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Did giants get enough from bears? Legit question

NJBlueTuna : 5/4/2021 5:35 pm
When I saw the trade I was thrilled as soon as I saw the Eagles trade up 2 spots to immediately leapfrog the giants, let’s face it we all knew it was for D Smith. Their trade back with the Bears was the only and best move. I am wondering if the giants or Bears were in a position of strength in light of that vs the QB premium for Fields given the Bears situation?

To be clear, I love the trade and think it could be a fairly high pick next year, I am just wondering where it sits based upon historical value given the value chart and QB premium?

Thanks

Yes  
Big Blue '56 : 5/4/2021 5:36 pm : link
.
Yes  
regulator : 5/4/2021 5:37 pm : link
Compare three spots later to the MIN-NYJ trade.
I think so,  
darren in pdx : 5/4/2021 5:38 pm : link
especially since the future 1st has the potential to be a top 10 pick, maybe no later than 15 unless they surprise this year.
I don’t know how to calculate  
cjac : 5/4/2021 5:38 pm : link
That value. But to me I feel in the past the Giants would have panicked and picked Toney without getting next years 1 and 4.

So as much as I wanted Smith, I was thrilled with what we did.
Yes  
GiantsFan84 : 5/4/2021 5:38 pm : link
i'm as critical about DG than anyone. it was a terrific trade.

i'm still on the fence about if i like the pick of toney or not but the trade was terrific
If you go by the draft value chart, yes  
UConn4523 : 5/4/2021 5:41 pm : link
if you factor in that Chicago can stink and increase it to a top 15 pick, yes

If you go back to threads prior and see what people would have been happy with swapping with NE at 15, yes

All boxes were checked here and that includes Chicago being a playoff team again and lowering next years value.
Yes  
ZogZerg : 5/4/2021 5:47 pm : link
And you have to consider that next years draft will have more talent.
According to Vegas  
Stan in LA : 5/4/2021 5:54 pm : link
Giants will get a top 10 pick from Bears.
Link - ( New Window )
Way  
NYGiants19 : 5/4/2021 5:55 pm : link
More than I would have given from all the draft chat
No to mention  
Beer Man : 5/4/2021 5:57 pm : link
If Daniel Jones takes the next step forward, the team could very well be in position next year to make similar moves as this year.
Thanks  
NJBlueTuna : 5/4/2021 6:05 pm : link
Keep in mind I didn’t do the math from the value chart and factor in the QB premium for a legit QB talent in Fields given the Bears situation. Emotionally, I am thrilled getting the picks and Toney instead of D Smith and actually prefer it. I am just wondering if anyone crunched the value numbers and added the QB premium as, tbh, it’s not easy to tell who has more leverage in the moment given our know affinity for Smith vs the Bears need for a QB.
RE: According to Vegas  
NJBlueTuna : 5/4/2021 6:06 pm : link
In comment 15253767 Stan in LA said:
Quote:
Giants will get a top 10 pick from Bears. Link - ( New Window )


It also says we are picking ahead of the Bears
Yeah it was good  
Leg of Theismann : 5/4/2021 6:08 pm : link
See Trade Value Chart linked below. I think you count the future year pick as 50% of the value. So a future #1 pick on average is worth ~500, but the Bears could end up being worth more than that because they're likely to finish in the bottom 15. Then add in this year's 5 and next year's 4 and I think total value was ~560 (the value chart says Giants were owed 450) so they got a little more than expected. I think they also got slightly more than the chart would indicate for trading from #42 back to #50 for the 2022 3rd rounder.

One thing I will say is I think the premium OVER the value chart paid by teams like the Bills and Jets back in 2018 was a little higher. For instance to move from 12 to 7, the Bills owed the Bucs a value of 300, and they actually got like 700. The premium paid though is always going to be higher for moving higher up in the draft AND depending on the QB the team is moving up for. I personally think the Giants should've gotten both Chicago's 2022 AND 2023 1st rounders (and nothing more) since they KNEW Chicago was moving up to get their franchise QB. But again it's different when you're moving up in the top 10 vs. the 10-20 range regardless and at least we KNOW the Giants didn't get fleeced. Probably the fact the Bears are expected to be bad starting a rookie QB is why the 2022 1st was inherently worth more (and rightfully so).
Trade Value Chart - ( New Window )
Below is a thread on BBI on just this topic  
M.S. : 5/4/2021 6:09 pm : link

It's entitled: "How well did the Giants do in trade with da Bears?"

See link below.

