NFT: Should Aaron Hicks switch to hitting right handed only?

with the Stadium short porch.

Some of Hicks most impactful at-bats have been while left-handed.

not in the last couple of years.
I am aware of the short porch, but if a player
is consistently flailing from one side of the plate?

Hicks is a ton better from the right side, so saying he's consistently flailing is just a bad take. His splits are only a little better.

He has a very similar OBP from either side, so in that case, taking advantage of the porch is a big factor.

also, it is pretty damn hard to go to one side after switch hitting for a career. Very few guys have succeeded doing it, and you certainly don't want to see it happen in season.

In comment 15256234 Carson53 said:

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not in the last couple of years. I am aware of the short porch, but if a player is consistently flailing from one side of the plate?

Maybe this season and last. In 2019 he hit 45 points higher from the right side but his OBP, slugging and OPS were all higher from the left side. In 2018 his average was higher from the left side, along with OBP and OPS.
However, it's not out of line to wonder if the Tommy John surgery has hurt him from the left side.

You can also trust your eyes as well, and I do.
Anybody that thinks he hasn't been flailing from the left side of the plate for awhile, don't know what to tell folks.
His mechanics are not very good from the left side of the plate.
I am also not suggesting he switch right away,
but at some point, it might help his career.
Lets face it, they are stuck with him another
5 years around here.

341 million doesn't buy much these days.

act like Hicks is terrible? Not even with this OP as much as people I talk with. I think he's fine. Gave up nothing to get him, and he's got a long term deal but it's relatively cheap. Good defender. Good OBP. Decent power and run production. One of the few (switch) LH power hitters in the lineup. Let him do his thing.

In comment 15256349 djm said:

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act like Hicks is terrible? Not even with this OP as much as people I talk with. I think he's fine. Gave up nothing to get him, and he's got a long term deal but it's relatively cheap. Good defender. Good OBP. Decent power and run production. One of the few (switch) LH power hitters in the lineup. Let him do his thing.

Because Hicks started the season as the #3 hitter and is hitting .177. He is also on the books for four more seasons at $10 million per season so he is not cheap or good at this point.

In comment 15256349 djm said:

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act like Hicks is terrible? Not even with this OP as much as people I talk with. I think he's fine. Gave up nothing to get him, and he's got a long term deal but it's relatively cheap. Good defender. Good OBP. Decent power and run production. One of the few (switch) LH power hitters in the lineup. Let him do his thing.

Which is to look for walks and then flail away when they are not forthcoming.

He's a lifetime .232 hitter with a lifetime OBP of .330 and a lifetime OPS of .729 BFD. He's made it over 100 games twice in 9 years. Yeah, when he plays, he's a good defensive player. Yawn. There was a reason the Twins cut him loose at age 25.

He got stupidly overpaid. We've got to stop thinking that just because a player puts on the pinstripe he is magically transformed into greatness.

In comment 15256343 Stan in LA said:

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341 million doesn't buy much these days.

.

Does he play for the Yanks? The answer is no, so I don't
really care that he is struggling. I don't think he will be struggling for that long, too much talent there.

looks like their flailing. He provides a ton of value when he's locked in on the left side so I'm willing to wait that out.

What's their benchmark for a consistently good product? Why did the Twins let David Ortiz go at age 26?

Among CFers Hicks ranks 7th in terms of annual contract
Among all batters he ranks 66th
Among all players he ranks 107th

Stop making it out to be some albatross contract - he's AAV is fine.

In comment 15256405 UConn4523 said:

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What's their benchmark for a consistently good product? Why did the Twins let David Ortiz go at age 26?

Because he was a skinny guy named David Arias.....

has affected him. This is a guy that threw a ball 105.5 mph and was one of the strongest if not the strongest arm in all of MLB. Now he is 88 mph, not that he always threw over 100, but that throw the other night in Baltimore was badly off line, a big looper and not close to getting the runner.

