I like what the Giants received, but maybe the trade is not so one-sided if we use a standard Draft Value Chart and conventional scoring.
The Giants surrendered the 11th pick -- that's 1,250 points.
For this Draft the Giants received the 20th and 164th selections -- that's 876 points (i.e., 850 + 26).
As for the the picks next season, several BBIers mentioned that da Bears will struggle quite a lot, thus the Giants will get a Top 10 pick. But we just don't know for sure, so the safe assumption is to place the Bears first round pick right in the middle, say #16. And same with their fourth round pick, say around #112.
So, that gives the Giants another 1,070 points (i.e., 1,000 + 70).
But wait a minute!
The convention is that any future pick from next season must be valued at one round later. So, the Bears' 16th pick should be scored as the 48th pick (430 points) and the 112th pick should be scored as the 144th pick (34 points).
So, to summarize -- Giants surrender 1,250 points and receive 1,340 points in return:
2021: #20 (850 points)
2021: #164 (26 points)
2022: #16 devalued one round to #48 (430 points)
2022: #112 devalued one round to #144 (34 points)
From this perspective, the trade looks pretty even!
Especially since it is likely the Bears will miss the playoffs and picking possibly in the top 10 or even in the Top 5.
Agree where the Bears end up will have an huge impact on the draft. If they have a top 10 pick this is worth it and If late 1st round less so.
I pull the trigger as GM though
Instead, Gettlemen/Abrams settled down to plan B, made some calls and lengthened our 2021 draft to 7 picks and added two (including a first rounder) next year.
When you can take rotten apples and make excellent apple sauce.....that is making the best of a bad situation.
Then take a look at early reports that say 2022 draft is shaping up to be one of the deepest drafts in a long time. Things can change but, if true this bodes very well for having the additional draft capital.
I think this was a sweet deal and we still got a bigtime playmaker.
Instead, Gettlemen/Abrams settled down to plan B, made some calls and lengthened our 2021 draft to 7 picks and added two (including a first rounder) next year.
When you can take rotten apples and make excellent apple sauce.....that is making the best of a bad situation.
I'm with you on this 100000%!
You make several important points.
We're all rooting for 0-17!
Also, the Giants got back the 5th this year which they gave up for Leonard Williams - I love getting back in the 5th round. Also, that 4th round pick next year is valuable as well.
It was a very smart trade and sets up the Giants very nicely in the future.
If Toney is what Boylhart says and not what Sy says this is a great day for the Giants.
maximize value in the draft is the key....as its a net sum game.....
talent is close....a slightly better player here and there...makes a ton of difference.
Smith vs Toney will be a fun comparison for many years to come. My Eagles fans.....know, Toney will end up as a better player. LOL
Also, the Giants got back the 5th this year which they gave up for Leonard Williams - I love getting back in the 5th round. Also, that 4th round pick next year is valuable as well.
It was a very smart trade and sets up the Giants very nicely in the future.
I agree. The Giants were essentially stuck in neutral after DeVonta Smith was taken! That trade back with Chicago put the Giants into high gear, especially next Draft!
If Toney is what Boylhart says and not what Sy says this is a great day for the Giants.
Amen to that!
maximize value in the draft is the key....as its a net sum game.....
talent is close....a slightly better player here and there...makes a ton of difference.
Smith vs Toney will be a fun comparison for many years to come. My Eagles fans.....know, Toney will end up as a better player. LOL
I'm with you 100%. The Giants were hanging on a precipice when DeVonta Smith was picked. That trade back with da Bears put us on very solid footing!
I think many of us feel the exact same way. But the Giants made the best of a bad situation with that trade!
Football is such a volatile sport. The bears are no lock to be good. One or two injuries with that schedule and we could be landing a big time pick. Well worth the risk.
one hit away......
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
If gives the Giants massive flexibility. 1st round picks have significant value. A lot of times they don’t pan out, but it doesn’t change the value they represent before the pick is made.
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
I mean if the "Bears shit the bed completely..." not the Browns
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simple, the 4th round pick in 2022 and the 5th round pick in 2021 are basically lottery tickets that got tossed around into draft maneuvering more than they actually result in a player being drafted in that spot and "panning out"
this comes down to one thing: where is the Bears pick in 2022.
If this pick is in the teens/early twenties, it's just a meh trade, if the Browns shit the bed completely and it's a top 10 pick the Giants did well.
but to say "it was a haul" to move down 9 spots or the Giants fleeced the Bears, etc. is all completely speculative at this point. it's a risk for the Giants.
If gives the Giants massive flexibility. 1st round picks have significant value. A lot of times they don’t pan out, but it doesn’t change the value they represent before the pick is made.
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
depends where in the first it is.
if the Giants feel they need a QB in the 2022 draft there is at least a decent chance they wind up in a draft spot to take the QB themselves. but yes, a 2nd first could help them move up to get one.
it still doesn't change that the evaluation of the trade is tied to where the Bears pick winds up.
