for display only
Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner

Archived Thread

NGT: Zach Wilson not worthy of 1st round pick, Matt Waldman

Producer : 4/11/2021 1:26 pm
Matt Waldmann has developed a decent rep for evaluating college prospects.

With Zach Wilson, he doesn't see the comparisons to Mahomes or Rodgers. He thinks he is closer to Lock or Love and the ceiling is Mayfield.

He admits he has fine arm strength and does well off-platform. And he thinks he might eventually develop into a starter, but that's not first round material.

He does not view Wilson as at the level of Burrow, Tua, Herbert, or Kyler as he is not an accurate processor of coverage. Thinks defenses will exploit Wilson more than the others. His tape shows results but lacks the underlying processes that QBs need to demonstrate to have success in the NFL. The best thing Wilson does is throw back shoulder but he doesn't understand how to throw the ball in the middle of the field without getting his receiver killed or getting picked off. And more...

So if the Jets are drafting Wilson, are they making another tremendous mistake? Or is it possible the Jets may not select Wilson, and go another way.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 4/11/2021 1:38 pm : link
No clue but I think it's set in stone Jets are taking Wilson.
and yet  
ryanmkeane : 4/11/2021 1:40 pm : link
Gil Brandt thinks he might be better than Lawrence. Opinions vary and we won't know for 3-4 years on these QBs
His tape shows results but lacks the underlying processes that QBs  
arniefez : 4/11/2021 1:40 pm : link
need to demonstrate to have success in the NFL? Who knew that could be evaluated before three years in the NFL?
I doubt the Jets consider Matt Waldman's opinion  
GFAN52 : 4/11/2021 1:41 pm : link
if they select Wilson, which I think is a going to happen.
RE: and yet  
JoeyBigBlue : 4/11/2021 1:42 pm : link
In comment 15216538 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Gil Brandt thinks he might be better than Lawrence. Opinions vary and we won't know for 3-4 years on these QBs


I respect Brandt a ton, but that’s a really hard sell to me.
We know all the 5 QBs won't be all franchise  
George from PA : 4/11/2021 1:42 pm : link
.
RE: We know all the 5 QBs won't be all franchise  
Spider56 : 4/11/2021 1:53 pm : link
In comment 15216544 George from PA said:
Quote:
.


+1 ... now where’s the crystal ball that knows which ones will or won’t be.
Elway, Kelly and Marino vs Blackledge, Eason and O’Brien.
What we DO know the Jets will find a way to screw up a good thing  
glowrider : 4/11/2021 2:02 pm : link
It doesn’t matter if they got Trevor Lawrence. They’d find a way to screw him up, too.

Of this, I have no doubt.
Spider  
Tony in Berlin : 4/11/2021 2:04 pm : link
Manning vs. Rivers vs. Roethlisberger
A lot of these guys sell content  
UConn4523 : 4/11/2021 2:06 pm : link
above all else. No idea if he’s right or wrong but I just try to keep that in mind when looking at all these prospects.
No one knows for sure  
Lines of Scrimmage : 4/11/2021 2:10 pm : link
Jets have a lot of picks the next two years. The GM talked about resetting things financially as a reason to trade Darnold. With a new HC he is in a good spot if they draft well.

The college game is a lot different than the NFL. Jeremiah made a great point about all the QB's who are considered 1st round talents had on two games where they were not the better team. They won't be in that situation anymore. Harder to find mismatches, running game and pass pro all working. Just about every Sunday is a battle.
The season of lies.  
Giant John : 4/11/2021 2:15 pm : link
I don’t really care anyway.
RE: and yet  
Big Blue '56 : 4/11/2021 2:20 pm : link
In comment 15216538 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
Gil Brandt thinks he might be better than Lawrence. Opinions vary and we won't know for 3-4 years on these QBs


Unless it’s Jones. A year and a half is plenty
RE: Spider  
Spider56 : 4/11/2021 2:31 pm : link
In comment 15216578 Tony in Berlin said:
Quote:
Manning vs. Rivers vs. Roethlisberger


Well, JP Losman also went in the 1st round that year too. 🙀
Offenses of QB's for this draft  
Lines of Scrimmage : 4/11/2021 2:41 pm : link
Bama 541ypg 358pypg 183rypg
BYU 522ypg 332pypg 190rypg
OHSt 519 262 256
Clem 502 348 153

Lot of pitch and catch in the college game. Balanced with the running game. Next year I bet the numbers are very close at all the schools other than BYU who I don't follow.