Link - ( New Window )
Yes it was a great trade for the Giants  
Jay on the Island : 5/4/2021 6:10 pm : link
I expected it to be a 2nd and a 4th to move down 9 spots. When I saw that they received a 1st next year I was thrilled because of how strong next years draft is expected to be.

Also as of now experts are predicting that 5 QB’s will go in round 1 so if Jones isn’t the answer the Giants have more assets to move up and get their next guy. Obviously a few of those five won’t end up going in round 1 but others will surprise and step up as Burrow, Lance, Jones, etc have done.

If Jones steps up then the Giants have two more 1st round picks to strengthen the DL, OL, LB, or TE positions.
RE: Yeah it was good  
Zeke's Alibi : 5/4/2021 6:13 pm : link
In comment 15253786 Leg of Theismann said:
Quote:
See Trade Value Chart linked below. I think you count the future year pick as 50% of the value. So a future #1 pick on average is worth ~500, but the Bears could end up being worth more than that because they're likely to finish in the bottom 15. Then add in this year's 5 and next year's 4 and I think total value was ~560 (the value chart says Giants were owed 450) so they got a little more than expected. I think they also got slightly more than the chart would indicate for trading from #42 back to #50 for the 2022 3rd rounder.

One thing I will say is I think the premium OVER the value chart paid by teams like the Bills and Jets back in 2018 was a little higher. For instance to move from 12 to 7, the Bills owed the Bucs a value of 300, and they actually got like 700. The premium paid though is always going to be higher for moving higher up in the draft AND depending on the QB the team is moving up for. I personally think the Giants should've gotten both Chicago's 2022 AND 2023 1st rounders (and nothing more) since they KNEW Chicago was moving up to get their franchise QB. But again it's different when you're moving up in the top 10 vs. the 10-20 range regardless and at least we KNOW the Giants didn't get fleeced. Probably the fact the Bears are expected to be bad starting a rookie QB is why the 2022 1st was inherently worth more (and rightfully so). Trade Value Chart - ( New Window )


The trade value chart is useless when evaluating overall value of future picks. They are "less valuable" because the next regime never knows if they will be able to benefit, and the power of needing something "now".

Honestly, if you have opportunity to drop 9 spots for that haul you do it everytime. The only reason they didn't jump all over it is because they had one left blue chip prospect left on their board until Eagles jumped.
3 QBs and 7 blue chip players. The Giants picked 11th.  
Ivan15 : 5/4/2021 6:24 pm : link
I think they did well.
yes...  
Brown_Hornet : 5/4/2021 6:26 pm : link
... I bet that if the giants didn't have the 11th pick that they would not have gotten a 1st round pick in return.
Yes  
lax counsel : 5/4/2021 6:33 pm : link
As someone who has been critical of the Giants front office, this was a quality move, and probably took the guy they would have at 11 anyway. It showed us they had a plan and didn't panic after plan A was off the board, which in reality likely shocked the Eagles and Cowboys a bit, as I am sure one or both was expecting the usual Giants panic.
I was hoping for a 3  
Harvest Blend : 5/4/2021 6:35 pm : link
but 4 is ok. The 1 is obvious. That's a big drop at this point of the draft.







In addition to it being a good deal by the criteria mentioned above...  
Big Blue Blogger : 5/4/2021 6:47 pm : link
... there’s a subjective element related to the Giants’ views of the 2021 and 2022 drafts. Clearly, they expect 2022 picks to deliver more predictable value ((on average and over time) than analogous picks this year. That makes some sense, for reasons we have discussed elsewhere.

Ironically, the 2021 class might produce more than its share of hidden gems, because of the extra uncertainty around this year’s prospects. But for earlier picks, 2022 seems a good basket to put one’s eggs; and the Giants were apparently not the only team with that view. The 2022 QB crop might be thin, but otherwise the class should be strong.
Yes  
Bavaro_the_Mafioso : 5/4/2021 6:52 pm : link
Agree with most of the comments. I despise DG but objectively, this was a great move.
Yup - great move  
kash94 : 5/4/2021 6:59 pm : link
just look at what the Jets traded to move up.

Since the last CBA in 2011, there have been 16 trade-ups in the first round for a QB.

