I don’t believe they put together this kind of stretch if he isn’t starting. His defense is just what this team needs. Trade Robinson and look to get Noel’s eventual replacement through the draft.
yeah was just going to say - quite a line for Noel:
29 minutes, plus 24. 8 points, 8 bounds, 3 assists. 5 blocks and 4 steals! Now that's a line for a C.
I would trade Mitch this off season and sign Noel to a modest deal.
He has been around the block and think he found a home here. I think the Knicks get a hometown deal.
Same with Rose and Taj.
looked good at the end of the game but I thought he played like crap for most of it. Not only did he have several defensive lapses, but even on offense it seemed like made the wrong play/decision multiple times.
Enzo-- I agree, but I think that's a sign of the high standard we hold RJ to now. I think if this was a year ago, any night RJ had gone 22/7/6 we would be saying it's a positive night for him. But you're right-- this was not his best game, but he's 20 years old and will still have lapses like that at times-- it's awesome to see how he just visibly looks more comfortable w/ the ball in his hands now compared to last year.
probability % calculators and see the Knicks have a 98% or 97% chance of making the playoffs (which doesn't even include the play-in, they mean being in the top 8 AFTER the play-in and all is said and done-- one site said 97% the other said 98%).
The only one disrespecting them is ESPN, which has the playoffs odds at 81% for the Knicks. But that's nothing new. I found an ESPN article from a month ago at the end of March that only have the Knicks a 26% chance of making the top 8, and only a 6% chance of avoiding the play-in. This was despite the fact the Knicks had the 4th best record in the East at the time of the article! They just wrote "Knicks are expected to fall in the standings" with no real solid explanation why. AND NOW they're the only ones giving the Knicks a relatively low (81%, I said "relatively") chance of making the playoffs. To the no-nothings over at ESPN: KEEP DOUBTING US.
SInce it's multiple links I've pasted them in the body of my message... the link I have actually linked is the month-old ESPN article that now looks embarrassingly wrong (not that any of us picked the Knicks to do this this year but come on by a month ago we at least knew they were pretty good).
By my calculation the 97% does make sense... I'll explain:
I put the Knicks over/under finish at 4-5.
So, given that, to land worse than the 6 seed ALL the following would need to happen:
HEAT: 5-4 or better (50% chance).
CELTICS: 5-4 or better, OR 6-3 or better IF they lose to the Knicks and hence lose the tiebreaker (50% chance).
HAWKS: 4-5 or better (50% chance).
So for all 3 to happen the chances are about 12.5% that the Knicks land in the play-in. (i.e. 50%^3)
Then comes the play-in... give the Knicks a 50% chance to lose the 1st game, then if they do let's say a 50% chance to lose the 2nd game. 12.5% * 50% * 50% = about 3%.
Hence that's a 3% chance they miss the playoffs (97% chance they are in the playoffs).
for the Knicks to land in the play in, over the final 9 games all of the following would have to happen:
-Heat finish at least 2 games better than the Knicks.
-Celtics finish at least 2 games better than the Knicks (or 3 if the Knicks beat them in the finale).
-Hawks finish at least 2 games better than the Knicks.
I think 50/50 is a reasonable estimate for each of those scenarios, given the Knicks' more difficult schedule. Hence the chance they have to play the play-in is 50%^3 = 12.5%. From there the math is the same.
(I really botched the "Heat/Celtics/Hawks" part in my 11:35 PM post sorry guys lol ignore that)
To sum it up more succinctly, I basically assigned a 50% chance to each of these 5 things right now:
-Heat finish ahead of the Knicks in the standings
-Celtics finish ahead of the Knicks in the standings
-Hawks finish ahead of the Knicks in the standings
-Knicks lose the 1st play-in game (if there is one)
-Knicks lose the 2nd play-in game (if there is one)
All 5 things would have to result in the Knicks being out of the playoffs, so 50%^5 = 3%
Defense was BACK! RJ on the boards is getting even better. He is becoming so aggressive....love him proving me wrong.
I will say this, and it really concerns me for the playoffs, JR goes through about a 2-4 minute stretch where he goes full retard with the ball. I love the guy, but the spinning into the lane, the milking the clock down to 3 and dumping off to Noel on the wing has got to be reigned in.
Otherwise, great win. Nice sized break before what should be a gimme in Houston. Tough game in Memphis, but hopefully Burks adds to our firepower and we can take that one before we get ass-fucked by the West's elite.
