This upcoming draft makes 10 years of drafts since the rookie wage scale was introduced, and the concept of a rookie QB contract being a team building advantage. To get a sense of how drafting QBs changed in 2011, take a look at the contracts for Sam Bradford (drafted in 2010 under the old CBA) and Cam Newton (drafted in 2011 and paid after the end of the lockout):
2010 #1 pick Sam Bradford: 6 years, $78M
2011 #1 pick Cam Newton: 4 years, $22M
Consider that Joe Burrow was drafted just last year, and his 4 year, $36M contract still isn't half of what Bradford got ten years ago. It really was a "before & after" line, and I wonder the extent to which it changed the way teams look at drafting quarterbacks.
I also started thinking about the last 10 years of 1st round QBs as a group. The table below contains the college career stats of every QB drafted in the first round from 2011-2020. I added the five likely first rounders in the upcoming draft, as well as significant non-first round picks that stuck and made significant impacts in the NFL. This last group is obviously subjective, but I don't know that I'm missing much by excluding the Geno Smiths of the world.
- CAPS denotes a QB that played a big role in getting to a Super Bowl ("big role" really just referring to Carson Wentz; all other QBs in CAPS started a Super Bowl game)
- * denotes a QB who was not picked in the first round; there are 13 of these QBs
- Strikethrough denotes a QB who flamed out and was quickly out of the league
- Sports Reference didn't have all of Garoppolo's stats, so I just included what they had
Every statistical category is shaded green (high rank) to red (low rank), but the QBs are sorted by their college passer rating. I also included their college and NFL AY/A next to each other. AY/A is a pretty good catch-all stat, and is calculated by (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts).
Two thoughts:
1. I thought the number of QBs over this 10 year period would be larger than it is (49, 36 drafted in round 1). But maybe that feels about right? A shade under 5 QBs per draft on average?
2. You can see how passing efficiency has really gone up. I am reminded of Nick Saban's recent admission that you have to outscore people now...no surprise that the two highest rated QBs are his last two. Lincoln Riley's guys also stand out: Murray, Mayfield, and Hurts.
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Is Jones the only one that's had to deal with someone dropping passes, or some other form of bad luck?
That list covers over 50000 passes thrown by 49 college QBs in a 10 year period. It's a pretty good sample size. Are we really going to believe that Jones's poor AY/A and TD% in college and the pros are because of a series of unfortunate events that only befell him?
Sample sizes across different QB's and systems don't mean much. How many of those QB's have stable AY/A??
Here's a few examples for you. Brett Favre had AY/A's of 5.0, 5.2, 5.6, 5.6 and AY/A's of 7.9, 7.9, 7.6 and 7.4
His last season with the Pack was 7.8. Went to the Jets and had a 6.7. Went to Minny and had a 7.9. What is stable about his stat??
Carson Wentz has had AY/A's of 5.7, 8.3, 7.9, 7.0 and 5.3. A lot of fluctuation.
Tannehill has had AY/A's of 6.1, 6.2, 6.9, 7.1, 7.3, 7.0, 10.2 and 8.7
Trying to pigeon-hole consistency to a metric that varies a lot is disingenuous.
It hasn't varied with Jones going back to Duke. At Duke: 6.4, 5.5, 6.9. At NYG: 6.5, 6.1. Consistent. Consistently poor.
Makes you wonder what they were looking at when they drafted him.
That's one measurable I tend to buy as something that might convey from one level to the next.
Doesn't mean they are correct (or incorrect) or that others cannot take more time before they are comfortable passing those judgments. It seems like the Giants/Judge are taking more time...at least until the 2021 Draft is complete.
But the goal should be to discuss and debate all-things NYG.
Unless you choose not to which is fine too...
just is an immutable reality about football.
my point is that the vast majority of posts about QBs are going to wind up based on emotion, speculation, some factoids and a bunch of opinion laden argumentation. including the vast majority of my posts about QB play.
i doubt that even coaches with 5x our available data can rise above opinion laden argumentation when it comes to QB evaluation
1) Lets watch and note when the goal is reached.
2) Lets note the first day when we dont have posts from posters who everyday for years wake up and spend their day putting down other posters while generating almost no useful insights of their own.
Doesn't mean they are correct (or incorrect) or that others cannot take more time before they are comfortable passing those judgments. It seems like the Giants/Judge are taking more time...at least until the 2021 Draft is complete.
But the goal should be to discuss and debate all-things NYG.
Unless you choose not to which is fine too...
It is interesting these lines some are drawing in the sand about how far a poster can go with an opinion. And that some "balance" should be struck - whatever the hell that means - to come off as someone who is more worthwhile as a poster.
