 13/18.)
Only four other #Mets pitchers – R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee, Jon Niese, and Mike Pelfrey – have been around that rate in a single outing since 2008.
Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
·
10m
Jeff McNeil vs. today's SP, Aaron Nola:
.273/.385/.455, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 RBI
Jonathan Villar vs. Nola:
.214/.333/.286, 2B, 3 SO
A bit surprised to see McNeil sitting three games in.
#Mets #LGM
Unreal!