I like what the Giants received, but maybe the trade is not so one-sided if we use a standard Draft Value Chart and conventional scoring.
The Giants surrendered the 11th pick -- that's 1,250 points.
For this Draft the Giants received the 20th and 164th selections -- that's 876 points (i.e., 850 + 26).
As for the the picks next season, several BBIers mentioned that da Bears will struggle quite a lot, thus the Giants will get a Top 10 pick. But we just don't know for sure, so the safe assumption is to place the Bears first round pick right in the middle, say #16. And same with their fourth round pick, say around #112.
So, that gives the Giants another 1,070 points (i.e., 1,000 + 70).
But wait a minute!
The convention is that any future pick from next season must be valued at one round later. So, the Bears' 16th pick should be scored as the 48th pick (430 points) and the 112th pick should be scored as the 144th pick (34 points).
So, to summarize -- Giants surrender 1,250 points and receive 1,340 points in return:
2021: #20 (850 points)
2021: #164 (26 points)
2022: #16 devalued one round to #48 (430 points)
2022: #112 devalued one round to #144 (34 points)
From this perspective, the trade looks pretty even!
Especially since it is likely the Bears will miss the playoffs and picking possibly in the top 10 or even in the Top 5.
Agree where the Bears end up will have an huge impact on the draft. If they have a top 10 pick this is worth it and If late 1st round less so.
I pull the trigger as GM though
Instead, Gettlemen/Abrams settled down to plan B, made some calls and lengthened our 2021 draft to 7 picks and added two (including a first rounder) next year.
When you can take rotten apples and make excellent apple sauce.....that is making the best of a bad situation.
Then take a look at early reports that say 2022 draft is shaping up to be one of the deepest drafts in a long time. Things can change but, if true this bodes very well for having the additional draft capital.
I think this was a sweet deal and we still got a bigtime playmaker.
Instead, Gettlemen/Abrams settled down to plan B, made some calls and lengthened our 2021 draft to 7 picks and added two (including a first rounder) next year.
When you can take rotten apples and make excellent apple sauce.....that is making the best of a bad situation.
I'm with you on this 100000%!
You make several important points.
We're all rooting for 0-17!
Also, the Giants got back the 5th this year which they gave up for Leonard Williams - I love getting back in the 5th round. Also, that 4th round pick next year is valuable as well.
It was a very smart trade and sets up the Giants very nicely in the future.
If Toney is what Boylhart says and not what Sy says this is a great day for the Giants.
maximize value in the draft is the key....as its a net sum game.....
talent is close....a slightly better player here and there...makes a ton of difference.
Smith vs Toney will be a fun comparison for many years to come. My Eagles fans.....know, Toney will end up as a better player. LOL
Also, the Giants got back the 5th this year which they gave up for Leonard Williams - I love getting back in the 5th round. Also, that 4th round pick next year is valuable as well.
It was a very smart trade and sets up the Giants very nicely in the future.
I agree. The Giants were essentially stuck in neutral after DeVonta Smith was taken! That trade back with Chicago put the Giants into high gear, especially next Draft!
If Toney is what Boylhart says and not what Sy says this is a great day for the Giants.
Amen to that!
maximize value in the draft is the key....as its a net sum game.....
talent is close....a slightly better player here and there...makes a ton of difference.
Smith vs Toney will be a fun comparison for many years to come. My Eagles fans.....know, Toney will end up as a better player. LOL
I'm with you 100%. The Giants were hanging on a precipice when DeVonta Smith was picked. That trade back with da Bears put us on very solid footing!
I think many of us feel the exact same way. But the Giants made the best of a bad situation with that trade!
Football is such a volatile sport. The bears are no lock to be good. One or two injuries with that schedule and we could be landing a big time pick. Well worth the risk.
one hit away......
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
If gives the Giants massive flexibility. 1st round picks have significant value. A lot of times they don’t pan out, but it doesn’t change the value they represent before the pick is made.
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
I mean if the "Bears shit the bed completely..." not the Browns
Quote:
simple, the 4th round pick in 2022 and the 5th round pick in 2021 are basically lottery tickets that got tossed around into draft maneuvering more than they actually result in a player being drafted in that spot and "panning out"
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
If gives the Giants massive flexibility. 1st round picks have significant value. A lot of times they don’t pan out, but it doesn’t change the value they represent before the pick is made.