Defense was BACK! RJ on the boards is getting even better. He is becoming so aggressive....love him proving me wrong.
I will say this, and it really concerns me for the playoffs, JR goes through about a 2-4 minute stretch where he goes full retard with the ball. I love the guy, but the spinning into the lane, the milking the clock down to 3 and dumping off to Noel on the wing has got to be reigned in.
Otherwise, great win. Nice sized break before what should be a gimme in Houston. Tough game in Memphis, but hopefully Burks adds to our firepower and we can take that one before we get ass-fucked by the West's elite.
Good point about Randle. I haven't paid attention to this too much: what % of the time is he running the offense as a point-forward when Payton is the 1 vs. when Rose is the 1 vs. when Quickley is the 1? I like Randle handling the point but I think it's too much pressure to expect him to do it so often and I wonder if this leads to the lapses you're referring to. Hopefully we'll see less of that when the Knicks get another true PG to take Payton's minutes, and also when they add a talented scoring Wing to flank JR and RJ and take some scoring pressure off of them.
Defense was BACK! RJ on the boards is getting even better. He is becoming so aggressive....love him proving me wrong.
I will say this, and it really concerns me for the playoffs, JR goes through about a 2-4 minute stretch where he goes full retard with the ball. I love the guy, but the spinning into the lane, the milking the clock down to 3 and dumping off to Noel on the wing has got to be reigned in.
Otherwise, great win. Nice sized break before what should be a gimme in Houston. Tough game in Memphis, but hopefully Burks adds to our firepower and we can take that one before we get ass-fucked by the West's elite.
Good point about Randle. I haven't paid attention to this too much: what % of the time is he running the offense as a point-forward when Payton is the 1 vs. when Rose is the 1 vs. when Quickley is the 1? I like Randle handling the point but I think it's too much pressure to expect him to do it so often and I wonder if this leads to the lapses you're referring to. Hopefully we'll see less of that when the Knicks get another true PG to take Payton's minutes, and also when they add a talented scoring Wing to flank JR and RJ and take some scoring pressure off of them.
I seem to remember it was when Rose was in the game. Almost like he feels the need to MAKE himself a part of the O. Good question. It may have to do with he knows his schedule of time on the bench and tries to jam in some plays before that happens. Something to keep an eye on. Especially if Rose and IQ come into the game together which doesnt ALWAYS happen.
but Obi starting to be a serviceable rotation player, but i thought you only get better playing 30 minutes a night?
Quickley looks to have surpassed the rookie wall, he goes on these 10 to 12 point spurts out of nowhere, will be huge in the playoffs..
Derrick Rose didnt have his best game tonight but he is going to be huge in the playoffs down the stretch of games, you could see his calming factor at the end of games.
RJ making a 3 from dribble-and-shoot, rather than catch-and shoot. (link) Something like 95% of his threes have been catch and shoot, and his volume of scoring will spike if he can do it the other way. Him and Quickly both being able to play dribble-and-shoot from the 3 would be tough for teams to keep up with. Link - ( New Window )
RJ making a 3 from dribble-and-shoot, rather than catch-and shoot. (link) Something like 95% of his threes have been catch and shoot, and his volume of scoring will spike if he can do it the other way. Him and Quickly both being able to play dribble-and-shoot from the 3 would be tough for teams to keep up with. Link - ( New Window )
There have been a bunch of interviews with his shot coach who he worked with for like a month this offseason and they said they sort of broke him down and reworked the shot from the ground up.
He said over the course of the next offseason and probably the following couple, they will add other types of shots to his game, but they focused on his form and catch and shoot this offseason.
I just love that RJ puts in the work. If this season is any indication, RJ's game will come along because he's dedicated to the improvement.
if at all, including dribble-and-shoot, stop-and-pop, and Randle-like 12-footer from the side.
It is pretty dazzling to consider that the has considerably more offensive game to add. In addition, of course, from the current age of 20, he will just continue to get stronger. He is going to ultimately spend hours at the foul line shooting "and ones" after making muscle drives that almost no one else at the 2-3 can. And adding to his already-growing rebounding prowess. And his vison will grow, allowing him to be a really good secondary playmaker.
