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Past Top 10 Draft Picks Clue to Who Falls to Giants at #11?

M.S. : 4/7/2021 7:00 am

(The punchline if you don't want to read all this blah, blah, blah: Devonta Smith and/or Jaylen Waddle.)

Since the talent at the very top of each Draft varies quite a lot from year to year, this is hardly a data science exercise, but here's something to consider. Below is the distribution of positions selected in the Top 10 over the past 11 Drafts (2010 - 2020):

QB 23
OT 16
DE 14
CB 11
WR 11
LB 10
DT 7
RB 7
OG 3
S 3
TE 2
Total 110

Not surprisingly, QBs are at the very top with 23 selected in Top 10. And it's a real good bet that at least 3 (probably 4) QBs will go in the Top 10 this April.

The second most drafted position is offensive tackle with 16 players selected. It is not inconceivable, therefore, that we could see both Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater off the Board before the Giants come to the podium. Based on most Value Boards, these would not be reaches, and we do have a history of OTs going high in the Draft.

Right behind offensive tackle is defensive end (or EDGE) with 14 players selected. 2021 is not shaping up as a glamour draft for this position. There are no Chase Youngs; no Nick & Joey Bosas; no DeForrest Buckners; etc. But, still, there are several DEs/EDGE players that have been Mocked later on in Round One. Could one of them get pushed up into the Top 10? Based on history and the premium of the position, I think there's a pretty good chance.

Stay with me now. So far, that comes to 4 QBs, 2 OTs and 1 DE going in the Top Ten. Based on most Value Boards, we can also throw in WR Ja'Marr Chase and TE Kyle Pitts**. That comes to 9 players, and after these selections, you can Mock this Draft anyway you choose, but it always leaves either Devonte Smith and/or Jason Waddle available when the Giants come to the podium.

** If I had to speculate which player may "surprisingly" drop in this draft, it might be Kyle Pitts. Undoubtedly a great player, but also a hybrid one, part TE/part WR. And history is against TEs going in the Top 10, with only two selected since the 2010 Draft.

Nice write up MS  
Rjanyg : 4/7/2021 7:08 am : link
I think between value, position need, talent and the Judge/Saban connection, I can see one of the Bama receivers being the pick and I would no issue with either.

I personally think of the 2 WR that Waddle is who I would go with mainly because of his built, toughness, speed and versatility.
It will be a miracle  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 4/7/2021 7:15 am : link
If Pitts falls. He didn’t drop a ball last year and has the largest wingspan of any receiver in the last 20 years. Take the TE tag off him. He is a physical freak with the production to back it up.
Draft is so unpredictable  
section125 : 4/7/2021 7:18 am : link
But I agree 4 QBs def go top 10, with a chance at 5. Sewell is likely to go and Slater may. For certain Chase will go. I do not see any edge at all, maybe not even out to 15. I do think Surtain will go with a chance that Horn goes too. Need great CBs in this passing league. Farley would have had a good chance to except for the Back surgery. Do not count out Surtain at 11 if the Cowboys pass.

I do see a chance for Smith and Waddle to be there. I wish we knew just how Waddle's ankle healed. He, to me, would be the guy because he would be the speed guy underneath. I can see Shepard being let go next season. If they took Smith, I could see Slayton as that speed guy.

If Fields is the 5th QB, for the 1st time in a long time for me, I can see DG dropping back for an extra #2 or #3 with NE the team that does jump in. I still have a hard time seeing Matt Jones going the SF over Fields or Trey.

The Giants will walk away with a very good player at either #11 or #15.
I wonder the failure rate of these picks by position  
George from PA : 4/7/2021 8:04 am : link
Certainly...the QBs and OL is high
RE: I wonder the failure rate of these picks by position  
M.S. : 4/7/2021 8:19 am : link
In comment 15212299 George from PA said:
Certainly...the QBs and OL is high

Here's the list of Top 10 Draft Selections (2010 - 2020) for QBs and OL:

Chance Warmack 
Jonathan Cooper 
Quenton Nelson †

Andrew Thomas 
Brandon Scherff †
Ereck Flowers 
Eric Fisher †
Greg Robinson 
Jack Conklin 
Jake Matthews †
Jedrick Wills 
Lane Johnson †
Luke Joeckel 
Matt Kalil †
Mike McGlinchey 
Ronnie Stanley †
Russell Okung †
Trent Williams †
Tyron Smith †

Andrew Luck †
Baker Mayfield 
Blaine Gabbert 
Blake Bortles 
Cam Newton †
Carson Wentz †
Daniel Jones 
Jake Locker 
Jameis Winston †
Jared Goff †
Joe Burrow 
Josh Allen †
Josh Rosen 
Justin Herbert 
Kyler Murray †
Marcus Mariota 
Mitchell Trubisky †
Patrick Mahomes †
Robert Griffin III †
Ryan Tannehill †
Sam Bradford 
Sam Darnold 
Tua Tagovailoa 

RE: Draft is so unpredictable  
HMunster : 4/7/2021 8:43 am : link
In comment 15212282 section125 said:
I do not see any edge at all, maybe not even out to 15.

I agree, but it's a position teams covet. Remember the Raiders picking Clelin Ferrell at #4? No one saw that coming. There's usually a surprise or two in the top 10 although this year it seems there's a somewhat solid consensus around the top 12 (4 QB's, 3 WR's, 2 OT's, 1 TE, 1 CB, 1 LB) with a mix of players that hover below that group but can vault in depending on the team (i.e., Mac Jones).
Giants must  
PaulN : 4/7/2021 4:58 pm : link
End the offensive line issues, they take a wideout then they are making a mistake, fix this OLine once and for all. Everyone screams about it then wants a wide reciever, unreal.b
RE: Giants must  
Angel Eyes : 4/7/2021 5:02 pm : link
In comment 15213018 PaulN said:
End the offensive line issues, they take a wideout then they are making a mistake, fix this OLine once and for all. Everyone screams about it then wants a wide reciever, unreal.b

The general problem is that our offensive linemen just haven’t been good. Is that a scouting problem (scouts not finding the best), a coaching problem, or a mentality problem?
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