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WR Kadarius Toney: help me understand

dannysection 313 : 5/1/2021 10:54 am
While I am a huge Giant's fan, have been on the board forever, and had season tix for decades, I am far from a draft expert...I tend to be a wait, see who they picked, and even further, see how they play, sort of fan.

But, there is so much love for the big picture of Giant's Draft 2021 and I am a bit confused about one facet. Thanks for helping me get it...I want to feel good about what's gone on so far.

Specifically, I am confused about the first pick...Kadarius Toney.

We all have great faith, and great appreciation, for the tremendous work Sy does before and during the draft and, like most others here, if Sy likes a guy, that's good enough for me.

So, what gives on Toney, if Sy had him as the 14th best wide receiver, with a 77 grade that is deemed as a" 3rd rounder – Should be able to rotate by end of rookie year – Year 2/3 starter"

Thanks, not looking for a debate, I admit my ignorance, just trying to figure out the conflicting information (excitement for the pick v Sy's very educated/generally spot on evaluation)!
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Sy is one voice  
Ben in Tampa : 5/1/2021 10:56 am : link
Does great work, great research.

His evaluations get a “home field advantage” because he posts here.

He’s not right about everyone. He’s not wrong about everyone. He’s one well informed and articulated opinion.
I’m no expert  
armstead98 : 5/1/2021 10:59 am : link
My best guess is that a lot what of Sy said about him is spot on, for example his route running probably needs some work and he’s never going to be physical red zone target teams covet.

But there are some things he does really really well, like stop on a dime and shake defenders out of their shoes. I mean he’s ridiculous out there, looking like Allen Iverson crossing people over.

Those traits are probably what the Giants see and think, he’s far from a finished product right now but when he is, watch out.

So Sys not necessarily wrong but it could still be a phenomenal pick.
Reasonable,  
BigBlueinDE : 5/1/2021 10:59 am : link
educated professionals can look at the same set of data or, in this case, players and may reach a different conclusion. In my view, tha's the NFL draft in a nutshell.
Also is Sy's  
antdog24 : 5/1/2021 11:00 am : link
mock he had Toney goin at 25 the Jags. He obviously felt he was a 1st round worthy talent.
This is the pick I am worried about  
cosmicj : 5/1/2021 11:00 am : link
That first round fell out really badly for the Giants, before and after the trade down. I’m concerned Toney was stuck down there on the team’s rankings and never received the scrutiny higher ranked players did.

The guy’s quickness is elite but he is relatively slow to my eyes for the NFL. He is also something of a gadget player, too. So the question of positional value comes into play. NFL teams generally don’t draft possession receivers and third down backs in the 1st round. Hopefully, I am wrong, but there’s a lot of risk with this one.
Another poster said it best on here  
eric2425ny : 5/1/2021 11:01 am : link
the other day, Toney is basically Curtis Samuel. He’s not quite as polished in terms of route running as Samuel, but he’s shiftier. Toney is a player that will create matchup nightmares for defenses as they have to account for Golladay, Barkley, Slayton running deep, etc. I can see Toney sliding underneath and turning short catches into chunk gains on a regular basis.
Sy’s grade includes a downgrade for character concerns  
HopePhil and Optimistic : 5/1/2021 11:03 am : link
Otherwise it might have been considerably higher.
I think Toney  
antdog24 : 5/1/2021 11:03 am : link
fits our system and that made him a valuable priority for us.
Not sure if this was reflected in his final score  
OttawaGiants : 5/1/2021 11:03 am : link
But part of the issue with him is/was his off the field issues (few gun incidents but nothing illegal). On the field he is extremely dynamic, just watch some of his highlight videos.

He's going to be able to create immediate separation for easy outlet passes, especially when teams decide to blitz. He's got great short area quickness so he should be able to rack up run after the catch yards on those plays too.

We didn't have many yards after the catch last year and Toney should bring that in spades. Will make life easier for Daniel Jones.
Sy’s grade includes a downgrade for character concerns  
HopePhil and Optimistic : 5/1/2021 11:03 am : link
Otherwise it might have been considerably higher.
It's an art and not a science  
HomerJones45 : 5/1/2021 11:05 am : link
and Sy is very good at it and very good to share his opinions here.

