Phillies Lineup
Andrew McCutchen – LF
Rhys Hoskins – 1B
Bryce Harper – RF
J.T. Realmuto – C
Alec Bohm – 3B
Jean Segura – 2B
Ronald Torreyes – SS
Roman Quinn – CF
Zack Wheeler – P
Mets Lineup
Brandon Nimmo – CF
Francisco Lindor – SS
Dominic Smith – LF
Pete Alonso – 1B
Jeff McNeil – 2B
Michael Conforto – RF
James McCann – C
Luis Guillorme – 3B
David Peterson – P
Bitter sweet facing Wheeler tonight. Should be a fun one. LGFM!
That said, I think this could be a fun one. Most likely, Wheeler dominates and we have to squeak across runs late if we want to have any chance....
But a lot of these guys spent a lot of time with Wheeler in BP, etc. I just have a sense this is gonna be a bit of a sparring/fun match...
That said, I think this could be a fun one. Most likely, Wheeler dominates and we have to squeak across runs late if we want to have any chance....
But a lot of these guys spent a lot of time with Wheeler in BP, etc. I just have a sense this is gonna be a bit of a sparring/fun match...
Never be 'fine' with an L. Let's kick their ass with Peterson and go for the sweep with JDG tomorrow!
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after sweeping yesterday. Im totally fine with an L today and deGrom going tomorrow afternoon.
That said, I think this could be a fun one. Most likely, Wheeler dominates and we have to squeak across runs late if we want to have any chance....
But a lot of these guys spent a lot of time with Wheeler in BP, etc. I just have a sense this is gonna be a bit of a sparring/fun match...
Never be 'fine' with an L. Let's kick their ass with Peterson and go for the sweep with JDG tomorrow!
I hear ya but it's early in the season. We are in first place. Its a long year. 3 of 4 from the Phillies right now is perfectly fine so long as deGrom can take Thursday's game. Obviously, tonight's matchup is a mismatch. But of course Im rooting for a W tonight too.
Never know what you get with Peterson but the bullpen is over worked already, this could be ugly.
For the betting crew over 8 looks good tonight.
I wonder when people start talking about extending Nimmo
dont look now but..
dont look now but..
Way too early. We will be lucky to get 5 IP out of him.
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6k's
dont look now but..
Way too early. We will be lucky to get 5 IP out of him.
its not his fault he's on a innings limit
Sandy is aware of it.
Sandy is aware of it.
Callaway related?
Sandy is aware of it.
Wonderful
Oh, look - a leadoff walk. Color me shocked...
Sandy is aware of it.
Any beat writers on this or you have an inside source?
Peterson would have been facing 3 righties and was having increasingly harder time putting guys away in 6th so I don’t begrudge the move. The problem is relying on the same 3 guys
Instead, he thinks Familia is good. He’s not good. He’s a bad reliever.
Realmuto is a far better hitter, especially for power, against lefties
A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp
A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp
Give him credit for taking out Familia after giving up a walk and a hit, and then bringing in a lefty vs a lefty?
A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp
It wasn’t as strategic as you’d think. With the 3 batter minimum if he did not end the inning, after Didi you had Roman Quinn and a LH PH for Wheeler unless Philly wanted to burn their backup C
I don’t believe so
No.
One more inning to go.
One more inning to go.
I hope this doesn’t cause Rojas to overuse him
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You gotta give him credit for going to Loup against Didii
A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp
Give him credit for taking out Familia after giving up a walk and a hit, and then bringing in a lefty vs a lefty?
Rojas made the right move, you need to chill.
5-1 good guys
5-1 good guys
I think he's going to be solid. It's a bummer Realmuto didn't want to come here but at the lesser cost I think McCann is going to be solid, and the money saved obviously helped them invest big in Lindor. And hopefully Conforto too.
Lugo
Castro
May
Familia
Loup
Smith
Vizcaino
While lookin to add more at the deadline.
Diaz holds the keys, but I think we are going to be more than fine.
LFGM
If there is a rainout tomorrow, this isn’t a waste
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Stupid wasting Diaz here.
If there is a rainout tomorrow, this isn’t a waste
True.
At the time he started warming it was 3-1. By the time it became 5-1 too late to get someone else up
It is pretty awesome haha although I don’t recognize it. Is that new this year? I thought he had something in Spanish.
We may have already swept them. Tomorrow looks doubtful. Then we have snow on Friday and 19 degree weather on Saturday.
Gulp.
👀
Instead, he thinks Familia is good. He’s not good. He’s a bad reliever.
Agree 100%
A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp
No, he doesn't get credit; he created the mess in the first place by going with a guy who hasn't shown anything for the least three years and keeps putting him in high leverage situations. He's lucky Loup bailed him out...
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You gotta give him credit for going to Loup against Didii
A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp
No, he doesn't get credit; he created the mess in the first place by going with a guy who hasn't shown anything for the least three years and keeps putting him in high leverage situations. He's lucky Loup bailed him out...