Agree where the Bears end up will have an huge impact on the draft. If they have a top 10 pick this is worth it and If late 1st round less so.
I pull the trigger as GM though
Completely agree. 1st round picks are much riskier this year than past. I'm personally shocked that so many players that sat out a year (I don't blame the players) went in the first, especially Trey Lance. Training/working out isn't the same as live reps and while I think he'll be a good one ultimately, I fully expect even Sewell to struggle early on next season.
Hopefully next years draft turns out to be as deep as expected.
Here is what Chad Reuter thinks.
Grade
A+
New York Giants
Draft pick
Florida WR Kadarius Toney (No. 20 overall)
Analysis: I projected the Bears-Giants deal in my first-round trades article a few weeks ago, despite the Giants’ apparent reticence against moving down early in the draft. Getting a first- and fourth-rounder in 2022, plus a fifth-rounder this year, to move down nine spots wasn’t much of a decision for GM Dave Gettleman.
Toney’s quickness off the line of scrimmage is fantastic, and he looked like a first-rounder from the get-go during the 2020 season. Daniel Jones should find the former Gator to be a great slot target, combining with free agent acquisitions Kenny Golladay and John Ross to spice up the Giants' passing attack. Although Toney had a couple drops during Senior Bowl week, he was reliable during his Florida career, so I don’t believe that is an issue. And if you watched those practices closely, Toney separated from defenders in Mobile, Alabama, in a way that most receivers don’t.
The Giants are trying to win in 2021 and fi they drafted Smith- they would've probably been a better football team.
The object of the game is to win when you are trying to win and the Giants are trying to win. Who is is better for Jones- Smith or Toney? Smith.
Overall I'm fine with the trade. But aren't most of you sick and tried of watching losing football? Giving up the better player doesn't make this team better.
The discounting of future picks is based on the uncertainty of the future draft. If you believe the Bears with a rookie quarterback will struggle, as do I, there is a very good chance we will end up with two top fifteen picks next year. Which would make this trade sensational, assuming the Giants break this woeful habit of reaching for need... Which, to be clear, could not be less clear.
Are they really that much of a trainwreck?
I don't know if a full round is the accurate measure by which to discount a pick a year out, but, contrary I think to FMiC's point, if you discount to present value, there must be a reduction in the present value of a #1 and #4 in 2022. I just hope we parlay the 5 into a trade up to get someone the Giants' board dictates they must have.
The 2022 draft is going to be loaded. There are only about 750 players in this draft instead of the usual about 2000. I think that the #1 next year from the Bears will be more valuable than a typical draft year.
WTF kind of logic is this?
Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
I happen to watch these situations very closely and the QB crop for '22 is very uninspiring outside of Sam Howell (strong comp to Mayfield). Rattler could be interesting for OU. But that's about it for now...
So it's imperative that Jones blossoms now...
There will be QB’s who emerge this upcoming season. I have no doubts about that.
Especially since it is likely the Bears will miss the playoffs and picking possibly in the top 10 or even in the Top 5.
Agreed that discounting next year’s picks by a full round is excessive. As a thought experiment, wouldn’t a rational GM trade away their 2nd round pick every single year and get two 1st rounders consistently? It’s a simple idea but hasn’t been put into practice and I think the reason is that the NFL market is not a full round discount per year, it’s less than that, which makes that hypothetical trade away your 2nd approach much less attractive.
Disagree about the Bears - they are a decent middle of the pack team. Their QBing may improve vs last year and there’s a lot of talent on that defense.
It gives up options: if Daniel Jones does not elevate his game, we could package the two firsts to move up or maybe even add a 2023 first to go after a name quarterback like DeShaun Watson. Problem with Rodgers is he's ageing now.
Are they really that much of a trainwreck?
I agree here, the NFL is hard to predict. I am expecting a pick around where the Giants just picked maybe seven to 11 to 13
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Giants can now move up for QB next year if Jones is poor and there is a guy they like.
I happen to watch these situations very closely and the QB crop for '22 is very uninspiring outside of Sam Howell (strong comp to Mayfield). Rattler could be interesting for OU. But that's about it for now...
So it's imperative that Jones blossoms now...
I’ve been saying all winter and spring next year’s qb crop isn’t very good..gotta hope someone comes out of nowhere like Burrow 2 years ago, one guy I have my eyes on will be JT Daniels at Georgia...
1. I don't think you can drop the pick a full round.
2. The Bears are a team with a lower floor next year. Even if they're actually a good team next year, I think we took an excellent risk there. It's not like we took the Rams or Chiefs 2022 first round pick.
3. I think picks this year are marginally devalued because of COVID - you have less information than usual. And it sounds like next year's draft class is going to be really good.