Until this organization puts a team that consistently wins on the field, the so called "football experts" with the Giants deserve little to no benefit of the doubt, despite their vast experiences.
On Jones, I believe the temperature of the debates would be a lot cooler if he wasn't the 6th pick. Because with that, IMV, comes great responsibility to be a difference maker. A real force multiplier. Those should be the expectations. If Jones was a second or third rounder, I would take a much different tack. I would view him more as a project who is more dependent on those who surround him...until proven otherwise.
my point is that the vast majority of posts about QBs are going to wind up based on emotion, speculation, some factoids and a bunch of opinion laden argumentation. including the vast majority of my posts about QB play.
So...what's wrong with that?
1) Lets watch and note when the goal is reached.
2) Lets note the first day when we dont have posts from posters who everyday for years wake up and spend their day putting down other posters while generating almost no useful insights of their own.
Not to drag this on, but the judgment of others on BBI takes on many shapes and forms.
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based on what they have seen to date and what they are looking for in a QB for Giants.
Doesn't mean they are correct (or incorrect) or that others cannot take more time before they are comfortable passing those judgments. It seems like the Giants/Judge are taking more time...at least until the 2021 Draft is complete.
But the goal should be to discuss and debate all-things NYG.
Unless you choose not to which is fine too...
It is interesting these lines some are drawing in the sand about how far a poster can go with an opinion. And that some "balance" should be struck - whatever the hell that means - to come off as someone who is more worthwhile as a poster.
Until this organization puts a team that consistently wins on the field, the so called "football experts" with the Giants deserve little to no benefit of the doubt, despite their vast experiences.
On Jones, I believe the temperature of the debates would be a lot cooler if he wasn't the 6th pick. Because with that, IMV, comes great responsibility to be a difference maker. A real force multiplier. Those should be the expectations. If Jones was a second or third rounder, I would take a much different tack. I would view him more as a project who is more dependent on those who surround him...until proven otherwise.
So if he was the Giants pick at #30 (where they picked Deandre Baker) or their original Rd 2 pick, we wouldn't be debating whether he deserves a third year or not?
Not so sure...
2) Lets note the first day when we dont have posts from posters who everyday for years wake up and spend their day putting down other posters while generating almost no useful insights of their own.
This is interesting because I notice you seem to align with FMiC quite a bit.
Yeah, but in the end the team still has to get more from him, and resultingly win more often.
The same unproductive QB that is cheaper "buys" just so much happiness... :-)
If you did note, then you would note that was( was being an important word) almost always on threads theoretically about analytics.
The psychology of making ones world about "sides" is worth reading up on
i'll drop out and you guys enjoy
That list covers over 50000 passes thrown by 49 college QBs in a 10 year period. It's a pretty good sample size. Are we really going to believe that Jones's poor AY/A and TD% in college and the pros are because of a series of unfortunate events that only befell him?
Did any of his Duke supporting cast get an NFL tryout even? I mean come on. It’s not unfortunate. It’s the truth.
The only reason they sniffed a bowl game was the guy under center for the Giants the last 2 seasons. Then he gets to the NFL — he sits 2 games under Eli, gets thrown into the lineup where he has Barkley, inconsistent Engram, usually injured Shep, a rookie in Slayton, and not much else. Year 2, the country is in a pandemic. Not only do we not get him a WR in year 2, his best weapon is injured in the first quarter of game 2.
His head coach loves the guy, according to every report I’ve read. You may be sold on him not being the answer, but Judge sure isn’t. So if you trust Judge, then why is his opinion of Jones not resonating with you?
But, and again this is just my view, I would be willing to wager Judge is not yet sold on DJ the starting quarterback. And I base this mostly on how DJ's "playbook" was clearly reigned in after an awful first half of 2020.
I think Judge may have seen just enough good things in DJ's second half to win his commitment to him for a third year.
But not by much...
And I don't believe Judge when he talks about Jones. I think Judge knows he's stuck with Jones for this year, and is handling it the only way he can.
And I don't believe Judge when he talks about Jones. I think Judge knows he's stuck with Jones for this year, and is handling it the only way he can.
I don’t think that’s an accurate portrayal of Joe Judge’s true feelings on Daniel Jones. I don’t see Judge as knowing Jones is not the answer and then willingly throwing away seasons because of it. Judge lives, eats, breathes, and craps football. If he was convinced Jones wasn’t the best option for the team going forward, he’d go to Mara, Gettleman, and whoever privately and that would be done.
Did he get better in year 2? Bigblueview - ( New Window )
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In comment 15217743 Go Terps said:
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Is Jones the only one that's had to deal with someone dropping passes, or some other form of bad luck?
