The Giants picked a good year to be without a 7th round pick and next year will be a good year for teams with extra 7th round picks.
Not only did social distancing protocols make 2021 a difficult year to do a deep dive into potential sleeper picks, but a lot of borderline NFL talent took advantage of the extra year of eligibility to improve their stock in the 2021 college season, so it left the 2021 draft shorter on the kind of borderline talent that fills out the 7th round (would the likes of Ahmad Bradshaw and Conrad Hamilton--two former 7th round picks who shined--have returned for an extra year of eligibility had they the opportunity?).
Conversely, the 2022 draft should be thick with that level of borderline NFL talent. So basically, the quality of the talent in next year's 7th round should be higher than in a normal year. In fact, using a bell curve as my model, I would expect each round of next year's draft to be increasingly thick with talent compared to this year's draft. What I mean by that is that the 2022 draft may have one or two more prospects than normal with 1st round talent, 3 or 4 more prospects than normal with 2nd round talent, 5 to 6 more prospect than normal with 3rd round talent, and so on and so forth. The math isn't exact, but you get my point.
My point: I wouldn't be as quick to give up a 7th round pick come cutdown day in September as I may have been in year's past. Just the opposite. Hopefully the quality of competition in camp is stiff enough that the Giants are able to flip one of our edge rushers or CBs (two positions where we are deep in borderline NFL talent, but perhaps short on plus player talent) for a 2022 7th round pick on cutdown day. Also, even though we are set at kicker and punter, bringing in some quality competition for them could mean flipping that guy for a 7th round pick to a team that lost their kicker or punter due to injury.
p.s.--Not to miller my own thread before it's even started, but with so many players on the roster in their contract years, this may also be a good year to unload one or two of them (Engram, Hernandez, maybe even Peppers) at the mid-season trading deadline, but usually it's the bad teams that are in the seller's market and good team's doing the buying, so it's not something I'm rooting to see. Just food for thought, because restless Dave Gettleman is never satisfied and always on the lookout for action.
Note to chopperhatch--Yeah, yeah, I know, longwinded. I used a lot of words to say very little. It happens.
UDFA (on regulated average) have as good a chance or better to have NFL "success"
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
UDFA (on regulated average) have as good a chance or better to have NFL "success"
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
So if the question is: would you give up your right to sign undrafted free agents for a single 7th round pick, of course the answer would be no. The five or ten undrafted free agents you sign are more likely to deliver a future starter than the 7th round pick you made, but that 7th round pick is more likely to make it than any individual undrafted free agent.
The undrafted's only win out because of their strength in numbers.
It is a nice luxury to have multiple 6th and 7th round picks in order to load up on bodies like last year for the Giants.
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success chart says there is statistically almost no difference really between having a 7th or not. the chance at success (loosely defined even) for a 7th round pick so long fans shouldn't get excited or upset based on having/not having or who gets selected or not selected in the 7th.
UDFA (on regulated average) have as good a chance or better to have NFL "success"
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
Impossible to compare likelihood of success when you consider that there are roughly 35 7th round picks (give or take, when including comp picks) and hundreds of undrafted free agents in training camps around the league. And it's not like just the priority undrafted free agents make it to the NFL, there are guys who come out of nowhere like Victor Cruz or Kurt Warner.
So if the question is: would you give up your right to sign undrafted free agents for a single 7th round pick, of course the answer would be no. The five or ten undrafted free agents you sign are more likely to deliver a future starter than the 7th round pick you made, but that 7th round pick is more likely to make it than any individual undrafted free agent.
The undrafted's only win out because of their strength in numbers.
that why I said on a regulated average, meaning it's normalized for sample size.
fact is 7th round picks are beyond scratch off lottery tickets, for every Ahmad Bradshaw there are 50 Stoney Woodsoons and Gerrick Mcphearson's - even for the skilled drafting teams.
7th round picks get traded like tic tacs and I'm fine with that.
A 7th round pick has more value being packaged in a move higher into the 6th than it does drafting a player.