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
depends where in the first it is.
if the Giants feel they need a QB in the 2022 draft there is at least a decent chance they wind up in a draft spot to take the QB themselves. but yes, a 2nd first could help them move up to get one.
it still doesn't change that the evaluation of the trade is tied to where the Bears pick winds up.
Agree where the Bears end up will have an huge impact on the draft. If they have a top 10 pick this is worth it and If late 1st round less so.
I pull the trigger as GM though
Completely agree. 1st round picks are much riskier this year than past. I'm personally shocked that so many players that sat out a year (I don't blame the players) went in the first, especially Trey Lance. Training/working out isn't the same as live reps and while I think he'll be a good one ultimately, I fully expect even Sewell to struggle early on next season.
Hopefully next years draft turns out to be as deep as expected.
Here is what Chad Reuter thinks.
Grade
A+
New York Giants
Draft pick
Florida WR Kadarius Toney (No. 20 overall)
Analysis: I projected the Bears-Giants deal in my first-round trades article a few weeks ago, despite the Giants’ apparent reticence against moving down early in the draft. Getting a first- and fourth-rounder in 2022, plus a fifth-rounder this year, to move down nine spots wasn’t much of a decision for GM Dave Gettleman.
Toney’s quickness off the line of scrimmage is fantastic, and he looked like a first-rounder from the get-go during the 2020 season. Daniel Jones should find the former Gator to be a great slot target, combining with free agent acquisitions Kenny Golladay and John Ross to spice up the Giants' passing attack. Although Toney had a couple drops during Senior Bowl week, he was reliable during his Florida career, so I don’t believe that is an issue. And if you watched those practices closely, Toney separated from defenders in Mobile, Alabama, in a way that most receivers don’t.
The Giants are trying to win in 2021 and fi they drafted Smith- they would've probably been a better football team.
The object of the game is to win when you are trying to win and the Giants are trying to win. Who is is better for Jones- Smith or Toney? Smith.
Overall I'm fine with the trade. But aren't most of you sick and tried of watching losing football? Giving up the better player doesn't make this team better.
The discounting of future picks is based on the uncertainty of the future draft. If you believe the Bears with a rookie quarterback will struggle, as do I, there is a very good chance we will end up with two top fifteen picks next year. Which would make this trade sensational, assuming the Giants break this woeful habit of reaching for need... Which, to be clear, could not be less clear.
Are they really that much of a trainwreck?
I don't know if a full round is the accurate measure by which to discount a pick a year out, but, contrary I think to FMiC's point, if you discount to present value, there must be a reduction in the present value of a #1 and #4 in 2022. I just hope we parlay the 5 into a trade up to get someone the Giants' board dictates they must have.
The 2022 draft is going to be loaded. There are only about 750 players in this draft instead of the usual about 2000. I think that the #1 next year from the Bears will be more valuable than a typical draft year.
WTF kind of logic is this?
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
I happen to watch these situations very closely and the QB crop for '22 is very uninspiring outside of Sam Howell (strong comp to Mayfield). Rattler could be interesting for OU. But that's about it for now...
So it's imperative that Jones blossoms now...
There will be QB’s who emerge this upcoming season. I have no doubts about that.
Especially since it is likely the Bears will miss the playoffs and picking possibly in the top 10 or even in the Top 5.
Agreed that discounting next year’s picks by a full round is excessive. As a thought experiment, wouldn’t a rational GM trade away their 2nd round pick every single year and get two 1st rounders consistently? It’s a simple idea but hasn’t been put into practice and I think the reason is that the NFL market is not a full round discount per year, it’s less than that, which makes that hypothetical trade away your 2nd approach much less attractive.
Disagree about the Bears - they are a decent middle of the pack team. Their QBing may improve vs last year and there’s a lot of talent on that defense.
It gives up options: if Daniel Jones does not elevate his game, we could package the two firsts to move up or maybe even add a 2023 first to go after a name quarterback like DeShaun Watson. Problem with Rodgers is he's ageing now.
Are they really that much of a trainwreck?
I agree here, the NFL is hard to predict. I am expecting a pick around where the Giants just picked maybe seven to 11 to 13
Quote:
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
I happen to watch these situations very closely and the QB crop for '22 is very uninspiring outside of Sam Howell (strong comp to Mayfield). Rattler could be interesting for OU. But that's about it for now...
So it's imperative that Jones blossoms now...
