NFT: Phillies at first place Mets. Game 3. Peterson

In comment 15221251 allstarjim said:

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Now JdG and a slowly waking up offense to finish these bastids off for the sweep tomorrow. Let's Go!

We may have already swept them. Tomorrow looks doubtful. Then we have snow on Friday and 19 degree weather on Saturday.

Gulp.

But exciting game going on in Windy City

In comment 15221261 Mike in NY said:

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But exciting game going on in Windy City

👀

but good for Rodon.

In comment 15221157 ryanmkeane said:

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I truly don’t think Rojas has any feel during the game - he just makes moves based on thinking that each reliever is going to be great, when in reality you HAVE to understand when you have a starter who is dealing you let him go until it’s somewhat obvious he’s done, especially w the way our bullpen has been performing. Instead, he thinks Familia is good. He’s not good. He’s a bad reliever.

Agree 100%

In comment 15221166 Vanzetti said:

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You gotta give him credit for going to Loup against Didii A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp

No, he doesn't get credit; he created the mess in the first place by going with a guy who hasn't shown anything for the least three years and keeps putting him in high leverage situations. He's lucky Loup bailed him out...

In comment 15221297 speedywheels said:

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In comment 15221166 Vanzetti said: Quote: You gotta give him credit for going to Loup against Didii A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp No, he doesn't get credit; he created the mess in the first place by going with a guy who hasn't shown anything for the least three years and keeps putting him in high leverage situations. He's lucky Loup bailed him out...

Pretty sure Familia was dominant yesterday..then today missed on a couple close pitches to Realmuto and then induced 2 weak ground balls..that's not "nothing"

I think Familia is close .I really do. The stuff is there..just need to get between the ears right with him.

Also couldn't have let Peterson face Realmuto again

In comment 15221297 speedywheels said:

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In comment 15221166 Vanzetti said: Quote: You gotta give him credit for going to Loup against Didii A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp No, he doesn't get credit; he created the mess in the first place by going with a guy who hasn't shown anything for the least three years and keeps putting him in high leverage situations. He's lucky Loup bailed him out...

they must see something building in him. He is throwing 97 which is still gas. Familia just needs to get his control back. fucking chill man

Aaand Realmuto has been terrible lifetime vs Familia...

they won the game.. on to the next one!

Tonight.

And Diaz, throwing like that, wow.

When he gets in trouble is missing with his fastball middle-middle. When he's locating he's untouchable.

In comment 15221302 Rory said:

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In comment 15221297 speedywheels said: Quote: In comment 15221166 Vanzetti said: Quote: You gotta give him credit for going to Loup against Didii A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp No, he doesn't get credit; he created the mess in the first place by going with a guy who hasn't shown anything for the least three years and keeps putting him in high leverage situations. He's lucky Loup bailed him out... they must see something building in him. He is throwing 97 which is still gas. Familia just needs to get his control back. fucking chill man

He's been garbage for the last two years (not counting 2021).

in 2019 and 2020, he threw 86.2 innings, and has 61 BB! Throw in 6 HBP, and his WHIP is .77 without even counting hits! When you do count in hits, WHIP is almost 1.7.

Even in 2018, which was a "good" year WHIP wise (1.2), he walked 28 in 71 innings, which is 3.5 BB/9 innings. That's terrible.

In 2017, his BB/9 was 5.5

In 2016? 3.6.

In other words, he hasn't had control for 5 years; he's not going to magically get it back now.

There is zero reason for him to be pitching in any high leverage situations whatsoever.

There aren't too many guys who can throw 97-99 with movement. He's generating a lot of weak contact and he's proven before he can succeed in NY. Definitely would not give up on him when there aren't too many better options.

As long as he can keep the walks down he can be good. The walks are the question but so far so good (1 in 3 appearances).

K-Rod career 3.59 bb/9
Hoffman career 2.54 bb/9
Kimbrel career 3.6 bb/9
Chapman career 4.13 bb/9
Wagner career - 3.0 bb/9
Hader career - 3.3 bb/9
Diaz career - 3.3 bb/9
Hoffman career 2.54 bb/9

there is only 1 Rivera (2.0 bb/9).

and not coincidentally why Lugo (2.35 bb/9) is such a unique asset in the pen.