See the linked NY Post article, btw, entitled
Quote:
RJ Barrett’s rise from Knicks draft doubts to budding All-Star
"When the Knicks drafted Barrett, they also factored in having a strong father in Rowan Barrett who had guided his son through his basketball career. Rowan weaved his own accomplished career as a solid St. John’s swingman who played overseas and for Team Canada. Rowan is now GM of Team Canada."
And his godfather is Steve Nash (who I admire a lot even though he's Nets these days).
Your father is ex-St John's and GM of Team Canada, and your godfather is Steve Nash. Basketball in the DNA or what?
Quote:
I don’t believe they put together this kind of stretch if he isn’t starting. His defense is just what this team needs. Trade Robinson and look to get Noel’s eventual replacement through the draft.
yeah was just going to say - quite a line for Noel:
29 minutes, plus 24. 8 points, 8 bounds, 3 assists. 5 blocks and 4 steals! Now that's a line for a C.
I would trade Mitch this off season and sign Noel to a modest deal.
He has been around the block and think he found a home here. I think the Knicks get a hometown deal.
Same with Rose and Taj.
Enzo-- I agree, but I think that's a sign of the high standard we hold RJ to now. I think if this was a year ago, any night RJ had gone 22/7/6 we would be saying it's a positive night for him. But you're right-- this was not his best game, but he's 20 years old and will still have lapses like that at times-- it's awesome to see how he just visibly looks more comfortable w/ the ball in his hands now compared to last year.
The only one disrespecting them is ESPN, which has the playoffs odds at 81% for the Knicks. But that's nothing new. I found an ESPN article from a month ago at the end of March that only have the Knicks a 26% chance of making the top 8, and only a 6% chance of avoiding the play-in. This was despite the fact the Knicks had the 4th best record in the East at the time of the article! They just wrote "Knicks are expected to fall in the standings" with no real solid explanation why. AND NOW they're the only ones giving the Knicks a relatively low (81%, I said "relatively") chance of making the playoffs. To the no-nothings over at ESPN: KEEP DOUBTING US.
SInce it's multiple links I've pasted them in the body of my message... the link I have actually linked is the month-old ESPN article that now looks embarrassingly wrong (not that any of us picked the Knicks to do this this year but come on by a month ago we at least knew they were pretty good).
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds
ESPN March 29th doubting of the Knicks - ( New Window )
I put the Knicks over/under finish at 4-5.
So, given that, to land worse than the 6 seed ALL the following would need to happen:
HEAT: 5-4 or better (50% chance).
CELTICS: 5-4 or better, OR 6-3 or better IF they lose to the Knicks and hence lose the tiebreaker (50% chance).
HAWKS: 4-5 or better (50% chance).
So for all 3 to happen the chances are about 12.5% that the Knicks land in the play-in. (i.e. 50%^3)
Then comes the play-in... give the Knicks a 50% chance to lose the 1st game, then if they do let's say a 50% chance to lose the 2nd game. 12.5% * 50% * 50% = about 3%.
Hence that's a 3% chance they miss the playoffs (97% chance they are in the playoffs).
I think it's better said like this:
for the Knicks to land in the play in, over the final 9 games all of the following would have to happen:
-Heat finish at least 2 games better than the Knicks.
-Celtics finish at least 2 games better than the Knicks (or 3 if the Knicks beat them in the finale).
-Hawks finish at least 2 games better than the Knicks.
I think 50/50 is a reasonable estimate for each of those scenarios, given the Knicks' more difficult schedule. Hence the chance they have to play the play-in is 50%^3 = 12.5%. From there the math is the same.
To sum it up more succinctly, I basically assigned a 50% chance to each of these 5 things right now:
-Heat finish ahead of the Knicks in the standings
-Celtics finish ahead of the Knicks in the standings
-Hawks finish ahead of the Knicks in the standings
-Knicks lose the 1st play-in game (if there is one)
-Knicks lose the 2nd play-in game (if there is one)
All 5 things would have to result in the Knicks being out of the playoffs, so 50%^5 = 3%
I will say this, and it really concerns me for the playoffs, JR goes through about a 2-4 minute stretch where he goes full retard with the ball. I love the guy, but the spinning into the lane, the milking the clock down to 3 and dumping off to Noel on the wing has got to be reigned in.
Otherwise, great win. Nice sized break before what should be a gimme in Houston. Tough game in Memphis, but hopefully Burks adds to our firepower and we can take that one before we get ass-fucked by the West's elite.
