This upcoming draft makes 10 years of drafts since the rookie wage scale was introduced, and the concept of a rookie QB contract being a team building advantage. To get a sense of how drafting QBs changed in 2011, take a look at the contracts for Sam Bradford (drafted in 2010 under the old CBA) and Cam Newton (drafted in 2011 and paid after the end of the lockout):
2010 #1 pick Sam Bradford: 6 years, $78M
2011 #1 pick Cam Newton: 4 years, $22M
Consider that Joe Burrow was drafted just last year, and his 4 year, $36M contract still isn't half of what Bradford got ten years ago. It really was a "before & after" line, and I wonder the extent to which it changed the way teams look at drafting quarterbacks.
I also started thinking about the last 10 years of 1st round QBs as a group. The table below contains the college career stats of every QB drafted in the first round from 2011-2020. I added the five likely first rounders in the upcoming draft, as well as significant non-first round picks that stuck and made significant impacts in the NFL. This last group is obviously subjective, but I don't know that I'm missing much by excluding the Geno Smiths of the world.
- CAPS denotes a QB that played a big role in getting to a Super Bowl ("big role" really just referring to Carson Wentz; all other QBs in CAPS started a Super Bowl game)
- * denotes a QB who was not picked in the first round; there are 13 of these QBs
- Strikethrough denotes a QB who flamed out and was quickly out of the league
- Sports Reference didn't have all of Garoppolo's stats, so I just included what they had
Every statistical category is shaded green (high rank) to red (low rank), but the QBs are sorted by their college passer rating. I also included their college and NFL AY/A next to each other. AY/A is a pretty good catch-all stat, and is calculated by (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts).
Two thoughts:
1. I thought the number of QBs over this 10 year period would be larger than it is (49, 36 drafted in round 1). But maybe that feels about right? A shade under 5 QBs per draft on average?
2. You can see how passing efficiency has really gone up. I am reminded of Nick Saban's recent admission that you have to outscore people now...no surprise that the two highest rated QBs are his last two. Lincoln Riley's guys also stand out: Murray, Mayfield, and Hurts.
none of the good or bad means he is a good player or a bad player yet, it's a mixed bag. But I guess acknowledging any positive is inconvenient if 2 years ago you were convinced drafting him was a mistake and you are looking to expedite the 'told ya so'.
More squeaky sounds from Clownshoes without purpose.
none of the good or bad means he is a good player or a bad player yet, it's a mixed bag. But I guess acknowledging any positive is inconvenient if 2 years ago you were convinced drafting him was a mistake and you are looking to expedite the 'told ya so'.
The turnover stats are facts. And they are indisputable.
Not sure what a NYG team pacing trend represents? But make sure you pace the fumbles and turnovers as well in your calcs, especially against HOF type QBs. Sorry about Nicks and Cruz, but that was years ago.
As mentioned consistently, I want Jones to succeed. But lets not confuse that with what we are working with and what it will take to get there. That's just reality.
The I told ya so's are not productive conversation but happy to converse on any previous player topic if you wish. Since I want DJ to be good, not sure its relevant.
More squeaky sounds from Clownshoes without purpose.
Let me know what above relative to turnovers and fumbles is not fact, or misleading as to context.
The exaggeration comment is especially funny coming from the poster who's reputation is based almost solely defending and bullying from such representations.
The name-calling continues which only tells me you're hurt and will act aggressively in the short term before ultimately look for the eventual...
Agreed. That’s a lot of fumbles and turnovers...
I’d also imagine the 29 in 27 games to start a career is a record.
Krieg - 34 fumbles in 30 games in '89-'90 (1.13/game)
Moon - 29 fumbles in 31 games in '89-'90 (or '90-'91) (.94/game)
Collins - 32 fumbles in 32 games in '01-'02 (1.00/game)
Jones - 29 fumbles in 27 games in '19-'20 (1.07/game)
I did find a guy who was worse than all of them...
Daunte Culpepper fumbled 16, 23, and 16 times in 2001, 2002, and 2003. Incredible.
Defend however, whenever, wherever...
And leading the league in fumbles again as a sophomore while watching his TD passes decline precipitously (along with the NYG points per game) isn't helping that cause.