I’ve been saying all winter and spring next year’s qb crop isn’t very good..gotta hope someone comes out of nowhere like Burrow 2 years ago, one guy I have my eyes on will be JT Daniels at Georgia...
1. I don't think you can drop the pick a full round.
2. The Bears are a team with a lower floor next year. Even if they're actually a good team next year, I think we took an excellent risk there. It's not like we took the Rams or Chiefs 2022 first round pick.
3. I think picks this year are marginally devalued because of COVID - you have less information than usual. And it sounds like next year's draft class is going to be really good.
People thought Jake Fromm was a top ten lock in 2019 and worth waiting for in 2020.
Blanket statements that the upcoming QB field is weak is not fair imo. None of us know. So much changes in a year.
Probably a round 2 guy...bit of a reach. But can make plays for certain.
There will be QB’s who emerge this upcoming season. I have no doubts about that.
I can only tell you where it stands now and what I've watched. I just don't see a solid pipeline. Based on the ages, 2023 looks much better.
BTW, Kyler Murray was NOT a surprise. He was very well known but his size was the concern and there was this little issue known as baseball (he was drafted in the first round by the A's).
Quote:
I don’t buy that. No one had Burrow projected as the top pick a year prior. Same with Zach Wilson this year. Even Kyler Murray in 2019.
There will be QB’s who emerge this upcoming season. I have no doubts about that.
I can only tell you where it stands now and what I've watched. I just don't see a solid pipeline. Based on the ages, 2023 looks much better.
BTW, Kyler Murray was NOT a surprise. He was very well known but his size was the concern and there was this little issue known as baseball (he was drafted in the first round by the A's).
I don't buy it either. There hasn't been a QB born yet that you would not prefer over Daniel Jones. So, there is no question that you will be beating the drum for someone next year.
Quote:
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
I happen to watch these situations very closely and the QB crop for '22 is very uninspiring outside of Sam Howell (strong comp to Mayfield). Rattler could be interesting for OU. But that's about it for now...
So it's imperative that Jones blossoms now...
The proverbial fly in the ointment..Don’t you get tired? How does “A” stand you? :)
Other than JT Daniels from Georgia of course...
Either way, it was a good trade for Blue. They still got a very promising WR out of it, and add 3 picks. An extra first? Sign me up. While it is a little frustrating as a fan to have to wait a year to realize the benefit, we should be in a really nice spot this time next year.
This trade down was golden for the Jints
I am not going to get too excited about the #1 pick. It is what it is - an extra chip in the game.
Still a good move since there really wasn’t another player of interest to the Giants available at #11.
Toney is really very close to Smith on the field. More versatile and can be a “pick your spot” weapon. Putting him into the slot in place of Shepard mid-game can really impact the defense. Watch out! Screens, sweeps, slants. And if they go 4-wide, I would rather see him than Engram or Shepard.
While the chart says they aren’t worth as much, you need to look at the reasons for that. One of the advantages of having stability in FO and I’m glad we finally took advantage of it.
@DDuggan21
·
12h
In 2019, the Broncos traded the 10th pick to the Steelers for the 20th pick, a second-round pick and a 2020 third-round pick.
Giants getting a first to go from 11 to 20 is a huge score, especially with Chicago potentially starting a rookie QB this season.
Agree where the Bears end up will have an huge impact on the draft. If they have a top 10 pick this is worth it and If late 1st round less so.
I pull the trigger as GM though
Even if the Bears are somehow drafting 32nd, this trade is worth it.
AND a 1st next year, so even if the Bears win the SB, we have our pick and the 32. And one of the coaches RECRUITED our 1st rder.
Welcome to 21st Century Sports management :
NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS!!
Quote:
talk of this being a top 5 pick?
Are they really that much of a trainwreck?
I agree here, the NFL is hard to predict. I am expecting a pick around where the Giants just picked maybe seven to 11 to 13
Even if they aren't a train wreck, their schedule is pretty brutal.
Quote:
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
I happen to watch these situations very closely and the QB crop for '22 is very uninspiring outside of Sam Howell (strong comp to Mayfield). Rattler could be interesting for OU. But that's about it for now...
So it's imperative that Jones blossoms now...
How bout the QB from USC, Slovis? He too is supposed to be a very good QB. Another year of college ball and they may have some exceptional years. Time will tell. Granted there’s not another Lawrence next year, but non-the-less still some very nice prospects.
Other than JT Daniels from Georgia of course...