I will say this, and it really concerns me for the playoffs, JR goes through about a 2-4 minute stretch where he goes full retard with the ball. I love the guy, but the spinning into the lane, the milking the clock down to 3 and dumping off to Noel on the wing has got to be reigned in.
Otherwise, great win. Nice sized break before what should be a gimme in Houston. Tough game in Memphis, but hopefully Burks adds to our firepower and we can take that one before we get ass-fucked by the West's elite.
Good point about Randle. I haven't paid attention to this too much: what % of the time is he running the offense as a point-forward when Payton is the 1 vs. when Rose is the 1 vs. when Quickley is the 1? I like Randle handling the point but I think it's too much pressure to expect him to do it so often and I wonder if this leads to the lapses you're referring to. Hopefully we'll see less of that when the Knicks get another true PG to take Payton's minutes, and also when they add a talented scoring Wing to flank JR and RJ and take some scoring pressure off of them.
Quote:
Defense was BACK! RJ on the boards is getting even better. He is becoming so aggressive....love him proving me wrong.
I will say this, and it really concerns me for the playoffs, JR goes through about a 2-4 minute stretch where he goes full retard with the ball. I love the guy, but the spinning into the lane, the milking the clock down to 3 and dumping off to Noel on the wing has got to be reigned in.
Otherwise, great win. Nice sized break before what should be a gimme in Houston. Tough game in Memphis, but hopefully Burks adds to our firepower and we can take that one before we get ass-fucked by the West's elite.
Good point about Randle. I haven't paid attention to this too much: what % of the time is he running the offense as a point-forward when Payton is the 1 vs. when Rose is the 1 vs. when Quickley is the 1? I like Randle handling the point but I think it's too much pressure to expect him to do it so often and I wonder if this leads to the lapses you're referring to. Hopefully we'll see less of that when the Knicks get another true PG to take Payton's minutes, and also when they add a talented scoring Wing to flank JR and RJ and take some scoring pressure off of them.
I seem to remember it was when Rose was in the game. Almost like he feels the need to MAKE himself a part of the O. Good question. It may have to do with he knows his schedule of time on the bench and tries to jam in some plays before that happens. Something to keep an eye on. Especially if Rose and IQ come into the game together which doesnt ALWAYS happen.
Quickley looks to have surpassed the rookie wall, he goes on these 10 to 12 point spurts out of nowhere, will be huge in the playoffs..
Derrick Rose didnt have his best game tonight but he is going to be huge in the playoffs down the stretch of games, you could see his calming factor at the end of games.
Weirdly brainless minutes for RJ, but that 3PT shot is just so confident now.
RJ making a 3 from dribble-and-shoot, rather than catch-and shoot. (link) Something like 95% of his threes have been catch and shoot, and his volume of scoring will spike if he can do it the other way. Him and Quickly both being able to play dribble-and-shoot from the 3 would be tough for teams to keep up with.
Link - ( New Window )
RJ making a 3 from dribble-and-shoot, rather than catch-and shoot. (link) Something like 95% of his threes have been catch and shoot, and his volume of scoring will spike if he can do it the other way. Him and Quickly both being able to play dribble-and-shoot from the 3 would be tough for teams to keep up with. Link - ( New Window )
There have been a bunch of interviews with his shot coach who he worked with for like a month this offseason and they said they sort of broke him down and reworked the shot from the ground up.
He said over the course of the next offseason and probably the following couple, they will add other types of shots to his game, but they focused on his form and catch and shoot this offseason.
I just love that RJ puts in the work. If this season is any indication, RJ's game will come along because he's dedicated to the improvement.
It is pretty dazzling to consider that the has considerably more offensive game to add. In addition, of course, from the current age of 20, he will just continue to get stronger. He is going to ultimately spend hours at the foul line shooting "and ones" after making muscle drives that almost no one else at the 2-3 can. And adding to his already-growing rebounding prowess. And his vison will grow, allowing him to be a really good secondary playmaker.
See the linked NY Post article, btw, entitled
RJ Barrett’s rise from Knicks draft doubts to budding All-Star
It is also going to be intriguing,
Link - ( New Window )
And his godfather is Steve Nash (who I admire a lot even though he's Nets these days).
Your father is ex-St John's and GM of Team Canada, and your godfather is Steve Nash. Basketball in the DNA or what?