This upcoming draft makes 10 years of drafts since the rookie wage scale was introduced, and the concept of a rookie QB contract being a team building advantage. To get a sense of how drafting QBs changed in 2011, take a look at the contracts for Sam Bradford (drafted in 2010 under the old CBA) and Cam Newton (drafted in 2011 and paid after the end of the lockout):
2010 #1 pick Sam Bradford: 6 years, $78M
2011 #1 pick Cam Newton: 4 years, $22M
Consider that Joe Burrow was drafted just last year, and his 4 year, $36M contract still isn't half of what Bradford got ten years ago. It really was a "before & after" line, and I wonder the extent to which it changed the way teams look at drafting quarterbacks.
I also started thinking about the last 10 years of 1st round QBs as a group. The table below contains the college career stats of every QB drafted in the first round from 2011-2020. I added the five likely first rounders in the upcoming draft, as well as significant non-first round picks that stuck and made significant impacts in the NFL. This last group is obviously subjective, but I don't know that I'm missing much by excluding the Geno Smiths of the world.
- CAPS denotes a QB that played a big role in getting to a Super Bowl ("big role" really just referring to Carson Wentz; all other QBs in CAPS started a Super Bowl game)
- * denotes a QB who was not picked in the first round; there are 13 of these QBs
- Strikethrough denotes a QB who flamed out and was quickly out of the league
- Sports Reference didn't have all of Garoppolo's stats, so I just included what they had
Every statistical category is shaded green (high rank) to red (low rank), but the QBs are sorted by their college passer rating. I also included their college and NFL AY/A next to each other. AY/A is a pretty good catch-all stat, and is calculated by (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts).
Two thoughts:
1. I thought the number of QBs over this 10 year period would be larger than it is (49, 36 drafted in round 1). But maybe that feels about right? A shade under 5 QBs per draft on average?
2. You can see how passing efficiency has really gone up. I am reminded of Nick Saban's recent admission that you have to outscore people now...no surprise that the two highest rated QBs are his last two. Lincoln Riley's guys also stand out: Murray, Mayfield, and Hurts.
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fumble. Eli knew when to hold em and when to fold him. He made a lot of business decisions towards the end. Some called him gutless for, but the alternative might be what you're seeing from Jones.
I think the turning point for Eli may have been the hit he took against Washington in 2016. Thank Weston Richburg for that.
That is an astute observation, and it very well could be. That was a vicious shot.
Agree with this. But simply being hit less will cut down a lot of those fumbles significantly. But he does need to protect the ball better as well.
Luckily he seems to do a good job of that as a runner. His main problems with fumbling tend to be when he holds the ball too long in the pocket or behind the LOS.
That's different than how the 2 events should be viewed from the standpoint of grading those events against a QB. If a QB get's hit because an OL misses an assignment and fumbles, that's a lot less of a reflection on his capability as a player than throwing a ball he shouldn't have that gets picked off - even though the outcome of the first scenario ends up worse in terms of field position.
Jones worst plays this past year were the INTs he forced early in the season as opposed to just throwing the ball away. Had he fumbled on those same exact plays the field position may have been better for the opposition but that doesn't make the bad decision to throw the ball less bad. In many of those situations taking the sack was the right decision though obviously you wouldn't want to negate that correct decision with a fumble.
Krieg - 34 fumbles in 30 games in '89-'90 (1.13/game)
Moon - 29 fumbles in 31 games in '89-'90 (or '90-'91) (.94/game)
Collins - 32 fumbles in 32 games in '01-'02 (1.00/game)
Jones - 29 fumbles in 27 games in '19-'20 (1.07/game)
I did find a guy who was worse than all of them...
Daunte Culpepper fumbled 16, 23, and 16 times in 2001, 2002, and 2003. Incredible.
Wow. Jones has got to be able to improve on this while still finding ways to lift up his game and the Offense. Some of the free agent additions and hopefully some more investment in the OL during the draft will also help.
But there is no debate, this is historically bad.
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Ball security prior to the NFL. How he carries the ball needed work, probably play to play awareness as well. Bad pass protection certainly plays its role. From my view there are issues beyond pass protection that need attention to get past this fumbling issue.
Agree with this. But simply being hit less will cut down a lot of those fumbles significantly. But he does need to protect the ball better as well.