He acknowledges that some sources had Toney as a top 5 receiver.
This is nothing new  
djm : 5/1/2021 11:07 am : link
scouts differ on players all the time. Scouts love The top players and the rest all fall into different tiers.
Ask Sy...obvious, the Giants and several others thought differently  
George from PA : 5/1/2021 11:07 am : link
I did....I feel Toney will be better then the Alabama WRs.

I respect Sy....but thought he was way off base on him, but that is ok. Different strokes for different folks.

Toney is a "Barkley" imo...an offensive weapon.
Thanks, guys  
dannysection 313 : 5/1/2021 11:08 am : link
I appreciate the perspectives.....indeed, it's never a precise science. See Tom Brady...
Watch this video of Toney's plays vs Alabama. Keep in mind that it  
Ira : 5/1/2021 11:10 am : link
isn't a highlight clip and he's going against a great team. I won't say any more. Just watch it. It's only 5 minutes.
Kadarius Toney (Florida WR) vs Alabama - ( New Window )
I see three things:  
CT Charlie : 5/1/2021 11:10 am : link
1) I think Judge, with his background in special teams, gave Toney a lot of bonus points because of his talent as KR and PR. All the evaluators agree that Toney's joystick-quick first-step-shake is truly elite.

2) Some evaluators (not Sy, I don't think) downgraded KT's hands because they were BAD in the Senior Bowl tryouts. In games, over the course of his career, his hands were good.

3) Sy acknowledged character question marks based largely, I think, on the fake gun, real gun, incidents. Did that affect Sy's evaluation, consciously or subconsciously? Hard to say.

I happened to like Elijah Moore more, as a player with a lower ceiling perhaps but a higher floor. However, EM is shorter, lighter, and perhaps not as durable (strong? tough?) as KT. Boylhart, who is a VERY eccentric evaluator, ranked Toney as the #1 WR in the draft, and by a surprising margin.
two things on Toney -  
Del Shofner : 5/1/2021 11:11 am : link
- there was a downgrade for character concerns (I assume the Giants have checked out this aspect); and

- purely as a WR, I get it - he's not Smith. But Smith is not Toney, either. Toney was a star QB in high school and you will find him listed at "RB" earlier in his college career. I think he's a great all-around offensive weapon especially on third down. It's true his straight line speed does not appear to be elite. But he's a crazy good runner with the ball in his hands.
I'm like 313, but  
MarvelousMike : 5/1/2021 11:11 am : link
I see somewhat from what I read that he will break a DBs ankles within a phone booth with his short area quickness. He does need to work on his route running. Does not have the breakaway speed as some of the videos show him being caught from behind. Does have a skill set the Giants are missing. Probably does not not start week 1, but will get progressively more plays as he learns. Could see more action is someone ahead of him gets injured. I see him taking a bigger jump in playing time and as a contributor next season.
Maybe Toney is the compromise  
Bill L : 5/1/2021 11:13 am : link
Between those of us who wanted a WR and those of you who didn’t?
He underrated Toney IMO  
KDavies : 5/1/2021 11:16 am : link
I guarantee like anyone else (Kiper,etc.) you can go back and see hits and misses. Toney was tied with Chase for the highest athleticism score of WRs in this draft. Toney has been used more as a gadget player until this past season, so he doesn’t have some of the other WR skills as developed as others, but he will be a huge weapon and complement the Giants other skill guys well. He will be used in short to intermediate routes, run the ball, maybe return a bit. Just get the ball in his hands and let him do the rest
Oh, and regarding Toney's route running,  
CT Charlie : 5/1/2021 11:16 am : link
he definitely rounds his cuts. (Which seems strange for a guy who's so strong, and notable for his quick steps.) But some analysts point out that because Toney was a quarterback (even at the start of his college career) against zone coverage he runs by instinct into open gaps - to make it easy for his QB, Trask, to find him. So what may look sloppy is actually smart and effective.
I feel like people expect...  
Johnny5 : 5/1/2021 11:18 am : link
... some player that is going to be wearing a cape and completely elevating a team. That is NOT what the draft is for, though most fans seem to look at it that way.