This is the reason why it is so hard to project and why so many fall short imo.
RE: Offenses of QB's for this draft  
Producer : 4/11/2021 2:56 pm : link
In comment 15216611 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
Bama 541ypg 358pypg 183rypg
BYU 522ypg 332pypg 190rypg
OHSt 519 262 256
Clem 502 348 153

Lot of pitch and catch in the college game. Balanced with the running game. Next year I bet the numbers are very close at all the schools other than BYU who I don't follow.

This is the reason why it is so hard to project and why so many fall short imo.


Yes. Excellent point.
Talent of the team drafting  
larryflower37 : 4/11/2021 3:36 pm : link
And coaching staff play an important role in the success of the drafted QB.
The Jets could make anyone of these QBs under perform.
If the Jets draft Wilson he is going to a horrible situation and it will take a lot more than physical talent to get him through it.
RE: RE: and yet  
Mike from Ohio : 4/11/2021 4:09 pm : link
In comment 15216595 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 15216538 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


Gil Brandt thinks he might be better than Lawrence. Opinions vary and we won't know for 3-4 years on these QBs



Unless it’s Jones. A year and a half is plenty


So you still think the jury is still out on Dwayne Haskins? Maybe he still turns into a franchise QB?
Against conventional wisdom, but actually a safe call.  
81_Great_Dane : 4/11/2021 4:27 pm : link
Most QBs bust, including QBs picked near the top of the first round. So the odds are with Waldman. If Wilson busts, he can say "I told you so."

Impress me by telling me who will be an All-Pro. Much tougher call.
RE: RE: RE: and yet  
section125 : 4/11/2021 4:29 pm : link
In comment 15216688 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 15216595 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


In comment 15216538 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


Gil Brandt thinks he might be better than Lawrence. Opinions vary and we won't know for 3-4 years on these QBs



Unless it’s Jones. A year and a half is plenty



So you still think the jury is still out on Dwayne Haskins? Maybe he still turns into a franchise QB?


Yea, there is a brilliant comparison a bench rider vs a starter.
RE: RE: RE: and yet  
broadbandz : 4/11/2021 4:52 pm : link
In comment 15216688 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 15216595 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


In comment 15216538 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


Gil Brandt thinks he might be better than Lawrence. Opinions vary and we won't know for 3-4 years on these QBs



Unless it’s Jones. A year and a half is plenty



So you still think the jury is still out on Dwayne Haskins? Maybe he still turns into a franchise QB?


Haskins has off field issues and coaches hate him. If he worked hard he would have got plenty more chances.
I think  
joeinpa : 4/11/2021 5:51 pm : link
Jets already made a mistake moving off Darnold

We write these kids off too early
Boylhart gives him a late-1st round grade...  
Milton : 4/11/2021 6:11 pm : link
Quote:
For me, I see a lack of confidence, accuracy when throwing under pressure, and the ability to deal mentally with the blitzes and speed that will come at him at the next level as the real issues of concern. He reminds me a lot of Jimmy Garoppolo and like Jimmy will need strong play calling and coaching to mask these issues in the big games...He is the type of quarterback who doesn’t make the talent around him better, they make him better. Similar to Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t pass on selecting him in the 1st round for sure, he has the talent to be an excellent starting quarterback for the team that selects him.

full profile - ( New Window )
I don't know how good he'll be  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 4/11/2021 6:17 pm : link
but I do think the constant mentions of "ability to make off-platform throws outside the pocket" are because teams are hoping to land the next Mahomes or Rodgers and they can see Wilson possess some similar traits to those 2 greats. In particular, I've never heard the term "off-platform" used more often for a QB prospect than with Wilson, and that's because it's what Mahomes is known for.

