I know I am a bit late with this, but I have really been into listening to a lot of podcasts lately. Sometimes when I am all caught up with Giants podcasts, I will listen to podcasts from other teams in the division to get some intel and information.
Today, I listened to an Eagles podcast with beat reporter Eliot Shorr-Parks. Shorr-Parks is a bit skewed, but I do not know much about the co-host Joe Giglio.
On this particular podcast, they discussed the over/under predictions for the teams in the NFC east. The sportsbooks vary a little, but here are the numbers:
Dallas win total 9.5
Washington win total 8
Giants win total 7
Philadelphia win total 6.5
The two hosts like the over for Washington and Philadelphia, and the under for Dallas and the Giants.
They both think that the division will come down to Washington and Dallas.
But when they discussed the Giants, they were really unimpressed with the team. Here are a few of their points:
-weakest defensive line in the division
-weakest offensive line in the division
-worst QB in the division
-worst head coach in the division (not including Sirnanni, who has no experience)
-they essentially think that they overachieved by winning 6 games, and that they won't quite be as lucky this season
My initial response was to brush this off, but even if he isn't completely objective, it is a look into the mind of the opponent.
This got me to thinking...yes, we all like the moves this offseason, and yes, expectations are low as this is not a team competing for a championship, but are we overrating the talent of this roster? How much progress has really been made?
So if Jones takes that nxt step and stops turning the ball over, I could see them go 10-6.
If he plays like he did last year, then I think 5-6 wins is about right.
Well said
Yea Sirianni is clearly a guaranteed success! I bet these guys never even heard of him before he was hired by Philadelphia.
I agree Washington arrow is pointing up.....dallas and eagles pointing down
Worst coach...is not Judge....the Dallas group is bad.....do not know enough about Eagle....Washington might be best...but Giants coaches in contention
Worse OL maybe...at least until proven otherwise....but DL?..dallas is worst....washington best....eagles showing age
QB...I can accept worst until proven otherwise...?
Vegas wants a number that gets people to beat both ways.
It's more of a heat check than anything else.
The win total is based more on what fans think the total should be than any expert.
Yes they do have a good reason for it. It’s set at 7 so they can make money.
Quote:
but the sportsbooks aren't. If they have the number set at 7, there's likely a very good reason for it.
Yes they do have a good reason for it. It’s set at 7 so they can make money.
they make the safest money by being as close to correct as possible.
Quote:
In comment 15217085 Go Terps said:
Quote:
but the sportsbooks aren't. If they have the number set at 7, there's likely a very good reason for it.
Yes they do have a good reason for it. It’s set at 7 so they can make money.
they make the safest money by being as close to correct as possible.
They make the safest money by being closest to what their bettors think is correct.
The two highest graded interior lineman in the division last year were Giants(Dex and Williams).
Yes they lost Tomlinson. Frankly he was the weakest, by far, of the starters. I think Shelton and Hill will be more than adequate replacements and I think Hill is a much better pass rusher than DT(DT better vs run).
But yes, we overvalue the roster. But I think this coaching staff will get everything and more out of what they have. The only position group I "worry" about is OLine.
Quote:
In comment 15217110 BillT said:
Quote:
In comment 15217085 Go Terps said:
Quote:
but the sportsbooks aren't. If they have the number set at 7, there's likely a very good reason for it.
Yes they do have a good reason for it. It’s set at 7 so they can make money.
they make the safest money by being as close to correct as possible.
They make the safest money by being closest to what their bettors think is correct.
The safest money is when 50% is over and 50% are under so while they set the # initially, the bettors dictate it after that and bettors in the aggregate are usually pretty accurate.
Quote:
In comment 15217112 Capt. Don said:
The safest money is when 50% is over and 50% are under so while they set the # initially, the bettors dictate it after that and bettors in the aggregate are usually pretty accurate.
And if they’re wrong on the number the line changes. So this number is only “accurate” for as long as it lasts.