Because the pitchers seem to be challenging batters directly.

In comment 15221321 Eric on Li said:

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K-Rod career 3.59 bb/9 Hoffman career 2.54 bb/9 Kimbrel career 3.6 bb/9 Chapman career 4.13 bb/9 Wagner career - 3.0 bb/9 Hader career - 3.3 bb/9 Diaz career - 3.3 bb/9 Hoffman career 2.54 bb/9 there is only 1 Rivera (2.0 bb/9). and not coincidentally why Lugo (2.35 bb/9) is such a unique asset in the pen.

Ok, fine - his BB/9 has “only” been terrible for 3 of the last 5 years

(Rolls eyes)

Again - he’s been brutal the last two years, there is very little evidence he’ll find his way back to being even semi reliable.

they'll just have to keep him on a short leash when they use him. I was very encouraged to watch Peterson pitch very well against a good team.

In comment 15221348 Ira said:

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they'll just have to keep him on a short leash when they use him. I was very encouraged to watch Peterson pitch very well against a good team.

Yeah that's one way to look at it...

The other way to look at it is you have a guy who at one time was a significant reason why the Mets made it to the World Series, was an All-Star who received MVP votes, and is 3rd in team history in saves all time... and he finally looks like he's regained the velocity and movement that made him one of the best closers in baseball...

If he can get even close to that, then once Lugo comes back the Mets bullpen is no longer just not a liability, its a strength..

It's not unheard of for relief pitchers to have multiple poor years and then have some renaissance years, especially when they have great stuff.

I'm not saying it's GOING to happen with Familia..but it's not crazy.

My eyes tell me the dude is close...and I also feel like it's pretty obvious.

But he still puts guys on every single inning. And he will continue to do so. And Mets fans who think he’s somehow back to normal cause he had a nice outing - even though he put 2 runners on and was incredibly lucky because of Loup’s DP, will be disappointed when Familia gives up a run in his next outing.

He can’t be trusted, and he’s not good anymore. Just because you have nice stuff doesn’t mean you’re good.

realizing that 2016 was *5 years ago*

In comment 15221134 ZGiants98 said:

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"organizational story" is dropping tomorrow and we should brace for it. Sandy is aware of it.

Is it the NYT article that gidie posted? Nothing new.

that BB/9 is the key for Familia. If he can't keep walks down he can't be effective. Velocity hasn't been a problem in his bad years - its the walks. GB% also took a nose dive in 2018 and 2019, so maybe that figures into it.

But man I am glad to see how well Walker, Stroman and Peterson at least yesterday have pitched so far. All three were questions marks for me - granted, Stroman was only because of the lack of 2020. Peterson's best pitch is his slider and he's using it more this year so far - 32% of pitches vs 26% last year. Nice 39% whiff percentage with it so far. That initial strike out with back to back sliders in the first against Hoskins was big.

He's also increased the rate of sinkers to 4 seamers vs last year - sinkers up from 16% to 30%. But overall still throwing sinker or fastball 53 % of the time.

could not be any happier with him so far. Thinking ahead (and injury may sort it out), I wonder what they do when Carrasco and Thor are back. It may be prudent to go with a 6 man rotation. Thor and Walker will be on innings limits. Maybe they shut down Walker for a bit. Good problem to have.

In comment 15221448 JB_in_DC said:

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that BB/9 is the key for Familia. If he can't keep walks down he can't be effective. Velocity hasn't been a problem in his bad years - its the walks. GB% also took a nose dive in 2018 and 2019, so maybe that figures into it.

From 2014-2018 Familia was basically one of the 10 best RP in baseball and his bb/9 was generally in the mid-3's (1 year way better, 1 partial year worse).

The last 2 years his bb/9 doubled into the mid 6's.

If he can stop walking people he can be an effective reliever.

If he can't, he won't.

Interestingly in 19+20 he started throwing his slider a lot more and his FB a lot less. So far this year he's thrown his FB more (76%). I'd imagine that was part of control problem but who knows.

