This upcoming draft makes 10 years of drafts since the rookie wage scale was introduced, and the concept of a rookie QB contract being a team building advantage. To get a sense of how drafting QBs changed in 2011, take a look at the contracts for Sam Bradford (drafted in 2010 under the old CBA) and Cam Newton (drafted in 2011 and paid after the end of the lockout):
2010 #1 pick Sam Bradford: 6 years, $78M
2011 #1 pick Cam Newton: 4 years, $22M
Consider that Joe Burrow was drafted just last year, and his 4 year, $36M contract still isn't half of what Bradford got ten years ago. It really was a "before & after" line, and I wonder the extent to which it changed the way teams look at drafting quarterbacks.
I also started thinking about the last 10 years of 1st round QBs as a group. The table below contains the college career stats of every QB drafted in the first round from 2011-2020. I added the five likely first rounders in the upcoming draft, as well as significant non-first round picks that stuck and made significant impacts in the NFL. This last group is obviously subjective, but I don't know that I'm missing much by excluding the Geno Smiths of the world.
- CAPS denotes a QB that played a big role in getting to a Super Bowl ("big role" really just referring to Carson Wentz; all other QBs in CAPS started a Super Bowl game)
- * denotes a QB who was not picked in the first round; there are 13 of these QBs
- Strikethrough denotes a QB who flamed out and was quickly out of the league
- Sports Reference didn't have all of Garoppolo's stats, so I just included what they had
Every statistical category is shaded green (high rank) to red (low rank), but the QBs are sorted by their college passer rating. I also included their college and NFL AY/A next to each other. AY/A is a pretty good catch-all stat, and is calculated by (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts).
Two thoughts:
1. I thought the number of QBs over this 10 year period would be larger than it is (49, 36 drafted in round 1). But maybe that feels about right? A shade under 5 QBs per draft on average?
2. You can see how passing efficiency has really gone up. I am reminded of Nick Saban's recent admission that you have to outscore people now...no surprise that the two highest rated QBs are his last two. Lincoln Riley's guys also stand out: Murray, Mayfield, and Hurts.
But there were big question marks on those guys. Would I love to have Josh Allen in hindsight? Sure. And I really liked Jackson, though he would have been a disaster here.
And on Josh Allen, you have seen some of his sacks right? He takes some really dumb risks sometimes. I think he has lost more yardage in sacks than anyone in the NFL... lol. Let's not pretend he still doesn't have some work to do. And that's on a better team right now than the Giants.
Anyway, here's to hoping Jones proves he's the guy this year... lol
I think you nailed it...Barkley was always the easy pick, just not the right one.
As to sacks/yard lost just so we can see the facts:
Allen in 44 games - 92 sacks/609 yards lost
Jones in 27 games - 83 sacks/581 yards lost
I hope Jones proves he's the guy too.
I see good things about Jones: he's got good speed and he's tough. He's accurate on "see it, throw it" deep balls that don't require a big amount of anticipation.
It just doesn't outweigh the numerous issues.
I think you nailed it...Barkley was always the easy pick, just not the right one.
As to sacks/yard lost just so we can see the facts:
Allen in 44 games - 92 sacks/609 yards lost
Jones in 27 games - 83 sacks/581 yards lost
I hope Jones proves he's the guy too.
Well, if Jones ends up being the guy, then there 100% is redemption on that pick. If you can call it redemption, I for one am not sad we took Barkley with that pick, even in hindsight. Thx for pulling those sack numbers. Shows you how much Jones was constantly running for his life. I am actually worried that getting that much constant pressure will at some point make him gun shy. I really hope the OL pulls together this year and he has more time in the pocket.
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But you do realize your assessment of Jones is much more bleak than pretty much anyone on the planet? Include people that evaluate players for a living? It's just surprising to me that you can be so down on him, when most people see good AND bad.
I see good things about Jones: he's got good speed and he's tough. He's accurate on "see it, throw it" deep balls that don't require a big amount of anticipation.
It just doesn't outweigh the numerous issues.
That makes sense, so do you think he can't overcome those issues with experience, coaching, and adjusting scheme to his strengths? Well, and better play around him... lol. I guess that's the million $$ question.