That list covers over 50000 passes thrown by 49 college QBs in a 10 year period. It's a pretty good sample size. Are we really going to believe that Jones's poor AY/A and TD% in college and the pros are because of a series of unfortunate events that only befell him?
Sample sizes across different QB's and systems don't mean much. How many of those QB's have stable AY/A??
Here's a few examples for you. Brett Favre had AY/A's of 5.0, 5.2, 5.6, 5.6 and AY/A's of 7.9, 7.9, 7.6 and 7.4
His last season with the Pack was 7.8. Went to the Jets and had a 6.7. Went to Minny and had a 7.9. What is stable about his stat??
Carson Wentz has had AY/A's of 5.7, 8.3, 7.9, 7.0 and 5.3. A lot of fluctuation.
Tannehill has had AY/A's of 6.1, 6.2, 6.9, 7.1, 7.3, 7.0, 10.2 and 8.7
Trying to pigeon-hole consistency to a metric that varies a lot is disingenuous.
It hasn't varied with Jones going back to Duke. At Duke: 6.4, 5.5, 6.9. At NYG: 6.5, 6.1. Consistent. Consistently poor.
Makes you wonder what they were looking at when they drafted him.
Why would it matter if it has varied?? Are you not listening to what I'm saying? AY/A isn't looked at as a metric of a QB, but of the offense.
If AY/A was an indicator of QB competency, perhaps you can explain how Tua and Haskins and a host of other QB's had a very good one in college with some of the best skill players and then a poor one in the NFL.
You should be able to explain how a metric that supposedly shows good QB play falls to pieces in different situations.
Why can't you?
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In comment 15217799 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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In comment 15217743 Go Terps said:
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Is Jones the only one that's had to deal with someone dropping passes, or some other form of bad luck?
That list covers over 50000 passes thrown by 49 college QBs in a 10 year period. It's a pretty good sample size. Are we really going to believe that Jones's poor AY/A and TD% in college and the pros are because of a series of unfortunate events that only befell him?
Sample sizes across different QB's and systems don't mean much. How many of those QB's have stable AY/A??
Here's a few examples for you. Brett Favre had AY/A's of 5.0, 5.2, 5.6, 5.6 and AY/A's of 7.9, 7.9, 7.6 and 7.4
His last season with the Pack was 7.8. Went to the Jets and had a 6.7. Went to Minny and had a 7.9. What is stable about his stat??
Carson Wentz has had AY/A's of 5.7, 8.3, 7.9, 7.0 and 5.3. A lot of fluctuation.
Tannehill has had AY/A's of 6.1, 6.2, 6.9, 7.1, 7.3, 7.0, 10.2 and 8.7
Trying to pigeon-hole consistency to a metric that varies a lot is disingenuous.
It hasn't varied with Jones going back to Duke. At Duke: 6.4, 5.5, 6.9. At NYG: 6.5, 6.1. Consistent. Consistently poor.
Makes you wonder what they were looking at when they drafted him.
Why would it matter if it has varied?? Are you not listening to what I'm saying? AY/A isn't looked at as a metric of a QB, but of the offense.
If AY/A was an indicator of QB competency, perhaps you can explain how Tua and Haskins and a host of other QB's had a very good one in college with some of the best skill players and then a poor one in the NFL.
You should be able to explain how a metric that supposedly shows good QB play falls to pieces in different situations.
Why can't you?
If you look at any stat in isolation it is not going to be a good indicator, especially a stat like AY/A which merely compiles other stats. If I am looking at a QB who can translate to the NFL I would prefer to see how he does in red zone and goal to go. Offensive advantages get more neutralized because the back of the end zone is an extra defender. If a QB can’t hit those windows in college game that is concerning for the pros. That also makes me wonder if the Redskins did the right thing going after Fitzpatrick. He was worse than Jones in that regard in 2020. If you look at 2018 and compare him to Jameis Winston with the same talent around them, his numbers are atrocious.
And so we come back to what it always comes back to with Jones: an endless tide of excuses.
But the problem then lies with the fact that, whether because of his own poor play or because of the excuses, we've never actually seen Jones play like someone worthy of the 6th pick overall or of the moniker "franchise QB". It's all based on faith.
So why did they draft him? You know why they did as well as I do.
And so we come back to what it always comes back to with Jones: an endless tide of excuses.
But the problem then lies with the fact that, whether because of his own poor play or because of the excuses, we've never actually seen Jones play like someone worthy of the 6th pick overall or of the moniker "franchise QB". It's all based on faith.
So why did they draft him? You know why they did as well as I do.