And if they’re wrong on the number the line changes. So this number is only “accurate” for as long as it lasts.
Well, yeah. If DJ goes down with an ACL it will change. If we get a ridiculous haul in the draft it will change. If we trade for Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson it will change.
But we are talking about where the team stands right now and that is what the 7 represents. If nothing significant happens to our roster, relative to other teams, it will probably remain pretty close to 7.
Exactly. This is my main point. I’m realistic. I’m hoping for progress I’m the form of competing for the playoffs, but maybe we’re still not there yet. We all knew rebuilding this roster would take time, but was hoping we’d be closer to competing than we are at this point.
The offseason acquisitions got me excited and thinking that we’re getting closer, but maybe they aren’t.
Sometimes it just seems like one step forward, and two steps back with this team.
I really think the Giants are about to flip the script on the Eagles. Last year's 2nd game win against them was huge given the mental block they have had against them for the past forever. I think the Giants have started a stretch where they dominate a team rebuilding for the next couple years. If history remains true - THis is usually the way it goes for between the Giants/EAgles.
Mike McCarthy and Dak are the wild card for Dallas. If Dak comes back healthy and Mike McCarthy can win over that Dallas locker room - two big IFs - Dallas will be tough to beat.
He predicted them going 10-6 last year. Whelp.
I think he has something like an 8.5% success rate. Kind of like my mom who won her office pool once by picking teams with animals that she liked. "Dolphins are cute. I'm going with the Dolphins." I put more stock in my mom's opinion than I do this tool.
I think that, even if you align with the GoTerps dogma, you can safely slot Jones in at the #2 spot, with him sliding to 3 if Fitzmagic is more Cinderella than pumpkin.
Quote:
And if they’re wrong on the number the line changes. So this number is only “accurate” for as long as it lasts.
Well, yeah. If DJ goes down with an ACL it will change. If we get a ridiculous haul in the draft it will change. If we trade for Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson it will change.
But we are talking about where the team stands right now and that is what the 7 represents. If nothing significant happens to our roster, relative to other teams, it will probably remain pretty close to 7.
I think that that this is key. Prognosticators and detractors rate us with surety completely based upon what we were without looking at, or acknowledging, any changes made since. And, I would bet money that the ones supporting other teams (well, maybe not bw) look at us statically but at the same time take into account changes and improvements made by the teams that they support.
Quote:
And if they’re wrong on the number the line changes. So this number is only “accurate” for as long as it lasts.
Well, yeah. If DJ goes down with an ACL it will change. If we get a ridiculous haul in the draft it will change. If we trade for Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson it will change.
But we are talking about where the team stands right now and that is what the 7 represents. If nothing significant happens to our roster, relative to other teams, it will probably remain pretty close to 7.
First, "pretty close" isn't the same and nothing you said has to happen if the bettors, in general, feel it's low and bet the over the line will also change. So, it is only accurate as long as it lasts.
First, "pretty close" isn't the same and nothing you said has to happen if the bettors, in general, feel it's low and bet the over the line will also change. So, it is only accurate as long as it lasts.
Sure, it could change .5 or even 1 but does that really change the point of the OP? To us fans, is a 7 win season a whole lot different than a 6 or 8 win season? Not to me, it isnt. Not in a normal year where none of those are likely to win the division.
Why would bettors all of a sudden change their thinking, en masse, about the giants outlook enough to move the needle?
Anyway, I will set the O/U on the change in the O/U (currently at 7) at 1. (yes, I am joking).
I'm expecting a bounce back year from Jones, SB, and some positive growth from their young core. Even in a weak division, I don't see a playoff roster yet.
Defensively we may have the best D in the division. We match up very well against the East here.
2) if we win 9 games or less those same 90% will put the blame on the QB no matter what. Cause in case you didn’t know, he should be a miracle worker.
I'm expecting a bounce back year from Jones, SB, and some positive growth from their young core. Even in a weak division, I don't see a playoff roster yet.