It's interesting in that most of the guys are around 6'-6'2". Not really big guys.
Definitely Sam Howell for me. He's been tremendous since he got to Chapel Hill. Very much in the Baker Mayfield mold without the brashness.
Spencer Rattler for OU is a very talented thrower of the football. Was highly recruited. He just needs to marry the talent with a full season of production. But he looks small to me.
I did catch a few parts of Cincinnati games and Dez Ridder looked like a very capable dual threat. Seemed like he had a decent arm, but he could make plays off schedule.
The Slovis kid with USC is interesting, but 2020 wasn't a banner year for the Pac12 with Covid. So we need to see a full season for him, too.
After that, I really need don't have a great feel for anyone...
How bout the QB from USC, Slovis? He too is supposed to be a very good QB. Another year of college ball and they may have some exceptional years. Time will tell. Granted there’s not another Lawrence next year, but non-the-less still some very nice prospects.
Yeah, he was pretty good as a freshman in '19. But like I just said, the Pac12 didn't play a lot in '20. And I didn't see many of their games. I did see some part of the UCLA game and Slovis was slinging it around pretty good. But UCLA still is trying to grow with more talent under Kelly...
Quote:
In comment 15244355 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
talk of this being a top 5 pick?
Are they really that much of a trainwreck?
I agree here, the NFL is hard to predict. I am expecting a pick around where the Giants just picked maybe seven to 11 to 13
Even if they aren't a train wreck, their schedule is pretty brutal.
Yeah on paper that road schedule looks tough. Quite tough.
I happen to watch these situations very closely and the QB crop for '22 is very uninspiring outside of Sam Howell (strong comp to Mayfield). Rattler could be interesting for OU. But that's about it for now...
So it's imperative that Jones blossoms now...
The proverbial fly in the ointment..Don’t you get tired? How does “A” stand you? :)
What is controversial about this?
My wife is a saint. She kept waiting for the Giants to draft Paye to see if I would actually Elway the remote against the wall... ;)
Truly competent move by Giants and best draft day trade I can ever remember. The only potential fly in the ointment is passing on Micah Parsons and allowing him to be a Cowboy. Let's hope Giants instincts are proven correct or posterity will not be kind...
Quote:
In comment 15244320 Sean said:
Quote:
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
I happen to watch these situations very closely and the QB crop for '22 is very uninspiring outside of Sam Howell (strong comp to Mayfield). Rattler could be interesting for OU. But that's about it for now...
So it's imperative that Jones blossoms now...
I’ve been saying all winter and spring next year’s qb crop isn’t very good..gotta hope someone comes out of nowhere like Burrow 2 years ago, one guy I have my eyes on will be JT Daniels at Georgia...
People say this one year prior to many drafts and then things change dramatically. It's WAY too soon to be saying anything. Different sport, but I remember one year prior to the NBA Zion draft people had RJ Barrett as the #1 pick. ONe year later he went behind Zion (and Morant) who was a generational talent.
One year prior to the Darnold draft he was the consensus #1 QB and player. One year later, he was overdrafted at 3.
It's way too soon to be saying anything about the 2022 draft, both good or bad.
He didn't rape anyone, and he didn't assault anyone. And, of course, neither BBIers nor Toney's critics in the press actually got to interview Toney, while the Giants did. There is thus at least an off chance that, in the three years since those issues and with a massive payday and opportunity in front of him, Toney might accept leadership and coaching that were unavailable while starting out in college. There are character issues that disturb me--I would never have signed Christian Peter, for example. These aren't those types, especially with the time lag in between.
As far as drops--one for the entire 2020 season. The kid makes hard, hard cuts in his routes, and with the ball. Jones will love that. I expect to see some double moves that have defenders sitting on their asses. Yes, he still needs to work on route-running. So what? Getting a quality kr/pr is a nice bonus. He has the physicality to survive some of that. I have visions of him taking a punt, breaking to the side, and finding a lane. A Dave Megget-type who isn't a thug.
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
I don’t agree at all. Precedence has shown that even just the 1 is more than we could have hoped in that scenario. Even if that pick is #25 it’s better than what Denver got from Pittsburgh. Add in that our targets were gone and we got what we think is a playmaker, I really couldn’t have asked for more.
