is the type of guy, where if he gets the first man out, you stick with him and he likely has a fine inning. If he lets 1 man on, i would immediately pull him. too much risk for an absolute blow up inning.
those are impossibly bad control numbers. From 14-18 he was basically in the 3's each year which is about average. And in those years he didn't have very many issues pitching with men on (he was leaving guys on base at basically a 75%+ clip).
he has completely lost his control the last 2 years and until it returns he can not be trusted. But the stuff is still there if he can find it and we know how that stuff played in those 5 seasons.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
RE: Familia's bb/9 since returning the last 2 years are 6.4 and 9
those are impossibly bad control numbers. From 14-18 he was basically in the 3's each year which is about average. And in those years he didn't have very many issues pitching with men on (he was leaving guys on base at basically a 75%+ clip).
he has completely lost his control the last 2 years and until it returns he can not be trusted. But the stuff is still there if he can find it and we know how that stuff played in those 5 seasons.
Walked 7 in 7 innings this spring so other than "hey ya never know" what should make anybody optimistic that changes now?
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
Familia has gone nearly 100 games of pitching poorly. Diaz even when he was bad in 2019 was a 25 year old coming off a RIDICULOUS 2018 season. Familia is now with his 3rd pitching coach since returning and has yet to give any indication at all anything has changed (see ST)
leading into his 2019 (career) 188 games pitched 2.56 FIP. If Familia simply had a down 2020 there might be some optimism he'd "bounce back". He's now had 2 bad seasons (same issues) and a terrible ST.
He came out and 1st pitch put a 96 mph nasty sinker on the black...
Next pitch 97 same spot...dude barely touches it and hits a chopper off the plate for a cheap infield single.
Then gets ahead of the next guy 1-2... 97 MPH sinker on the black again, jams the hell out of the guy for a bloop double that landed just over Pete's head... error on the throw and a runner scores...
Now he has executed perfectly to 2 batters, and instead of having 2 outs.. he's given up a run and has a guy on 2nd with no outs.
I think he is mentally damaged from that 2015 World Series where the same shit happened. Executed great pitches and had terrible luck.
Because then from that point on last night, yes, he struggled. But he really looked fantastic those first 6 pitches.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
So one interesting thing re: Familia is that his current problems are not uncharted territory.
In 2012 and 2013 when he first entered the big leagues, his walk rates were also really high (6-7 per 9). This wasn't in a very big sample size, but his control in those first 22 innings was noticeably worse than any point in his minor league career.
In 2014 he regained his control to get back around 4 walks per 9, which was in line with his minor league career and became an effective reliever. In 2015 remember Mejia got suspended and unexpectedly forced Familia into the closing role where he then went on to have probably the best season any RP has ever had as a Met. His walk rate in 2015 was just 2 per 9 and his performance remained pretty solid as one of the best RP in baseball through 2018.
In the last 2 years things went back off the rails and he's thrown 86 mostly awful innings. Why that's happened is anyone's guess. Coaching, catching, injuries, mental, confidence, some combination of all of them. But it's at least semi encouraging that it did happen to him once before, and he was able to overcome it. Need that to happen again.
matchup, Peterson who allows a lot of contact vs. Nola (one of the most underrated SP in the sport). May likely isn't available, doubt Castro is either. So... Gsellman or Barnes or Betances might see time. Scary lol
He came out and 1st pitch put a 96 mph nasty sinker on the black...
Next pitch 97 same spot...dude barely touches it and hits a chopper off the plate for a cheap infield single.
Then gets ahead of the next guy 1-2... 97 MPH sinker on the black again, jams the hell out of the guy for a bloop double that landed just over Pete's head... error on the throw and a runner scores...
Now he has executed perfectly to 2 batters, and instead of having 2 outs.. he's given up a run and has a guy on 2nd with no outs.
I think he is mentally damaged from that 2015 World Series where the same shit happened. Executed great pitches and had terrible luck.
Because then from that point on last night, yes, he struggled. But he really looked fantastic those first 6 pitches.
I think there's a lot of truth in this. Even at his best he was more of a groundball and less of a strikeout pitcher than most closers. His career ground ball percentage is 56% and from 2014-2017 it was more like 60%. By comparison Diaz is 41%. Of last year's top 10 relievers by fwar just 2/10 were over 43%. And 6/10 were under 40%.
Familia has to be confident enough to pitch to contact because statistically speaking the highest probability outcome of most at bats against him is a ground ball.
and I actually think another part of his problems has been adapting to a middle relief role as opposed to closing.
if you have control issues and allow contact, it's much easier to know you are starting clean innings and not coming in with guys on base.
and we've also seen other closers have trouble adjusting to the uncertainty of middle relief not knowing when their number is getting called vs. the known of owning the 9th inning.
not incidentally that's why i think Lugo is heavily underrated out of the pen because like Andrew Miller he is one of the few elite relievers who has shown he can pitch effectively in a variety of roles.
It was nice to see Stroman pitch well against a good team
getting too cutesy again (see Dom sitting). First series of the year your bench doesn't need to start. Nola vs. Peterson is already slanted in the Phillies favor and at least one of the best RP (May is likely unavailable), Castro may be too. Weird call.
he has completely lost his control the last 2 years and until it returns he can not be trusted. But the stuff is still there if he can find it and we know how that stuff played in those 5 seasons.