He is getting Year 3 and the hope is that things improve immensely. But if they don't, Jones may not be able to even get his parking pass validated at MetLife in 2022...
Krieg - 34 fumbles in 30 games in '89-'90 (1.13/game)
Moon - 29 fumbles in 31 games in '89-'90 (or '90-'91) (.94/game)
Collins - 32 fumbles in 32 games in '01-'02 (1.00/game)
Jones - 29 fumbles in 27 games in '19-'20 (1.07/game)
I did find a guy who was worse than all of them...
Daunte Culpepper fumbled 16, 23, and 16 times in 2001, 2002, and 2003. Incredible.
In that 2 year period Krieg had 40 INT. How he made the 1989 Pro Bowl I don’t know. Maybe that should not be a benchmark for how Jones does.
Warren Moon’s INT totals over 3 years was 14, 13, and 21 yet made Pro Bowl all 3 years. The INT% for two of those years exceeded any year of Jones’s career and the third matched what Jones had this year (which was a decline from his rookie year).
Kerry Collins had 30 INT over that time period so a little higher pace than Jones.
Daunte Culpepper was 13-23-11 in INT and he played 11, 16, and 14 games. He did make Pro Bowl in 2003. He was also doing that despite having Randy Moss at WR, who was far better than any WR Jones had in his first two years.
Defend however, whenever, wherever...
Hey Jimmy Clowshoes - it isn't that difficult here.
You posted that Jones has had a historic turnover total. Yet, his turnover totals aren't the highest in history for a season (not even in the top 20 for TURNOVERS), nor is he worst in any specific category.
That isn't defending, it is refuting errant facts.
I get that you might want to use an escape hatch, but those pesky Clownshoes won't fit, right??
It is nor false nor an exaggeration. Sorry that is so difficult for you to logically comprehend as you only look to berate others.
Your chucklehead posts only continue to provide me and others the same ongoing comic relief these days as mentioned before...
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didn't validate his #6 overall pick because he threw 24 TDs as a rookie (the majority in really only three starts) while turning the ball over at a NFL historic rate.
And leading the league in fumbles again as a sophomore while watching his TD passes decline precipitously (along with the NYG points per game) isn't helping that cause.
He is getting Year 3 and the hope is that things improve immensely. But if they don't, Jones may not be able to even get his parking pass validated at MetLife in 2022...
implying?
What do you think Bill?
It is nor false nor an exaggeration. Sorry that is so difficult for you to logically comprehend as you only look to berate others.
Your chucklehead posts only continue to provide me and others the same ongoing comic relief these days as mentioned before...
Again - learn the term "historic" before throwing it around like party favors, Clownshoes.
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In comment 15219357 Jimmy Googs said:
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didn't validate his #6 overall pick because he threw 24 TDs as a rookie (the majority in really only three starts) while turning the ball over at a NFL historic rate.
And leading the league in fumbles again as a sophomore while watching his TD passes decline precipitously (along with the NYG points per game) isn't helping that cause.
He is getting Year 3 and the hope is that things improve immensely. But if they don't, Jones may not be able to even get his parking pass validated at MetLife in 2022...
implying?
What do you think Bill?
I would say it should be imply rather than infer. But I'm old and English evolves, so things might be different now.
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The difference between the two is that imply refers to giving information, while infer refers to receiving information. Imply means to strongly suggest the truth or existence of something that is not expressly stated. The speaker, or someone who is giving information, may imply something.
Thanks Britt
I like it when I can get something out of a thread.
.
fmic doing his thing...
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and support the statement that Jones has been turning the ball over at a historic rate and represent why he hasn't actually validated his #6 overall selection in 2019 (yet).
It is nor false nor an exaggeration. Sorry that is so difficult for you to logically comprehend as you only look to berate others.
Your chucklehead posts only continue to provide me and others the same ongoing comic relief these days as mentioned before...
Again - learn the term "historic" before throwing it around like party favors, Clownshoes.
I think it is more generational than historic[smfh]
Is "doing Googs things" getting banned and trolling the board under a handle for a year while vehemently denying the obvious?? because that's something to be proud of???
Clownshoes.
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In comment 15219970 Jimmy Googs said:
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and support the statement that Jones has been turning the ball over at a historic rate and represent why he hasn't actually validated his #6 overall selection in 2019 (yet).