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I think you nailed it...Barkley was always the easy pick, just not the right one.
As to sacks/yard lost just so we can see the facts:
Allen in 44 games - 92 sacks/609 yards lost
Jones in 27 games - 83 sacks/581 yards lost
I hope Jones proves he's the guy too.
Well, if Jones ends up being the guy, then there 100% is redemption on that pick. If you can call it redemption, I for one am not sad we took Barkley with that pick, even in hindsight. Thx for pulling those sack numbers. Shows you how much Jones was constantly running for his life. I am actually worried that getting that much constant pressure will at some point make him gun shy. I really hope the OL pulls together this year and he has more time in the pocket.
To your point, have seen some brainfart moments of Allen taking some bad sacks. But imv, overall he is much better navigating around the pocket than Jones. We saw too many instances of just Jones drifting back when he gets pressure versus scrambling/dodging.
The sack numbers don't really tell you anything definitive except that the Giant OL sure as hell needs better players. But it was your comment so I threw it out there.
What does "overcome those issues" mean, though? Does it mean he could grow into a Mariota-type borderline starter/high end backup? Probably.
But is he going to grow into one of the best QBs in the league in the next year or two? Someone worth paying $30+ million a year? I seriously doubt it.
in my view the takeaways are pretty simple - the odds are about 10-20% for young QBs to pan out with a very select few being good right away (Herbert, Burrow, Luck, etc).
then there's a sizable sample who are very quickly identified as abject disasters, usually for non-physical talent reasons (Rosen, Haskins, Manziel etc).
and most are somewhere in between with a variety of mitigating factors that give them a chance but could go either way (Allen, Mayfield, Murray, etc). IMO both Dak and Russell Wilson were in this category and developed into the MVP level players they are now. Eli too for that matter.
Since everyone needs 2 cents on Jones I put him in that last category and I'd also speculate that oftentimes it's a better percentage play to try to develop a player up from that category than start from scratch, but that's case by case. If I were the Panthers my first choice would have been starting fresh with a rookie over Darnold if that were an option but I don't think Darnold was a terrible back up plan.
Lastly I also continue to believe YPA is one of the most wildly misused statistics out there. Tua had a crazy high YPA at Bama because he had insane WRs with crazy high YPC. Notice he didn't bring those WRs with him to Miami. It's not rocket science. If you don't have downfield WRs you are going to have a lower YPA irrespective of aggressiveness and deep passing ability.
But there were big question marks on those guys. Would I love to have Josh Allen in hindsight? Sure. And I really liked Jackson, though he would have been a disaster here.
And on Josh Allen, you have seen some of his sacks right? He takes some really dumb risks sometimes. I think he has lost more yardage in sacks than anyone in the NFL... lol. Let's not pretend he still doesn't have some work to do. And that's on a better team right now than the Giants.
Anyway, here's to hoping Jones proves he's the guy this year... lol
Pretty much. Should Jones fail this year that pretty much means 3 years of first round picks were wrong.
As for wanting Allen in hindsight, there were plenty here who wanted the giants to take him over Barkley. And another contingent who wanted SB and then wait until the 2020 draft for a QB.
I've said from his the time Jones was drafted he'll be compared to three years of QB draft classes: 18, 19, 20; the two years most wanted to take a QB and the year he was actually drafted.
Lastly I also continue to believe YPA is one of the most wildly misused statistics out there. Tua had a crazy high YPA at Bama because he had insane WRs with crazy high YPC. Notice he didn't bring those WRs with him to Miami. It's not rocket science. If you don't have downfield WRs you are going to have a lower YPA irrespective of aggressiveness and deep passing ability.
It seems to be more misused by fans and talking heads than NFL people though. At the Combine a few years ago, one of the breakout sessions was about advanced statistics, and a question was asked about AY/A and the panel had a person from the Pats, the Broncos and the Ravens on it. All three of them talked about how it is a very poor stat without context. They talked about gameplans where they would intentionally shorten the field or control the clock which artificially impacts certain stats. The guy from the Pats said that Brady had about as many years with average AY/A as he did above average AY/A and the guy from the Ravens joked that he wasn't sure Flacco ever had an above average AY/A, but for the Ravens offense, it was considered efficient.