I think it's possible that the constant Mahomes/Rodgers comparisons with Wilson might have us and NFL teams overrating him and overlooking some of the negatives a little bit.
RE: I don't know how good he'll be  
Producer : 4/11/2021 6:19 pm : link
In comment 15216825 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
but I do think the constant mentions of "ability to make off-platform throws outside the pocket" are because teams are hoping to land the next Mahomes or Rodgers and they can see Wilson possess some similar traits to those 2 greats. In particular, I've never heard the term "off-platform" used more often for a QB prospect than with Wilson, and that's because it's what Mahomes is known for.

I think it's possible that the constant Mahomes/Rodgers comparisons with Wilson might have us and NFL teams overrating him and overlooking some of the negatives a little bit.


Waldman does make this point. he says a lot of analysts are over-compensating for missing on Mahomes, so when they see these skills they gush over them.
This strange...  
bw in dc : 4/11/2021 8:12 pm : link
Quote:
The best thing Wilson does is throw back shoulder [b]but he doesn't understand how to throw the ball in the middle of the field without getting his receiver killed or getting picked off.
/b]

Does Wilson throw the ball to high over the middle and the exposes his receivers to big hits? Does he makes his receivers have to extend too much to catch the ball over the middle? I really don't what the hell this means or what the points of reference are.

RE: This strange...  
Milton : 4/11/2021 8:50 pm : link
In comment 15216924 bw in dc said:
Quote:
The best thing Wilson does is throw back shoulder but he doesn't understand how to throw the ball in the middle of the field without getting his receiver killed or getting picked off.

Does Wilson throw the ball to high over the middle and the exposes his receivers to big hits? Does he makes his receivers have to extend too much to catch the ball over the middle? I really don't what the hell this means or what the points of reference are.
My guess is it's some version of all of the above. Basically that when throwing over the middle, he doesn't make adjustments that factor in post-reception contact.

I'm probably gonna purchase the 1,000 page pdf of his scouting reports. It includes future delivery of his post-draft thoughts as well as 2021 in-season analyses on rookie performances. Sounds like a pretty good deal for $21.95 if you value his opinion.

Just from watching his sales pitch (linked below) I picked up on some of his rankings...

QBs
1. Lawrence
2. Lance
3. Jones
4. Fields
5. Mills
6. Wilson

WR
1. Chase
2. Waddle
3. Bateman
4. Smith
5. Toney
6. Wallace
7. Marshall
8. Moore
9. Darby

RB
1. Sermon
2. Harris
3. Williams
4. Carter
5. Etienne
6. Brown
7. Herbert
8. Hill
9. Stevenson
10. Patterson
11. Jefferson
12. Roundtree
13. Gainwell

Matt Waldman's 2021 Rookie Scouting Report - ( New Window )
Milton...  
bw in dc : 4/11/2021 9:15 pm : link
I have watched a lot of Wilson video and didn't see a lot of throws between the hashes where the receiver looked vulnerable to big hits.

Interesting that he has Wilson below Mills, too. I think Mills is just as good as Jones.

And how about those WR rankings? Smith at #4... ;)

Another thing to consider  
computahfolks99 : 4/11/2021 10:13 pm : link
is that he is going to be a Jet. That automatically decreases his chances of success tenfold.
RE: RE: and yet  
kelsto811 : 4/11/2021 10:48 pm : link
In comment 15216543 JoeyBigBlue said:
Quote:
In comment 15216538 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


Gil Brandt thinks he might be better than Lawrence. Opinions vary and we won't know for 3-4 years on these QBs



I respect Brandt a ton, but that’s a really hard sell to me.


Simms has Wilson ranked ahead of Lawrence too, which is interesting.
RE: RE: RE: RE: and yet  
Mike from Ohio : 4/12/2021 7:45 am : link
In comment 15216714 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15216688 Mike from Ohio said:


Quote:


In comment 15216595 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


In comment 15216538 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


Gil Brandt thinks he might be better than Lawrence. Opinions vary and we won't know for 3-4 years on these QBs



Unless it’s Jones. A year and a half is plenty



So you still think the jury is still out on Dwayne Haskins? Maybe he still turns into a franchise QB?



Yea, there is a brilliant comparison a bench rider vs a starter.