2021 - CHI traded a first, fourth, and fifth to move 20 to 11
2020 - GB traded a fourth to move 30 to 26
2018 - NYJ traded three seconds to move 6 to 3
2018 - BUF traded two seconds to move 12 to 7
2018 - ARI traded a third and a fifth to move 15 to 10
2018 - BAL traded a second and a fourth to move up 52 to 32
2017 - CHI traded a second and two thirds to move 3 to 2
2017 - HOU traded a first to move 27 to 12
2017 - LAR traded two firsts, two seconds, and two thirds to move 15 to 1
2016 - PHI traded a first, second, third, and fourth to move 8 to 2
2016 - DEN traded a third rounder to move up 31 to 26
2014 - CLE traded a third rounder to move up 26 to 22
2014 - MIN traded a fourth rounder to move up 40 to 32
2012 - WAS traded two firsts and a second to move up 6 to 2
2011 - JAC traded a second rounder to move up 16 to 10

Off the above, seems like the Jacksonville trade in 2011, the Houston trade in 2017, the Arizona deal in 2018, and the Buffalo trade in 2018 are most comparable. Based off of that, seems solid.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 5/4/2021 7:02 pm : link
Yes.
RE: Yup - great move  
kash94 : 5/4/2021 7:02 pm : link
In comment 15253851 kash94 said:
Quote:
just look at what the Jets traded to move up.

Since the last CBA in 2011, there have been 16 trade-ups in the first round for a QB.

2021 - CHI traded a first, fourth, and fifth to move 20 to 11
2020 - GB traded a fourth to move 30 to 26
2018 - NYJ traded three seconds to move 6 to 3
2018 - BUF traded two seconds to move 12 to 7
2018 - ARI traded a third and a fifth to move 15 to 10
2018 - BAL traded a second and a fourth to move up 52 to 32
2017 - CHI traded a second and two thirds to move 3 to 2
2017 - HOU traded a first to move 27 to 12
2017 - LAR traded two firsts, two seconds, and two thirds to move 15 to 1
2016 - PHI traded a first, second, third, and fourth to move 8 to 2
2016 - DEN traded a third rounder to move up 31 to 26
2014 - CLE traded a third rounder to move up 26 to 22
2014 - MIN traded a fourth rounder to move up 40 to 32
2012 - WAS traded two firsts and a second to move up 6 to 2
2011 - JAC traded a second rounder to move up 16 to 10

Off the above, seems like the Jacksonville trade in 2011, the Houston trade in 2017, the Arizona deal in 2018, and the Buffalo trade in 2018 are most comparable. Based off of that, seems solid.


Forgot the SF trade this past year. Two firsts and a third to move 12 to 3.

In short, there have only been a handful of deals even involving future firsts! And those were for much higher draft picks than #11

2021 - CHI traded a first, a fourth, and a fifth to move 20 to 11
2021 - SF traded two firsts, and a third to move 12 to 3
2017 - LAR traded two firsts, two seconds, and two thirds to move 15 to 1
2016 - PHI traded a first, second, third, and fourth to move 8 to 2
2012 - WAS traded two firsts and a second to move up 6 to 2
It was a great trade..  
Sean : 5/4/2021 7:05 pm : link
As was moving down 8 slots in the 2nd to net another 3rd next year.
RE: Yeah it was good  
giantBCP : 5/4/2021 7:09 pm : link
In comment 15253786 Leg of Theismann said:
Quote:
See Trade Value Chart linked below. I think you count the future year pick as 50% of the value.


Future first round picks aren’t devalued anywhere close to 50%. The linked chart has them devalued at 20%, and has us crushing the draft trades with value.
Link - ( New Window )
Not As Great as People Think  
Samiam : 5/4/2021 7:25 pm : link
For one, you cannot calculate in the trade where you think Chicago will finish. Nobody knows and now they think they have a QB. They were a decent team with a bad QB so how much worse will Fields or Dalton be from Trubisky. Second, all they’ve given up now is a 5th. By the time they have to pay the 1st and the 4th, Fields will have a years worth of experience and with the very good receivers they have, they may hit the motherlode. I thought the same thing when the Giants traded for Eli. You get him for a whole year without paying much. Third, I don’t know where I read this but I saw something that said words to the effect that a future draft pick is worth 1 round less than the current year.

That said, it’s a great trade in that the Giants did not panic when the player they allegedly wanted was taken in the way it was and it was the f..ing Eagles. And, many here, myself included, thought that Gettleman would never make the trade down. My opinion, though, is that Judge either forced the issue or now holds the power which to me would be the greatest part of the trade.
I’m trying to think of a better GM move in Giants history  
JohnB : 5/4/2021 7:28 pm : link
My quick list:

Drafting LT
Eli trade
‘07 draft
Ottis Anderson signing
Drafting Simms

DG did great with the hand he was dealt

Yes they got good value  
blueblood : 5/4/2021 7:28 pm : link
people thinking they could hold the Bears hostage by demanding more to get Fields are delusional. Its a narrative I have heard twice on BBKL and it is simply WRONG. The Giants got good value for where the pick is .
Discounting Of Future Picks  
Trainmaster : 5/4/2021 7:47 pm : link
This seems a bit off to me. I understand most "trade value" discussions include this.