Luckily he seems to do a good job of that as a runner. His main problems with fumbling tend to be when he holds the ball too long in the pocket or behind the LOS.
Britt, my main hope for Jones is that he seems to want to get better and from all accounts works hard.
Secondary is this coaching staff, their emphasis on teaching gives me hope as well. Grouping a coaching staff that is all about proper teaching with a player that wants to work, and accepts teaching can go a really long way, although, and it must be said, guarantees nothing.
I hope you are well.
Jones has had major issue thus far with turnovers, especially fumbles. It's an issue that must be corrected if he wants to stay in the league as a starting qb.
Yep, a must and that will go a long way in validating his selection as the #6 overall pick...
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Jones has had major issue thus far with turnovers, especially fumbles. It's an issue that must be corrected if he wants to stay in the league as a starting qb.
Yep, a must and that will go a long way in validating his selection as the #6 overall pick...
Certainly, Missing on a top five pick or right outside the top 5 is a tough blow. At the very least in my opinion you want an impact player, while hoping for a HOF player.
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In comment 15220138 crick n NC said:
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Jones has had major issue thus far with turnovers, especially fumbles. It's an issue that must be corrected if he wants to stay in the league as a starting qb.
Yep, a must and that will go a long way in validating his selection as the #6 overall pick...
Certainly, Missing on a top five pick or right outside the top 5 is a tough blow. At the very least in my opinion you want an impact player, while hoping for a HOF player.
Yep on impact. And the reality is many of us are really just hoping our #6 pick improves enough to solidify his starting job in Year 3.
Otherwise, the Giants have less options and must consider yet another QB in 2022...
That's different than how the 2 events should be viewed from the standpoint of grading those events against a QB. If a QB get's hit because an OL misses an assignment and fumbles, that's a lot less of a reflection on his capability as a player than throwing a ball he shouldn't have that gets picked off - even though the outcome of the first scenario ends up worse in terms of field position.
Jones worst plays this past year were the INTs he forced early in the season as opposed to just throwing the ball away. Had he fumbled on those same exact plays the field position may have been better for the opposition but that doesn't make the bad decision to throw the ball less bad. In many of those situations taking the sack was the right decision though obviously you wouldn't want to negate that correct decision with a fumble.
If you are looking at total turnovers, I would rather have a QB whose turnovers are more interception based than fumble based. Not all interceptions are created equal just as not all fumbles are created equal. With an interception, if the QB is making the right read and puts it in the right spot, but the TE has it his hands and it goes righto into defender's arms that is not on the QB. If the QB is trying to make a play that has little hope of success rather than throwing it away and living for the next down or misreads basic coverage schemes that worries me about a QB. Similarly if a fumble is caused because his blindside is not giving QB any time and D makes a great play on a ball that is being held properly that is hard to blame on a QB. The problem with Jones is that too many fumbles were due to holding onto the ball too long, not accounting for blindside, and overall being too easy to separate the ball from. If we are going to exercise the 5th year option, those fumbles need to really drop.
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In comment 15220373 Jimmy Googs said:
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In comment 15220138 crick n NC said:
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Jones has had major issue thus far with turnovers, especially fumbles. It's an issue that must be corrected if he wants to stay in the league as a starting qb.
Yep, a must and that will go a long way in validating his selection as the #6 overall pick...
Certainly, Missing on a top five pick or right outside the top 5 is a tough blow. At the very least in my opinion you want an impact player, while hoping for a HOF player.
Yep on impact. And the reality is many of us are really just hoping our #6 pick improves enough to solidify his starting job in Year 3.
Otherwise, the Giants have less options and must consider yet another QB in 2022...
Yep, exciting, yet Nerve-racking year in regards to the starting qb position for nyg.
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I thought your schtick was all about drafting young QB's with the ability to run, using them up/discarding them and allocating the salary cap to a balanced roster (with almost no high paid players, except those who are ELITE being the only ones deserving).
I would have thought you would love to try to use up DJ on this rookie contract while we build out a team.
I haven't switched. I believe that more than ever. The thing is, Jones isn't any good. Further, I believe there's a good chance the Giants will use him less as a runner this year, as a reaction to his injury last year.
It's academic, obviously. They are going to "give" him this year (I hate that thinking), and none of the 1st round QBs worth looking at are going to drop to us anyway.
But if for whatever reason Lance falls to us...do it.