The draft is ultimately for building your team for the next year and beyond. You have to look at it through that lens. Getting better starters is great but if you are counting on the draft to make your team 100% better in that year than you suck at drafting... see Giants from about 2009 onward.
wait...  
Brown_Hornet : 5/1/2021 11:18 am : link
...Toney looks slow?

Relative to Toney's quickness, Usain Bolt looks slow.

Hey Danny  
allstarjim : 5/1/2021 11:18 am : link
Sy indicated there were serious character flags with him. That very likely dropped his grade, and Sy takes all of that into account. Note that Sy didn't say character questions, but seemed to indicate more.

Now, a good kid can get into trouble. Toney hasn't had anything off the field that we know of since 2018.

My thinking is Toney's grade was impacted greatly by off the field factors.

Judge said he's particular about who he brings in the building. They are very comfortable with him. I'm suggesting he's been fully vetted and the character stuff is way behind him.

A good question for Sy might be what he wpuld've given Toney if he was squeaky clean off the field.
Re: why on Toney?  
Giant16 : 5/1/2021 11:19 am : link
Agree that you need to view multiple sources to get a consensus of writers/bloggers. This was also set up by a successful FA period. I was initially puzzled and didn't like the pick, as I was lulled like most of us for months into looking at the top 12 or so players and expected to get Smith.
The entire dynamic changed w the Philly trade & I don't think the team panicked or forced a pick. Fortunately Fields was still there & the Bears called. Trading down, getting picks... (next year #1 is huge) was a success IMO.
Back to Toney - I think its about what tools can you put in your toolbox. I have since read that he's difficult to bring down, excellent low balance, minimal drops, multiple uses out of the slot, running back ability on Jet sweeps, return game etc. All this sets him aside from a typical WR, so I think there is a lot of value there. Comparisons to Kamara are pretty nice too.
Its hard to ignore the impact of playing in the best conference and all of the connections Judge & team seem to have w the SEC (scouts & coaches).
Have to say I like the first 3 picks. Thought we would go OL in the 3rd... but you have to take the best value - not just need.
Don't look at him as a WR  
Giantimistic : 5/1/2021 11:23 am : link
and look at him as a playmaker and the perspective should change. SY has him ranked and rated in with the WRs and so the ranking makes sense.

From what I have seen and read, just think playmaker, get the ball in his hands type of player.

Would you think of David Meggit as a running back, receiver or a playmaker that can scare defenses and give you flexibility on offense and a punch on special teams.
Sy seemed to have dinged him heavily  
UConn4523 : 5/1/2021 11:25 am : link
for character concerns. If those concerns are no longer the case (which is how the giants view it or they wouldn’t have taken him) that means his grade is a lot higher. That’s my take anyway.
RE: Don't look at him as a WR  
eric2425ny : 5/1/2021 11:26 am : link
In comment 15248258 Giantimistic said:
Quote:
and look at him as a playmaker and the perspective should change. SY has him ranked and rated in with the WRs and so the ranking makes sense.

From what I have seen and read, just think playmaker, get the ball in his hands type of player.

Would you think of David Meggit as a running back, receiver or a playmaker that can scare defenses and give you flexibility on offense and a punch on special teams.


Exactly. He’s like a Percy Harvin type player. I think that’s probably the closest comparable. Meggett was shorter but similar in terms of explosiveness.
His straight line speed isn’t exceptional  
cosmicj : 5/1/2021 11:27 am : link
His quickness, absolutely.
If we wait until after the draft  
Bill L : 5/1/2021 11:28 am : link
Sy will do his “what I would have done” piece and explain it to you.
RE: This is the pick I am worried about  
RobCrossRiver56 : 5/1/2021 11:29 am : link
In comment 15248203 cosmicj said:
Quote:
That first round fell out really badly for the Giants, before and after the trade down. I’m concerned Toney was stuck down there on the team’s rankings and never received the scrutiny higher ranked players did.

The guy’s quickness is elite but he is relatively slow to my eyes for the NFL. He is also something of a gadget player, too. So the question of positional value comes into play. NFL teams generally don’t draft possession receivers and third down backs in the 1st round. Hopefully, I am wrong, but there’s a lot of risk with this one.