Discounting "trade value points" by an entire round is excessive. Back to the Trade Value Chart:

1st pick round 1: 3000 pts
16th pick round 1: 1000 pts
32nd pick round 1: 590 pts

1st pick round 2: 580 pts
16th pick round 2: 420 pts
32nd pick round 2: 270 pts


The Giants traded 2021 pick #11, 1250 pts, to the Bears for:

2021 pick #20, 850 pts, 2021 pick #164, 24 pts and

2022 pick #1 - #32, and 2022 pick #106 - #144


So the Giant received 874 pts from the Bears for the 2021 picks. The range of value of the 2022 picks is virtually entirely based on the 1st rounder, at least in terms of points.

It seems like it would be reasonable to assume a "mid round value" for future picks, rather than discount by an entire round.

If so, the 2022 1st rounder is worth 1000 pts, given the Giants about 1875 pts received for 1250 pts given up.

Chicago's 2021 2nd rounder #58 was worth 380 pts. Their 3rd rounder was worth 175 pts.

The other trade options discussed pre-draft was Chicago's 2021 1st, 2nd and 3rd. So 850 + 380 + 175 = 1405 pts.

The Giants likely got about 1850 pts (if Chicago finishes in the middle of the pack in 2022).

So yes, the Giants did get enough from the Bears.

Draft Tek NFL Trade Value Chart - 2021 - ( New Window )
Yes but the Rodgers situation devalus the pick a little.  
FStubbs : 5/4/2021 7:57 pm : link
Probably not a top 5 pick now.
RE: I don’t know how to calculate  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/4/2021 8:08 pm : link
In comment 15253749 cjac said:
Quote:
That value. But to me I feel in the past the Giants would have panicked and picked Toney without getting next years 1 and 4.

So as much as I wanted Smith, I was thrilled with what we did.

If that's a serious question, the answer is that you calculate future picks in the middle of the round (so pick 16.5), discounted one round per year.

Some will say that future first round picks shouldn't be discounted at the same rate, but in terms of the typical/historical trade calculus, they are.
RE: Yes but the Rodgers situation devalus the pick a little.  
GFAN52 : 5/4/2021 8:26 pm : link
In comment 15253938 FStubbs said:
Quote:
Probably not a top 5 pick now.


Whether Rodgers stays or plays in GB wouldn't be the main reason for a top 5 pick. They have 15 other games on their schedule that have to be played.
...  
ryanmkeane : 5/4/2021 8:41 pm : link
a 1st and 4th in next year's draft, to move down and still get a targeted player once your main targets were gone, is excellent value. When the trade was first announced, I was thinking something like 2nd and 4th in the 2021 draft
A couple bottles of 18 year old Macallan  
Jimmy Googs : 5/4/2021 8:56 pm : link
would have made it better...
RE: Yup - great move  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/4/2021 9:14 pm : link
In comment 15253851 kash94 said:
Quote:
just look at what the Jets traded to move up.

Since the last CBA in 2011, there have been 16 trade-ups in the first round for a QB.

2021 - CHI traded a first, fourth, and fifth to move 20 to 11
2020 - GB traded a fourth to move 30 to 26
2018 - NYJ traded three seconds to move 6 to 3
2018 - BUF traded two seconds to move 12 to 7
2018 - ARI traded a third and a fifth to move 15 to 10
2018 - BAL traded a second and a fourth to move up 52 to 32
2017 - CHI traded a second and two thirds to move 3 to 2
2017 - HOU traded a first to move 27 to 12
2017 - LAR traded two firsts, two seconds, and two thirds to move 15 to 1
2016 - PHI traded a first, second, third, and fourth to move 8 to 2
2016 - DEN traded a third rounder to move up 31 to 26
2014 - CLE traded a third rounder to move up 26 to 22
2014 - MIN traded a fourth rounder to move up 40 to 32
2012 - WAS traded two firsts and a second to move up 6 to 2
2011 - JAC traded a second rounder to move up 16 to 10

Off the above, seems like the Jacksonville trade in 2011, the Houston trade in 2017, the Arizona deal in 2018, and the Buffalo trade in 2018 are most comparable. Based off of that, seems solid.

Those are all helpful data, but I'm not sure why anyone limits it to trades that result in a QB choice. The trade up into a draft slot is/should be the same value no matter who the other team chooses because they don't make that choice until they've acquired the pick.