It is nor false nor an exaggeration. Sorry that is so difficult for you to logically comprehend as you only look to berate others.
Your chucklehead posts only continue to provide me and others the same ongoing comic relief these days as mentioned before...
Again - learn the term "historic" before throwing it around like party favors, Clownshoes.
I think it is more generational than historic[smfh]
Ha, I was thinking the same thing ie: historical/generational.
Krieg - 34 fumbles in 30 games in '89-'90 (1.13/game)
Moon - 29 fumbles in 31 games in '89-'90 (or '90-'91) (.94/game)
Collins - 32 fumbles in 32 games in '01-'02 (1.00/game)
Jones - 29 fumbles in 27 games in '19-'20 (1.07/game)
I did find a guy who was worse than all of them...
Daunte Culpepper fumbled 16, 23, and 16 times in 2001, 2002, and 2003. Incredible.
Not an enviable stat to be grouped in with these QBs.
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In comment 15219980 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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In comment 15219970 Jimmy Googs said:
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and support the statement that Jones has been turning the ball over at a historic rate and represent why he hasn't actually validated his #6 overall selection in 2019 (yet).
It is nor false nor an exaggeration. Sorry that is so difficult for you to logically comprehend as you only look to berate others.
Your chucklehead posts only continue to provide me and others the same ongoing comic relief these days as mentioned before...
Again - learn the term "historic" before throwing it around like party favors, Clownshoes.
I think it is more generational than historic[smfh]
Ha, I was thinking the same thing ie: historical/generational.
Historic, at least on sports stats terms, doesn't necessarily need to be the first time a milestone is accomplished.
Getting 3000 hits in MLB is an historic achievement, even though it's been done before. But it's the rarity that makes it historic.
I'd say "historically bad" would probably be the better term to use. It holds more of a "it's the worst since ..." Sense rather than the "worst all time"
interceptions are problem for a host of different reasons that are fundamental to QB performance - bad decision making, poor accuracy, etc.
example - if I were a Bengal fan, I'd be a lot more encouraged by Burrow only throwing 5 ints in 10 games than his 9 fumbles in 10 games.
this is also where the "historic turnovers" argument becomes specious because while Jones' rookie year fumbles were extremely high his INTs have actually been pretty low, especially compared to other QBs in their first 2 years. Peyton Manning had more INTs in year 1 than Jones has in years 1 + 2 combined. Jones has thrown fewer INTs in his first 2 years than any 2 consecutive years of Eli's career. His 2020 INT% (2.2%) was essentially the same as Russell Wilson (2.3%), Kyler Murray (2.2%), Brady (2.0%), and in the top half of all qualified passers (17th/35).
So even if you weight fumbles and ints equally like most of Jones' performance to date his turnover numbers are a mixed bag, though imo the low INT numbers are more of a positive than the high fumble numbers a negative (especially since there was big improvement in 2020).
However, a QB that continues to fumble the ball at league-leading rates shows lack of pocket awareness, and also slower decision-making to release the ball or scramble. Big problems.
Jones has had major issue thus far with turnovers, especially fumbles. It's an issue that must be corrected if he wants to stay in the league as a starting qb.
I'm sure reasonable sides can agree without fussing over terms.
Fix the o-line, and the fumbles will be cut in half.
Fix the o-line, and the fumbles will be cut in half.
That's wrong and you are so full of crap.
Fumbles happen in a vacuum. Everyone knows that.
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In comment 15220008 section125 said:
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In comment 15219980 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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In comment 15219970 Jimmy Googs said:
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and support the statement that Jones has been turning the ball over at a historic rate and represent why he hasn't actually validated his #6 overall selection in 2019 (yet).
It is nor false nor an exaggeration. Sorry that is so difficult for you to logically comprehend as you only look to berate others.
Your chucklehead posts only continue to provide me and others the same ongoing comic relief these days as mentioned before...
Again - learn the term "historic" before throwing it around like party favors, Clownshoes.
I think it is more generational than historic[smfh]
Ha, I was thinking the same thing ie: historical/generational.
Historic, at least on sports stats terms, doesn't necessarily need to be the first time a milestone is accomplished.
Getting 3000 hits in MLB is an historic achievement, even though it's been done before. But it's the rarity that makes it historic.