Pretty sure Familia was dominant yesterday..then today missed on a couple close pitches to Realmuto and then induced 2 weak ground balls..that's not "nothing"
I think Familia is close .I really do. The stuff is there..just need to get between the ears right with him.
Also couldn't have let Peterson face Realmuto again
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You gotta give him credit for going to Loup against Didii
A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp
No, he doesn't get credit; he created the mess in the first place by going with a guy who hasn't shown anything for the least three years and keeps putting him in high leverage situations. He's lucky Loup bailed him out...
they must see something building in him. He is throwing 97 which is still gas. Familia just needs to get his control back. fucking chill man
they won the game.. on to the next one!
And Diaz, throwing like that, wow.
When he gets in trouble is missing with his fastball middle-middle. When he's locating he's untouchable.
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In comment 15221166 Vanzetti said:
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You gotta give him credit for going to Loup against Didii
A lot managers would have left Familia in, looking for the gidp
No, he doesn't get credit; he created the mess in the first place by going with a guy who hasn't shown anything for the least three years and keeps putting him in high leverage situations. He's lucky Loup bailed him out...
they must see something building in him. He is throwing 97 which is still gas. Familia just needs to get his control back. fucking chill man
He's been garbage for the last two years (not counting 2021).
in 2019 and 2020, he threw 86.2 innings, and has 61 BB! Throw in 6 HBP, and his WHIP is .77 without even counting hits! When you do count in hits, WHIP is almost 1.7.
Even in 2018, which was a "good" year WHIP wise (1.2), he walked 28 in 71 innings, which is 3.5 BB/9 innings. That's terrible.
In 2017, his BB/9 was 5.5
In 2016? 3.6.
In other words, he hasn't had control for 5 years; he's not going to magically get it back now.
There is zero reason for him to be pitching in any high leverage situations whatsoever.
As long as he can keep the walks down he can be good. The walks are the question but so far so good (1 in 3 appearances).
Hoffman career 2.54 bb/9
Kimbrel career 3.6 bb/9
Chapman career 4.13 bb/9
Wagner career - 3.0 bb/9
Hader career - 3.3 bb/9
Diaz career - 3.3 bb/9
Hoffman career 2.54 bb/9
there is only 1 Rivera (2.0 bb/9).
and not coincidentally why Lugo (2.35 bb/9) is such a unique asset in the pen.
Hoffman career 2.54 bb/9
Kimbrel career 3.6 bb/9
Chapman career 4.13 bb/9
Wagner career - 3.0 bb/9
Hader career - 3.3 bb/9
Diaz career - 3.3 bb/9
Hoffman career 2.54 bb/9
there is only 1 Rivera (2.0 bb/9).
and not coincidentally why Lugo (2.35 bb/9) is such a unique asset in the pen.
Ok, fine - his BB/9 has “only” been terrible for 3 of the last 5 years
(Rolls eyes)
Again - he’s been brutal the last two years, there is very little evidence he’ll find his way back to being even semi reliable.
Yeah that's one way to look at it...
The other way to look at it is you have a guy who at one time was a significant reason why the Mets made it to the World Series, was an All-Star who received MVP votes, and is 3rd in team history in saves all time... and he finally looks like he's regained the velocity and movement that made him one of the best closers in baseball...
If he can get even close to that, then once Lugo comes back the Mets bullpen is no longer just not a liability, its a strength..
It's not unheard of for relief pitchers to have multiple poor years and then have some renaissance years, especially when they have great stuff.
I'm not saying it's GOING to happen with Familia..but it's not crazy.
My eyes tell me the dude is close...and I also feel like it's pretty obvious.
He can’t be trusted, and he’s not good anymore. Just because you have nice stuff doesn’t mean you’re good.
Sandy is aware of it.
Is it the NYT article that gidie posted? Nothing new.
But man I am glad to see how well Walker, Stroman and Peterson at least yesterday have pitched so far. All three were questions marks for me - granted, Stroman was only because of the lack of 2020. Peterson's best pitch is his slider and he's using it more this year so far - 32% of pitches vs 26% last year. Nice 39% whiff percentage with it so far. That initial strike out with back to back sliders in the first against Hoskins was big.
He's also increased the rate of sinkers to 4 seamers vs last year - sinkers up from 16% to 30%. But overall still throwing sinker or fastball 53 % of the time.
From 2014-2018 Familia was basically one of the 10 best RP in baseball and his bb/9 was generally in the mid-3's (1 year way better, 1 partial year worse).
The last 2 years his bb/9 doubled into the mid 6's.
If he can stop walking people he can be an effective reliever.
If he can't, he won't.
Interestingly in 19+20 he started throwing his slider a lot more and his FB a lot less. So far this year he's thrown his FB more (76%). I'd imagine that was part of control problem but who knows.
if everyone is healthy (which is unlikely) they should just give the guys on innings limits a 10 day dl break as necessary. Hopefully whenever anyone is showing signs of fatigue or dead arm. Load management to get as many of these guys to the playoffs in one piece as possible.