Quote:
simple, the 4th round pick in 2022 and the 5th round pick in 2021 are basically lottery tickets that got tossed around into draft maneuvering more than they actually result in a player being drafted in that spot and "panning out"
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
I don’t agree at all. Precedence has shown that even just the 1 is more than we could have hoped in that scenario. Even if that pick is #25 it’s better than what Denver got from Pittsburgh. Add in that our targets were gone and we got what we think is a playmaker, I really couldn’t have asked for more.
I don't agree with his either. Unless the Bears win the SB and the pick is 32 even then that is very good value for the trade. Anytime you can get a future first for dropping 9 spots outside the top 10, you do it. The trade value chart drops future picks because they are less valuable to regimes because they may not be there next year. Judge will be here, and I think Getty is probably sticking around for one more year as long as we make playoffs.
Quote:
simple, the 4th round pick in 2022 and the 5th round pick in 2021 are basically lottery tickets that got tossed around into draft maneuvering more than they actually result in a player being drafted in that spot and "panning out"
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
I don’t agree at all. Precedence has shown that even just the 1 is more than we could have hoped in that scenario. Even if that pick is #25 it’s better than what Denver got from Pittsburgh. Add in that our targets were gone and we got what we think is a playmaker, I really couldn’t have asked for more.
because you couldn't have asked for more doesn't make it a great trade.
in the thread I had last week or earlier in the week "the argument against a trade down" the only way I said trading down in the 1st makes sense is if you get next year's first.
So, I'm not saying it's a bad trade at all for the Giants.
but what I am saying is statistically and historically speaking there is a difference in the chances the player has to become successful based on where they are picked - the earlier the better obviously.
so how well the Giants did DOES matter where the Bears pick winds up if you look at it analytically.
of course it's fine to have the opinion that "another 1st wherever it falls makes a 9 spot drop in the 1st worth it" and that's obviously a fair opinion.
Mine is - the trade is better the earlier the Bears pick and if the Bears pick in the late teens/twenties it's an ok trade.
If you believe the Giants lost out on their top tier and moved to tier 2, and among tier 2 was Tony, how does that change things? Most scouts also think this was among the biggest crap shoot drafts due to Covid - does that change things for you?
I understand the principle of your stance but I don’t agree that you can apply it equally year to year.
Quote:
first round picks shouldn't be devalued by a round.
Especially since it is likely the Bears will miss the playoffs and picking possibly in the top 10 or even in the Top 5.
Agreed that discounting next year’s picks by a full round is excessive. As a thought experiment, wouldn’t a rational GM trade away their 2nd round pick every single year and get two 1st rounders consistently? It’s a simple idea but hasn’t been put into practice and I think the reason is that the NFL market is not a full round discount per year, it’s less than that, which makes that hypothetical trade away your 2nd approach much less attractive.
Disagree about the Bears - they are a decent middle of the pack team. Their QBing may improve vs last year and there’s a lot of talent on that defense.
The Giants are trying to win in 2021 and fi they drafted Smith- they would've probably been a better football team.
The object of the game is to win when you are trying to win and the Giants are trying to win. Who is is better for Jones- Smith or Toney? Smith.
Overall I'm fine with the trade. But aren't most of you sick and tried of watching losing football? Giving up the better player doesn't make this team better.
That's horseshit, quite honestly.
The coach's job, and the players' jobs, is to win every game in front of them, one by one.
But the front office - if they're any good - needs to take a longer term view, and that includes balancing future assets with current opportunity.
The cheapest way to acquire additional 1st round picks is to do so a year in advance. It's not like the Giants didn't get a 1st round pick this year; they just got a slightly lesser one, and now have TWO 1st round picks next year.
And yes, Smith would have been ideal. But in case you weren't watching last night, he was not available when the Giants' turn came up. To judge this trade against having Smith is dumb, quite honestly. The Giants didn't trade out of #11 with Smith still available. They traded out once Smith was taken in front of them.
Second, this is diminishing what Toney can bring to the table in 2021. Yeah, Smith it better, but by how much? Not sure, but its not wildly unrealistic to think that Toney won't help us in 2021.
Bonus point, regardless of being bad or great in 2021 we have an additional 1st that you are going to like having a whole lot in 2022 - that's a fact.
Secondly, they won’t be picking in the top 10 either. Are you forgetting how good they were last year, except for erratic qb play? Didn’t they make the playoffs? They have a good defense and good weapons on offense. I imagine 8-8 is the worst case scenario, so I’m expecting we will pick 15-22.