The way the Giants are currently setup actually makes the most sense and building a balanced team around DJ is actually what aligns with your preference. If DJ doesn't perform this year, they are not financially committed to him and they can just as easily look to drafting or acquiring another QB.
He's never had a balanced team around him. You never said that these young QB's with running ability were also going to be Franchise players - because then you do run the risk of losing your franchise when they go down. You can't have it both ways.
This. He’ll get another year to do so.
Right now there's not much to do - Jones is going to be the guy. There is no backup to sign to challenge him, and Lance seems unlikely to be there at 11. If Lance were available I think picking Lance and trading Jones makes a ton of sense.
Not happening though.
Then what happened was...I stopped being a fucking toddler.
Once he came to camp he was a Giant, he had a good rookie year. They fired the coaches, installed a new offense with Covid remote learning, Barkley got injured and he had a terrible sophomore season. Piss fucking poor.
I could have spent this off-season whining that I was right on draft day.
But...The kid can actually play. I throw out last year for the ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRY. I don't judge students, businesses or any fucking body because life was so fucking hard for all of us.
Let's let the chips fall where they may in 2021. If he is 2020 bad he can GTFO. If he has a good year.
GREAT FOR ALL GIANT FANS!!!!!
Chill out have a beer or smoke a fatty depending on where you live.
That's being critical but also being realistic.
Not working out too bad. And I still get to enjoy rooting for the team.
How's that working out for you?
You live rent free in their heads GT.
That's being critical but also being realistic.
Brown nose...
Link - ( New Window )
If you watch the play linked below (against Virginia Tech) it's hard not to think about the late and inaccurate throw to Dion Lewis on the critical 2-point conversion against Tampa.
"One area where Jones must improve is his processing." - ( New Window )
No one disagrees.
No one.
He is getting year 3 no matter what QB is there at 11.
Find me anyone believes differently.
Does it cause you any pause that you are alone on your hill except for a few BBI posters that are consistently negative on all things related to Dave Gettleman?
Jones was my remote throw pick. He was the absolute last QB I wanted. I would have happily had Haskins. I wanted Rosen the year before. Jones had a decent rookie. I was impressed by the actual throws he made.
Isn't it possible his sophomore season slump was impacted by a change of coaching staff, covid remote learning, almost completely new OL, losing his best offensive player and a bottom of the NFL group?
That makes sense to everyone but you.
He gets year 3.
End of story.
I realize that's the Giants' strategy. It's just a bad strategy.
I realize that's the Giants' strategy. It's just a bad strategy.
That is the strategy nearly every team employs when it comes to a drafted QB. Who is Kyler Murray's backup? Who was Goff's backup? Who did the Redskins have to bring in this coming year because Haskins failed? who was Darnold's backup?
Highly drafted QB's are going to get a certain amount of time to develop, especially if they have flashed or sustained good play.
You act like this is a strategy the Giants employ that is somehow different from the norm, and it is disingenuous at best. But it's what you do.
Haskins...Ron Rivera brought his guy (Kyle Allen) with him from Carolina because he knew Haskins was a problem. You know the conversation between Rivera and Snyder went like this: "I know you hand picked Haskins. I'll start the season with him, but I'm bringing someone I'm familiar with from Carolina with me because I don't trust Haskins. The moment he fucks up, he's out." And that's exactly what happened.
And Darnold...that's the cautionary tale! Don't be like the Jets and have no plan in case the draft pick sucks.
Jones has been poor these two years. Poor. I'm sorry you can't (or don't want to) see it.
Maybe the breakdown linked below (written June 30, 2020 BEFORE his nightmare second season) will help you see the light.
True or False: Is Daniel Jones a franchise quarterback? - ( New Window )
"While Jones looks the part off the field and before the snap, he struggles mentally between the whistles.
His decent mobility and average are strength are not adequate to compensate for this flaw."
Tell me that's not what we've seen after two seasons.
Link - ( New Window )
Go Terps : 2:21 pm : link : reply
Kyler Murray has passed and rushed for 61 TDs in 2 seasons. Jared Goff had a 28/7, 8.5 AY/A season in year two, going 11-4 as a starter. Those are not two guys you want to compare Jones to, because he only looks terrible by comparison.
You called Jones a scholarship player GOING INTO LAST YEAR. You wanted him challenged in year 2 by a mediocre backup.
Nick Mullens.