In comment 15221480 KDavies said:

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could not be any happier with him so far. Thinking ahead (and injury may sort it out), I wonder what they do when Carrasco and Thor are back. It may be prudent to go with a 6 man rotation. Thor and Walker will be on innings limits. Maybe they shut down Walker for a bit. Good problem to have.

if everyone is healthy (which is unlikely) they should just give the guys on innings limits a 10 day dl break as necessary. Hopefully whenever anyone is showing signs of fatigue or dead arm. Load management to get as many of these guys to the playoffs in one piece as possible.

this is the problem I see with Mets fans. They are somehow clinging to this hope that Familia will become what he used to be. This is 2021, not 2014-2018.

News story?

Waiting for shoe to drop

In comment 15221391 ryanmkeane said:

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realizing that 2016 was *5 years ago*

2006 was 15 years ago and Ollie Perez is an elite bullpen arm... Lol

In comment 15221542 ryanmkeane said:

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this is the problem I see with Mets fans. They are somehow clinging to this hope that Familia will become what he used to be. This is 2021, not 2014-2018.

Clinging to hope and pointing out the possibility are 2 different things.

Like I said earlier..it's not uncommon for relief pitchers to have multi year rough stretches followed by a renaissance. So much of the game is mental..

This isn't a Matt Harvey or John Maine or Jon Niese situation where his arm is shot and there is no hope.

i gotcha, but the difference between winning the division, a wildcard, or out of the playoffs all together could be anywhere from 1-4 games with the way this division is.

keeping guys like Familia around leads to losses. i don't want to keep crushing the guy, i just don't see how he helps the team anymore. i'm hoping he can still be good, but i think we've seen enough with it

In comment 15221542 ryanmkeane said:

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this is the problem I see with Mets fans. They are somehow clinging to this hope that Familia will become what he used to be. This is 2021, not 2014-2018.

I don't quite follow. Relievers are extremely volatile so I don't think there's any issue hoping any of them bounce back, especially if they throw upper 90's and have a track record of success. I mean who would have ever predicted in 2010 that Oliver Perez is still a contributing big leaguer in 2021?

Now someone like Betances who is clearly not what he used to be because of injuries, struggling to get over 90 mph, I agree. Wish in one hand and shit in the other. But Familia is a totally different situation and has passed the eye test so far this year.

broke up. I guess it's good they didn't buy the Mets.

we have said the same thing about Familia the past two seasons

So far he is allowing weaker contact than just about any other pitcher in baseball (100th percentile exit velocity against, 97th percentile hard hit % against, 89th percentile max exit velocity against). He is also getting more hitters to chase pitches than 90% of other pitchers.

Add those 2 things together and his expected results (ERA, SLG%, OBA) are better than 80%+ of whatever the replacement option.

If that all continues he will help this team.

If that doesn't continue or his walk rates get too out of control (currently 22nd percentile) he will not help this team.

As fans of the Mets, which is the appropriate outcome to root for?

In comment 15221602 ryanmkeane said:

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we have said the same thing about Familia the past two seasons

1 of those 2 seasons was actually 1/3 of a season (and while his peripherals sucked his era was still under 4). And in 2019 he had a bone spur in his shoulder.

i get all that....i'm just saying. everytime the guy comes into the game, bad things tend to happen. you can be optimistic about the guy, no problem there...i just don't want to continue the rollercoaster ride

for the guy every time he comes in, but it's been a disappointment more often than not. even this season. he got lucky last night, lets be honest

In comment 15221631 ryanmkeane said:

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for the guy every time he comes in, but it's been a disappointment more often than not. even this season. he got lucky last night, lets be honest

he has a .455 BABIP against while allowing the weakest contact possible, that's actually the exact opposite of lucky.

In comment 15221628 ryanmkeane said:

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i get all that....i'm just saying. everytime the guy comes into the game, bad things tend to happen. you can be optimistic about the guy, no problem there...i just don't want to continue the rollercoaster ride

Every reliever in baseball is a roller coaster ride. Did you see Diaz the other day? That is the nature of the beast. If we got rid of all the relievers who are roller coaster rides there would be no relievers left.

we have no choice but to hope Familia is at a minimum adequate or better, but we all hope if he's not, with Cohen at the helm now we pivot and bring in some help (some way).