All three also talked about how advanced stats are being used by non-league groups to illustrate their expertise in understanding the game, but that they really should provide them with context as well as work with teams to learn the targets they have or if the stat even matters in the grand scheme of things. The Bronco guy said that "number crunching" has a purpose, but that for each team that purpose is different as well as the information each team finds important is different and the other two guys voiced their approval.
Does it not concern you at all, that despite his stats fitting your criteria, that the level of his competition is different?
I've followed North Dakota State, mainly because a good friend of mine is a JMU fan (their main competition for the Division 1 National Championship seemingly every year).
I talked, in that other thread, about Daniel Jones having a similar skillset/build/height as Trey Lance. What if Daniel Jones had played at North Dakota St? Or JMU for that matter, and Trey Lance had played at Duke?
JMU is really good, but they are not Clemson. That doesn't give you pause, at all?
That's why Lance is so highly regarded. On his best day, Jones isn't in the same stratosphere physically as Lance.
So yeah, 28 TD's is good. But they were blowing teams out, and you know that.
If Lance were there at 11 (he won't be), to me the decision looks like this:
1. Stick with Jones in year 3. Hope he gets better but the decision to pay or not to pay is soon arriving
OR
2. Draft Lance, trade Jones. Reset the QB rookie contract clock. We know Lance has superior physical traits (arm strength and agility)...will he be as poor mentally as Jones has been?
To me, that's an easy decision. Option 2.
But Jones was as poor against his college competition as any first round QB of the last ten years. Wouldn't that give you even more pause?
I don't think you trade Jones right away in that scenario, though. Instead, I think you have a real QB competition and may the best man win, then trade the other mid-season on next offseason.
Because the roster is much improved, IMO, from when we drafted Jones... ie: easier to insert a young QB without him getting his sh-t kicked in, this would be a decision I could understand.
I don't think you trade Jones right away in that scenario, though. Instead, I think you have a real QB competition and may the best man win, then trade the other mid-season on next offseason.
Because the roster is much improved, IMO, from when we drafted Jones... ie: easier to insert a young QB without him getting his sh-t kicked in, this would be a decision I could understand.
I definitely agree with this.
But Jones was as poor against his college competition as any first round QB of the last ten years. Wouldn't that give you even more pause?
Well again, it's sort of context based.
Let me put it this way, Duke is a small fish in a big pond in terms of competition, while ND St. is a big fish in a small pond, so to say.
North Dakota St. is the cream of the crop in Division 1. They compete for the National Title almost every year, Carson Wentz years as well. They are loaded. Go back and look at how badly they dominate every year.
Duke, on the other hand, faces the best competition in the nation, on the largest stage, but they are not on the same tier as their competition as a program.
Put Trey Lance at Duke. You think he does that much better than Daniel Jones, just by measuring the level of Duke the program vs. the rest of the ACC programs?
Some of you you have seen enough of Jones to be done. You have made your point. We get what you are trying to say. You don't have to put lipstick on it.
We find out at the end of the season.
At least we've seen Lance be excellent on a football field. No one's ever seen that from Jones.
I don't think Daniel Jones going in the first round shocked everybody. I think he was considered a 1st round pick by most. The debate was not whether he was a 1st round pick, but whether he would have been there for us at 17 or not.
And based on that, if he was so poor why would be be considered a 1st round pick at all?
$26M guaranteed in the contract he signed w/ the Eagles in 2016.
$15M guaranteed in the contract he signed w/ the Cards in 2018.
That's $91M in guaranteed money.
According to Forbes (just looked it up) he made a total of $129M in his underwhelming career.
83 career games played (adds up to approximately 5 total full seasons basically). That means he averaged over $1.5M per game, all for a career passer rating of about 84.
I know QB contracts have been and are going up and up and up, but considering the time he played in and his skill level as a QB those numbers are ridiculous.
So yeah, 28 TD's is good. But they were blowing teams out, and you know that.
Madison played them very tough in the finals in '20. And were a DiNucci throw away from tying that game on the last play from inside the ten.