The fact that the team trading up was doing so for a QB may have informed their own negotiating position, but that may not have always been privy to the team trading down. IMO, we should be looking at all trade-down scenarios for comparison, not just those that resulted in a QB being selected.

Obviously that's going to result in a comparison that's even MORE favorable for the Giants, so I'm not saying this for any reason other than logical consistency.
Bears will  
SleepyOwl : 5/4/2021 9:32 pm : link
Be awful this year... they are old and released Kyle Fuller... they are 1 injury away on defense to either Mack, Trevathan, or Hicks (all over 30) from being a 5 win team.
I think we should get the Bears on the  
Bill in UT : 5/4/2021 9:53 pm : link
phone and renegotiate the deal. Get a couple more picks out of them
Houston gave up a 1st  
UConn4523 : 5/4/2021 9:55 pm : link
to move up 15 slots. Crazy how much we got colored to that.
Compared  
UConn4523 : 5/4/2021 9:56 pm : link
*
Even if the Giants  
Joe Beckwith : 5/4/2021 10:29 pm : link
lose the NFC Championship game to the SB Champ Chicago Bears, the picks are 30 & 32, at the WORST.
A 16 and 25, is a 16 and 25.
A more likely is a 10 and 20, especially if we beat the Bears and AR plays for GB to help make the 10 a 10.

And there’s still the Bears 115-120, along with our, 130-ish pick.

Bottom line: DG did well, and the Giants will have 2 opportunities, if necessary, to draft 1 or 2 of the top 6 OL.
RE: Yes  
barens : 5/4/2021 11:36 pm : link
In comment 15253763 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
And you have to consider that next years draft will have more talent.


I don’t get this statement. How is this true?
RE: RE: Yes  
blueblood : 5/4/2021 11:59 pm : link
In comment 15254171 barens said:
Quote:
In comment 15253763 ZogZerg said:


Quote:


And you have to consider that next years draft will have more talent.



I don’t get this statement. How is this true?


Its potentially true because the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility to players, so many players did not declare this year so the talent pool is potentially richer next year.
RE: According to Vegas  
short lease : 5/5/2021 3:11 am : link
In comment 15253767 Stan in LA said:
Quote:
Giants will get a top 10 pick from Bears. Link - ( New Window )


According to separate articles that I read ... the Bears lost both starting tackles on the OL this off-season.

Their OL might be in shambles this season ... cha-ching.
RE: RE: Yes  
short lease : 5/5/2021 3:15 am : link
In comment 15254171 barens said:
Quote:
In comment 15253763 ZogZerg said:


Quote:


And you have to consider that next years draft will have more talent.



I don’t get this statement. How is this true?


"This [2021] draft right now ... you have more unknowns than you can shake a stick at. You have kids that didn't play this year. You have a lot of incomplete medical information. It's really kind of an odd draft class. It's an odd year," Gettleman said. "The NCAA allowed all those players to get another year and a ton of them did. One of the SEC schools, they had 13 kids decide to go back and play next year, 13 kids that could have been in this draft. That was pretty heavy throughout the Power 5 conferences.

"We really have a feeling that next year's draft is going to be really strong, and [adding 2022 draft picks] just gives you options."






Link - ( New Window )
We got fair value  
SGMen : 5/5/2021 7:02 am : link
I mean, could we have gotten a 7th thrown in next year or this year or whatever, perhaps, but we got fair value.

The "KEY" is next year's #1. If the Bears offense remains horrid and I believe it will then we have a shot at a Top 15 pick.
RE: RE: RE: Yes  
barens : 5/5/2021 7:32 am : link
In comment 15254207 short lease said:
Quote:
In comment 15254171 barens said:


Quote:


In comment 15253763 ZogZerg said:


Quote:


And you have to consider that next years draft will have more talent.



I don’t get this statement. How is this true?



"This [2021] draft right now ... you have more unknowns than you can shake a stick at. You have kids that didn't play this year. You have a lot of incomplete medical information. It's really kind of an odd draft class. It's an odd year," Gettleman said. "The NCAA allowed all those players to get another year and a ton of them did. One of the SEC schools, they had 13 kids decide to go back and play next year, 13 kids that could have been in this draft. That was pretty heavy throughout the Power 5 conferences.

"We really have a feeling that next year's draft is going to be really strong, and [adding 2022 draft picks] just gives you options."



Link - ( New Window )


I get that, but that doesn’t automatically make it a better draft. There were plenty of underclass en this year, and the qb crop, for one, does not look good in 2022. I just think it’s way too early to make a statement like that, especially when the 2021 seemed to be loaded with 1st round talent.

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