Bullpen is the area of the team with the least redundancy built in, but also maybe the most untested/unproven depth.

the Mets have Diaz, May, Castro, and Loup. They will eventually have Lugo as well. He's a bad contract, but he is can still be a useful piece in the bullpen.

I don't know why Rojas had him pitching in a 1 run game last night. Loup saved his butt inducing the DP. But at least Rojas had a short leash on him. I don't have faith in Familia at this point in 1 run games in the 7th like that, but the Mets do need to start working guys like him and Barnes into 2 or 3 or 4 run games, or the other guys will be burned out.

In comment 15221640 pjcas18 said:

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we have no choice but to hope Familia is at a minimum adequate or better, but we all hope if he's not, with Cohen at the helm now we pivot and bring in some help (some way). Bullpen is the area of the team with the least redundancy built in, but also maybe the most untested/unproven depth.

It's super early but Brad Hand seems to be picking up right where he's been the last few years and his FB velocity is actually up 1 mph. Passing on him on a 1 year deal (or even 2 year deal) is probably the thing I'm still most surprised by from this past offseason considering the cost was low enough he would have been cuttable right away with Cohen.

In comment 15221645 KDavies said:

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the Mets have Diaz, May, Castro, and Loup. They will eventually have Lugo as well. He's a bad contract, but he is can still be a useful piece in the bullpen. I don't know why Rojas had him pitching in a 1 run game last night. Loup saved his butt inducing the DP. But at least Rojas had a short leash on him. I don't have faith in Familia at this point in 1 run games in the 7th like that, but the Mets do need to start working guys like him and Barnes into 2 or 3 or 4 run games, or the other guys will be burned out.

The maddening thing with Familia is that it is almost always the walks, last night included. He had Segura 0-2 and gave up a chopper that barely got by the mound which is bad luck you can live with if you didn't already put a guy on base needlessly.

everyone always has excuses for Familia. "the guy hit a chopper....he got squeezed..."

Be complete BS but barstool is teasing a bad Mets story leaking tomorrow..

In comment 15221649 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 15221640 pjcas18 said: Quote: we have no choice but to hope Familia is at a minimum adequate or better, but we all hope if he's not, with Cohen at the helm now we pivot and bring in some help (some way). Bullpen is the area of the team with the least redundancy built in, but also maybe the most untested/unproven depth. It's super early but Brad Hand seems to be picking up right where he's been the last few years and his FB velocity is actually up 1 mph. Passing on him on a 1 year deal (or even 2 year deal) is probably the thing I'm still most surprised by from this past offseason considering the cost was low enough he would have been cuttable right away with Cohen.

For the life of me, I don't understand reports that if the Cohen deal had been complete, the Mets would have put in a waiver claim for hand. Shit, if I am spending billions, I am telling the Wilpons to put in a damn waiver claim as a show of good faith.

In comment 15221706 DanMetroMan said:

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Be complete BS but barstool is teasing a bad Mets story leaking tomorrow..

Or is Portnoy still pissed at Cohen?

Is the tweet

Exclusive: Another Mets scandal is on the way and the full story will be released tomorrow per sources 👀

In comment 15221696 ryanmkeane said:

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everyone always has excuses for Familia. "the guy hit a chopper....he got squeezed..."

The Mets have had a poor defense virtually the entire time he's pitched here and he's a ground ball pitcher.

How would you describe the hit he gave up yesterday?

In comment 15221715 KDavies said:

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For the life of me, I don't understand reports that if the Cohen deal had been complete, the Mets would have put in a waiver claim for hand. Shit, if I am spending billions, I am telling the Wilpons to put in a damn waiver claim as a show of good faith.

I can understand whatever legal red tape still existed a lot more than I can passing on him at virtually the same $ several months later. They got their mulligan and they elected not to take it for some reason.

In comment 15221432 GF1080 said:

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In comment 15221134 ZGiants98 said: Quote: "organizational story" is dropping tomorrow and we should brace for it. Sandy is aware of it. Is it the NYT article that gidie posted? Nothing new.

Supposed to be something else on “organizational culture”. My guess is it is from the Wilpon era...Sandy himself sent out a memo/warning to all employees.