And Madison had an excellent D that year but had zero answers for Lance who ran wild. I think he was close to 200 yards rushing...? So he played big in the biggest moment in a very tight game.
Hell, a few years earlier Madison went into NDSt and beat the piss out of them in the playoffs. So Madison has serious pedigree.
Again, going the entire year without an INT is unbelievable. With all of the possibilities of tipped passes, deflections, receivers slipping, wrong routes, etc that is quite a feat.
Can you say the same about Duke vs. Clemson?
This is a really good question, and I can't answer it for certain. I liked him better in that draft than Haskins and Lock, but as it looks right now all three guys were misses. It may just have been a case of a year where no good QBs came out, and the pundits eventually talked themselves into a guy in Jones who looks the part and was coached by Cutcliffe.
If you think about it, the Giants have been really bad at drafting QBs post-Eli. I may be wrong but I don't think a QB they drafted since 2005 even stuck around as a backup. It may have been a big blind spot that developed as the nature of the passing game changed so much over the course of Eli's long career.
That's why I'm anxious to get a bring in a new QB that is scouted and evaluated under Judge's methodology and ethos. I'd have a lot more confidence in a QB he brought in than one brought in by Mara/Gettleman/Accorsi to recreate some romanticized vision of Eli Manning or Bert Jones in 2019.
I would have thought you would love to try to use up DJ on this rookie contract while we build out a team.
I would have thought you would love to try to use up DJ on this rookie contract while we build out a team.
I haven't switched. I believe that more than ever. The thing is, Jones isn't any good. Further, I believe there's a good chance the Giants will use him less as a runner this year, as a reaction to his injury last year.
It's academic, obviously. They are going to "give" him this year (I hate that thinking), and none of the 1st round QBs worth looking at are going to drop to us anyway.
But if for whatever reason Lance falls to us...do it.
Whether anyone chooses to believe that or not doesn't matter, imo arguing that the NYG overdrafted Jones is a brainless position to take 1 full year after it was apparent to everyone with eyes that Jones clearly displayed the talent of a first round pick. I will raise your 28 tds and 0 ints at NDSU with 13 tds and 0 ints in the red zone as a rookie in the NFL whose #1 receiver was a 5th round rookie.
A good rookie year doesn't mean he will end up having a good career but it certainly validated the talent evaluation. And a sophmore slump doesn't invalidate it (again imo).
And leading the league in fumbles again as a sophomore while watching his TD passes decline precipitously (along with the NYG points per game) isn't helping that cause.
He is getting Year 3 and the hope is that things improve immensely. But if they don't, Jones may not be able to even get his parking pass validated at MetLife in 2022...
And leading the league in fumbles again as a sophomore while watching his TD passes decline precipitously (along with the NYG points per game) isn't helping that cause.
He is getting Year 3 and the hope is that things improve immensely. But if they don't, Jones may not be able to even get his parking pass validated at MetLife in 2022...
I'm pretty sure what validates him getting drafted where he did is that he'd still be the 2nd QB off the board in a redraft of his draft class. Or should they have not drafted a QB in 2019?
And no, imv they should not have drafted a QB in 2019 if they still had Eli Manning on the payroll as their starter.
The most productive QBs to date are Murray, then a pretty big drop off to Minshew and Jones.
Each year there are a handful of QB’s that get drafted and hyped. Jones was one of those players in 2019.
I don’t believe for a second Wilson, Fields, Lance & Mac Jones will all pan out. But, they will all be drafted in the first round.
This is the thing everyone seems to forget. The Giants absolutely would've gone Darnold if they had chosen to go QB in 2018. So many people remember history as "of course the Giants would've taken Josh Allen, but passed on him for a RB." Yeah, maybe if Dave Gettleman had a crystal ball he would've taken Josh Allen (but then that would mean a whole lot of our other problems would also be solved)-- no one knew he was going to be the best QB of that draft, which is exactly why he was the 3rd QB off the board. At the time, the discussion was clearly between Mayfield and Darnold for who the best QB was.
So glad we have Barkley right now instead of Darnold.
I think the beats were hedging to Darnold and Rosen but not confirmed.
And if Eli retired, the Giants could have also gone QB in free agency and still passed on this group.