Why did they draft him? Simple, they realized Eli was toast and they had no other options on the roster. In the NFL he has been a better QB than Haskins or Lock, the two other QB’s that were talked about along with Jones. He has flaws, but some of the best QB’s of all time did not become who they were in as quick of a time period as you want from Jones.
And so we come back to what it always comes back to with Jones: an endless tide of excuses.
But the problem then lies with the fact that, whether because of his own poor play or because of the excuses, we've never actually seen Jones play like someone worthy of the 6th pick overall or of the moniker "franchise QB". It's all based on faith.
So why did they draft him? You know why they did as well as I do.
Some of this stuff doesn’t make sense; I’m sure the Giants drafting Phil Simms didn’t make sense to a lot of people otherwise they wouldn’t have booed. Simms never played in the college postseason and threw more interceptions than touchdowns in college. Took a few years thanks to the injury bug biting Simms pretty hard, but he became our guy for more than half a decade.
Speaking of which, would someone please remind me why everyone booed when Simms was drafted?
- They could have stuck with Eli another year
- They could have cut Eli and signed an FA (Tyrod Taylor only got 2 years $11M from LA that offseason)
- They could have picked Gardner Minshew in that same draft...he was a better college player than Jones (see above) and has been a better pro player than Jones. Minshew was picked 178th overall.
You don't shop hungry with the 6th pick overall.
Anyway, here's hoping something that has never happened before happens in 2021: that Daniel Jones has a prolific year as a passer.
So why did they draft him? You know why they did as well as I do.
They drafted him because of scouting and the need for a QB. I'm assuming you are trying to intimate that they drafted him because he's "Eli 2.0" as you like to put it (and then ironically talk about comparisons to eli as being bunk).
The ironic thing is that the book isn't written on Jones, even though you think it has been. And yet, if we had drafted Rosen, Darnold, Haskins or other guys who haven't panned out (despite their better AY/A numbers in college, you'd just point to a different set of criteria.
Jones had 24 TD's in his rookie year, and you still act like that was a really bad season and you say everyone else is using "excuses" for him.
Sounds like an excuse for DJ...and probably DG as well.
Squeaky noises with no purpose.
Only mentioning the struggling ones to suggest Jones' critics wouldn't have liked them either is adding nothing, and as telling as your name calling.
The goal is to find the good ones, not just take solace in avoiding poor ones.
They missed on Josh Allen & probably could have waited to 2020 for Herbert, but Tua doesn’t look so great either to date.
Jones is going to get 2021 as he should. The fact is the Giants didn’t go 1-15 or 2-14 last year, they went 6-10. Jones has shown some flashes and offers a nice skillset. I think we’ve gotta let it play out some more.
They missed on Josh Allen & probably could have waited to 2020 for Herbert, but Tua doesn’t look so great either to date.
Jones is going to get 2021 as he should. The fact is the Giants didn’t go 1-15 or 2-14 last year, they went 6-10. Jones has shown some flashes and offers a nice skillset. I think we’ve gotta let it play out some more.
There is no sense not giving him a third year when there are no better options out there and we still have time to decide whether to exercise 5th year option. None of the FA QB's were an improvement over Jones and it looks like the QB's in the draft who would be improvements will all be selected well prior to 11. If Jones does not show progress this year then you Mitch Trubisky him, decline fifth year option and bring in competition. Progress does not mean being a Pro Bowl QB. Need to see improvement with decisionmaking and cutting down on fumbles. We had a couple of chances late in games this past season where we would have won if Jones wasn't late reading plays. We should not be focused on TD/INT ratio, AY/A, or some other stat, we need to go by what we are seeing on the field. A QB can have an INT by throwing a perfect ball to the TE on the proper read and the TE treats it like a hot potato into a defender's waiting arms. That will throw off both stats even though the QB did nothing wrong.
They missed on Josh Allen & probably could have waited to 2020 for Herbert, but Tua doesn’t look so great either to date.
Jones is going to get 2021 as he should. The fact is the Giants didn’t go 1-15 or 2-14 last year, they went 6-10. Jones has shown some flashes and offers a nice skillset. I think we’ve gotta let it play out some more.
Would you feel the same way if we had the second pick?
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The Giants were linked to both Josh Rosen in 2018 & Dwayne Haskins in 2019 - both selections would have been FAR worse than Jones. The other QB the Giants were linked to is Sam Darnold, I do not see him as an upgrade over Jones either.
They missed on Josh Allen & probably could have waited to 2020 for Herbert, but Tua doesn’t look so great either to date.
Jones is going to get 2021 as he should. The fact is the Giants didn’t go 1-15 or 2-14 last year, they went 6-10. Jones has shown some flashes and offers a nice skillset. I think we’ve gotta let it play out some more.