What the ?
The hardest part of evaluating prospects  
robbieballs2003 : 5/1/2021 11:30 am : link
is blending what the player IS and what he CAN BE. You cannot just assume that everyone will improve their hands or route running. So, how much does potential weigh into grades?
Toney  
WillVAB : 5/1/2021 11:31 am : link
Is a quick twitch explosive playmaker who provides a different flavor than guys like Golloday or Slayton. If they use him right he can be a nice weapon in this offense.
RE: Toney  
robbieballs2003 : 5/1/2021 11:38 am : link
In comment 15248278 WillVAB said:
Quote:
Is a quick twitch explosive playmaker who provides a different flavor than guys like Golloday or Slayton. If they use him right he can be a nice weapon in this offense.


It reminds me of Brian Billick when he said you want your WRs to be like a basketball team. We have very unique weapons now. Injuries will be interesting with how they adapt because these players are so unique but they all provide something different for defenses to really have to pick and choose their poison.
The biggest issues with our passing game last year  
AdamBrag : 5/1/2021 11:38 am : link
Was WRs getting separation on their own and creating easy completions for Daniel Jones.

Toney is one of the best WRs in the draft at getting separation. Even better, his most frequently run route was a quick route over the middle, which is an easy outlet for a QB.

Toney is basically the perfect version of a slot WR in Garrett's offense.
The Giants offense and Return Teams  
M.S. : 5/1/2021 11:42 am : link

Had zero "wow" players on the field (Saquon Barkley aside).

The team was slow, predictable and extremely easy to defend.

Kadarius Toney would not have been my choice at 20, but he brings something special to the Giants table. He'll be a return man; run power sweeps; WR slip screens; direct snaps from Center; half back options; reverses; and, yes, go out for passes.

He brings a very exciting new dimension to a team that was DESPERATE for that dimension!
The one thing about Toney you have to remember  
Simms11 : 5/1/2021 11:44 am : link
and I think it applied in this draft, is that he only really had one year as a true WR. He was a gadget, Swiss Army knife kind of player. Also they say his route running is not yet refined. The bottom line is he’s a very dynamic playmaker at WR and I can see the reason why they drafted him.
RE: His straight line speed isn’t exceptional  
Brown_Hornet : 5/1/2021 11:49 am : link
In comment 15248270 cosmicj said:
Quote:
His quickness, absolutely.
He did run a sub 4.4
Toney runs a faster 40 than Smith.  
George from PA : 5/1/2021 11:49 am : link
Smith has different gears
RE: RE: Toney  
WillVAB : 5/1/2021 11:52 am : link
In comment 15248287 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
In comment 15248278 WillVAB said:


Quote:


Is a quick twitch explosive playmaker who provides a different flavor than guys like Golloday or Slayton. If they use him right he can be a nice weapon in this offense.



It reminds me of Brian Billick when he said you want your WRs to be like a basketball team. We have very unique weapons now. Injuries will be interesting with how they adapt because these players are so unique but they all provide something different for defenses to really have to pick and choose their poison.


Yep. Now just need to make sure the OL is solid so they can do their thing.
just watching about 5-6 profile  
Rory : 5/1/2021 11:58 am : link
videos of this kid should help. He's probably the most explosive player in the first round.

Think Ike Hilliard with a few ticks up in speed.

somebody just needs to tell him to go down, he's 5'11 190 and plays like hes 6-2 210

appears to handle contact off the line well too
he is still learning the position  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 5/1/2021 11:58 am : link
he was a QB when he was recruited to Florida. He has a lot of upside.
That 4.4 he ran was not at the combine  
cosmicj : 5/1/2021 12:03 pm : link
If he adapts to the NFL, Toney will hopefully used his quickness not to generate TDS but to gain a couple of extra first downs a game and keep the offense on the field longer. I’d be curious to see if there are any advance stats quantifying the value of those extra first downs.
cosmicj  
ColHowPepper : 5/1/2021 12:12 pm : link
I'm with you in your concern in your initial comment this thread. While Toney is certainly quick and twitchy and offers a lot of versatility for the O, my main worry is that as fast and quick as his stops and starts and changes of direction (the joystick meme) appear, in the faster, bigger NFL with Cs, Ss and LBs as or nearly as quick, will he be whaled on if those moves are not quick enough?
RE: cosmicj  
Ten Ton Hammer : 5/1/2021 12:18 pm : link
In comment 15248406 ColHowPepper said:
Quote:
I'm with you in your concern in your initial comment this thread. While Toney is certainly quick and twitchy and offers a lot of versatility for the O, my main worry is that as fast and quick as his stops and starts and changes of direction (the joystick meme) appear, in the faster, bigger NFL with Cs, Ss and LBs as or nearly as quick, will he be whaled on if those moves are not quick enough?