I'd say "historically bad" would probably be the better term to use. It holds more of a "it's the worst since ..." Sense rather than the "worst all time"
Scooter I agree. And the figures above clearly show that Jones is fumbling at a historically bad rate.
Oh my, the drama for no particular reason other than to take a shot and be rude.
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In comment 15220062 Britt in VA said:
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In comment 15220008 section125 said:
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In comment 15219980 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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In comment 15219970 Jimmy Googs said:
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and support the statement that Jones has been turning the ball over at a historic rate and represent why he hasn't actually validated his #6 overall selection in 2019 (yet).
It is nor false nor an exaggeration. Sorry that is so difficult for you to logically comprehend as you only look to berate others.
Your chucklehead posts only continue to provide me and others the same ongoing comic relief these days as mentioned before...
Again - learn the term "historic" before throwing it around like party favors, Clownshoes.
I think it is more generational than historic[smfh]
Ha, I was thinking the same thing ie: historical/generational.
Historic, at least on sports stats terms, doesn't necessarily need to be the first time a milestone is accomplished.
Getting 3000 hits in MLB is an historic achievement, even though it's been done before. But it's the rarity that makes it historic.
I'd say "historically bad" would probably be the better term to use. It holds more of a "it's the worst since ..." Sense rather than the "worst all time"
Scooter I agree. And the figures above clearly show that Jones is fumbling at a historically bad rate.
Oh my, the drama for no particular reason other than to take a shot and be rude.
I've witnessed you be rude in your "short" stint here as well.
interceptions are problem for a host of different reasons that are fundamental to QB performance - bad decision making, poor accuracy, etc.
example - if I were a Bengal fan, I'd be a lot more encouraged by Burrow only throwing 5 ints in 10 games than his 9 fumbles in 10 games.
this is also where the "historic turnovers" argument becomes specious because while Jones' rookie year fumbles were extremely high his INTs have actually been pretty low, especially compared to other QBs in their first 2 years. Peyton Manning had more INTs in year 1 than Jones has in years 1 + 2 combined. Jones has thrown fewer INTs in his first 2 years than any 2 consecutive years of Eli's career. His 2020 INT% (2.2%) was essentially the same as Russell Wilson (2.3%), Kyler Murray (2.2%), Brady (2.0%), and in the top half of all qualified passers (17th/35).
So even if you weight fumbles and ints equally like most of Jones' performance to date his turnover numbers are a mixed bag, though imo the low INT numbers are more of a positive than the high fumble numbers a negative (especially since there was big improvement in 2020).
I'd argue fumbles are worse than an INT because you are almost always giving the opposing offense better field position with a fumble than you are with an INT. About the only exception would be a red zone fumble versus an INT in the end zone that goes for a touchback. If it is 3rd and 25 and the QB airs it 60 yards down the field because nobody is open but it is picked and the defender is then tackled or falls out of bounds after making catch that is almost better than a punt.
Recall it came to the forefront of NY Giant fans during his first couple preseason games. He threw the ball really well with scripted plays and good accuracy, but the ball came loose a handful of times in only a small amount of drives.
It seemed to escalate from there his entire rookie year, and while declining his second year has still remained at way too high a rate. Agree that it goes beyond pass protection.
I think the turning point for Eli may have been the hit he took against Washington in 2016. Thank Weston Richburg for that.
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fumble. Eli knew when to hold em and when to fold him. He made a lot of business decisions towards the end. Some called him gutless for, but the alternative might be what you're seeing from Jones.
I think the turning point for Eli may have been the hit he took against Washington in 2016. Thank Weston Richburg for that.
That is an astute observation, and it very well could be. That was a vicious shot.
Agree with this. But simply being hit less will cut down a lot of those fumbles significantly. But he does need to protect the ball better as well.
Luckily he seems to do a good job of that as a runner. His main problems with fumbling tend to be when he holds the ball too long in the pocket or behind the LOS.
That's different than how the 2 events should be viewed from the standpoint of grading those events against a QB. If a QB get's hit because an OL misses an assignment and fumbles, that's a lot less of a reflection on his capability as a player than throwing a ball he shouldn't have that gets picked off - even though the outcome of the first scenario ends up worse in terms of field position.
