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Will Ojulari lead rookies in Sacks?

aGiantGuy : 5/3/2021 11:01 am
Was going to post this on a Twitter Fantasy Football debate on which rookies will lead the league in sacks. Thought better of it but I thought the stats still hold some value, so I’ll share.

‪Certain fantasy football projections have Ojulari outpaced in sacks by Jaelan Phillips, Kwity Paye, Payton Turner and Owafe Oweh.

Ojulari, 193 Pass Rush snaps 8.5 sacks 36 pressures. 25% True Pressure %

Oweh, 171 Pass Rush snaps, 24 pressures, 0 Sacks. 21 True Pressure %

Paye, 138 Pass Rush snaps, 2 sacks 29 pressures. 29 True Pressure %

Phillips, 286 Pass Rush Snaps, 8 sacks, 35 pressures. ‬True pressure %: 13%

Payton Turner, 103 Pass Rush Snaps, 5 Sacks, 13 Pressures. True Pressure %: 18%

Joe Tryon,(2019) 301 Pass Rush Snaps, 8 Sacks, 35 Pressures, 18% True Pressure %

Phillips was my preferred edge rusher, but I came along on Ojulari when I watched some of his best games, which were IMO Tennessee, Cincinnati, Missouri, and Auburn. He was my Edge 2a with Paye. Sacks don’t correlate well year to year so I included true pressure % which varies less year to year.

I loved the pick, the player and the value, and I expect Ojulari to be a stud that starts at ROLB game 1. Go Giants!

.  
HMunster : 5/3/2021 11:07 am : link
LOL...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/3/2021 11:08 am : link
WTF? Now we're projecting stats before we even know about camp and everything else that will happen between now and Sept?
Here's my prediction  
PwndPapi : 5/3/2021 11:10 am : link
HOF. First ballot. Year 1.
Thanks for the stats breakdown  
Rjanyg : 5/3/2021 11:12 am : link
Ojulari was my 2nd favorite player in the draft ( after Parsons - fuck Dallas ).

He will be an excellent addition to our edge group.
HMunster +1  
JonC : 5/3/2021 11:15 am : link
BBIers are allowing their hearts to block their brains wrt to Toney and Ojulari.
The Oweh..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/3/2021 11:16 am : link
stat projection cracks me up.

They put a specific number of pressures they think he will get, but he'll have no sacks?? How do they really come up with this shit?

A guy like Nico Lalos can work into a couple of game-changing plays.
Rhetorical question...  
Mike from Ohio : 5/3/2021 11:20 am : link
Is it possible to like this draft, but not assume everyone we drafted is going to be an All-Pro?

Toney is better than Smith. Ojulari will lead the league in sacks for rookies.

Is Robinson going to set the league record for picks by a rookie? Is Brightwell going to have a 1,000 yard season on 20 touches?

Let's maybe have some practices and even a pre-season game or two before we start guessing what these guys will be?
This is what happens  
allstarjim : 5/3/2021 11:25 am : link
Every year...Huge build up to the draft, lots of chatter, lots of excitement, and then after the weekend, it's all over very abruptly, every angle has been dissected, and some people are thinking, "now what?"

It's the lull after the draft. There's really nothing more to discuss until camp opens unless there's a free agency addition.
I don't understand how you can't have Phillips the  
Zeke's Alibi : 5/3/2021 11:26 am : link
far away favorite to lead in sacks. Guy was probably a top 10 pick without the injury history.
RE: I don't understand how you can't have Phillips the  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/3/2021 11:28 am : link
In comment 15251461 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
far away favorite to lead in sacks. Guy was probably a top 10 pick without the injury history.


Because he's projected to get a concussion on his 528th play from scrimmage by a pulling Guard on 2nd and 4 from the 38 yard line.....
A Twitter Fantasy Football debate on which rookies will lead the  
Jimmy Googs : 5/3/2021 11:33 am : link
league in sacks. And on May 3rd no less.

haha...