His swing on both sides is much too complex, with too many moving parts. When he gets the timing locked in, he looks impressive as a hitter. However, if he misses games as a result of an injury, he then has to start over, and his timing sucks all over again. That often also applies at the start of seasons. I am not enough of an aficionado to know what he needs to do about that, but I know what I see: elbows going one way, shoulders another, hips another, and legs another, and then magically when he gets his timing, they all seem to coordinate.
So, he loses his timing far too often, so that the likelihood of it all coming together for most of a season just isn't very good. And thus, taken across the arc of an entire season HE isn't very good. I have no idea what he needs to do to simplify, but it seems clear that with him being a switch-hitter, he needs to make that complex swing work on both sides, and he doesn't seem able to do that. I don't think that the odds of him being a quality hitter over the long term are very high.

he has a .195 BABIP this season which is incredibly unlucky. He usually hovers in the .255-.290 range. Not making good contact will affect it, but when you see an outlier like that, the expectation is that even if nothing changes in his approach, his BABIP will return to the mean and his production will increase. The inverse is true for when you have players with absurdly high BABIP earlier in the season.

As for his handedness, I think that he is just having an awful season from the left side of the plate this year, but I disagree strongly that he should make a switch. If you look through his career, while he has been a little better overall from that side of the plate, his performance fluctuates from year to year.
in fact, 2017 was the last season where his wRC+ (a better version of OPS) was higher as a Righty.

his wRC+, notated as a Lefty vs RHP, and as a Righty vs. LHP
...........L....R
2021: 42, 164
2020: 123, 123
2019: 114, 77
2018: 133, 117
2017: 120, 141
2016: 87, 25
2015: 80, 138

If you break down this season, you'll notice that he has had no power as a lefty this year. He isn't driving the ball, but he has also been incredibly unlucky from a BABIP perspective (and given that he's only had 79 plate appearances so far, it's still a relatively small sample). He has also drawn walks nearly double the rate, and has fewer strikeouts by a significant amount.

2021 as a Lefty vs RHP, as a Righty vs. LHP
K: 21.5%, 29%
BB: 11.4%, 6.5%
ISO: .075, .345
BABIP: .160 (career .259), .294 (career .284)
wRC+: 42, 164

what's he done as a YANkee? Oh, that's right, he's been just fine. But that doesn't fit in here.

Like i said, he's a fine player. HE isn't Micky Mantle in center but he's an above average player at a premium position and he's an absolute bargain. Stop already.

we need 5 time all stars at every position to appease the snob nation of stupid ass yankee fans

In comment 15256378 Spirit of '86 said:

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In comment 15256349 djm said: Quote: act like Hicks is terrible? Not even with this OP as much as people I talk with. I think he's fine. Gave up nothing to get him, and he's got a long term deal but it's relatively cheap. Good defender. Good OBP. Decent power and run production. One of the few (switch) LH power hitters in the lineup. Let him do his thing. Because Hicks started the season as the #3 hitter and is hitting .177. He is also on the books for four more seasons at $10 million per season so he is not cheap or good at this point.

Hi, it's the month of May. Have we met?

he had an OBP of 372
2018 OBP of 366
2019 he slipped to 325 but his power numbers were better that year than any other year
2020 379 OBP

He's fine. He's not paid like a super star. He performs like an above avg center fielder. Compare him to the rest of the league, not just trout.

In comment 15256405 UConn4523 said:

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What's their benchmark for a consistently good product? Why did the Twins let David Ortiz go at age 26? Among CFers Hicks ranks 7th in terms of annual contract Among all batters he ranks 66th Among all players he ranks 107th Stop making it out to be some albatross contract - he's AAV is fine.

Pre juice Ortiz sucked. That's why he was released. Hicks is below average and on the books forever. Always nicked up an pretty much can't be relied upon. So yeah. Maybe they should extend him

They range from it's still early to the surgery affecting to whatever else. But, please, let's not pretend he is a very good player. Good may even be a stretch. He is a career .232 hitter with a career OBA of .330. Plus, he can't stay healthy. I'm not crying over $10M per year. I just wouldn't pay it to him.

you'll see the following

2020: 1.1 (54 games)
2019: 1.1 (59 games)
2018: 5.0 (137 games)
2017: 3.4 (88 games)
2016: -.2 (123 games)
2015: 2.0 (97 games)

As a reference point:

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For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart: Scrub...........0-1 WAR Role Player.....1-2 WAR Solid Starter...2-3 WAR Good Player.....3-4 WAR All-Star........4-5 WAR Superstar.......5-6 WAR MVP.............6+ WAR

WAR isn't gospel but it does a good job in accumulating a player's contribution all over the field. Over his career, he has been dead average at the plate (100 wRC+) but he is a plus fielder at a premium defensive position and he is a good baserunner.