Are you really that shirt-all stupid Section? What comparison did I make? I asked about Dwayne Haskins only. What was the other comp?
Wilson is a big gamble  
averagejoe : 4/12/2021 8:14 am : link
Small school, weak schedule, one year starter that shot up the boards. Darnold/Rosen were considered better prospects than Wilson/Fields and look how they turned out. Jets don't ruin QB's - they always draft the wrong one.
RE: RE: This strange...  
Producer : 4/12/2021 8:16 am : link
In comment 15216948 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 15216924 bw in dc said:


Quote:


The best thing Wilson does is throw back shoulder but he doesn't understand how to throw the ball in the middle of the field without getting his receiver killed or getting picked off.

Does Wilson throw the ball to high over the middle and the exposes his receivers to big hits? Does he makes his receivers have to extend too much to catch the ball over the middle? I really don't what the hell this means or what the points of reference are.


My guess is it's some version of all of the above. Basically that when throwing over the middle, he doesn't make adjustments that factor in post-reception contact.

I'm probably gonna purchase the 1,000 page pdf of his scouting reports. It includes future delivery of his post-draft thoughts as well as 2021 in-season analyses on rookie performances. Sounds like a pretty good deal for $21.95 if you value his opinion.

Just from watching his sales pitch (linked below) I picked up on some of his rankings...

QBs
1. Lawrence
2. Lance
3. Jones
4. Fields
5. Mills
6. Wilson

WR
1. Chase
2. Waddle
3. Bateman
4. Smith
5. Toney
6. Wallace
7. Marshall
8. Moore
9. Darby

RB
1. Sermon
2. Harris
3. Williams
4. Carter
5. Etienne
6. Brown
7. Herbert
8. Hill
9. Stevenson
10. Patterson
11. Jefferson
12. Roundtree
13. Gainwell Matt Waldman's 2021 Rookie Scouting Report - ( New Window )


great info.. I am thinking of getting his RSP as well. He doesn't shy away from making bold calls. Sermon as top RB is an interesting call. He was the first to tout him and he is gaining some traction among evaluators.
RE: Milton...  
Producer : 4/12/2021 8:18 am : link
In comment 15216963 bw in dc said:
Quote:
I have watched a lot of Wilson video and didn't see a lot of throws between the hashes where the receiver looked vulnerable to big hits.

Interesting that he has Wilson below Mills, too. I think Mills is just as good as Jones.

And how about those WR rankings? Smith at #4... ;)


Part of his critique of Wilson is that he can be inaccurate with balls sailing short and long. And he doesn't see the coverages very well and can fail to make the adjustment to get the ball in the spot where the receiver will avoid a hit.
There are certain..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 4/12/2021 8:40 am : link
players who wash out because of things behind the scenes. That's what happened with Rosen and Haskins. Coaches didn't like the way either approached film study and prep. It is what happened with Manziel too.

So while the rule of thumb is to give a player 3 years, there are certainly cases where the book is written earlier and the player then has to find a new team to change perceptions. We can't say definitively that Haskins and Rosen are busts right now, but they may also never get another significant chance to change that perception.
Older Ryan Leaf wrote his younger self a letter a few yrs ago  
Dr. D : 4/12/2021 12:29 pm : link
When guys like Haskins come out of college, teams should encourage them to read Leaf's letter to his younger self.

In summary, I think he basically said grow TF up, take the job seriously or you'll be out of the league quickly and forever labeled (correctly) as a bust.

RE: RE: RE: This strange...  
Milton : 4/12/2021 7:38 pm : link
In comment 15217158 Producer said:
Quote:
Sermon as top RB is an interesting call. He was the first to tout him and he is gaining some traction among evaluators.
Boylhart is also a fan (going back to his February 7 profile)...
Quote:
He is a natural running back with a glide like gate, high football IQ, and n excellent feel for the game. Trey can make an opponent miss in between the tackles or in the open field. He has the leg power to hit the line and make the tough yards and move the chains on third down against any yardage. Trey is a complete running back with the eye/hand coordination to catch the ball down the field as well as any receiver in this draft. As I stated before he is smart and understands how to set up his blocks, making it easy for the offensive lineman to block for him.

full profile - ( New Window )
Back to the Corner