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FMIC
Go Terps : 2:21 pm : link : reply
Kyler Murray has passed and rushed for 61 TDs in 2 seasons. Jared Goff had a 28/7, 8.5 AY/A season in year two, going 11-4 as a starter. Those are not two guys you want to compare Jones to, because he only looks terrible by comparison.
You called Jones a scholarship player GOING INTO LAST YEAR. You wanted him challenged in year 2 by a mediocre backup.
Nick Mullens.
Don't forget trading Jones and drafting a player who every talking head says needs a redshirt year in 2021 (Trey Lance) and who may never be as good as what we have in Jones
And Mullens is a better player than Jones. Doesn't make him Johnny Unitas, but you don't have to be very good to be better than Jones. Mullens was poor in 2020, and he was still better than Jones was. It's a very low bar.
Just look at the game in Philly this year, I do not see Mullens executing to the extent Jones did. Which included almost a 90 yard TD run and some very nice throws (including the Engram drop).
The 2nd Philly game as well. It included a nice TD run from Jones and some really high level throws.
Going by eyeball test alone, Jones is the better player. Mullens is also unsigned I believe. There is no way Daniel Jones would be sitting on his couch unsigned if he was a free agent.
I wouldn't really view those guys as competition on day one.
I wouldn't really view those guys as competition on day one.
It's tough to have warning signs on hypothetical situations.
What we know is that GT openly advocates to bring in a backup to challenge for the job, and he would expect them to win it.
I'd expect Jones to be able to beat those guys out.
I wouldn't really view those guys as competition on day one.
If you look at the numbers, Mike Glennon is comparable to Tyrod Taylor and Jacoby Brissett at a fraction of the price. Why overpay for a back-up who may or may not be better than your starting QB because if he isn't better that it is a lot of unnecessary cap space. The difference of Glennon vs. what Taylor or Brissett would cost is equivalent to multiple C.J. Board's vs. UDFA Rookie
I think Jones is a bad game manager QB. He'll turn the ball over and needs some big, explosive plays to compensate for it. Which is fine, but we need to modify the offense accordingly. It's why I hated Garrett's 2020 offense for him.
I think the Giants did the right thing prioritizing other positions over backup QB. And I'm 'fine' with Glennon. But I'd have liked a better option.
I doubt it will be a competition. Brissett will be the backup and if Tua fails, they will bring in a new starter completely.
I think Jones is a bad game manager QB. He'll turn the ball over and needs some big, explosive plays to compensate for it. Which is fine, but we need to modify the offense accordingly. It's why I hated Garrett's 2020 offense for him.
I think the Giants did the right thing prioritizing other positions over backup QB. And I'm 'fine' with Glennon. But I'd have liked a better option.
Glennon has more INT, but his TD% was higher despite far inferior talent than Brissett had. Brissett was also not asked to throw as much down the field as Glennon. Taylor also had low INT, but he also had low TD% and the last time he played as many games as Glennon did in 2020 was 2017. I am also concerned about Taylor's high sack totals. The only time Glennon had more than 3 sacks per game was his rookie year in 2013. He has never been known for his mobility, but despite Jacksonville's weak OL he only had 9 sacks in 5 games last year. Throwing out last year because it was basically 1 start, in 2018 he had 13 sacks in 85 pass attempts over 4 games (3 starts). That is really bad. In 2017 he had 46 sacks in 15 games (14 starts). In 2016 he had 42 sacks in 15 games (15 starts).
I was satisfied with the Glennon signing - McCoy was far too limited physically IMO.
I was satisfied with the Glennon signing - McCoy was far too limited physically IMO.
Yes you are trading off INT's with Glennon for more ability to go down the field and he is more likely to throw the ball away than take a sack
The picture is comprehensive. I'm not making it up, and I'm not lacking for evidence.
The picture is comprehensive. I'm not making it up, and I'm not lacking for evidence.
You still just don't get it do you?
Nobody is saying Jones doesn't have work to do. Nobody is saying he's a great QB. Most reasonable people realize he's getting this year to prove that he can be the guy.
What you are saying, and have been saying is that your view of him is indisputably correct. That you know more than those who have worked with him daily. That you know the outcome and that Jones is just on the roster out of hubris by the GM.
You've convinced yourself - I'm not sure why you think everyone else needs to be on board with you.
It is borderline psychotic at this point.
The irony in this statement by Clownshoes is shocking!