I dunno. I think that the defense is slightly improved and also deeper. And, it was a fairly good defense last year. If the offense shows modest improvement (goes up to the middle of the pack), which with the additions, with seasoning, with Barkley/Rudolph, with (hopefully) Smith/Waddle, I would be very optimistic will happen, then I can envision us challenging for the division again.
I will easily take the over.
We win the division going away or there should be an investigation.
Quote:
They won 6 games last season including 3 backup QBs. You play in the team in front of you, but it shouldn't be discounted either.
I'm expecting a bounce back year from Jones, SB, and some positive growth from their young core. Even in a weak division, I don't see a playoff roster yet.
I dunno. I think that the defense is slightly improved and also deeper. And, it was a fairly good defense last year. If the offense shows modest improvement (goes up to the middle of the pack), which with the additions, with seasoning, with Barkley/Rudolph, with (hopefully) Smith/Waddle, I would be very optimistic will happen, then I can envision us challenging for the division again.
Even if they win the division, it's not a roster that will compete with legit playoff teams. Considerable growth on the football field needs to be visible first, especially from Jones and the offense. All of his weaknesses are the elements of QB play that kill teams. I'll leave it at that, I know many here don't want to read this type of perspective especially during the offseason.
One bad injury though (Golladay, Barkley, Jones, all of whom have been hurt in previous years) and this team is, IMO, definitely under a 7 win team.
Quote:
In comment 15217252 JonC said:
Quote:
They won 6 games last season including 3 backup QBs. You play in the team in front of you, but it shouldn't be discounted either.
I'm expecting a bounce back year from Jones, SB, and some positive growth from their young core. Even in a weak division, I don't see a playoff roster yet.
I dunno. I think that the defense is slightly improved and also deeper. And, it was a fairly good defense last year. If the offense shows modest improvement (goes up to the middle of the pack), which with the additions, with seasoning, with Barkley/Rudolph, with (hopefully) Smith/Waddle, I would be very optimistic will happen, then I can envision us challenging for the division again.
Even if they win the division, it's not a roster that will compete with legit playoff teams. Considerable growth on the football field needs to be visible first, especially from Jones and the offense. All of his weaknesses are the elements of QB play that kill teams. I'll leave it at that, I know many here don't want to read this type of perspective especially during the offseason.
You're right though. Everything depends on Jones and his growth.
If the Giants OL gels, I find it hard to believe they will not win 9-10 games.
Dolphins set at 6 - they win 10
49ers set at 10.5 - they win 6
Houston set at 7.5 - they win 4
Some are off because of injuries, some because the teams outperformed. I'll continue to focus on the changeover year to year as to why we can win a bunch of games if certain things break the right way.
If I had to bet over or under, I'd bet the under.
Comparing the Giants to the Eagles, Cowboys and WFT roster is not that useful an exercise b/c the majority of the games are going to be against teams outside the division.
If Giants can go 4-2 in NFC East again, then they need to find 5 more wins out of the other 11 games to reach winning record.
The Chiefs, Bucs, Rams, Dolphins, and Saints are probably better than the Giants based on current roster or will be after the draft so add 5 losses and have proven couches (4-7).
The Chargers, Panthers and Falcons will be competitive teams, but relatively unproven coaching staff so lets say we beat 1 of the 3 (6-8).
The Bears, Raiders, and Broncos are probably going to be a train wrecks with inconsistent QB play and coaches on the host seat, but without knowing Giants injury status in the future lets say we beat 2 out of 3 (8-9).
Much of the team's success this year will depend on how DJ plays in his 2nd year in Garrett's offense. DJ definitely regressed in 2020 from 2019 and his stats were just barely above Sam Darnold in his 2nd year. A lot of people on this site and in the Giants FO are hoping that DJ will be better in 2021 than in 2020, but hope is not a plan and that is where the outside pessimism about the 2021 Giants might be justified. Putting all excuses from last year aside, if DJ can't cut down on the mental errors and speed up his progression in the pocket, then the Giants will need to move on from him and Gettleman in 2022.