This would seem to be a concern for an undersized player. He's quite average sized for a WR.
Sy did start off his commentary  
BSIMatt : 5/1/2021 12:18 pm : link
Quote:


There are some teams that have Toney in the top 5 according to one of the very few media resources I trust and speak with. That really surprises me. I won’t give details here but there are a few serious red flags with character, and I just don’t see Toney having a high ceiling.


So he mentions he knows of nfl teams that had him top 5 and then mentions few serious red flags with character right after. The red flag character stuff was mentioned elsewhere. Not sure that played into his actual grade or not but it is telling it was first thing he mentioned after saying nfl teams had him in top 5. By all accounts Giants don’t take character concerns lightly, maybe even more so with Joe Judge at the helm. They obviously missed some things with DeAndre Baker(Gettleman pick before Joe Jusge) so that to me is even more reason they wouldn’t take those issues lightly. Outside of that, it’s the draft and beauty is very much in the eye of the beholder. Where one eval sees rawness/lack of refinement as a wr, another might see that as a player who once he learns those skills can be that much better as a player(untapped potential).

The other thing with Toney that was mentioned by Sy is that the team that drafts him should have a plan and role for him in mind. This is something I’ve heard from other evaluations as well and I think when you go to a team that already has an X option in Golladay, a backfield weapon in Saquon, a steady pro slot in Sheppard and Slayton who has shown some promise as a complimentary downfield threat(miscast as our X for his first two years) then you are absolutely in a position where you can define a specific way that a guy like Toney can help your team, he doesn’t need to be a perfect/polished all around receiver out of the gate. Giants were blitzed at a higher rate than just about any team in the league last year(could not have helped a young oline getting their sea legs in pass pro) and also were last in the nfl as a receiver group in yac...this is Toneys A+ strength and absolutely an area where he can come in and help the Giants counter what defenses where doing last year(Barkley and Golladay will help tremendously in that regard as well).

I don't think he's the "take the top off the defense" type ...  
Manny in CA : 5/1/2021 12:18 pm : link

Like De Vonta Smith can (a top-of-the board guy),he's a top 20; just where he got drafted.

Is that bad ? No-way, we need someone like that. He can be the reincarnation of our Steve Smith, a few years ago, but better. He kind of reminds me a bit of tough guy Anquan Boldin (with better feet and speed)

I think he will replace Shep at slot very quickly.
Agree with cosmic that he is more quick than fast  
Jim in Forest Hills : 5/1/2021 12:24 pm : link
Ike is a good comp in terms of that. Watch Rondale Moore at top speed vs Toney you will see a difference in top flight speed. Or call it top speed.
I think KT's use will also dial in with more of the college schemes being brought in. I'm thinking a Brandon Aiyuk type impact.
Most big shots in the NFL are to bigger players  
UConn4523 : 5/1/2021 12:27 pm : link
I rarely see the small guys get popped, most of them are very good at alluding the big hit. And while the game speed is quicker in the NFL I don’t think individual players are - elite speed happens in your early 20’s and only goes downhill from there.
RE: RE: cosmicj  
ColHowPepper : 5/1/2021 12:30 pm : link
In comment 15248443 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
In comment 15248406 ColHowPepper said:
Quote: I'm with you in your concern in your initial comment this thread. While Toney is certainly quick and twitchy and offers a lot of versatility for the O, my main worry is that as fast and quick as his stops and starts and changes of direction (the joystick meme) appear, in the faster, bigger NFL with Cs, Ss and LBs as or nearly as quick, will he be whaled on if those moves are not quick enough?////

This would seem to be a concern for an undersized player. He's quite average sized for a WR.
Hammer, my worry is not about size, it's about the speed of his quicks: when he does his stops/starts/changes of direction, he leaves college players in second level and secondary grasping at air. In the NFL, is that going to be fast enough to elude tacklers and avoid contact...or not? If not, does he become more 'ordinary'?
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