Mets Lineup
Brandon Nimmo (L) CF
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Dominic Smith (L) LF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Michael Conforto (L) RF
Jeff McNeil (L) 2B
J.D. Davis (R) 3B
James McCann (R) C
Marcus Stroman (R) P
Rockies Lineup
Raimel Tapia (L) LF
Ryan McMahon (L) 2B
Trevor Story (R) SS
Charlie Blackmon (L) RF
C.J. Cron (R) 1B
Garrett Hampson (R) CF
Josh Fuentes (R) 3B
Dom Nunez (L) C
Antonio Senzatela (R) P
Lets take this series and get the heck out of Colorado. At least the weather should be a bit warmer today... LGFM
58 pitches through 6 innings.
9 grounders, 7 flies, 2 K’s. Snappy game thus far.
Love to get a couple of runs.
At 77 pitches he absolutely deserves the 8th
his OBP is 372, very good sign considering he’s not even close to hitting yet
10.99
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nimmo looks awful, but Lindor in particular. Too early to be concerned but not what you want to see with 9.99 years left on his contract
his OBP is 372, very good sign considering he’s not even close to hitting yet
I’m more just frustrated with the Mets offense in general (we have to complain about something). Lindors defense is unreal though. Mets fans have become so used to below average SS defense that it’s such a relief to not have to sweat out every ground ball
Off to Chicago (after a scheduled off day, because Mets not allowed to play 3 days in a row)!
Bats will have to wake up at some point but our rotation is buying them some time.
Aggressive for sure and I wouldn't have called it from the dugout, but I don't hate that SB attempt.
McCann answered the bell though.
Conforto appears to be heating up.....I'd swap him and Dom in the lineup.
If Stroman can keep this up, and Carrasco and Lugo can return soon (plus Thor in June), they should be in great shape.
Should being the operative phrase, of course.
McCann had a wide variance that has so far swung towards the high side - his framing has graded well so far, he hits enough for a C, and he has solid traditional catcher D tools. The whole pitching staff seems a little more settled than they've been in recent years and I think he probably deserves some credit for that.
Walker has flashed a lot more ability than you'd expect from a guy being paid like replacement level.
Loup/May have flashed.
Pillar/Villar have looked like big leaguers when they've gotten time.
Obviously haven't seen Carrasco yet but this looks like it's going to be a real solid squad even as is. Carrasco (plus Lugo/Syndergaard) could really make it the clear alternative to the LAD. Those series in August could be a lot of fun.
Eric,
Again it's nitpicking but if he hit like this all-season he wouldn't be here very long. He's been a complete zero at the plate to this point and quite frankly likely cost them opening day.
FWIW his average exit velocity (86.6 MPH) would be tied for 132/162 if he had enough PA's
"Looks like a big leaguer" basically = hasn't looked at all like Ali Sanchez last year.
You say you are not nitpicking, but the original comment (and current comment) is not that he has been the 2nd best hitter on the team or in any way as good of a player as Dom/Alonso. It was that he has looked like a big leaguer.
In 14 at bats pretty much every number is meaningless but a triple slash is more meaningless than the his K rate or statcast numbers which actually tell you a little bit about his swings/contact not just outcomes.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2021&position=&team=121&min=1&sort=6&sortDir=desc - ( New Window )
"Looks like a big leaguer" basically = hasn't looked at all like Ali Sanchez last year.
Eric,
You're cherrypicking. Why is max exit velocity the key for Pillar but when it comes to McCann it's his average exit velocity? Because McCann's max exit velocity is only 31st percentile? Ali Sanchez is not a major leaguer but he's also not making 5 million. If our standard is "better than Ali Sanchez with the bat" then yeah, most players we see this season will be better (PS Sanchez had a higher average exit velocity last season than Pillar to this point) 87.1
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I can't profess to have seen every one of them of but his average exit velocity is pretty solid and only 1 k. Defensively/baserunning he's looked athletic and that's probably the most important thing given his main role is backup CFer.
Eric,
Again it's nitpicking but if he hit like this all-season he wouldn't be here very long. He's been a complete zero at the plate to this point and quite frankly likely cost them opening day.
he didn't cost them opening day Rojas did. Being a big leaguer does not mean the player should be hitting at the top of a lineup at the expense of better players for that role and playing ahead of one of the team's best players. He was signed to be a 4th OF'er and that's how he should be used.
You say you are not nitpicking, but the original comment (and current comment) is not that he has been the 2nd best hitter on the team or in any way as good of a player as Dom/Alonso. It was that he has looked like a big leaguer.
In 14 at bats pretty much every number is meaningless but a triple slash is more meaningless than the his K rate or statcast numbers which actually tell you a little bit about his swings/contact not just outcomes. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2021&position=&team=121&min=1&sort=6&sortDir=desc - ( New Window )
So you're belief is he's looked like a big leaguer while hitting .154 because he's hit the ball "okay" and yet he's only struck out 6.6% of his ab's, you are choosing to both look toward his future outcomes (ignoring his current numbers) and then also give him credit for positive ones? Why isn't that your take with someone like McCann with poor exit velocity to this point?