Jones worst plays this past year were the INTs he forced early in the season as opposed to just throwing the ball away. Had he fumbled on those same exact plays the field position may have been better for the opposition but that doesn't make the bad decision to throw the ball less bad. In many of those situations taking the sack was the right decision though obviously you wouldn't want to negate that correct decision with a fumble.
Krieg - 34 fumbles in 30 games in '89-'90 (1.13/game)
Moon - 29 fumbles in 31 games in '89-'90 (or '90-'91) (.94/game)
Collins - 32 fumbles in 32 games in '01-'02 (1.00/game)
Jones - 29 fumbles in 27 games in '19-'20 (1.07/game)
I did find a guy who was worse than all of them...
Daunte Culpepper fumbled 16, 23, and 16 times in 2001, 2002, and 2003. Incredible.
Wow. Jones has got to be able to improve on this while still finding ways to lift up his game and the Offense. Some of the free agent additions and hopefully some more investment in the OL during the draft will also help.
But there is no debate, this is historically bad.
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Ball security prior to the NFL. How he carries the ball needed work, probably play to play awareness as well. Bad pass protection certainly plays its role. From my view there are issues beyond pass protection that need attention to get past this fumbling issue.
Agree with this. But simply being hit less will cut down a lot of those fumbles significantly. But he does need to protect the ball better as well.
Luckily he seems to do a good job of that as a runner. His main problems with fumbling tend to be when he holds the ball too long in the pocket or behind the LOS.
Britt, my main hope for Jones is that he seems to want to get better and from all accounts works hard.
Secondary is this coaching staff, their emphasis on teaching gives me hope as well. Grouping a coaching staff that is all about proper teaching with a player that wants to work, and accepts teaching can go a really long way, although, and it must be said, guarantees nothing.
I hope you are well.
Jones has had major issue thus far with turnovers, especially fumbles. It's an issue that must be corrected if he wants to stay in the league as a starting qb.
Yep, a must and that will go a long way in validating his selection as the #6 overall pick...
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Jones has had major issue thus far with turnovers, especially fumbles. It's an issue that must be corrected if he wants to stay in the league as a starting qb.
Yep, a must and that will go a long way in validating his selection as the #6 overall pick...
Certainly, Missing on a top five pick or right outside the top 5 is a tough blow. At the very least in my opinion you want an impact player, while hoping for a HOF player.
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In comment 15220138 crick n NC said:
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Jones has had major issue thus far with turnovers, especially fumbles. It's an issue that must be corrected if he wants to stay in the league as a starting qb.
Yep, a must and that will go a long way in validating his selection as the #6 overall pick...
Certainly, Missing on a top five pick or right outside the top 5 is a tough blow. At the very least in my opinion you want an impact player, while hoping for a HOF player.
Yep on impact. And the reality is many of us are really just hoping our #6 pick improves enough to solidify his starting job in Year 3.
Otherwise, the Giants have less options and must consider yet another QB in 2022...
That's different than how the 2 events should be viewed from the standpoint of grading those events against a QB. If a QB get's hit because an OL misses an assignment and fumbles, that's a lot less of a reflection on his capability as a player than throwing a ball he shouldn't have that gets picked off - even though the outcome of the first scenario ends up worse in terms of field position.
Jones worst plays this past year were the INTs he forced early in the season as opposed to just throwing the ball away. Had he fumbled on those same exact plays the field position may have been better for the opposition but that doesn't make the bad decision to throw the ball less bad. In many of those situations taking the sack was the right decision though obviously you wouldn't want to negate that correct decision with a fumble.
If you are looking at total turnovers, I would rather have a QB whose turnovers are more interception based than fumble based. Not all interceptions are created equal just as not all fumbles are created equal. With an interception, if the QB is making the right read and puts it in the right spot, but the TE has it his hands and it goes righto into defender's arms that is not on the QB. If the QB is trying to make a play that has little hope of success rather than throwing it away and living for the next down or misreads basic coverage schemes that worries me about a QB. Similarly if a fumble is caused because his blindside is not giving QB any time and D makes a great play on a ball that is being held properly that is hard to blame on a QB. The problem with Jones is that too many fumbles were due to holding onto the ball too long, not accounting for blindside, and overall being too easy to separate the ball from. If we are going to exercise the 5th year option, those fumbles need to really drop.