(The punchline if you don't want to read all this blah, blah, blah: Devonta Smith and/or Jaylen Waddle.)
Since the talent at the very top of each Draft varies quite a lot from year to year, this is hardly a data science exercise, but here's something to consider. Below is the distribution of positions selected in the Top 10 over the past 11 Drafts (2010 - 2020):
QB 23
OT 16
DE 14
CB 11
WR 11
LB 10
DT 7
RB 7
OG 3
S 3
ILB 2
TE 2
OLB 1
Total 110
Not surprisingly, QBs are at the very top with 23 selected in Top 10. And it's a real good bet that at least 3 (probably 4) QBs will go in the Top 10 this April.
The second most drafted position is offensive tackle with 16 players selected. It is not inconceivable, therefore, that we could see both Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater off the Board before the Giants come to the podium. Based on most Value Boards, these would not be reaches, and we do have a history of OTs going high in the Draft.
Right behind offensive tackle is defensive end (or EDGE) with 14 players selected. 2021 is not shaping up as a glamour draft for this position. There are no Chase Youngs; no Nick & Joey Bosas; no DeForrest Buckners; etc. But, still, there are several DEs/EDGE players that have been Mocked later on in Round One. Could one of them get pushed up into the Top 10? Based on history and the premium of the position, I think there's a pretty good chance.
Stay with me now. So far, that comes to 4 QBs, 2 OTs and 1 DE going in the Top Ten. Based on most Value Boards, we can also throw in WR Ja'Marr Chase and TE Kyle Pitts**. That comes to 9 players, and after these selections, you can Mock this Draft anyway you choose, but it always leaves either Devonte Smith and/or Jason Waddle available when the Giants come to the podium.
** If I had to speculate which player may "surprisingly" drop in this draft, it might be Kyle Pitts. Undoubtedly a great player, but also a hybrid one, part TE/part WR. And history is against TEs going in the Top 10, with only two selected since the 2010 Draft.
I personally think of the 2 WR that Waddle is who I would go with mainly because of his built, toughness, speed and versatility.
I do see a chance for Smith and Waddle to be there. I wish we knew just how Waddle's ankle healed. He, to me, would be the guy because he would be the speed guy underneath. I can see Shepard being let go next season. If they took Smith, I could see Slayton as that speed guy.
If Fields is the 5th QB, for the 1st time in a long time for me, I can see DG dropping back for an extra #2 or #3 with NE the team that does jump in. I still have a hard time seeing Matt Jones going the SF over Fields or Trey.
The Giants will walk away with a very good player at either #11 or #15.
Here's the list of Top 10 Draft Selections (2010 - 2020) for QBs and OL:
OG
Chance Warmack
Jonathan Cooper
Quenton Nelson †
OT
Andrew Thomas
Brandon Scherff †
Ereck Flowers
Eric Fisher †
Greg Robinson
Jack Conklin
Jake Matthews †
Jedrick Wills
Lane Johnson †
Luke Joeckel
Matt Kalil †
Mike McGlinchey
Ronnie Stanley †
Russell Okung †
Trent Williams †
Tyron Smith †
QB
Andrew Luck †
Baker Mayfield
Blaine Gabbert
Blake Bortles
Cam Newton †
Carson Wentz †
Daniel Jones
Jake Locker
Jameis Winston †
Jared Goff †
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen †
Josh Rosen
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray †
Marcus Mariota
Mitchell Trubisky †
Patrick Mahomes †
Robert Griffin III †
Ryan Tannehill †
Sam Bradford
Sam Darnold
Tua Tagovailoa
I agree, but it's a position teams covet. Remember the Raiders picking Clelin Ferrell at #4? No one saw that coming. There's usually a surprise or two in the top 10 although this year it seems there's a somewhat solid consensus around the top 12 (4 QB's, 3 WR's, 2 OT's, 1 TE, 1 CB, 1 LB) with a mix of players that hover below that group but can vault in depending on the team (i.e., Mac Jones).
The general problem is that our offensive linemen just haven’t been good. Is that a scouting problem (scouts not finding the best), a coaching problem, or a mentality problem?