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and 3rd best max exit velocity recorded on contact. He hasn't gotten any hits (.154 babip) but he has not looked like a guy who doesn't have a chance at the plate.
"Looks like a big leaguer" basically = hasn't looked at all like Ali Sanchez last year.
Eric,
You're cherrypicking. Why is max exit velocity the key for Pillar but when it comes to McCann it's his average exit velocity? Because McCann's max exit velocity is only 31st percentile? Ali Sanchez is not a major leaguer but he's also not making 5 million. If our standard is "better than Ali Sanchez with the bat" then yeah, most players we see this season will be better (PS Sanchez had a higher average exit velocity last season than Pillar to this point) 87.1
"looks like a big leaguer" is the exact opposite of cherry picking.
Max exit velocity and average exit velocity are both useful stats - which is why I cited both for Pillar.
average exit velocity is the more useful because it's beyond 1 event - and re: McCann, who has had more at bats playing almost every day, his average exit velocity happens to be right in line with his exit velocity from 2020 + 2019 which as you know was a big question with him because the big question with him was whether the changes he made at the plate were real. So far so good even if his max EV on 24 events hasn't been great yet.
-Lugo has begun throwing off the slope but not yet scheduled to face hitters. So yeah, sounds like 3-4 weeks from now.
Exit velocity is actually extremely helpful even on April 19th, sample size when it comes to Pillar the sample size is simply too small. Exit velocity helps tell us who has been lucky/unlucky even more than BABIP.
So you're belief is he's looked like a big leaguer while hitting .154 because he's hit the ball "okay" and yet he's only struck out 6.6% of his ab's, you are choosing to both look toward his future outcomes (ignoring his current numbers) and then also give him credit for positive ones? Why isn't that your take with someone like McCann with poor exit velocity to this point?
McCann's average exit velocity right now is 90.5. (max 103)
In 2020 his average exit velocity was 90.5. (max 108)
In 2019 his average exit velocity was 90.1. (max 112)
Like Pillar his current hard hit rate is 50%+ and higher than his prior career average and his K rates and walk rates are fine.
As you know the big question with McCann is which version would he be going forward? The 19/20 version or the version prior to that in his career when he was in the mid to upper 80's and a below average offensive player.
McCann hasn't hit for power yet but I'm completely fine with how he has looked so far because it looks closer to the 19/20 versions we want than the pre-2019 version.
"xwOBAcon ( expected Weighted On Bse Average on contact): xwOBA is expected weighted On Base Average takes wOBA and adds in Statcast data — specifically, “exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed."
has McCann bottom 9% of the league. 2019 McCann''s xwOBAcon was .419, 2020 .429 and 2021.... .288. I'm not "worried" about him given 31 ab's but the underlying numbers have been poor beyond unlucky.
There's no comprehensive statistical deep dive worth doing after 2-3 weeks of the season - especially with the way the NYM schedule has been chopped up.
My post was simple - so far the first look at the new guys has be in line with expectations. Lindor looks like a franchise player (despite his stats), McCann looks like a professional 2 way catcher, and even though I wasn't a fan of the Villar + Pillar signings both have looked like competent depth.
"xwOBAcon ( expected Weighted On Bse Average on contact): xwOBA is expected weighted On Base Average takes wOBA and adds in Statcast data — specifically, “exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed."
has McCann bottom 9% of the league. 2019 McCann''s xwOBAcon was .419, 2020 .429 and 2021.... .288. I'm not "worried" about him given 31 ab's but the underlying numbers have been poor beyond unlucky.
Lindor is even lower at .283 and I'm not concerned with him either.
That's possibly/probably true, and if Almora played that way I'd say he's competent too.
Like I said, I wasn't a huge fan of any of the depth signings though I thought Pillar had the most upside of the 3. So far they look like competent depth - nothing more, nothing less.
The best thing I can say about Almora and Pillar right now is that Nimmo has played a good enough CF that I don't think we will need to use them that much.
Kike has also mostly played CF so far which is interesting. As we are talking depth signings that's still the guy I'd have most preferred to add over the combo of Almora/Pillar/Villar. He played 1 inning at SS so far so I'd imagine he'd have been ok playing 3b too.
McIlwain has serious contact issues, but is extremely athletic and perhaps Mets think he can progress if he is focusing only on Baseball
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Longenhagen mentions Alexander Ramirez as the Mets prospect he most wants to see this year and Brandon McIlwain as a deep sleeper. He didn't rank him in his Mets top 30 and he was undrafted so... but he is premium athlete.
McIlwain has serious contact issues, but is extremely athletic and perhaps Mets think he can progress if he is focusing only on Baseball
Considering he didn't rank him in his own top 30 (he still has Desmond Lindsay on there). I have to assume he's just going with a guy who absolute best case could be something because of his pure athletcism. The Mets obviously do not have 30 "legit" prospects.
Boston takes 2/3 from the weekend series. Jordan Yamamoto was good, Jesus Reyes and Tom Windle were not (combined for 9 walks, 9 runs allowed).
Johneshwy Fargas doubled home two runs in the 9th.
Crazy.