Would you feel the same way if we had the second pick?
If you are in a position to land a potential franchise QB you do that if you don't have one. As of right now the jury is still out on if Jones is a franchise QB who can make talent around him better versus someone who needs the right pieces around him. At 11 the Giants are not in that position because the cost to trade up would be too prohibitive
You can debate whether that is correct or whether they require a different DNA profile in making decisions. But those are the facts in early 2021.
They missed on Josh Allen & probably could have waited to 2020 for Herbert, but Tua doesn’t look so great either to date.
Jones is going to get 2021 as he should. The fact is the Giants didn’t go 1-15 or 2-14 last year, they went 6-10. Jones has shown some flashes and offers a nice skillset. I think we’ve gotta let it play out some more.
Josh Allen is THE miss. Everything about him was intriguing.
Taking Herbert would have required some serious brass balls and admitting that Jones was replaceable. But there was no way Gettleman & Mara were going to admit a mistake. So while I would have supported that move 100%, it's just not realistic with the cast of characters involved.
Jones is going to get two more seasons to sink or swim. And I'm not sure Judge is going to have much say in that otherwise...
Agree for sure. There is a lot of turmoil in the league at QB right now. Can lose a couple of fingers and still count how many teams are really set at QB for some time at this point. I feel like we would be insane to give up on Jones at this point. I can't even believe that anyone would be a proponent of that.
We’ll find out a lot this year.
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The Giants were linked to both Josh Rosen in 2018 & Dwayne Haskins in 2019 - both selections would have been FAR worse than Jones. The other QB the Giants were linked to is Sam Darnold, I do not see him as an upgrade over Jones either.
They missed on Josh Allen & probably could have waited to 2020 for Herbert, but Tua doesn’t look so great either to date.
Jones is going to get 2021 as he should. The fact is the Giants didn’t go 1-15 or 2-14 last year, they went 6-10. Jones has shown some flashes and offers a nice skillset. I think we’ve gotta let it play out some more.
Josh Allen is THE miss. Everything about him was intriguing.
Taking Herbert would have required some serious brass balls and admitting that Jones was replaceable. But there was no way Gettleman & Mara were going to admit a mistake. So while I would have supported that move 100%, it's just not realistic with the cast of characters involved.
Jones is going to get two more seasons to sink or swim. And I'm not sure Judge is going to have much say in that otherwise...
What would the patience level had been with Allen in NY the way he started?? what if he was erratic like he was in Buffalo, the team had a bad record, and he missed a couple of games with injury??
Then in his second year, he has to throw to Tate, Shepard, Slayton and Engram?
With the same rationale used with Jones, you'd likely say we needed to pivot from Allen.
Allen was a huge gamble and frankly, his rookie season confirmed things we saw in college regarding accuracy and risk taking while running.
I've argued that taking a QB outside the first or second round is really not worth the draft pick because the odds of finding a super bowl winning talent drops considerably.
When you look at super bowl winning QBs over the past 20 years over half were first rounders, and then there is Brady, haha.
Allen clearly showed his abilities to be a weapon at the QB position in his first two years. And at a level that was a good bit more than Jones.
As you say above, Allen was a scoring threat with both arm and legs. He avoided the pass rush better, had far more game winning drives and 4th quarter comebacks. You can live with some level of "erratic" if the guy is producing wins at good clip and that is what Allen did.
Always find this to be an odd comparison on this site.
DJ is moving into his 7th year of pro quality coaching. Meanwhile, he has multiple deficiencies that need to be fixed and actually regressed in his 2nd pro season.
How are the two players’ learning trajectories related? They are following very different paths.
But there were big question marks on those guys. Would I love to have Josh Allen in hindsight? Sure. And I really liked Jackson, though he would have been a disaster here.
And on Josh Allen, you have seen some of his sacks right? He takes some really dumb risks sometimes. I think he has lost more yardage in sacks than anyone in the NFL... lol. Let's not pretend he still doesn't have some work to do. And that's on a better team right now than the Giants.
Anyway, here's to hoping Jones proves he's the guy this year... lol
I pointed out above how his rookie season was comprised of 4 really good games and 8 bad games. I'm not going to get excited about that two years removed, given he put up a terrible season in 2020.
He looks like Eli and was also coached by Cutcliffe...if you don't think that mattered to Mara/Gettleman/Accorsi you haven't been paying attention over the years. Of course he is nothing like Eli as a player, so that tells you the quality of their evaluation process.
And you're right...the book isn't written. He's being "given" another year he hasn't earned on the field. More opportunity to add to the unimpressive college and pro resumes.