The selection of 2 RBs (Najee Harris and Travis Etienne) and 5 WRs (Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman) continues a trend that I posted about several weeks ago. That is, the continued NFL devaluation of RBs and the increased valuation of WRs.
No doubt, each Draft has its own positional strengths and weaknesses. But the selection of just 2 RBs and 5 WRs fits into the data pattern I posted several weeks ago. Below, in 7-year chunks, are the average number of RBs taken in the first round for the years:
1979 - 1985: 4.3**
1986 - 1992: 4.0
1993 - 1999: 3.0
2000 - 2006: 3.1
2007 - 2013: 2.6
2014 - 2020: 1.4
**To be read: There was an average of 4.3 running backs taken in Round One per Draft Year for the 7-Year period 1979 - 1985.
And here is the same data for the wide receiver position:
1979 - 1985: 2.6**
1986 - 1992: 3.0
1993 - 1999: 3.6
2000 - 2006: 4.4
2007 - 2013: 3.3
2014 - 2020: 4.0
**To be read: There was an average of 2.6 wide receivers taken in Round One per Draft Year for the 7-Year period 1979 - 1985.
(As an aside, I noted last time that the NFL rules to allow offensive lineman to open their hands and extend their arms, as well as the prohibition of hitting a WR beyond 5 yards were implemented at the beginning of the 1978 season. That's one season before the data set above.
My best guess is that it took the NFL a few years to appreciate how these rule changes opened up the passing game.)
How much of this trend is a function of more receivers being developed at the high school level compared to running backs?
How much of this trend is a function of more receivers being developed at the high school level compared to running backs?
Most likely more from the NFL rule changes than what's going on in the High Schools.
How much of this trend is a function of more receivers being developed at the high school level compared to running backs?
Ahhh... you make an interesting point about the development of wide receivers at an early age. Could be a factor, but my assumption is that the NFL rule changes regarding pass blocking and allowing receivers to run free may be even a bigger factor. Maybe the NFL conversion from a running-league to a passing-league filtered down to the college and high school levels?
Quote:
The passing game has become much more dominant in high school football than it was just 10 years ago. The High School I graduated from ran wishbone from the 1950’s up until 2009. In 2010 their base formation became 10 personnel. In one year they went from having 3 starters at the running back position to just one.
How much of this trend is a function of more receivers being developed at the high school level compared to running backs?
Ahhh... you make an interesting point about the development of wide receivers at an early age. Could be a factor, but my assumption is that the NFL rule changes regarding pass blocking and allowing receivers to run free may be even a bigger factor. Maybe the NFL conversion from a running-league to a passing-league filtered down to the college and high school levels?
That would be my guess as well. Once the NFL rules changed it caused a trickle down effect. Perhaps, if I was a research analyst for an analytics firm I’d chart the amount of receivers and rb’s placed into the Rivals top 200 and test the correlation but... not my day job, lol