Each year there are a handful of QB’s that get drafted and hyped. Jones was one of those players in 2019.
I don’t believe for a second Wilson, Fields, Lance & Mac Jones will all pan out. But, they will all be drafted in the first round.
True, but that doesn't make the Jones selection "right" with the misery-loves-company defense.
Mac Jones isn't a first round talent, IMV, and he's about to be as over-drafted like DJ. He's just not talented enough to warrant the investment.
However, if I was a fan of the teams that draft Fields, Lance, Wilson and Lawrence, I'd feel good that they all have skills that warrant a high investment.
And leading the league in fumbles again as a sophomore while watching his TD passes decline precipitously (along with the NYG points per game) isn't helping that cause.
He is getting Year 3 and the hope is that things improve immensely. But if they don't, Jones may not be able to even get his parking pass validated at MetLife in 2022...
That's fair.
He's not even in the top 20 of most turnovers in a season? Eli Manning is on the list 3 times. Nor is he the most ever from a rookie. He didn't even have the most turnovers in 2019, Jameis Winston did.
2003 Ole Miss with Eli had 34.0 PPG. 29/10 TD/INT ratio. 8.5 AY/A. 2004 Ole Miss had 19.5 PPG. The leader in QB snaps for Ole Miss in 04 had a 5.5 AY/A and a 6 TD/10 INT ratio.
I don't have a point here, really. I don't follow college ball and I know there are a ton of moving variables. But I recall Eli's teammates at Ole Miss were criticized as well (but not to the same degree as Jones').
Pick your favorite among these fumbles and/or turnover achievements...
-Jones had 18 fumbles as a rookie. That led all players in the NFL. Jones lost 11 of those to the opposition, making him the only player to lose double-digit fumbles in 2019.
-Historically, Jones’ fumble statistic in 2019 was the most by an NFL player since Dante Culpepper coughed it up 23 times back in 2002.
-Jones' 18 fumbles, the fifth-highest mark in NFL history, was in 816 offensive snaps, or one fumble every 45.3 snaps.
-In Jones' first 20 career starts the turnover count was 35, a pace matched in the past 22 years by only former San Diego Chargers quarterback Ryan Leaf.
-Noting the first 20 because after this game Judge/Garrett clearly reigned in the gameplan which resulted in less actual turnovers but also far less scoring as Jones only accounted for 6 more TDs passing/running over his final 6 games. Fabulous...
-Jones also had at least one turnover in 20 of his first 21 NFL games.
A little less than fabulous I guess...
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the historic turnover stat from Jones??
Pick your favorite among these fumbles and/or turnover achievements...
-Jones had 18 fumbles as a rookie. That led all players in the NFL. Jones lost 11 of those to the opposition, making him the only player to lose double-digit fumbles in 2019.
-Historically, Jones’ fumble statistic in 2019 was the most by an NFL player since Dante Culpepper coughed it up 23 times back in 2002.
-Jones' 18 fumbles, the fifth-highest mark in NFL history, was in 816 offensive snaps, or one fumble every 45.3 snaps.
-In Jones' first 20 career starts the turnover count was 35, a pace matched in the past 22 years by only former San Diego Chargers quarterback Ryan Leaf.
-Noting the first 20 because after this game Judge/Garrett clearly reigned in the gameplan which resulted in less actual turnovers but also far less scoring as Jones only accounted for 6 more TDs passing/running over his final 6 games. Fabulous...
-Jones also had at least one turnover in 20 of his first 21 NFL games.
You might want to look up the word "historic", Clownshoes.
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didn't validate his #6 overall pick because he threw 24 TDs as a rookie (the majority in really only three starts) while turning the ball over at a NFL historic rate.
And leading the league in fumbles again as a sophomore while watching his TD passes decline precipitously (along with the NYG points per game) isn't helping that cause.
He is getting Year 3 and the hope is that things improve immensely. But if they don't, Jones may not be able to even get his parking pass validated at MetLife in 2022...
I'm pretty sure what validates him getting drafted where he did is that he'd still be the 2nd QB off the board in a redraft of his draft class. Or should they have not drafted a QB in 2019?
The second they made the SB pick they should have waited until 2020 to draft a QB.