Waiting for shoe to drop
2006 was 15 years ago and Ollie Perez is an elite bullpen arm... Lol
Clinging to hope and pointing out the possibility are 2 different things.
Like I said earlier..it's not uncommon for relief pitchers to have multi year rough stretches followed by a renaissance. So much of the game is mental..
This isn't a Matt Harvey or John Maine or Jon Niese situation where his arm is shot and there is no hope.
keeping guys like Familia around leads to losses. i don't want to keep crushing the guy, i just don't see how he helps the team anymore. i'm hoping he can still be good, but i think we've seen enough with it
I don't quite follow. Relievers are extremely volatile so I don't think there's any issue hoping any of them bounce back, especially if they throw upper 90's and have a track record of success. I mean who would have ever predicted in 2010 that Oliver Perez is still a contributing big leaguer in 2021?
Now someone like Betances who is clearly not what he used to be because of injuries, struggling to get over 90 mph, I agree. Wish in one hand and shit in the other. But Familia is a totally different situation and has passed the eye test so far this year.
So far he is allowing weaker contact than just about any other pitcher in baseball (100th percentile exit velocity against, 97th percentile hard hit % against, 89th percentile max exit velocity against). He is also getting more hitters to chase pitches than 90% of other pitchers.
Add those 2 things together and his expected results (ERA, SLG%, OBA) are better than 80%+ of whatever the replacement option.
If that all continues he will help this team.
If that doesn't continue or his walk rates get too out of control (currently 22nd percentile) he will not help this team.
As fans of the Mets, which is the appropriate outcome to root for?
1 of those 2 seasons was actually 1/3 of a season (and while his peripherals sucked his era was still under 4). And in 2019 he had a bone spur in his shoulder.
he has a .455 BABIP against while allowing the weakest contact possible, that's actually the exact opposite of lucky.
Every reliever in baseball is a roller coaster ride. Did you see Diaz the other day? That is the nature of the beast. If we got rid of all the relievers who are roller coaster rides there would be no relievers left.
Bullpen is the area of the team with the least redundancy built in, but also maybe the most untested/unproven depth.
I don't know why Rojas had him pitching in a 1 run game last night. Loup saved his butt inducing the DP. But at least Rojas had a short leash on him. I don't have faith in Familia at this point in 1 run games in the 7th like that, but the Mets do need to start working guys like him and Barnes into 2 or 3 or 4 run games, or the other guys will be burned out.
Bullpen is the area of the team with the least redundancy built in, but also maybe the most untested/unproven depth.
It's super early but Brad Hand seems to be picking up right where he's been the last few years and his FB velocity is actually up 1 mph. Passing on him on a 1 year deal (or even 2 year deal) is probably the thing I'm still most surprised by from this past offseason considering the cost was low enough he would have been cuttable right away with Cohen.
I don't know why Rojas had him pitching in a 1 run game last night. Loup saved his butt inducing the DP. But at least Rojas had a short leash on him. I don't have faith in Familia at this point in 1 run games in the 7th like that, but the Mets do need to start working guys like him and Barnes into 2 or 3 or 4 run games, or the other guys will be burned out.
The maddening thing with Familia is that it is almost always the walks, last night included. He had Segura 0-2 and gave up a chopper that barely got by the mound which is bad luck you can live with if you didn't already put a guy on base needlessly.
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we have no choice but to hope Familia is at a minimum adequate or better, but we all hope if he's not, with Cohen at the helm now we pivot and bring in some help (some way).
Bullpen is the area of the team with the least redundancy built in, but also maybe the most untested/unproven depth.
It's super early but Brad Hand seems to be picking up right where he's been the last few years and his FB velocity is actually up 1 mph. Passing on him on a 1 year deal (or even 2 year deal) is probably the thing I'm still most surprised by from this past offseason considering the cost was low enough he would have been cuttable right away with Cohen.
For the life of me, I don't understand reports that if the Cohen deal had been complete, the Mets would have put in a waiver claim for hand. Shit, if I am spending billions, I am telling the Wilpons to put in a damn waiver claim as a show of good faith.
Or is Portnoy still pissed at Cohen?
Exclusive: Another Mets scandal is on the way and the full story will be released tomorrow per sources 👀
The Mets have had a poor defense virtually the entire time he's pitched here and he's a ground ball pitcher.
How would you describe the hit he gave up yesterday?
For the life of me, I don't understand reports that if the Cohen deal had been complete, the Mets would have put in a waiver claim for hand. Shit, if I am spending billions, I am telling the Wilpons to put in a damn waiver claim as a show of good faith.
I can understand whatever legal red tape still existed a lot more than I can passing on him at virtually the same $ several months later. They got their mulligan and they elected not to take it for some reason.
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"organizational story" is dropping tomorrow and we should brace for it.
Sandy is aware of it.
Is it the NYT article that gidie posted? Nothing new.
Supposed to be something else on “organizational culture”. My guess is it is from the Wilpon era...Sandy himself sent out a memo/warning to all employees.