Can you do that anymore? I thought that a pitcher had a 3 batter minimum?
Is it mental?
Mechanics?
Can coaching fix it?
So far it hasn't, doesn't mean it can't.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
he has completely lost his control the last 2 years and until it returns he can not be trusted. But the stuff is still there if he can find it and we know how that stuff played in those 5 seasons.
Walked 7 in 7 innings this spring so other than "hey ya never know" what should make anybody optimistic that changes now?
Is it mental?
Mechanics?
Can coaching fix it?
So far it hasn't, doesn't mean it can't.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
Familia has gone nearly 100 games of pitching poorly. Diaz even when he was bad in 2019 was a 25 year old coming off a RIDICULOUS 2018 season. Familia is now with his 3rd pitching coach since returning and has yet to give any indication at all anything has changed (see ST)
Next pitch 97 same spot...dude barely touches it and hits a chopper off the plate for a cheap infield single.
Then gets ahead of the next guy 1-2... 97 MPH sinker on the black again, jams the hell out of the guy for a bloop double that landed just over Pete's head... error on the throw and a runner scores...
Now he has executed perfectly to 2 batters, and instead of having 2 outs.. he's given up a run and has a guy on 2nd with no outs.
I think he is mentally damaged from that 2015 World Series where the same shit happened. Executed great pitches and had terrible luck.
Because then from that point on last night, yes, he struggled. But he really looked fantastic those first 6 pitches.
Is it mental?
Mechanics?
Can coaching fix it?
So far it hasn't, doesn't mean it can't.
If Diaz can be fixed which remains to be seen but is at least seeming like a possibility (and Diaz seemed like he was as bad as Familia in 2019) can Familia?
Fixing Familia or replacing him seems like a necessity for the 2021 Mets.
So one interesting thing re: Familia is that his current problems are not uncharted territory.
In 2012 and 2013 when he first entered the big leagues, his walk rates were also really high (6-7 per 9). This wasn't in a very big sample size, but his control in those first 22 innings was noticeably worse than any point in his minor league career.
In 2014 he regained his control to get back around 4 walks per 9, which was in line with his minor league career and became an effective reliever. In 2015 remember Mejia got suspended and unexpectedly forced Familia into the closing role where he then went on to have probably the best season any RP has ever had as a Met. His walk rate in 2015 was just 2 per 9 and his performance remained pretty solid as one of the best RP in baseball through 2018.
In the last 2 years things went back off the rails and he's thrown 86 mostly awful innings. Why that's happened is anyone's guess. Coaching, catching, injuries, mental, confidence, some combination of all of them. But it's at least semi encouraging that it did happen to him once before, and he was able to overcome it. Need that to happen again.
Paxton arm issues, Richards terrible for Boston, Rosenthal shut down with a shoulder issue, Hernandez 2-18
Quote:
If he lets 1 man on, i would immediately pull him. too much risk for an absolute blow up inning.
Can you do that anymore? I thought that a pitcher had a 3 batter minimum?
you are right, i forgot about the 3 batter minimum. so basically we are screwed either way..lol
This way, if he blows a game it's in the beginning and less heartbreaking.
lol
but seriously, and he has a history as a starter.
Next pitch 97 same spot...dude barely touches it and hits a chopper off the plate for a cheap infield single.
Then gets ahead of the next guy 1-2... 97 MPH sinker on the black again, jams the hell out of the guy for a bloop double that landed just over Pete's head... error on the throw and a runner scores...
Now he has executed perfectly to 2 batters, and instead of having 2 outs.. he's given up a run and has a guy on 2nd with no outs.
I think he is mentally damaged from that 2015 World Series where the same shit happened. Executed great pitches and had terrible luck.
Because then from that point on last night, yes, he struggled. But he really looked fantastic those first 6 pitches.
I think there's a lot of truth in this. Even at his best he was more of a groundball and less of a strikeout pitcher than most closers. His career ground ball percentage is 56% and from 2014-2017 it was more like 60%. By comparison Diaz is 41%. Of last year's top 10 relievers by fwar just 2/10 were over 43%. And 6/10 were under 40%.
Familia has to be confident enough to pitch to contact because statistically speaking the highest probability outcome of most at bats against him is a ground ball.
if you have control issues and allow contact, it's much easier to know you are starting clean innings and not coming in with guys on base.
and we've also seen other closers have trouble adjusting to the uncertainty of middle relief not knowing when their number is getting called vs. the known of owning the 9th inning.
not incidentally that's why i think Lugo is heavily underrated out of the pen because like Andrew Miller he is one of the few elite relievers who has shown he can pitch effectively in a variety of roles.
Threw 5 pitches at least 6 times including his new splitter 7 times.
In one respect I'm not surprised. Al was a flamethrower in his early years, even if he didn't have a clue where it was going.
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
4m
12 of Marcus Stroman’s 17* outs last night (70.6%) came on the ground.
(*He got a double play to total 13/18.)
Only four other #Mets pitchers – R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee, Jon Niese, and Mike Pelfrey – have been around that rate in a single outing since 2008.
Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
·
10m
Jeff McNeil vs. today's SP, Aaron Nola:
.273/.385/.455, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 RBI
Jonathan Villar vs. Nola:
.214/.333/.286, 2B, 3 SO
A bit surprised to see McNeil sitting three games in.
#Mets #LGM
Unreal!