RE: RE: I don't understand how you can't have Phillips the  
HMunster : 5/3/2021 11:36 am : link
In comment 15251466 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
In comment 15251461 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


far away favorite to lead in sacks. Guy was probably a top 10 pick without the injury history.



Because he's projected to get a concussion on his 528th play from scrimmage by a pulling Guard on 2nd and 4 from the 38 yard line.....

Sorry  
aGiantGuy : 5/3/2021 11:56 am : link
Forgot to clarify that the stats shown are what they did ltheir ast year in college, not their projections. The whole draft is an exercise in projection, this is a recreational extension of that.
HMunster and Fatman  
PwndPapi : 5/3/2021 12:06 pm : link
Slayin it in this thread.
FWIW  
giants#1 : 5/3/2021 12:10 pm : link
Only 12 players last season had >35 pressures. Even if you add the guys that finished with 34 since there's an extra game next year, that only bumps it up to 15 players.

But 3 rookies are going to top that?
RE: FWIW  
aGiantGuy : 5/3/2021 12:19 pm : link
In comment 15251565 giants#1 said:
Quote:
Only 12 players last season had >35 pressures. Even if you add the guys that finished with 34 since there's an extra game next year, that only bumps it up to 15 players.

But 3 rookies are going to top that?

They’re not projections, this is just what they did last year at the college level. The actual projections had Phillips at 5.5 sacks and Ojulari at 3.7
Less than 20 sacks....  
MOOPS : 5/3/2021 12:24 pm : link
and Gettleman screwed the pooch again.
I Just Checked With A Reliable Source  
Trainmaster : 5/3/2021 3:20 pm : link


Much later.
RE: Sorry  
Danny Dimes : 5/3/2021 6:01 pm : link
In comment 15251524 aGiantGuy said:
Quote:
Forgot to clarify that the stats shown are what they did ltheir ast year in college, not their projections. The whole draft is an exercise in projection, this is a recreational extension of that.



Yeah i thought that was obvious till I read some replies of fools that didn't get it.


By checking these stats though, wow! Ojulari defently stands out as the best of the bunch, what a steal. With Leo and Dex causing havoc up the middle I expect Ojulari to be a beast!

RE: RE: Sorry  
HMunster : 5/3/2021 6:10 pm : link
In comment 15252102 Danny Dimes said:
Quote:
In comment 15251524 aGiantGuy said:


Quote:


Forgot to clarify that the stats shown are what they did ltheir ast year in college, not their projections. The whole draft is an exercise in projection, this is a recreational extension of that.




Yeah i thought that was obvious till I read some replies of fools that didn't get it.


RE: Sorry  
Ivan15 : 5/6/2021 7:30 am : link
In comment 15251524 aGiantGuy said:
Quote:
Forgot to clarify that the stats shown are what they did ltheir ast year in college, not their projections. The whole draft is an exercise in projection, this is a recreational extension of that.


It might be wise to take down this post and try again by adding some clarity.
My money is on Phillips  
jeff57 : 5/6/2021 8:30 am : link
.
Forced to bet on one guy, I'd have to take Phillips.  
Big Blue Blogger : 5/6/2021 9:32 am : link
He probably has one job this year, as a search-and-destroy situational pass-rusher. They're paying Ogbah $7MM to do the heavy lifting at RDE, and Van Ginkel is probably on Ogbah's shoulder in the base D.

That said, you bet on the field unless the odds on your favorite guy are at least 5-1. Ojulari should be at least 10-1. And both of those numbers are very low when you factor in injury risk for any player, projection risk for a rookie, depth chart traffic, and the sheer number of rookie EDGE players entering the League.
I remember when Football Outsiders came up with some formula  
Greg from LI : 5/6/2021 9:36 am : link
called SackSEER that was supposed to project pass-rushing. They brought it out in JPP's rookie year, and it predicted he would be horrible and out of the league in a few years.
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