From 2017-2020 he has been solid-to-AS level which was great given what he cost. He has made ~$27 million as a free agent with the Yankees (including this season), and produced 10.6 WAR (with this season to pay) and that includes Tommy JOhn and Covid season.

here is a good article on the price of free agents relative to WAR

Teams paid $8m / win above replacement last year. Yankees have gotten very good return on Hicks in that context
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/ - ( New Window )

In comment 15256948 LauderdaleMatty said:

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In comment 15256405 UConn4523 said: Quote: What's their benchmark for a consistently good product? Why did the Twins let David Ortiz go at age 26? Among CFers Hicks ranks 7th in terms of annual contract Among all batters he ranks 66th Among all players he ranks 107th Stop making it out to be some albatross contract - he's AAV is fine. Pre juice Ortiz sucked. That's why he was released. Hicks is below average and on the books forever. Always nicked up an pretty much can't be relied upon. So yeah. Maybe they should extend him

My comment was a bit tongue in cheek, it was mainly to illustrate that using an example of a typically average to below average franchise not extending a player doesn’t actually mean shit.

In comment 15257697 PaulBlakeTSU said:

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you'll see the following 2020: 1.1 (54 games) 2019: 1.1 (59 games) 2018: 5.0 (137 games) 2017: 3.4 (88 games) 2016: -.2 (123 games) 2015: 2.0 (97 games) As a reference point: Quote: For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart: Scrub...........0-1 WAR Role Player.....1-2 WAR Solid Starter...2-3 WAR Good Player.....3-4 WAR All-Star........4-5 WAR Superstar.......5-6 WAR MVP.............6+ WAR WAR isn't gospel but it does a good job in accumulating a player's contribution all over the field. Over his career, he has been dead average at the plate (100 wRC+) but he is a plus fielder at a premium defensive position and he is a good baserunner. From 2017-2020 he has been solid-to-AS level which was great given what he cost. He has made ~$27 million as a free agent with the Yankees (including this season), and produced 10.6 WAR (with this season to pay) and that includes Tommy JOhn and Covid season.

2017-2020? Out of that, the only season that was remotely AS level was 2018. 2017 was too abridged at 55 games. The rest are mediocre to below.

In comment 15256864 djm said:

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we need 5 time all stars at every position to appease the snob nation of stupid ass yankee fans

We don't need an all star at every position. The problem is, he has been below average and/or not healthy since 2018. Yesterday notwithstanding, he is a black hole in the lineup. He is barely hitting above .200 and his OBA is below .300. He is not even a good player right now. He is terrible. The "production" from him this year makes any salary look bad.

He was a less than mediocre part time player in Minny with mediocre power. He was a completely different player in Boston and it had nothing to do with change of location or more playing time. The MF was on steroids for likely his entire tenure in Boston. For some strange reason the media chooses to ignore this.

128 wRC+ with plus defense at an important defensive position with good base running.

2019 he was solid a very good pace but hurt his elbow

Much of his bad OBA this year is due to his low BABIP as I've proscribed in detail earlier. But he's already creeping up to an 89 wRC+ despite how unlucky his balls in play have been as a lefty this year.

I'm willing to bet that his production from now until the end of the year will be better than it was from opening day until now.

On the whole, he has been a great value.

In comment 15257729 Matt M. said:

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He was a less than mediocre part time player in Minny with mediocre power. He was a completely different player in Boston and it had nothing to do with change of location or more playing time. The MF was on steroids for likely his entire tenure in Boston. For some strange reason the media chooses to ignore this.

Nothing, I already explained why I brought it up. But this notion that Arron Hicks stinks because "even Minnesota didn't want him" is ridiculous. There's nothing they do that I'd wish the Yankees would emulate.

In comment 15257801 UConn4523 said:

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In comment 15257729 Matt M. said: Quote: He was a less than mediocre part time player in Minny with mediocre power. He was a completely different player in Boston and it had nothing to do with change of location or more playing time. The MF was on steroids for likely his entire tenure in Boston. For some strange reason the media chooses to ignore this. Nothing, I already explained why I brought it up. But this notion that Arron Hicks stinks because "even Minnesota didn't want him" is ridiculous. There's nothing they do that I'd wish the Yankees would emulate.

Agree on that. Plus, Minny doesn't want to keep young guys about to come into their own because it might cost them some money.